Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 5.0 - The Winter Meeting Chronicles

[Eyedea]

Didn't even realize TJ House was a free agent. That's decent AAA SP depth.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I say trade Donaldson and cash in. We desperately need to restock our system while also still trimming our payroll cause we all know Rogers won't dish $160-200M to field a championship team.

Well if the Jays play their cards right they could still be a competitive team even without Donaldson. The Jays will have some good pitching prospects coming up, so hopefully a combination of those guys can sustain the rotation after Happ, Estrada and Liriano move on. Hopefully some of them can improve the bullpen beside Osuna and Biagini as well (on top of hopefully those two maintaining their play).

Then at the positional spots you have Pentecost and McGuire as potential catchers going forward, Tellez at first base, Travis at 2nd, Urena at SS, Gurrerro Jr. at 3B, Pompey, Alford, Gurriel, Ramirez, etc. in OF.

Don't forget, the Jays would have a ton of cash and some guys who may come out of nowhere as well. Not to mention the haul of prospects the Jays would get by trading guys like Donaldson, nor a handful of good prospects in the lower minors (i.e. Bichette and Woodman). It may be difficult, and a little bit optimistic, but the Jays could still be a competitive team, even if they don't make the playoffs every year.

 

[Canada4Gold]

more starting depth I guess? He has mostly been a starter his entire career, and was good for half a season of starts back in 2014. Did some relief and some starting last year in the minors.

Nice solid 8.3 BB/9 in a small 4 game sample back in 2015 wow

 

[theaub]

its not lupus

 

[Kurtz]

its not lupus

Differential diagnosis of this signing?

Go.

 

[zeke]

I like the House pickup. quite a bit.


on another note, yet another rigorous statistical analysis ends up showing that Rowdy Tellez is criminally underrated: http://www.hardballtimes.com/scouting-the-minors-pitch-by-pitch-power/

I bet the stats beat the scouts in this case.

 

[Walshy7]

score app tells me the jays are unwilling to offer Bautista more than $17.2 if you can get him for that for 1 or 2 years I would take him back but I would rather move on

 

[Discoverer]

I like the House pickup. quite a bit.


on another note, yet another rigorous statistical analysis ends up showing that Rowdy Tellez is criminally underrated: http://www.hardballtimes.com/scouting-the-minors-pitch-by-pitch-power/

I bet the stats beat the scouts in this case.

Yeah, Rowdy's gonna be really good.

I don't think scouts' concerns should be ignored by any means, but his stats match (or, in many cases, far exceed) the best of the best.

 

[ShaneFalco]

score app tells me the jays are unwilling to offer Bautista more than $17.2 if you can get him for that for 1 or 2 years I would take him back but I would rather move on

Same - but not sure where you play him? I don't want see him the field again

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[BertCorbeau]

Good time to be a reliever.

 

[zeke]

Yeah, Rowdy's gonna be really good.

I don't think scouts' concerns should be ignored by any means, but his stats match (or, in many cases, far exceed) the best of the best.

Honestly I'm not even sure what the scouts' concerns are. They have a hard time explaining why they don't like him.

And this fly ball distance metric (instead of HR rate) puts to rest the latest criticism of him - the short porch in his home RF last year.

 

[Cor]

I'm only interested in Bautista at 1B, moving Pearce to primarily OF

 

[BertCorbeau]

Honestly I'm not even sure what the scouts' concerns are. They have a hard time explaining why they don't like him.

And this fly ball distance metric (instead of HR rate) puts to rest the latest criticism of him - the short porch in his home RF last year.

It's pretty comical.

Regardless, I don't mind having a good prospects fly under the radar in the minors ... Let Tellez do his thing, and then when he's recalled with the Jays.. Well it'll get really Rowdy around here.

 

[Discoverer]

Honestly I'm not even sure what the scouts' concerns are. They have a hard time explaining why they don't like him.

And this fly ball distance metric (instead of HR rate) puts to rest the latest criticism of him - the short porch in his home RF last year.

The major problem with scouting is that different scouts are looking for different things and they generally form their opinions based on extremely limited viewings. Two scouts may see things completely differently, or see a player at different times, and even if they see them the same way at the same time, one scout may be concerned about what he sees and the other thinks it's not a concern or that it's easily fixable.

Just looking at Rowdy's reports on mlb.com and Baseball Prospectus shows some of the problems with scouting:

MLB.COM: "The left-handed hitter's swing is compact and explosive"
BP: "The swing is long with some bat wrap and can be stiff and overly mechanical"

MLB.COM: "has the strength and barrel control to drive the ball out of the park the other way"
BP:"The pop is all pull-side"

I mean... these are two reports about the same damn hitter!

 

[Cor]

It's pretty comical.

Regardless, I don't mind having a good prospects fly under the radar in the minors ... Let Tellez do his thing, and then when he's recalled with the Jays.. Well it'll get really Rowdy around here.

Out.


Get Out.

 

[Kurtz]

Out.


Get Out.

Hey, what's your opinion on the House acquisition?

 

[Cor]

Hey, what's your opinion on the House acquisition?

 

[Garlando]

Honestly I'm not even sure what the scouts' concerns are. They have a hard time explaining why they don't like him.

And this fly ball distance metric (instead of HR rate) puts to rest the latest criticism of him - the short porch in his home RF last year.

I got this answer one time in a Baseball chat about Rowdy and perhaps being underrated:

"Tellez runs like a refrigerator and isn't exactly a physical specimen, but the guy can hit. I like him but I guess some knock his athleticism and inability to play anywhere other than 1B. All he does is hit at every level. There isn't a bunch of big hitting 1B hanging out in the minor leagues right now."

 

[zeke]

yep, basically the criticisms come down to "he's a fatty".

 

[Discoverer]

I got this answer one time in a Baseball chat about Rowdy and perhaps being underrated:

"Tellez runs like a refrigerator and isn't exactly a physical specimen, but the guy can hit. I like him but I guess some knock his athleticism and inability to play anywhere other than 1B. All he does is hit at every level. There isn't a bunch of big hitting 1B hanging out in the minor leagues right now."

Yeah, you hear the old "not athletic enough to play elsewhere so if the bat doesn't work out he won't make it" all the time, and it's actually a perfectly reasonable response if you're comparing Rowdy to, say someone like Alford. Alford plays a solid CF and can run, so he can find a role even if the bat doesn't translate.

But it doesn't explain why he's ranked as the ~10th best 1B prospect, since the same thing applies to his competition as well and he's had hands-down the most impressive two-season run of any of them.

 

[Woodman19]

David Cooper is a great Jays example of an unathletic 1B type with very good peripheral stats throughout the minors.

 

[Acekicker123]

David Cooper is a great Jays example of an unathletic 1B type with very good peripheral stats throughout the minors.

Cooper's career started out nicely at the low levels but then he put up a 104 WRC+ in AA at age 22 and then a 110 WRC+ in AA at age 23.

Tellez just put up a 152 WRC+ in AA at age 21.

Obviously we all hope he has a much higher upside than Cooper.

 

[zeke]

Cooper was a polished undersized college 1B who never had the raw power upside of Tellez, and never hit as well as Tellez.

And even then, Cooper's career was derailed by injuries - there was no real reason he couldn't have continued being the league average bat he was in the 74gms he managed to play before career ending injury.

 

[Discoverer]

David Cooper is a great Jays example of an unathletic 1B type with very good peripheral stats throughout the minors.

Cooper had wRC+ of 104 and 110 in his two seasons at AA, and those came at 22 and 23 years old.

Rowdy, at 21, had a 152.