Off-Season Plan: Think like a Holland

[Bondurant]

Unless Holland is stupid, the title should read, think like an Illitch.

Make money, make the playoffs, put people in the stands.

Holland is the face of keeping to ownership happy. They give him the budget, he has to make the playoffs.

I'm convinced that's it. Otherwise Holland has brain damage and can't see this team going off cliff.

All teams operate with the same salary cap. I don't think Mr. I was cheap with the purse strings unless he was too vested in the Tigers. I place the diminished Wings at the feet of Holland. This is his mess. Had this occurred last year or the year prior and there was a tank for McEichel or Matthews he'd be a genius but he's clearly delusional about the quality of his team.

 

[Dotter]

All teams operate with the same salary cap. I don't think Mr. I was cheap with the purse strings unless he was too vested in the Tigers. I place the diminished Wings at the feet of Holland. This is his mess. Had this occurred last year or the year prior and there was a tank for McEichel or Matthews he'd be a genius but he's clearly delusional about the quality of his team.

From winning too much. No GM in the league is going to kill a 22+ year playoff streak just to randomly become bottom feeders and tank for 5+ years. That'd be utter ignorant. And no ownership would go for that absurdly. It's just foolish thinking.

 

[jkutswings]

From winning too much. No GM in the league is going to kill a 22+ year playoff streak just to randomly become bottom feeders and tank for 5+ years. That'd be utter ignorant. And no ownership would go for that absurdly. It's just foolish thinking.

But it wasn't an ON/OFF situation.

After 22 years, he had other options besides either blowing it up or patching holes with expensive band aids. You can make a trade here or there, or promote a kid for a reason besides an injury, or occasionally say no when retaining a role player means a 5-7 year contract.

And none of those options automatically mean you'll end the streak, let alone 'become a bottom feeder and tank for 5+ years'.

Holland chose the route that was at the extreme end of the spectrum for avoiding risk, at the detriment of both the ceiling of the roster's potential, and the difficulty of eventually rebuilding. (Not to mention that while it did result in extending the streak, it also resulted in a very weak roster once the playoffs began.) All that is on his legacy as well.

 

[Run the Jewels]

But it wasn't an ON/OFF situation.

After 22 years, he had other options besides either blowing it up or patching holes with expensive band aids. You can make a trade here or there, or promote a kid for a reason besides an injury, or occasionally say no when retaining a role player means a 5-7 year contract.

And none of those options automatically mean you'll end the streak, let alone 'become a bottom feeder and tank for 5+ years'.

Holland chose the route that was at the extreme end of the spectrum for avoiding risk, at the detriment of both the ceiling of the roster's potential, and the difficulty of eventually rebuilding. (Not to mention that while it did result in extending the streak, it also resulted in a very weak roster once the playoffs began.) All that is on his legacy as well.

I read an article on Hockey News or one of the big hockey sites where they said Holland's view on rebuilding is you only go that route if you go 5 straight years without making the playoffs. They didn't use an exact quote so I can't say for certain this is something Holland said. However this type of thinking is how you go decades without winning anything: you keep signing your marginal talent that has been developed through your lackluster drafting and development to crippling deals that eat up all your cap space. When eventually decide it's time to rebuild you're 10+ years into being a very mediocre team that continue to trend very badly to the point where they playoffs become a pipe dream. Then you decide it's time to rebuild. As Ken Holland loves to tell us it can take 10+ years once you decide to rebuild to have a competitive team.

My only real concern at this point is if Holland signs a new deal. If not it really make no difference what he thinks, unless the new GM is a yes man like Ryan Martin who will lean heavily on Holland and basically follow Ken Holland's grand plan. If we can sign a real GM from outside the organization who will be given full control odds are good things will quickly move from the current path of consistently becoming worse year over year to a plan where the team actually shows marginal improvement year over year. Baby steps.

So long as Holland is the guy calling the shots it's pretty clear he's gonna sign guys to awful contracts, drafting and development is likely to follow the same mediocre path it has for the past 15 years, and he will sign borderline UFAs to try to get back into the playoffs.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

But it wasn't an ON/OFF situation.

After 22 years, he had other options besides either blowing it up or patching holes with expensive band aids. You can make a trade here or there, or promote a kid for a reason besides an injury, or occasionally say no when retaining a role player means a 5-7 year contract.

And none of those options automatically mean you'll end the streak, let alone 'become a bottom feeder and tank for 5+ years'.

Holland chose the route that was at the extreme end of the spectrum for avoiding risk, at the detriment of both the ceiling of the roster's potential, and the difficulty of eventually rebuilding. (Not to mention that while it did result in extending the streak, it also resulted in a very weak roster once the playoffs began.) All that is on his legacy as well.

Exactly. These conversations quickly become binary but there are more options other than what Holland has done or completely blowing up the team.

This team has needed substantial changes for several seasons now and Holland has been too conservative to make them.

 

[Dotter]

I read an article on Hockey News or one of the big hockey sites where they said Holland's view on rebuilding is you only go that route if you go 5 straight years without making the playoffs. They didn't use an exact quote so I can't say for certain this is something Holland said. However this type of thinking is how you go decades without winning anything: you keep signing your marginal talent that has been developed through your lackluster drafting and development to crippling deals that eat up all your cap space. When eventually decide it's time to rebuild you're 10+ years into being a very mediocre team that continue to trend very badly to the point where they playoffs become a pipe dream. Then you decide it's time to rebuild. As Ken Holland loves to tell us it can take 10+ years once you decide to rebuild to have a competitive team.

My only real concern at this point is if Holland signs a new deal. If not it really make no difference what he thinks, unless the new GM is a yes man like Ryan Martin who will lean heavily on Holland and basically follow Ken Holland's grand plan. If we can sign a real GM from outside the organization who will be given full control odds are good things will quickly move from the current path of consistently becoming worse year over year to a plan where the team actually shows marginal improvement year over year. Baby steps.

So long as Holland is the guy calling the shots it's pretty clear he's gonna sign guys to awful contracts, drafting and development is likely to follow the same mediocre path it has for the past 15 years, and he will sign borderline UFAs to try to get back into the playoffs.

I'm not buying it. No professional sports team is going to throw away a 22+ year playoff streak in favor of a 5 to 10 year tank plan. I am 100% convinced that Mike Ilitch & Co ran the numbers and found no financial value throwing it all away.

I think being an armchair GM is easy when it's not your boss's money and agenda on the line. I also think it's easy for armchair GMs to benefit off the luxury of 20/20 vision while playing NHL17 on GM mode.

Ken Holland is already proving he isn't going to trade valuable assets to keep the streak alive, and also proved he is willing to trade assets for draft [many] picks to build for a better future. Just not in the sense some impatient people here want. Those same folks probably couldn't handle a 5 to 10+ year rebuild. I know I couldn't. I am personally not interested in that.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I'm not buying it. No professional sports team is going to throw away a 22+ year playoff streak in favor of a 5 to 10 year tank plan. I am 100% convinced that Mike Ilitch & Co ran the numbers and found no financial value throwing it all away.

I think being an armchair GM is easy when it's not your boss's money and agenda on the line. I also think it's easy for armchair GMs to benefit off the luxury of 20/20 vision while playing NHL17 on GM mode.

Ken Holland is already proving he isn't going to trade valuable assets to keep the streak alive, and also proved he is willing to trade assets for draft [many] picks to build for a better future. Just not in the sense some impatient people here want. Those same folks probably couldn't handle a 5 to 10+ year rebuild. I know I couldn't. I am personally not interested in that.

My family were fans when Gordie and Terrible Ted were running **** at Olympia. We were fans when John Ogrodnick was leading the Dead Things. We'll continue to be fans through thick and thin. We just don't want another 42 year drought. The Norris family was once every bit as successful as Ken Holland and in an insanely competitive era. When they sold the team to Mike Ilitch they had a 56 year drought and the Wings were one of the worst teams in the NHL for a very long time.

So there's history within this very franchise to tell you that being successful in the past doesn't guarantee you a damn thing, particularly when your talent is poor and your drafting is abysmal.

I'm confident I'll still be around regardless of what happens.

 

[jkutswings]

I'm not buying it. No professional sports team is going to throw away a 22+ year playoff streak in favor of a 5 to 10 year tank plan. I am 100% convinced that Mike Ilitch & Co ran the numbers and found no financial value throwing it all away.

I think being an armchair GM is easy when it's not your boss's money and agenda on the line. I also think it's easy for armchair GMs to benefit off the luxury of 20/20 vision while playing NHL17 on GM mode.

Ken Holland is already proving he isn't going to trade valuable assets to keep the streak alive, and also proved he is willing to trade assets for draft [many] picks to build for a better future. Just not in the sense some impatient people here want. Those same folks probably couldn't handle a 5 to 10+ year rebuild. I know I couldn't. I am personally not interested in that.

So you're saying that, a few years ago, trading Nyquist or Tatar for a decent defenseman would have been tanking? Or that letting a cheaper option replace Abdelkader or Helm would have been blowing it up? That's an interesting world you're living in.

Good front offices make all sorts of moves to improve the roster that are neither going all-in nor going scorched earth.

 

[Dotter]

So you're saying that, a few years ago, trading Nyquist or Tatar for a decent defenseman would have been tanking? Or that letting a cheaper option replace Abdelkader or Helm would have been blowing it up? That's an interesting world you're living in.

Good front offices make all sorts of moves to improve the roster that are neither going all-in nor going scorched earth.

Almost happened except Jets wanted Bogosian in return for Myers. Another opportunity was Jets decided not to trade Jacob Trouba.

And Nyquist and/or Tatar are not worth what Taylor Hall is worth.

Also, Abby was coming off 23 goals and 44 points. What hitting powerforward are you replacing him on the cheaper?

 

[HIFE]

From winning too much. No GM in the league is going to kill a 22+ year playoff streak just to randomly become bottom feeders and tank for 5+ years. That'd be utter ignorant. And no ownership would go for that absurdly. It's just foolish thinking.

A sharp minded and proactive GM with huge amount of willpower, courage, and most importantly foresight could. Not "tanking" but able to take a step back if need be to leap again to the top. What happened to the drive to be champions? It's perverse that a multi-billionaire and millionaire with that much security would still be ruled by the unholy dollar.

The Detroit Red Wings were once innovators and leaders on every front of the NHL. From Illich purchasing a private plane for his boys; bringing in defecting Russians; our scouting/drafting, tapping the European and specifically Swedish market; hiring an extremely successful GM (Devellano) and the greatest coach in the history of the game; building a team around elite defense and puck possession. Everything from the Wings breakouts, entries, and puck support was nothing short of elite.

For 25 years we've been copied and now surpassed. Unfortunately the brain-trust has grown complacent. The shine has long worn off and we're stuck with incapable and stale leadership that lacks vision or any clear direction. Do we have to get overtaken by Arizona and New Jersey to admit we need a drastic change of course?

On the hot-stove last night I saw the headlines "Ken Holland's future" by Friedman...my eyes widened! Then my heart sank. Holland said he has one year left on his contract. He's brought success to the team and feels he's the individual to bring greatness once again. Damn. I just don't have any faith in Holland or his team including Draper and Chelios. They've proven they don't care like these Canadian teams. There isn't the same drive for excellence like when we were the class of the league.

 

[iDangleDangle]

Almost happened except Jets wanted Bogosian in return for Myers. Another opportunity was Jets decided not to trade Jacob Trouba.

And Nyquist and/or Tatar are not worth what Taylor Hall is worth.

Also, Abby was coming off 23 goals and 44 points. What hitting powerforward are you replacing him on the cheaper?

More about realizing what a huge outlier that year was for Abby.

Grinders having career years in their late 20's/early 30's alongside elite players should always be looked at as peaks. They are rarely repeatable feats nor indicators you need to lock the player up to a long-term deal with a high cap hit. Despite some presedence in the league (Clarkson anyone), Holland went and gave Abby a lifetime sweeheart deal.

Still hate that contract with a passion, despite finding Gator to be a useful player.

 

[Run the Jewels]

More about realizing what a huge outlier that year was for Abby.

Grinders having career years in their late 20's/early 30's alongside elite players should always be looked at as peaks. They are rarely repeatable feats nor indicators you need to lock the player up to a long-term deal with a high cap hit. Despite some presedence in the league (Clarkson anyone), Holland went and gave Abby a lifetime sweeheart deal.

Still hate that contract with a passion, despite finding Gator to be a useful player.

It's funny how some people can rip on the Clarkson deal Toronto handed out yet defend the Abdelkader deal, which not quite on the same level of awful as the Clarkson deal, but still pretty terrible. Some people will defend every single thing Ken Holland does.

 

[theYman]

How did we overlook Eric Staal last year in the off-season? Guy has had a huge comeback with Minnesota this year. Woulda taken him over Nielsen for the same contract.

 

[Winger98]

How did we overlook Eric Staal last year in the off-season? Guy has had a huge comeback with Minnesota this year. Woulda taken him over Nielsen for the same contract.

He looked bad with Carolina most of the year and didn't look appreciably better with NYR. Also, the guy is rocking the second highest shooting percentage of his career, and is way higher than pretty much every other season.

 

[lomekian]

A sharp minded and proactive GM with huge amount of willpower, courage, and most importantly foresight could. Not "tanking" but able to take a step back if need be to leap again to the top. What happened to the drive to be champions? It's perverse that a multi-billionaire and millionaire with that much security would still be ruled by the unholy dollar.

While I think Dotter is in a class of his/her own in this debate, I think anyone denying the point made about the streak and its value over a tank to this franchise is not only showing a lack of understanding of how pretty much every sports team in the world works, but frankly is living in cloud cuckoo land.

I know you mention "huge amount of willpower, courage, and most importantly foresight", but you are also missing 'a willingness to directly defy their employers' and 'the balls to do what no-one has ever done before',

By all means criticise draft picks, trades and FA signings, but to criticise a GM for refusing to tank from a position of a near all time record play-off streak is off the charts unfair. I can't think of anyone in any sport that has done what you are suggesting Holland should have done. 5 more years, even at mediocrity would have not only surpassed the record, but would have set one unlikely to ever be broken given the cap era.

18 teams have won the Stanley Cup. Only 5 have surpassed 20 consecutive playoff seasons. Lord Stanley may be the aim, but for Franchises, a 25 year streak (particularly when enhanced by 4 cup wins and 2 defeats) is much harder to achieve, and in isolation compared to 1 cup is the greater achievement (especially for a franchise who already is well endowed with cup wins). And that's long before we get on to the financial implications.

Also, as we've all heard recently, the streak meant a lot to the franchise, its ownership, management, staff, player etc.

So you are literally asking the GM to deliberately reject the opportunity to set a new benchmark for excellence, while opposing almost every single person he works with along with a century or more of accepted wisdom.

That hardly seems fair.

Now if he starts trading away more 1st rounders and signing more bad contracts now the streak is over, he deserves all the criticism he gets.

Would I have signed Stephen Weiss or traded for KFQ? No. But only because I think they were specific failures that I didn't like at the time. Had the same deals been made for players I liked more, i would have supported both fully

 

[Reddwit]

How did we overlook Eric Staal last year in the off-season? Guy has had a huge comeback with Minnesota this year. Woulda taken him over Nielsen for the same contract.

During the summer, most people would've only taken Staal over Nielsen if they knew the respective contracts they would ultimately sign.

He looked bad with Carolina most of the year and didn't look appreciably better with NYR. Also, the guy is rocking the second highest shooting percentage of his career, and is way higher than pretty much every other season.

Exactly. I'm going to fault Holland all day long for the stupid contract he gave Nielsen, but I don't fault him for choosing to target Nielsen over Staal after the past few seasons. Staal clearly just needed to hit the re-set button but that wasn't apparent during the bulk of the past few seasons nor in his time with NYR.

 

[theYman]

He looked bad with Carolina most of the year and didn't look appreciably better with NYR. Also, the guy is rocking the second highest shooting percentage of his career, and is way higher than pretty much every other season.

Yeah I hear that. But to think Nielsen is a better player than Staal is ridiculous. Well we signed Vanek when he looked bad with Minnesota.

 

[Bench]

How did we overlook Eric Staal last year in the off-season?

I don't think he was overlooked, as much as he picked another team. Staal had a rumored 6 teams chasing him, and it's doubtful the Wings didn't at least kick the tires. Staal was impressed with his visit to Minnesota, he also knew the area from childhood, and he had talks with Parise in the off-season. Yes, that's right, Parise snatches away another free agent.

The St. Paul papers had him in print glowing about his talks before free agency hit, so it felt like a done deal. His agent 2 days before free agency: "There’s mutual interest and consideration that there is a fit with Minnesota. We’ve had conversation and I would also suggest Eric was extremely impressed."

Funny enough, the same publication had this to say the day before free agency:
"Frans Nielsen could be too expensive for the Wild. Sam Gagner would be a cheap option. Speedy Darren Helm might not be a top-two center."

Too expesive. Not a top-two center. Go get um, Kenny! Ha, anyway...
Staal has a ton of support and help on the Wild. He wouldn't look this good on the Wings. It was a great fit for him and the team.

 

[Syckle78]

I'm not buying it. No professional sports team is going to throw away a 22+ year playoff streak in favor of a 5 to 10 year tank plan. I am 100% convinced that Mike Ilitch & Co ran the numbers and found no financial value throwing it all away.

I think being an armchair GM is easy when it's not your boss's money and agenda on the line. I also think it's easy for armchair GMs to benefit off the luxury of 20/20 vision while playing NHL17 on GM mode.

Ken Holland is already proving he isn't going to trade valuable assets to keep the streak alive, and also proved he is willing to trade assets for draft [many] picks to build for a better future. Just not in the sense some impatient people here want. Those same folks probably couldn't handle a 5 to 10+ year rebuild. I know I couldn't. I am personally not interested in that.

Most of us are lions and tigers fans. We can handle losing, thank you very much. So what it boils down to is you can't handle following a team through a losing a period. Well either buckle up or jump on a bandwagon because the options are either long rough period or longer rough period. Enjoy the ride or don't. There's no immunity to losing if you're a true fan of a single team.

 

[Syckle78]

I don't think he was overlooked, as much as he picked another team. Staal had a rumored 6 teams chasing him, and it's doubtful the Wings didn't at least kick the tires. Staal was impressed with his visit to Minnesota, he also knew the area from childhood, and he had talks with Parise in the off-season. Yes, that's right, Parise snatches away another free agent.

The St. Paul papers had him in print glowing about his talks before free agency hit, so it felt like a done deal. His agent 2 days before free agency: "There’s mutual interest and consideration that there is a fit with Minnesota. We’ve had conversation and I would also suggest Eric was extremely impressed."

Funny enough, the same publication had this to say the day before free agency:
"Frans Nielsen could be too expensive for the Wild. Sam Gagner would be a cheap option. Speedy Darren Helm might not be a top-two center."

Too expesive. Not a top-two center. Go get um, Kenny! Ha, anyway...
Staal has a ton of support and help on the Wild. He wouldn't look this good on the Wings. It was a great fit for him and the team.

Staal turned out to be a good signing for Minnesota. Him signing here long term would not of gone well. He would of been a tad better than frans but wouldn't of made any difference. I was scared to death of stall getting a huge deal from Holland almost all of last year. He's playing great in Minnesota but I'm still glad he didn't sign here. Now if only we didn't get saddled with the other contracts last year...

 

[Winger98]

Exactly. I'm going to fault Holland all day long for the stupid contract he gave Nielsen, but I don't fault him for choosing to target Nielsen over Staal after the past few seasons. Staal clearly just needed to hit the re-set button but that wasn't apparent during the bulk of the past few seasons nor in his time with NYR.

I don't really blame Holland for signing Nielsen, though, either. We lost Datsyuk, Larkin faded hard down the stretch last year (and hasn't exactly followed it up well), Sheahan had a rough year last year (and has continued that in spades), and there was some serious concern over Z being able to play center going forward. I totally get Holland signing some help up the middle so we're not looking at potentially running Larkin-Helm-Sheahan-Glendening out there as our every day centers.

20/20 hindsight tells us Z rebounds like a mad man, and Athanasiou could have shouldered at least some of the load at center (though Sheahan and Larkin...oof), but Holland had no real reason to expect either of those things.

Yeah I hear that. But to think Nielsen is a better player than Staal is ridiculous. Well we signed Vanek when he looked bad with Minnesota.

I really don't think it's thinking Nielsen was better but, as Bench says, Staal picking another team, and Nielsen just being a safer pick to not fall apart physically. Also, I think if anyone thought Staal was going to rebound like this we'd have seen him getting a much different contract. Big center, puts up points, won a cup, can play in all situations...that's close to being like David Backes Deluxe, and the regular Backes got $6m a year.

 

[Kyleftlx]

I don't really blame Holland for signing Nielsen, though, either. We lost Datsyuk, Larkin faded hard down the stretch last year (and hasn't exactly followed it up well), Sheahan had a rough year last year (and has continued that in spades), and there was some serious concern over Z being able to play center going forward. I totally get Holland signing some help up the middle so we're not looking at potentially running Larkin-Helm-Sheahan-Glendening out there as our every day centers.

20/20 hindsight tells us Z rebounds like a mad man, and Athanasiou could have shouldered at least some of the load at center (though Sheahan and Larkin...oof), but Holland had no real reason to expect either of those things.



I really don't think it's thinking Nielsen was better but, as Bench says, Staal picking another team, and Nielsen just being a safer pick to not fall apart physically. Also, I think if anyone thought Staal was going to rebound like this we'd have seen him getting a much different contract. Big center, puts up points, won a cup, can play in all situations...that's close to being like David Backes Deluxe, and the regular Backes got $6m a year.

Staal killed his resume last year. He was already on that "regressing 30+ player" boat heading into the year, but his season was just miserable overall. Even once he went to NYR, the numbers are awful. His playoff numbers in NY... 5 games, -7? His track record is among the best of any free agent that was available, but he was absolutely not a safe pick. Had he been as miserable in Detroit, the fanbase would have cursed Holland hard because it was another veteran signing that flopped.

The biggest surprise about Staal's contract situation is that he signed not only for such a low salary, but he signed such a long term with that salary. Had he believed in himself, he could have signed a 1 year deal somewhere and then been handed almost double that salary on a 3-5 year deal heading into this upcoming offseason... like the Backes contract, for example.

 

[Top Shelfer]

He'll sign Iginla and some other 40 yr old player for to much salary putting the team near the max of the cap again.

 

[Goalie guy]

He'll sign Iginla and some other 40 yr old player for to much salary putting the team near the max of the cap again.

Nope Vanek and Jagr!! It said to think like Holland right? What time is pudding and crafts in the sun room!!!