OHL poised to lose a TON of talent to USHL/BCHL, CHL is sweating bullets.

[Bonin21]

Hasn't been blue collar for a while now bud.

Hockey hasn't been blue collar for at least like 20 years...

 

[Corso]

Hockey hasn't been blue collar for at least like 20 years...

And that has really hurt the smaller NCAA programs who once relied on blue collar rural kids. It seems that many of these wealthy parents of elite players want to steer their sons to elite/large college schools and that is now beginning to have an impact on the CHL as well.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Hasn't been blue collar for a while now bud.

Right. I was thinking more from the Canadian perspective though.

 

[kyle44]

’
No that’s a sidebar topic. Not many kids leave school after their age 18 season and if they do it’s usually not with the intent of playing in the AHL. After age 19 is more common for first round and well performing second round talent.

To respond to the originally quoted poster, I dont think it is necessarily a selling feature of going USHL/NCAA. The issue is the CHL agreement has caused NHL GMs to rush players. They are often more inclined to let a player develop against older, better competition in the NCAA; whereas they bring CHL players to the league too early because they want a higher level challenge for their players, sometimes to the detriment of these players. The ones in this category would be better suited playing AHL IMO.

 

[Corso]

I really wish I could ignore this poster but unfortunately they spam all the threads so can't. No this isn't abnormal a decent amount of kids always think the Junior A-NCAA path is better for them and for some it is. Some kids need a longer development path so college gives them a couple more years to mature before trying to turn pro. Most of these kids would end up depth players in the CHL and be done at 20 where if they go Junior A they can still be the top guys there then go to school until they're 24-25, longer runway. Even for the kids who start on the Junior A path a decent amount of them change their minds and end up in the CHL anyway. Both paths are good especially if you're not a top talent, it's on the kids/families/advisors to try and figure out what's best for them. Even with this supposed great demise of the CHL(could argue the Q is falling draft wise though) they still produce the majority of the talent for the NHL and it guarantees kids a paid for education while playing in the best developmental league. Most top kids will get a NCAA scholarship but there's still the risk of will they perform well enough to get a good school let alone a school. Even if they get a commit the school can pull it out from them where CHL is a guarantee albeit not quite the same level of education/level of play in Usports. No the tender system isn't needed it's actually a very dumb idea that would see a select few teams dominate every year just like in the NCAA. The current system creates parity and forces every team to have the best everything so they don't lose players. The same people are the delusional ones who think it's smart to let teenagers play in the AHL because they're "too good" for the CHL when the history of teenagers playing in the AHL is filled with a long list of busts with very few success stories and those are just the high picks who play there early. Should be common sense but doesn't seem that common for a certain group

Agree with much of what you wrote and we will get a better sense of the number of "defected" players within the next few days or so. I do disagree with your take on the tender system, however.

It has not produced an imbalance in the USHL (yes, the talent is very concentrated in the NCAA, making it an uneven unbalanced competitive development system), as teams are only allowed to tender two players and having to draft the rest. The OHL could adopt a one tender per team rule and that would go a long way in attracting and retaining the top talent.

The point is, in today's day and age, the top kids( and their agents) want to choose where to play.

As for the AHL, you are completely correct. Out of any given draft year, less than 5 players could step in and actually compete at that level for the entire year. Even at the age of 19, there are probably less than a couple of dozen players that would do well in the AHL.

 

[bcspragu]

Agree with much of what you wrote and we will get a better sense of the number of "defected" players within the next few days or so. I do disagree with your take on the tender system, however.

It has not produced an imbalance in the USHL (yes, the talent is very concentrated in the NCAA, making it an uneven unbalanced competitive development system), as teams are only allowed to tender two players and having to draft the rest. The OHL could adopt a one tender per team rule and that would go a long way in attracting and retaining the top talent.

The point is, in today's day and age, the top kids( and their agents) want to choose where to play.

As for the AHL, you are completely correct. Out of any given draft year, less than 5 players could step in and actually compete at that level for the entire year. Even at the age of 19, there are probably less than a couple of dozen players that would do well in the AHL.

Yeah the CHL needs a two round tender system put in place asap.

People who complain that it would cause an imbalance don’t realize it’s already happening behind the scenes. Players pick their spot every draft. This way it would just be in the open and teams could plan around it

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Yeah I'm sure everybody will be very sad to see hockey Canada get the karma they deserve and take a little bump down, think about the poor ogliarchs who can't make the game affordable for normal humans in the country!

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

The demographics of hockey are changing as well. It's not really a "blue collar" sport anymore.

Hasn't been for a long time.

 

[Bonin21]

And that has really hurt the smaller NCAA programs who once relied on blue collar rural kids. It seems that many of these wealthy parents of elite players want to steer their sons to elite/large college schools and that is now beginning to have an impact on the CHL as well.

I have never heard of the small schools relying on "blue collar rural kids" in my lifetime as a college hockey fan. Maybe in the 80s that was a thing?

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I have never heard of the small schools relying on "blue collar rural kids" in my lifetime as a college hockey fan. Maybe in the 80s that was a thing?

Outside of rural/remote Minnesota and parts of North Dakota & Wisconsin, very few stereotypical "rural" kids play hockey in the States. NCAA programs have grabbed tier 2 talents from rural places in Canada, specifically in Western Canada. Whether you consider these kids "blue collar" or not is your discretion.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Hockey still had a pretty strong working class component up through the 80s. Kids like Lemieux played on the church sponsored team. Probably wouldn’t have come up today as I don’t think the family was particularly affluent. Parent sacrifice was finding time to get kids to practice, not paying second mortgage in youth hockey related expenses. By the 90s, lots of prosperity amongst the baby boomer generation and an increasing trickle down effect amongst sporting culture kicked off an arms race. The earlier millennials (who I still wouldn’t say “working class” but more normal “upper middle class”) were lucky enough to be the last cohort that could get by without being extremely cost-prohibitive. The kids getting drafted today? Beyond the means of way too many families to ever be achievable.

 

[Donnie740]

This is a 100% bluff. These kids don’t want to end up in dumpster fires like Windsor or Niagara so they’ll pretending that the NCAA or BCJHL is an option.

Any player with pro aspirations would never go to a joke of a league like the BCJHL. That’s for kids who aren’t good enough to make the WHL.

NCAA is also clearly below the OHL in terms of overall level of play. The “free education” is irrelevant because the CHL provides scholarships. But let’s be honest - - many of these kids don’t even want to be in high school and have ZERO interest in post secondary school.

Years ago Chris Pronger declared that he was going to attend an NCAA school - - just like his brother. This spooked OHL teams from drafting him until Peterborough took him in the 6th round in one of the greatest steals in OHL draft history.

I asked him why he decided on the OHL instead of playing in the NCAA and he was very candid in saying the calibre of play was so much better. Pronger’s exact words to me: “I just had to get out of Stratford”.

 

[LeProspector]

This is a 100% bluff. These kids don’t want to end up in dumpster fires like Windsor or Niagara so they’ll pretending that the NCAA or BCJHL is an option.

Any player with pro aspirations would never go to a joke of a league like the BCJHL. That’s for kids who aren’t good enough to make the WHL.

NCAA is also clearly below the OHL in terms of overall level of play. The “free education” is irrelevant because the CHL provides scholarships. But let’s be honest - - many of these kids don’t even want to be in high school and have ZERO interest in post secondary school.

Years ago Chris Pronger declared that he was going to attend an NCAA school - - just like his brother. This spooked OHL teams from drafting him until Peterborough took him in the 6th round in one of the greatest steals in OHL draft history.

I asked him why he decided on the OHL instead of playing in the NCAA and he was very candid in saying the calibre of play was so much better. Pronger’s exact words to me: “I just had to get out of Stratford”.

Some of the kids, absolutely it’s a bluff.

 

[MeHateHe]

I guess you want to ignore facts and ignore how Owen Power, Adam Fantilli and Jaydeon Perron all went to the Steel. And I guess you forgot that Misa was tendered to the Steel before he was granted ES.

Won't quote all of that but I'll respond to this and jump off from there.

I didn't ignore anything. I said that times have changed and players are availing themselves of options they didn't have in the 80s and 90s, for example. The USHL is a viable option, and players and savvy agents are either setting up shop there or using it as a bargaining chip to get better arrangements for themselves in the CHL. That doesn't equal a "ton of talent" and leading to the "CHL sweating bullets."

It's way premature to know what impact the BCHL move will have on the overall development scene, because it's only a year old and there are so many more shoes to fall. I still don't understand how the Alberta clubs are going to compete while only drawing flies, and I'm not sure some of the current BC based clubs are going to thrive in a fight with the bigger dogs. PG got 800 to their last playoff game. Powell River doesn't draw well in the main, and the lower mainland clubs? Who knows. As I said, the 21 teams currently attached to that league will not be the same when we get to 2025-2026 for sure, and possibly as early as next year.

Moreover, it's not feasible for the BCHL to remain an outlaw league long-term. As much as the screw-you-Hockey-Canada rhetoric (based partly on an instinctual stick-it-to-the-man ethos) has flown around, there are too many benefits for both the federation and the league to have unity for that to become a permanent situation. At some point, Hockey Canada will bend a little, the BCHL will acquiese a little, and they'll hug it out.

And yeah, that's a good thing, because internal squabbling is bad for hockey in Canada, and a weakened federation means weaker national programs, poorer development options and all the rest.

And finally, I also said that the CHL needs to do some navel gazing about what it's doing to attract players. They remain stuck in a mindset that they're literally the only game in town, so they think that players will flock to them regardless. That's hardly surprising, because they treat their fanbases the same way.

Bottom line? The sky isn't falling on the CHL. Things have changed. Things always change.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

This is a 100% bluff. These kids don’t want to end up in dumpster fires like Windsor or Niagara so they’ll pretending that the NCAA or BCJHL is an option.

Any player with pro aspirations would never go to a joke of a league like the BCJHL. That’s for kids who aren’t good enough to make the WHL.

NCAA is also clearly below the OHL in terms of overall level of play. The “free education” is irrelevant because the CHL provides scholarships. But let’s be honest - - many of these kids don’t even want to be in high school and have ZERO interest in post secondary school.

Years ago Chris Pronger declared that he was going to attend an NCAA school - - just like his brother. This spooked OHL teams from drafting him until Peterborough took him in the 6th round in one of the greatest steals in OHL draft history.

I asked him why he decided on the OHL instead of playing in the NCAA and he was very candid in saying the calibre of play was so much better. Pronger’s exact words to me: “I just had to get out of Stratford”.

The top level of NCAA play is much better than the O. Lower tier NCAA is just shitty Tier 2 and Tier 3 junior players who've aged out of junior now playing for Atlantic Hockey, low tier CCHA & ECAC, and Independent teams. So I don't agree, but I don't disagree with your statement. Gotta have some nuance.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Chris Pronger played junior hockey 31 years ago. I think your data is a bit stale.

 

[MuckOG]

This is a 100% bluff. These kids don’t want to end up in dumpster fires like Windsor or Niagara so they’ll pretending that the NCAA or BCJHL is an option.

Any player with pro aspirations would never go to a joke of a league like the BCJHL. That’s for kids who aren’t good enough to make the WHL.

NCAA is also clearly below the OHL in terms of overall level of play. The “free education” is irrelevant because the CHL provides scholarships. But let’s be honest - - many of these kids don’t even want to be in high school and have ZERO interest in post secondary school.

Years ago Chris Pronger declared that he was going to attend an NCAA school - - just like his brother. This spooked OHL teams from drafting him until Peterborough took him in the 6th round in one of the greatest steals in OHL draft history.

I asked him why he decided on the OHL instead of playing in the NCAA and he was very candid in saying the calibre of play was so much better. Pronger’s exact words to me: “I just had to get out of Stratford”.

The average NCAA D1 team would destroy the average OHL team (or any CHL team).

NCAA D1 hockey is clearly ABOVE the CHL in terms of overall play. NCAA players are bigger, stronger, faster and more mature.

 

[bigdog16]

This is a 100% bluff. These kids don’t want to end up in dumpster fires like Windsor or Niagara so they’ll pretending that the NCAA or BCJHL is an option.

Any player with pro aspirations would never go to a joke of a league like the BCJHL. That’s for kids who aren’t good enough to make the WHL.

NCAA is also clearly below the OHL in terms of overall level of play. The “free education” is irrelevant because the CHL provides scholarships. But let’s be honest - - many of these kids don’t even want to be in high school and have ZERO interest in post secondary school.

Years ago Chris Pronger declared that he was going to attend an NCAA school - - just like his brother. This spooked OHL teams from drafting him until Peterborough took him in the 6th round in one of the greatest steals in OHL draft history.

I asked him why he decided on the OHL instead of playing in the NCAA and he was very candid in saying the calibre of play was so much better. Pronger’s exact words to me: “I just had to get out of Stratford”.

NCAA teams would absolutely wipe the floor against OHL teams. It wouldn't even be remotely close. This argument has been beaten to death. The overall age and strength of the NCAA kills the OHL.

Head to head you are talking about 10-0 games.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The top level of NCAA play is much better than the O. Lower tier NCAA is just shitty Tier 2 and Tier 3 junior players who've aged out of junior now playing for Atlantic Hockey, low tier CCHA & ECAC, and Independent teams. So I don't agree, but I don't disagree with your statement. Gotta have some nuance.

Yeah the cruddy teams are usually confined together. Not too different than football and basketball, with the occasional bottom feeder like Miami that acts as a punching bag/free win in good conferences.

 

[Donnie740]

The top level of NCAA play is much better than the O. Lower tier NCAA is just shitty Tier 2 and Tier 3 junior players who've aged out of junior now playing for Atlantic Hockey, low tier CCHA & ECAC, and Independent teams. So I don't agree, but I don't disagree with your statement. Gotta have some nuance.

How many players from the Frozen Four will be drafted this year or have already been drafted compared to the Memorial Cup?

 

[WarriorofTime]

How many players from the Frozen Four will be drafted this year or have already been drafted compared to the Memorial Cup?

Check BC roster. 13 draft picks in their lineup yesterday. Entire second line were first round picks.

 

[Donnie740]

Check BC roster. 13 draft picks in their lineup yesterday. Entire second line were first round picks.

Guys that are 23 or 24 years old and still playing college hockey are not NHL calibre talent.

 

[bigdog16]

Guys that are 23 or 24 years old and still playing college hockey are not NHL calibre talent.

Doesn't matter, the hockey is still better.

The ECHL isn't good hockey either and they would obliterate CHL teams.

 

[Donnie740]

Doesn't matter, the hockey is still better.

The ECHL isn't good hockey either and they would obliterate CHL teams.

As I explained, the overall talent level just isn’t there in the NCAA - - just like it isn’t there in the ECHL.

There’s a reason 23 and 24 year old guys are playing in the NCAA instead of the NHL or even the AHL.

Not. Good. Enough.

 

[WarriorofTime]

As I explained, the overall talent level just isn’t there in the NCAA - - just like it isn’t there in the ECHL.

There’s a reason 23 and 24 year old guys are playing in the NCAA instead of the NHL or even the AHL.

Not. Good. Enough.

As opposed to all the CHL overagers that disappear into USports and are never seen again? Did you check BC’s roster? It doesn’t want for NHL talent. Don’t be ignorant.