Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 5.0 - The Winter Meeting Chronicles

[AllDay28]

Kershaw will probably resign with LA and Bryce will be Wash/LAA/LAD or NYY bound.

 

[Discoverer]

I think hes insinuating that neither of those guys are going to want to come to toronto, either that or that the FO isnt going to be willing to spend that money on those guys

Oh I know exactly what he's insinuating, but my point is that A) it was an example of the kinds of players who may be available, and B) I made it clear three seperate times in those posts (including the first line of the one he quoted) that I'm not suggesting that's the strategy they're using, but that it was just an interesting point of discussion about what I think would be a smart strategy.

 

[Leaftors]

Well i mean considering a teams future is always a big topic of conversation youd have to assume their plans for the next year and setting money aside for our on Fa's as well as next years class are apart of that

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If the Turner deal is indeed 4 years at around $65MM, the Blue Jays need to begin negotiating with Donaldson immediately. That would be an outstanding outcome. 4 Years @ $21MM aav (2018-2021) + TO with $5MM buy-out.

Also, in a world where Justin Turner and Yoenis Cespedes get four years, and Dexter Fowler gets 5..........

As for Jose Bautista; a neutered version of the Cespedes contract from last year might make a good amount of sense for both sides. 3 Years @ $18MM, $15.5MM, $13.5MM with a player opt out after the first and second seasons.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Discoverer]

If the Turner deal is indeed 4 years at around $65MM, the Blue Jays need to begin negotiating with Donaldson immediately. That would be an outstanding outcome. 4 Years @ $21MM aav (2018-2021) + TO with $5MM buy-out.

Also, in a world where Justin Turner and Yoenis Cespedes get four years, and Dexter Fowler gets 5..........

As for Jose Bautista; a neutered version of the Cespedes contract from last year might make a good amount of sense for both sides. 3 Years @ $18MM, $15.5MM, $13.5MM with a player opt out after the first and second seasons.

Four years at $21 million doesn't sound like it even gets the conversation started. $21 million is what he's likely to get in his final year of arbitration. You don't buy three FA years for the same rate.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[zeke]

So you don't think that would be a smart strategy?

oh it's a great strategy.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Four years at $21 million doesn't sound like it even gets the conversation started. $21 million is what he's likely to get in his final year of arbitration. You don't buy three FA years for the same rate.

It seems low to me as well, but if Turner signs for 4 years, $65MM ($16.25Mm) that's a comp. The only other one available for 3B in that age range is Beltre's old contract, which they could also use while increasing to adjust accordingly to inflation.

Other than that, where's the precedence that says he gets more?

Edit: His agent could point to the Hanley contract (@ 30 years old, 4 Years @ $22M + vesting option). Mind you, I believe that contract was signed under the belief that he would be playing LF.

 

[BlueForever]

Bautista should sign at 2 yrs/ 35 million and call it a day.

We have our leadoff hitter and 1B for the next 2 seasons.

 

[hizzoner]

Over the years I loved both JB and EE but latterly the number of times we could not move a runner with one or none out-they did not bunt, could not or would not hit and run, the number of strikeouts at key times, JB's declining defence and arm--we would be paying top dollar for fruit that was ripe a few days ago. Get the compensatory picks, use the 30 million or whatever those guys want and spend it on a LH reliever, backup catcher and at least one good corner outfielder who can get on base and knows how to bunt/hit and run.

 

[theaub]

still can't believe edwin didn't drop one down in the wild card game tbh

 

[Discoverer]

It seems low to me as well, but if Turner signs for 4 years, $65MM ($16.25Mm) that's a comp. The only other one available for 3B in that age range is Beltre's old contract, which they could also use while increasing to adjust accordingly to inflation.

Other than that, where's the precedence that says he gets more?

If you want to look strictly at 3B, then Beltre's 5/80 isn't a bad example given his age. So add inflation and then adjust for the fact that Beltre's recent track record (prior to signing the deal) didn't come anywhere remotely close to what Donaldson has done. It still ends up much, much higher.

 

[Eyedea]

It seems low to me as well, but if Turner signs for 4 years, $65MM ($16.25Mm) that's a comp. The only other one available for 3B in that age range is Beltre's old contract, which they could also use while increasing to adjust accordingly to inflation.

Other than that, where's the precedence that says he gets more?

Edit: His agent could point to the Hanley contract (@ 30 years old, 4 Years @ $22M + vesting option). Mind you, I believe that contract was signed under the belief that he would be playing LF.

There isn't a lot of precedence for a now 31 year old who will be setting a new arbitration record in a year's time. Yoenis Cespedes just got 27.5m AAV over 4 years. The man is going to get paid.

 

[Discoverer]

still can't believe edwin didn't drop one down in the wild card game tbh

We saw the same thing with Bautista against Texas in 2015. The infield was making errors all over the place, so drop a bunt down and force Andrus or Odor to make a play. Of course he had to go swinging for the fence because he has such a huge ego. Not a team player at all.

 

[Discoverer]

It requires a bunch of adjustments as well, but the Miguel Cabrera contract is probably closer to what Donaldson should expect than Turner.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If you want to look strictly at 3B, then Beltre's 5/80 isn't a bad example given his age. So add inflation and then adjust for the fact that Beltre's recent track record (prior to signing the deal) didn't come anywhere remotely close to what Donaldson has done. It still ends up much, much higher.

There isn't a lot of precedence for a now 31 year old who will be setting a new arbitration record in a year's time. Yoenis Cespedes just got 27.5m AAV over 4 years. The man is going to get paid.

Ok, you two are AGM's for Ross Atkins, are being asked to craft a contract offer to buy-out his last year of arb and several FA years. The offer is not to be a low ball, but rather where you would like to see a contract land from a management perspective. What do you present to him?

 

[Discoverer]

Ok, you two are AGM's for Ross Atkins, are being asked to craft a contract offer to buy-out his last year of arb and several FA years. The offer is not to be a low ball, but rather where you would like to see a contract land from a management perspective. What do you present to him?

I have no idea. Maybe 6/150?

 

[Loosie]

So along with making sure they fit in position wise and money I guess the third requirement before signing with the Blue Jays is "can you bunt?"

 

[theaub]

4/108 (21, 27, 30, 30), team option @ 28 with a 2m buyout...so basically 4/110 or 5/136

I really don't see how it gets lower than that on the AAV, unless you go into the nether regions of a 6th or 7th year. I'd love to say you can keep it in the three digits but unless Donaldson's willing to bet he can take a 3/90 or something and get another big deal afterwards I can't imagine it happening.

I still don't see why you would try to extend Donaldson now though. I don't see his value going any higher, nor do I see there being a true discount opportunity now. Wait until the end of next year, and if he throws up another 7 win season pay the man.

 

[Eyedea]

Ok, you two are AGM's for Ross Atkins, are being asked to craft a contract offer to buy-out his last year of arb and several FA years. The offer is not to be a low ball, but rather where you would like to see a contract land from a management perspective. What do you present to him?

I'd probably offer 5/150, with a club option that extends it to 6/170. Something scaled like:

Y1 21m | Y2 31m | Y3 31m | Y4 31m | Y5 31m | Y6 25m option (5m buyout)

 

[zeke]

I think greinke might be the comp for donaldson.

 

[FreeBird]

If the Turner deal is indeed 4 years at around $65MM, the Blue Jays need to begin negotiating with Donaldson immediately. That would be an outstanding outcome. 4 Years @ $21MM aav (2018-2021) + TO with $5MM buy-out.

Also, in a world where Justin Turner and Yoenis Cespedes get four years, and Dexter Fowler gets 5..........

As for Jose Bautista; a neutered version of the Cespedes contract from last year might make a good amount of sense for both sides. 3 Years @ $18MM, $15.5MM, $13.5MM with a player opt out after the first and second seasons.

You can't cling to the past Joe, the long ball is dead in T.O. the suicide bunt and the double steal are the rage now.

 

[Leaftors]

So along with making sure they fit in position wise and money I guess the third requirement before signing with the Blue Jays is "can you bunt?"

you must not have been a blue jays fan before 2015 then, rookie

 

[Discoverer]

The real problem is that you aren't really going to find a realistic comp, and if you do, it'll have to be someone at a different position because Donaldson is head-and-shoulders better than everyone else at 3B that we could reasonably view as comparable.

To wit: Adrian Beltre is the closest we've come up with. Beltre's last four seasons leading up to free agency were worth a combined 16.3 fWAR. That's 1.0 fWAR less than what Donaldson has done the last two years.

The only 3B ever with a better age 27-30 stretch are Boggs and Schmidt. That includes more modern superstars like Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera, both of whom ended up with ~$250 million contracts.

I don't think he'll get such a massive contract, but, like I said, it should be closer to those than whatever Justin Turner ends up with.