Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 16th: Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

[Nasty Nazem]

not that he's an accredited media source, but Arencibia says on his twitter feed that the 1st-to-3rd pickoff move will now be called a balk.


Good. It was horsecrap that was allowed when basically any other similar fakeout move wasn't.

Wasn't that something Ken Rosenthal or some other big reporter reported on twitter? I know I read it somewhere earlier... so yeah, its true. That pointless move never works either.

 

[The Nemesis]

Wasn't that something Ken Rosenthal or some other big reporter reported on twitter? I know I read it somewhere earlier... so yeah, its true. That pointless move never works either.

Might've been. JP just had it on his twitter feed when I was looking at it by happenstance (I don't "follow" people in the normal twittery way, I just look up their feeds every once and a while in case I think there might be something interesting.)

And it never works, but I'm glad to see it gone. It was a curiously stupid wrinkle in the balk rules, which are vague and confusing enough as it is.

Meanwhile, fangraphs has a fun read about the rise and fall (mostly fall) of Delmon Young

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-delmon-young-was/

It's kind of amazing to think back to the fact that this was a guy that scouts salivated over. And whether you think he was a mirage of a prospect or he pissed it all away due to lack of effort/drive, here we sit today with Young having just signed to play for the Phillies for relative peanuts and boasting a might career bWAR of 0.8 accumulated over 7ish big league seasons.

 

[The Nemesis]

one more thing tonight.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-opportunity-of-rbi/

This is a great look at part of why some people tend to downplay the usefulness of RBIs as an evaluation tool. Basically it looks at so called "expected RBI" vs actual RBIs. You can skip some of the first few paragraphs explaining the mathy method, but basically it looks at the league-average rate in which RBIs occur in a variety of situations and compares those to how players performed in actuality in that same batch of situations (ie stuff like it's easier to get an RBI with 0 outs and a runner on 3rd than 2 out and a runner on 1st)

The important/noteworthy part is this:

Using data from 2012, let’s look at a couple of leader boards. The list below displays the top 10 batters who drove in runs at the highest rates:

Batter eRBI aRBI aeRatio
Edwin Encarnacion 60.4 107 1.77
Josh Hamilton 72.9 127 1.74
David Ortiz 35.8 60 1.68
Evan Longoria 32.6 53 1.63
Miguel Cabrera 86.3 138 1.60
Jose Bautista 40.0 63 1.58
Ryan Braun 70.7 111 1.57
Giancarlo Stanton 55.3 84 1.52
Alfonso Soriano 71.4 108 1.15
Garret Jones 57.3 85 1.48

An aeRatio above 1 suggests that a player outperformed the average hitter in terms of driving in runs. It is a simple ratio, so a ratio of 1.5 is basically saying that a hitter is producing 1.5 aRBI for each full eRBI he encounters. An aeRatio below one works the opposite way, suggesting a hitter was worse than average and produced a fraction of an aRBI for every eRBI.

Atop our list is the Blue Jays’ newest breakout slugger, Edwin Encarnacion, who had far and away his best season at the plate. Despite his dominance last season, Encarnacion finished with only 107 aRBI, 30 fewer than Miguel Cabrera, but you can see that Cabrera had 26 more eRBI, which gave him a clear advantage for the RBI title.

A simple calculation suggests that Encarnacion would have had (1.771 * 86.25 =) 153 RBI if he had been presented with the same opportunities as Cabrera, while the 2012 Triple Crown winner would have only totaled (1.6 * 60.414 =) 97 RBI if he had been given Edwin’s opportunities. I am not suggesting that every single factor would remain the same if the two simply swapped uniforms, but I’m just supplying a method of equalizing players’ RBI totals from one team to another.

Basically, it helps illustrate how much RBIs depend on the circumstances around the player as the player themselves. No one doubts that Edwin Encarnacion had an insane year, as did Miguel Cabrera. But over the course of said year, Edwin was a better run producer than Cabrera was, whereas Cabrera benefitted more from the strength of the Tigers' lineup around him than Encarnacion did from the Jays' lineup around him.

Like I said, it's a little bit nerdy for some tastes, but it raises an interesting bit of discussion/analysis. Which, for the non stat-inclined out there, harkens back to a favorite baseball debate that even non statheads love: the "if you put player X on team Y, he would be able to do what player Z did too" kind of debate.

EDIT: sorry, the table doesn't transfer over very well. Check out the article for a more readable version. It also looks at who had the most opportunity based on eRBI and in that, also players who blew the most chances (for example, most people laud Marco Scutaro for his 73 RBIs with the Giants. But his eRBI for last year was almost 84. So in other words he left roughly 11 potential RBIs on the table compared to what the league average would've gotten.)

 

[Eyedea]

2 things I noticed with DeRosa.

1. He always seems to find a way into the postseason.
2. He had the same injury as Bautista, and it pretty much derailed his career.

 

[Augustus]

not that he's an accredited media source, but Arencibia says on his twitter feed that the 1st-to-3rd pickoff move will now be called a balk.


Good. It was horsecrap that was allowed when basically any other similar fakeout move wasn't.

JP has it right. That awful, extremely boring, awkward waste of time "pickoff" move will now be in the past. For once, baseball gets a rule change right.

 

[The Nemesis]

JP has it right. That awful, extremely boring, awkward waste of time "pickoff" move will now be in the past. For once, baseball gets a rule change right.

It's not even the awkwardness that I had a problem with. It's that any kind of fakeout or double-clutch move counts as a balk except the 1st to 3rd. There was no reason at all for it not to be a balk.


Also, don't forget that tonight is the Jays Up Close with RA Dickey. 7pm ET/4pm PT on Sportsnet One.

 

[dredeye]

one more thing tonight.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-opportunity-of-rbi/

This is a great look at part of why some people tend to downplay the usefulness of RBIs as an evaluation tool. Basically it looks at so called "expected RBI" vs actual RBIs. You can skip some of the first few paragraphs explaining the mathy method, but basically it looks at the league-average rate in which RBIs occur in a variety of situations and compares those to how players performed in actuality in that same batch of situations (ie stuff like it's easier to get an RBI with 0 outs and a runner on 3rd than 2 out and a runner on 1st)

The important/noteworthy part is this:



Basically, it helps illustrate how much RBIs depend on the circumstances around the player as the player themselves. No one doubts that Edwin Encarnacion had an insane year, as did Miguel Cabrera. But over the course of said year, Edwin was a better run producer than Cabrera was, whereas Cabrera benefitted more from the strength of the Tigers' lineup around him than Encarnacion did from the Jays' lineup around him.

Like I said, it's a little bit nerdy for some tastes, but it raises an interesting bit of discussion/analysis. Which, for the non stat-inclined out there, harkens back to a favorite baseball debate that even non statheads love: the "if you put player X on team Y, he would be able to do what player Z did too" kind of debate.

EDIT: sorry, the table doesn't transfer over very well. Check out the article for a more readable version. It also looks at who had the most opportunity based on eRBI and in that, also players who blew the most chances (for example, most people laud Marco Scutaro for his 73 RBIs with the Giants. But his eRBI for last year was almost 84. So in other words he left roughly 11 potential RBIs on the table compared to what the league average would've gotten.)

Thanks for these Nemesis.

 

[TootooTrain]

2 things I noticed with DeRosa.

1. He always seems to find a way into the postseason.
2. He had the same injury as Bautista, and it pretty much derailed his career.

The odd thing about his injury is that he didn't even swing the bat. It was a check swing from what I recall. Really weird.

 

[PensBandwagonerNo272*]

Watching some spotlight on Dickey right now on Sportsnet. He's a good, passionate guy who looks like he's got fire and confidence and is ready to be a leader on a wicked team. He's talking about how AA's but together a championship team, and it's now on them to deliver. Anything less will be a disappointment.

Never been more excited to be a Jays fan. jfkjwhfjhw2rasdetcetc

 

[Eyedea]

You have an incredibly long username.

 

[PensBandwagonerNo272*]

You have a solid avatar.

 

[Eyedea]

I've been getting that a lot.

 

[The Nemesis]

Watching the Jays Up Close thing with Dickey right now.

anyone else notice that while he's at The Fan to do McCown's show, someone in the radio control room was watching Iron Man? You could see the view of the bank of different feeds and monitors and whatnot and they had the cameras for this show, and the commercial bumpers and whatnot, and one screen very obviously had Iron Man going (and it was the movie, not a commercial or something, because it was an inconsequential scene that was showing)

 

[DrEasy]

Seems to me Canzler would have been a better option as the 25th guy on the roster than De Rosa. Cheaper AND with upside. Too bad they tried to sneak him through the waivers and lost him.

 

[The Nemesis]

Seems to me Canzler would have been a better option as the 25th guy on the roster than De Rosa. Cheaper AND with upside. Too bad they tried to sneak him through the waivers and lost him.

DeRosa gives us better defensive flexibility, which in turn makes it easier to use Bonifacio as a pinch runner or offensive weapon. I would've liked to have a better extra bat off the bench in terms of power, but this does make a certain amount of sense.

 

[Cor]

Justin Upton to the Braves

 

[Animal]

whaaat?

 

[Eyedea]

Upton brothers re-unite
Marcum to Mets
Hairston to Cubs
Nyjer Morgan going to Japan

JUp - BJUp - Heyward

pretty damn good outfield, and Prado at 3rd I'm assuming.

Nvm, Prado in deal.

 

[Cor]

Jays-Braves World Series

 

[topched]

Upton brothers re-unite
Marcum to Mets
Hairston to Cubs
Nyjer Morgan going to Japan

JUp - BJUp - Heyward

pretty damn good outfield, and Prado at 3rd I'm assuming.

I thought the Braves were gonna be great.

But they gave up Prado in the deal, so he's heading to Arizona. I'm not sure the Braves are all that much better. Yeah Upton is nasty, but Prado is a great hitter. its only a small upgrade lineup wise imo.

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah I thought Teheran was going and Prado was staying, I'm not sure what to say about the deal.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Seriously? That's all it took to get Upton? What an awful return. I don't know which return is worse, this one or what they got for Bauer.

Terrible off-season for Kevin Towers and the DBacks. So many terrible, backward baffling moves. I have no idea if they are rebuilding or contending or just want to trade potential stars because they don't like their attitude.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Mets picking up Marcum on a 1 year deal is a great move. Could be getting a great bargain and potentially great trade chip at the deadline.

 

[dredeye]

Mets picking up Marcum on a 1 year deal is a great move. Could be getting a great bargain and potentially great trade chip at the deadline.

Real smart move. They aren't gonna do anything this year so if he's good or not doesn't really matter and if he does have a good year he'll have great value at the deadline to a contender in need of pitching depth.

 

[The Nemesis]

Laughably bad looking deal for the Diamondbacks. Prado is a very good player, but Arizona is not going to win right now. They needed a better prospect haul and they didn't get it. They got a pair of mid/late rotation prospects and a pair of A-ball guys who don't necessarily profile as full time big-leaguers yet, let alone impact players.

They should've let the Braves keep Prado and tried to get someone like Tehran and maybe 2 of the prospects that were in the actual deal.

This feels more like they were just interested in dumping Upton right now than getting fair value back.