Observations

[101st_fan]

yeah, just imagine if we were actually playing well, we would be leading the division.. hey wait a second..

We could have a comfortable lead and hold the tiebreaks ... unlike now.

 

[Pred303]

ecso we'd be 15-3-2 instead of 13-5-2?

look, we're not as good as our record, most experienced hockey minds know that. but doom probably isn't over the horizon either.. some things will get better, some will get worse most of us know... we simply have to get good enough on special teams where we break even and not lose games because of a bad pk and we'll be fine.

like right now, secondary scoring is starting to pick up, right as neal has struggled a little. the pk is showing overall improvement signs as well is the pp.

the true advantage we have is that we are a defensive/goaltending strength team, and those aren't as prone to suffering prolonged slumps. if offense improves, this is a 100 point team. if it doesn't we still should be right there fighting for that playoff spot.

overall, I don't know how any rational person that is a pred fan couldn't be more excited about the things that are going right than angry about the things that aren't, they are far more numerous and why we are 13-5-2.

 

[101st_fan]

Rational ... not a word I see as applying to a lot of things on HF. When issues were noted early, the groupthink was but we haven't lost in regulation ... followed by a flood of assessments after a regulation loss. Now issues are dismissed with but we're in 1st .. with a few realizing we're often winning in spite of ourselves. As you've noted, the areas where the team is excelling are most likely going to slip with the areas where the team lacks probably improving ... the same applies for every team in the league. What nobody can predict is the relationship between slippage in one area and improvement in another. As close as things are, we cannot afford to slip without simultaneous (worst case) improvement.

This team is lacking in areas where even under Trotz it at least performed ok ... special teams jump out right now. With the 5on5 success, we're in the middle third of the league for goals scored per game. This is a team that even when they look good for most of a game and manage to control the play for long stretches still manages to let teams get back into games. Going back over the past couple weeks, take a big lead on Edmonton early, let them back in in the 2nd. Control the 1st and 3rd at Ottawa, lose the game in the 2nd. Control most of last night, crumble in the final minute. We're getting the wins ... but we're doing it on a razor's edge. We can't expect to let teams come back and not have it bite hard.

Luckily last night's final minute choke was against a team from the East so the point doesn't mean anything in the Western playoff picture. The lost ROW might become meaningful. The loss at Ottawa might become very meaningful ... another game where fans here keep using the word dominate, except when we didn't. Luck is on our side ... but for how long?

 

[predfan24]

So what you are saying is you aren't going to be satisfied until every part of the Preds game meets your "acceptable" expectations? Well be prepared to never be satisfied..by any team....ever.....in any professional sport.

 

[PredsHabs]

So what you are saying is you aren't going to be satisfied until every part of the Preds game meets your "acceptable" expectations? Well be prepared to never be satisfied..by any team....ever.....in any professional sport.

Not speaking for 101stfan but my opinion is this team is good for stretches but not great. We need more from players when it counts, great teams make teams pay on the 5-3 PP. As good as our team has played we are very lucky to be in 1st in the Central(sort of). I am very happy but I don't expect every game to continue to fall back into our laps, especially the more teams try their best to shutdown Ribeiro's line.

 

[jwhouk]

The Packers played horrid for a good chunk of today's game at Minnesota. They still won. Thanks to New England, they are now in first place in the NFC North.

101st: Do you need James Neal to come on the post-game and say, "R-E-L-A-X, Relax"?

 

[MrJoshua]

I'm not blind to the fact that aspects of the team need work. But given a choice between focusing on those areas or sitting back to enjoy the ride so far, well, hand me my gold-tinted glasses and let's party. Worrying is for coaches.

 

[PredsV82]

It boils down to this... in any sport where the season is long, most teams records eventually reflect the underlying fundamentals.

In baseball, a team with a bullpen with a high ERA may win for a while, but over the course of 162 games, it will eventually catch up to them.

In basketball, a team that doesn't shoot well from the free throw line can still be a winning team, but eventually its gonna cost them some games.

In hockey, I just don't see how we can remain in the top half of the division, particularly our division, when we are in the bottom 5 on both the PK and PP. Its just not sustainable.

I'm enjoying the wins, but right now this season is mentally a lot different than the other really good years. I keep waiting for either the PP and PK to improve, at which point it will feel like 06-07 again, or else I keep waiting for the wheels to come off, which of course I hope never happens

 

[hornedfrog]

I think our struggles with the PP and PK have to do more with chemistry than it has to do with talent and coaching. You have to remember how "new" this team is. Good PP units aren't always put together in one off season, you have to give them time to mesh with one another. You also have to take into account how many chances both of out top and bottom lines have created but failed to execute do to hot goal tenders and bad luck. We are ranked 11th in shots on goal at 30.9, which is 1.9 less the 2nd place Islanders, Montreal who leads the entire league in points is ranked 27th in the same statistical category. These guys are creating chances like many of the top teams in the league and have been able to take control of games that seem a lot closer because of the final score. We need to keep these guys on the ice together in hope that more of these chances find the back of the net. I think if Lavy keeps these guys together and keeps his system the way it is, we will be just fine as long as Pekka plays like his usual self and our top guys stay relatively healthy.

 

[Armourboy]

I think if you look at most people that really pay attention they are enjoying the ride, but are waiting for the team to come back down to reality. Will that happen? Who knows, a team like the Royals sure rode it for a while.

I see the problems, I see the issues, it grinds my gears to see it time and time again, but if we get the win I'm happy. It may not be pretty, it may not make statistical sense, but if you can't enjoy watching your team win even with its faults, well I'm just not sure why you are still watching.

 

[jwhouk]

What if the special team issues are the anomaly, though?

 

[Pred303]

thinking aloud about our power play troubles.

...weber, neal. are our two best pp pieces. and we haven't figured out how to best use them. neal with only 2 and weber with only 3 pp points thru 20 games. we've tried different sets, we've tried different combos. none have helped.
...the problem with neal has been, is that he needs to be in the high slot position. but the only guy hallway effective we've found to quarterback the overload formation is Ribeiro, who can only run the overload off the right halfboard, and if you do that, the guy in the high slot needs to be right handed. so we've had to move neal down to the goalline, where it negates his shot.
...neal is best used in high slot with a right handed guy qb'ing the pp off the left halfboard. (fisher?).
...neal and weber would be great pieces for an umbrella formation, but to be effective there you have to have two inside guys who are a threat and can play in front for screens and rebounds, something we honestly don't have.
...if we have neil, Forsberg, Ribeiro out there, we really have three perimeter forwards, and no real inside presence. which also limits weber's effectiveness because he doesn't have guys screening to help him make point shots
...it's a coaching puzzle no doubt. the pieces just don't quite fit.

somehow, we have to find the right combo. not sure after 20 games who that is, and obviously neither are the coaches.

 

[triggrman]

I don't see how you can get 50 shots on goal and br winning in spite of yourself. That's almost troll fishing.

Our special teams really struggled early, especially the 1st 5 or so games. Since then we've made some improvements but we're still not there yet.

We all knew there would be growing pains, and the special teams seem to be the area affected the most.

We are a far better 5 on 5 team tan we have been over the last 5 or 6 years. Which the majority of the game is played at even strength, si that's probably the best place to start with a rebuilding a teams identity.

I do think though the best teams in the playoffs are the better even strength teams.

 

[triggrman]

For the record, our pp is no longer in the bottom 5, it might be at home but since we've had like 3 home games this month, I think we should give it a minute.


Our pk is still in the bottom 5, but that's more of a reflection of how bad we were in the beginning and not the last 5 games or so, I think in the last 5 games we've only given up 1 powerplay goal. So I really expect this to trend up as well.

Overall with Rinne, Weber and Josi, I think both will rebound as the team and coach get more familiar with each other.

Until then, I expect all the negative posters to continue to harp on it.

 

[tampa pred]

Re: our 5-on-5 play
During the Florida game, their broadcasters (Florida feed) said that we are the best 5-on-5 team in the NHL.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

What we really need on the power play is a Scott Hartnell, Patric Hornqvist kind of player to get in front of the net and cause havoc. For whatever reason, we do not have a lot of movement on our power play in terms of puck getting quickly across ice and bodies moving. In order to mitigate that, we need a net presence to cause the havoc.

303 is absolutely correct in terms of guys not being in the right position or the pieces not fitting. Neal wasn't in a good shooting position about half the time we are on the PP and a lot of those problems are caused by handiness being incorrect for Nealer.

If we get to the All-Star break and we haven't figured out or struggling PP, I think you see a trade for a guy who goes to the front of the net. Beck has been doing it occasionally, but he isn't talented enough to make an impact night in and night out.

The PK is looking better though. Overall, I am really pleased with the team and our record.

 

[Pred303]

when fisher gets healthy, from a pure 'handedness' point of view, the text book set of using the pieces we currently have on the pp could look something like this;

1)running one off the right halfboard, with ribeiero (LH) on halfboard, forsberg (RH) high slot, wilson (LH) down low.
2)the other off the left halfwall, with fisher (RH) on halfboard, neil (LH) high slot, smith (RH) down low.

josi and weber, obviously make up our premier pp pair, ellis and jones/cullen/eckholm the other, sigh. we need another good lefty puck handling dman to pair with ellis or jones honestly, i had hoped that guy would be eckholm but it hasn't panned out yet.

i like the idea of running the pp off the left half wall, because far fewer teams run this. it puts pk'ers in spots they aren't as used to seeing. since far more teams run off the right half wall, most teams place their quickest pk forward out on the left front side of their box. when you swap sides with the pp, it sometimes creates favorable matchups. older fans will remember how effective we were when sully came over and we ran the pp off the left side for the first time, felt like it caught teams off guard.

 

[Pred303]

honestly, i still worry far more over our pk than i do our pp. i think we will pick up our pp numbers as guys settle into rolls and we adopt new strategies. i think the pieces are there for our pp they just haven't clicked yet.

the pk however worries me. we seem bound and determined to use gaustad and nystrom as our number one pk set of forwards for every kill, and i simply don't trust nystrom's defensive instincts and the quickness of these two guys overall to cover the both the points and high slot.

hopefully fisher helps. maybe jarnkrok, roy and cullen step up here as well.

again, defense is what seperates us from other teams. i feel we can afford an average pp with the strength of our defense. but we simply cann't afford to have a below average pk or it will cost us games.

 

[predfan24]

Not speaking for 101stfan but my opinion is this team is good for stretches but not great. We need more from players when it counts, great teams make teams pay on the 5-3 PP. As good as our team has played we are very lucky to be in 1st in the Central(sort of). I am very happy but I don't expect every game to continue to fall back into our laps, especially the more teams try their best to shutdown Ribeiro's line.

I think most would agree right now this team is a good team and not a great team. However the potential to launch into great is there.

"We need more from our players when it counts" I'm not trying to be a smartass here I promise however the game counts all the time and apparently we are doing a pretty good job at performing when it "counts" considering our record.

I don't see where luck has played to much of a part of the season anymore than regular puck luck goes for and against you all throughout the season. We saw both ends of the spectrum Saturday night.

Off the top of my head I can't think of a game we have won that we clearly didn't deserve to win and there have been several games we have lost where I thought the game was evenly played or we were actually a bit better than the other team overall. That doesn't indicate luck to me.

We have won lots of close games but as Pred303 has said this is a 3-2 league. Winning close games indicate confidence. This is a league of parity and there is a fine line between the best and worse teams.

My point is this is a good team and EVERY team has their issues. That doesn't mean you should ignore them but issues should be taken in context with performance. If the good outweighs the bad the results speak for themselves.

 

[luckofirish8]

honestly, i still worry far more over our pk...we simply cann't afford to have a below average pk or it will cost us games.

It's kinda funny, because I think the exact opposite is true. Especially, if we can continue to keep our penalty minutes down. The PK has improved (IMO) over the last few games. It's still not perfect, obviously. I do the think the occasional insertion of Beck has helped a great deal. He gets after it and tries to put people under pressure. Not to mention he gives up his body.

The PP on the other hand is far more important for me, because of just how good we are/have been 5-on-5 and how good we generally our in the defensive zone. I have said to a friend on more than one occasion this year that the opponents get better scoring changes against us when we are on the PP than 5-on-5. That's crazy.

 

[Pred303]

lol, we all look at games thru our own lens and personal viewpoints.

 

[glenngineer]

I'm less concerned about percentages when it comes to the PP and PK but more so when the goals happen, for or against. If we go 0-8 in a game and we're down 1 late, go on the PP and score, that's a timely PP goal. Same could be said if we halt someone on the PK when up by 1 late in the game. To me it's situational.

Last year LAK was 15% and 83% on special teams. Playoffs their PP% went up to 23%.

Chicago the year before was 16.7% and 87.2%. Playoffs their PP dropped to 11% and PK went up to 90.8%/

The year before that LAK was 17 and 87%. Playoffs they went 12.8% and 92.1%.

To me it looks like the PK is the bigger issue here with us, especially come playoff time which to me says, tighter D and timely goals wins championships. It also say 5 on 5 scoring in the playoffs is more important than the PP. That's just a 3 year snippet as I don't feel like doing anymore but thought it would be interesting to look at.

 

[StarvinArvyn33]

Last year the issue was even strength, this year it's the powerplay.

Forsberg caught so much **** last year for only scoring on the man advantage. Now he's tearing up even strength.



You can't have your cake and eat it too

The special teams will turn around it has no where to go but up.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Glad we're not seeing Dallas until January. They're looking good right now.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Last year the issue was even strength, this year it's the powerplay.

Forsberg caught so much **** last year for only scoring on the man advantage. Now he's tearing up even strength.



You can't have your cake and eat it too

The special teams will turn around it has no where to go but up.

Actually, many do want their eat and eat it too. I appreciate the critique of the PK and PP but there are many facets that make up a great team. NO CURRENT NHL TEAM IS "GREAT", great defined as being league leading in all facets of the game. So our nuanced debate over whether were good or great implies greatest, at this point, is attainable.
We're 25% thru the season. When the Pens shut us out, they were playing "great". They just lost back-to-backs to the Isles. Kings looked like world beaters, then lost 4 in a row. Ducks have been pretty consistently up there, but not great. The Blues went on a 9-1 run, then promptly went on the road and lost 2 in a row. Just when it looked like the Habs were "great", the freakin' Rangers shut them out 5-0.
Point being, our results are Top 5. Our win percentage is among the league leaders. We get points. that's what we do. We don't do losing streaks. We're the only team in the league without a losing streak this year.
Our strengths overcome our weaknesses on most nights, and we win. That is not a unique formula. Every team in the league is flawed. It's a salary cap system. It's designed for parity. This "Ideal" we appear to be comparing ourselves to: Great PP, PK, Goaltending, D, and Even-Strength is a myth. Teams that win Cups a very good in 4 of the 5. It's very rare to be "great" in all 5. Right now, we're very good in 3 of the 5, and getting better in the other 2.
On paper, the Blues should be very good in all 5. They are fighting with us for the top spot and we are playing as good as they are.
Will our flaws "catch up with us"? This implies we have inherent flaws that we're somehow masking.
This is probably, from top to bottom, the most skilled Pred team we've ever iced. The 2006-2007 had slightly better forwards, but this year's team has better D-men and goaltending. Special teams will improve and we will finish in the Top 3 of the Central.
We've wandered for 2 years in the Non-Playoff Desert. In short order, we've re-tooled, improved our farm system, and re-created the energy that comes from winning. Call me ignorant or fat-dumb-and-happy but hockey is fun again. I expect to win every game and have rarely been disappointed so far. If the Boogieman is lurking behind our weak PK or PP, I fear not. Smashville is once again the talk of the league and I plan on enjoying it, flaws and all.