Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 4.0 - Steve Pearce signs for 2/$12.5

[phillipmike]

Deal could be 83M over 6 years if the Rockies pick up the 6 year option.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I doubt this does anything to get Fowler a 5th year. Seems to me the 2 teams on him both want him at 4/60 and he wants 4/72, unless a team that wanted Desmond suddenly swoops in with a 5th year I don't see it happening.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

meh, he wants 4/72, so 5/70 would obviously be better, you're paying less and getting an extra year for free. That's not to say he will get 72, but at what point does the 5th year become a worse contract?

5/70 worse than 4/68? 4/66? 4/64? 4/60?

I'd probably say 4/64 is equivalent to 5/70 and gamble on him being worth 6 million in the 5th year

I see your point of view, and it's logical. I guess mine revolves are the idea that I'm already eating crap risk wise with year 3 and 4, and have accepted that because it is the nature of the beast with FA. So it's the by that relative cost of the fifth year, but the fact that he could very well be garbage by year three, and a relative albatross for three years; underproducing and causing opportunity cost to be an issue.

 

[theaub]

meh, he wants 4/72, so 5/70 would obviously be better, you're paying less and getting an extra year for free. That's not to say he will get 72, but at what point does the 5th year become a worse contract?

5/70 worse than 4/68? 4/66? 4/64? 4/60?

I'd probably say 4/64 is equivalent to 5/70 and gamble on him being worth 6 million in the 5th year

I'd think the starting point now would be 5/80 and go from there

 

[Discoverer]

I'd think the starting point now would be 5/80 and go from there

For Fowler? Not likely.

 

[hockeywiz542]

blackmon for smoak

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

For Fowler? Not likely.

I agree with Aubrey. If I'm his agent, there's no way a less player who is the same age gets the additional year.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Wonder how desperate EE is to come back now that his market looks like crap.

Would they do something creative like a 1 year deal with multiple player/team year options?

Something like 1 year, 30 million. Player option for year 2 at 20 million, team option for year 3 at 15 million?

Would love a 1 year deal, but would his agent do that ? It puts his commission at risk.

I am starting to wonder what this "creative" idea that both parties could accomplish to get EE back in Toronto.

I think 1 year at $25-30 million might make sense. Gives you another shot to win, and then you can evaluate guys at different positions.

Also, for those who have read the new CBA, would this also allow EE to sign again next year without the 1st round pick compensation? Would benefit him to pocket $25+ million and expand his market next year if teams don't lose a pick and see he can play 1B for a good portion of the year.

Pearce can play 2B and 1B when Travis and EE respectively need a day off, 3B if necessary and would primarily play LF. We will see how his body holds up playing a lot of games in the OF and also evaluate EE as a 1B for primarily the entire season.

Still think that allows you to make a longer term commitment to Fowler or trade for one with a longer term deal without issue.

Yes please.

Steamer war

RF Betts (24) 5.5 --------- 3B Donaldson (31) 6.2
SS Bogaerts (24) 3.9 ---- SS Tulowitzki (32) 3.0
2B Pedroia (33) 3.6 ------ C Martin (34) 2.8
CF Bradley (27) 2.9 ------ CF Pillar (28) 2.5
1B Ramirez (33) 2.1 ----- 2B Travis (26) 1.8
LF Benintendi (22) 1.3 --- 1B Pearce (34) 1.5
C Leon (28) 1.1 ----------- LF Pompey (24) 1.1
3B Sandoval (30) 0.9 ---- DH Morales (34) 0.8
DH Swihart (25) 0.1 ------ RF Upton (32) 0.2

That hitting lineup is weak.

Pearce/Morales are fine replacements for Bautista/Saunders, imo.

But we have to replace EE's 3-4war.

You back to back sentences don't add up. How is a replacement fine with a 4 WAR deficit ?

Fowler - CF
Eaton - LF
Donaldson - 3B
Abreu - 1B
Morales - DH
Tulo - SS
Martin - C
Pearce\Upton - RF
Goins\Barney

Bench : Carerra, Goins\Barney, Pearce\Upton, Jimenez

BoSox now more potent on the mound than Viagra on Cialis.
We get Morales & Pearce, lose EE lose Bautista, Cecil & Benoit unexpectedly.

Meanwhile, Jays media via Sportsnet telling us now that Fowler is the man of our dreams who will magically take us beyond the Red Wall that is the new Boston rotation... oh, and there's Baltimore too.

So, we go from contender to.... to.... someone tell me what we are at this point. Because we ain't better.

And yet it is we the fans who arent WAR wizards that are wrong, and can't trust our lying eyes that Shap/Atkins are failing.

Definitely not better.

Reading this thread the last week has made my head hurt. The amount of dumb is astounding. Baseball please come back soon.

I can't say your whining was worth reading either.
If you don't agree with something you should say specifically what it is.

GM quote of the day

"If you do what you rationally want to do, you will finish third on every free agent." - Andrew Friedman.

Haha.
3rd on EE.

Time to brush off my Red Sox clothing, they are going to be one heckuva great team to cheer for.

The Blue Jays? Trade Donaldson, Sanchez, scorch the earth and rinse and repeat.

Our teams base is too old. Simple and final. Tulo, Martin, Donaldson have peaked. We have no farm.

Shapiro is about to do what has to be done, build up the farm.

Get ready for some lean times and go SOX>

What about 1 more year before a rebuild ?

Two first round picks for JB and E. E. . Shapiro was never going to sign either of them. He wants those picks BAD. As do I. See ya old timers.

quite possible.

Having Upton and Smoak and Pillar in the lineup guarantees one thing, the Blue Jays will be unwatchable. Nothing worse than watching guys who are strikeout specialists.

Ouch.

yep. The day they made the 4x$20 offer I was satisfied. That was an honest attempt to sign one of our own top FAs for the first time in.... maybe ever?

Is that fact he was offered that ?


If the attendance drops to what it was 3 years ago ... how much will Rogers lose in team revenue (ticket prices, ?

 

[Sokil]

Would love a 1 year deal, but would his agent do that ? It puts his commission at risk.

Not only that, but he might fire his agent over this

 

[BlueForever]

I doubt this does anything to get Fowler a 5th year. Seems to me the 2 teams on him both want him at 4/60 and he wants 4/72, unless a team that wanted Desmond suddenly swoops in with a 5th year I don't see it happening.

If anything its lowered Fowlers worth no???

Fowler

Age 30 - HR 13 RBI 48 SB 13 BA .276 OBP .393


Desmond

Age 30 - HR 22 RBI 86 SB 22 BA .289 OBP .335


Desmond gets 5yrs/70 million, that's a 14 million average.

Fowler offered 4 yrs/60 million, that's a 15 million average.

Looking at the stats, ages, position. Other then Fowler hitting leadoff. I would say the offers Fowler has gotten is fair if not above what hes worth based on the Desmond signing.

This signing could have made matters worse for the Fowler camp and worked in the Blue Jays favor.

 

[zeke]

If anything its lowered Fowlers worth no???

Fowler

Age 30 - HR 13 RBI 48 SB 13 BA .276 OBP .393


Desmond

Age 30 - HR 22 RBI 86 SB 22 BA .289 OBP .335


Desmond gets 5yrs/70 million, that's a 14 million average.

Fowler offered 4 yrs/60 million, that's a 15 million average.

Looking at the stats, ages, position. Other then Fowler hitting leadoff. I would say the offers Fowler has gotten is fair if not above what hes worth based on the Desmond signing.

This signing could have made matters worse for the Fowler camp and worked in the Blue Jays favor.

I sure hope you are right that Fowler will be undervalued based on those roto numbers, because he's a much more valuable player than Desmond.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If anything its lowered Fowlers worth no???

Fowler

Age 30 - HR 13 RBI 48 SB 13 BA .276 OBP .393


Desmond

Age 30 - HR 22 RBI 86 SB 22 BA .289 OBP .335


Desmond gets 5yrs/70 million, that's a 14 million average.

Fowler offered 4 yrs/60 million, that's a 15 million average.

Looking at the stats, ages, position. Other then Fowler hitting leadoff. I would say the offers Fowler has gotten is fair if not above what hes worth based on the Desmond signing.

This signing could have made matters worse for the Fowler camp and worked in the Blue Jays favor.

Sigh...there aren't that many Dave Stewarts around anymore. Most management teams have knowledge of metrics.

Summer days though, summer days.

 

[zeke]

That hitting lineup is weak.

It's an above average hitting lineup, with elite defense.

You back to back sentences don't add up. How is a replacement fine with a 4 WAR deficit ?

They're replaced what Joey/Saunders brought last year, but haven't replaced EE's contributions yet.

Is that fact he was offered that ?

It's been solidly reported from numerous sources, publicly agreed to by EE's agent, and not denied by our FO.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I still can't wrap my head around the Rockies forfeiting the 11th overall pick and giving Ian Desmond 5/70 to play 1st base. The guy was a 106 wRC+ last year and is projected for 92, that's possibly the worst 1B bat in the league. If that's what you want as a 1st baseman I've got a slightly used Justin Smoak to sell you.

It would be like Pillar getting to free agency and getting that much to play 1st base all the while passing on Trea Turner(was a recent 13th overall pick) to do it. Yeah I'm clear exaggerating here but still your 1st base bat needs to be better than that. It's a bad contract to have him play the outfield, but at least it's defensible, giving up the 11th pick makes it terrible. You can't have a bat that bad at 1st for that money and that pick it's ridiculous.

I'm hoping they come around from their stupidity or this is some ploy because they don't want others to know their shopping an outfielder

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

If the attendance drops to what it was 3 years ago ... how much will Rogers lose in team revenue (ticket prices, ?

http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/6/15...so-that-should-grow-next-year-s-payroll-right

These numbers are from mid-season last year, so the final attendance number was likely more, but the extrapolations give you an idea of gate revenue (not including postseason):

In other words, let’s multiply the 3,050,055 tickets the Jays are on pace to sell by $27.11. From that you get $82.7-million.

2,536,562 tickets were sold in 2013. Multiply that by $27.11 per ticket and you end up with 68.7 million.

And I'm sure the average price per ticket will go up again so the difference will be more dramatic than the 14 million dollars suggested by this crude estimation.

EDIT: Final attendance figure was 3,392,299. x $27.11 per ticket gets 92 million vs 68.7 million (if current average price of 27.11 was applied to the 2013 attendance number).

So 24 million in "lost" revenue.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I see your point of view, and it's logical. I guess mine revolves are the idea that I'm already eating crap risk wise with year 3 and 4, and have accepted that because it is the nature of the beast with FA. So it's the by that relative cost of the fifth year, but the fact that he could very well be garbage by year three, and a relative albatross for three years; underproducing and causing opportunity cost to be an issue.

If you're concerned about the dead money in the 5th year being an issue and would prefer have that risk gone by year 4 you could structure the contract that way. I mean it's a little weird but if you were willing to go 4/68 for example then obviously you should go 5/70 with a structure of 17, 17, 17, 17, 2 if that were an option. Now obviously if you were willing to go 4/68 then Fowler likely would accept that before 5/70 because he would figure he could get 2 million in a new contract if he wanted it but just in a comparative sense.

I'd think the starting point now would be 5/80 and go from there

Yeah I was just going off the guy who said 5/70 for Fowler would look good and DJQ being concerned about the extra 5th year and just comparing how that would be prefereable to his current ask because you're almost getting an extra year for free.

Though I'm still not convinced Fowler's market is going to go up to a 5th year now that the Rockies did something dumb. It would still require a team willing to give him a 5th year who I guess would ahve to swoop in after being a bridesmaid for Desmond because I don't expect the Cards to Jays to suddenly do it.

 

[Garlando]

Rockies signing Desmond likely means they try and move one of Cargo or Charlie Blackmon. Any posters here interested in them? Neither seems like a guy I would be interested in away from Coors.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I just remembered that EE can't get 60 million to play 1st base(or DH) with his 146, 151, 150, and 134 wRC+ in the last 4 years yet Ian Desmond can get 70 to play 1B with his 116, 108, 83, 106 wRC+

Sorry if I'm annoying I won't get over this Rockies stupidity for a while.

 

[Acekicker123]

Bringing back Bautista would be perfectly fine.

Steamer actually likes him a lot more for 2017 (WRC+ 128, 2.9 WAR) than they do Edwin (WRC+ 125, 2.3 WAR)

 

[Acekicker123]

I just remembered that EE can't get 60 million to play 1st base(or DH) with his 146, 151, 150, and 134 wRC+ in the last 4 years yet Ian Desmond can get 70 to play 1B with his 116, 108, 83, 106 wRC+

Sorry if I'm annoying I won't get over this Rockies stupidity for a while.

Not to mention the $10+ million value of losing the 11th overall pick.

 

[TOGuy14]

Apparently the market for EE is falling through FAST

 

[Hoverhand]

Rockies signing Desmond likely means they try and move one of Cargo or Charlie Blackmon. Any posters here interested in them? Neither seems like a guy I would be interested in away from Coors.

A deal for one of those two would likely cost us Stroman+ so no I would not be interested.

Rather just give Fowler what he wants.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Apparently the market for EE is falling through FAST

How has he not fired his agent yet? I feel for the guy because I honestly think deep down he would have settled for less to remain a Jay.

 

[phillipmike]

How has he not fired his agent yet? I feel for the guy because I honestly think deep down he would have settled for less to remain a Jay.

So do i. I feel like his agent and the union was pressuring him to find the biggest deal possible.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Not to mention the $10+ million value of losing the 11th overall pick.

losing a pick will be there with Edwin too for whoever signs him, and if it was to be the Rockies(They picked Desmond at 1B over Edwin I presume if they do in fact want Desmond for 1B) they would have gave up the same pick so I just left it out

How has he not fired his agent yet? I feel for the guy because I honestly think deep down he would have settled for less to remain a Jay.

I hope he fires him before he signs, dude doesn't deserve his cut of Edwin's contract