Observations XIX

[hido]

I wasn't able to see the game. How did Saros look?

 

[BigFatCat999]

303 is a short term thinker. I am a long term, what could be thinker. This is why 303 is a businessman and I'm a poser. I look at the stats and the defense is in really good shape. Top 10 without Ellis. I could see the Preds making a move using one of their defensemen as bait for offensive punch. Media rumblings hint, just hint at a Josi move but I just can't see it. Some would say 'You can' trade a captain!' but the fact is this is a team full of captains. Much like any position, next man up. If Montreal blows ups I could see a moderately cheap, based on the NHL roster, move for Galch. Montreal is on the bottom of the stats for EVERY stat and they need help everywhere.

 

[Pred303]

Sometimes you lose games when you don't play badly. today we did. The thing that hurts is we lost to a not very good team that we really outplayed. Hockey is a funny game. Most of the time the team that plays the best makes the fewest mistakes. Usually the team that makes the most bad mistakes loses. That was us. Well actually it was a few of us. Horrible mistakes on three plays cost us 2 points. Virtually the only bad mistakes we made all game, and they all wound up in our net.

Just a few random specific observations;

..the guys keeping official 'scoring chances' were obviously smoking dope. no way there were 20 scoring chances in the first period.
..we start a guy to 'keep him fresh' against a team he is now 0-3 against. 3 of his 11 short career losses. with a back to back coming next week when he would have gotten the start.
..I want Saros to be the answer, we all do. But nothing is more unpredictable than a goalies long term success.
..when you stop 11 of 14 shots you didn't necessary have a bad game. but you didn't have a good one either. fought the puck all day on the shots that didn't go in.

goal 1..johansen with an awful dangerous diagonal pass to Emelin at the far point. That low to high type pass is always high risk. Emelin gave it a good effort even though I cussed him. the fault was really the dangerous pass and subban over skating the net and not picking up the trailer.
goal 2..emelin obviously with an awful play on the backhand fluffed pass. Irwin with a missed hit at the line first and then panicking chasing the puck and leaving the front of the net wide open. that was his job.
goal 3..Irwin getting walked so frigging badly. and saros leaving the near post.

..subban 4 times in the first 30 minutes cost us zone time by not holding the puck in at the blueline. that in effect killed two of our PP's. he did not have a good game
..obviously we had bad luck on the two posts, fiala and emelin.
..josi and ekholm were really good.

..still don't really know whether josi, arvidsson or Forsberg really deserved our second goal even after watching it ten times.
..Irwin has played downright terrible so far. today was just the worst.
..for the first 30 minutes of the game the Johansen line was all but invisible. starting with the ekholm goal shift they played ok afterwards.
..we need johansen to actually score some goals at some point because we just don't have enough goal scorers.

..hartnell. just don't know how much we will get out of him even strength.
..fiala looked like he played with more confidence after last game. now we need production.
..all the missed shots killed our offense. too many high danger area shots missed the net.

..i go into a game with saros in net right now feeling we need to score 3 to have a chance but 4 to probably win.
..I will always hate Vesey. and of course we are the only team he can score against.

we really had our chances to tie and win this game in the third. and couldn't.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

303.. what's your view on emelin weber bitetto irwin? I'm calling them WIBE. maybe im a little critical of our guys but i can't find anything positive to say about any of them really.

 

[Enoch]

I'm okay with a mediocre Hartnell at even strength. The speed isn't there. He is the net guy. We need him on the PP. If he makes it to the post season, he will be a huge boon in that atmosphere. We forget how much we needed a guy like him against the Ducks and Penguins.

Additionally, the defense has great metrics and for the most part, looks really good. This is with Ellis out. I echo 303s comment's there.

BUT

The third pairing continues to be abused. We need these guys over the course of the season, and the third pairing should always be picked on. We can't keep having them give up a goal a game. This has to be fixed. I do not typically advocate playing the young guy, and I like the idea of seasoning him longer and extending player control. However, having a seasoned rookie in the playoffs with his speed and offensive acumen ... he has some game-breaking type of skills which could pay off ... I'm open to giving him some more games / look-see.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Hartnell looked decent next to Bonino, but hasn't been nearly as effective with Bones on IR.

If Fiala - Sissons - Smith works out,I'd like to see a bit more of that Hartnell - Bonino - Aberg line given a chance when they're all healthy.

 

[NSH615]

Hartnell looked decent next to Bonino, but hasn't been nearly as effective with Bones on IR.

If Fiala - Sissons - Smith works out,I'd like to see a bit more of that Hartnell - Bonino - Aberg line given a chance when they're all healthy.

Scratch Åberg there. I have zero faith he will ever produce in the NHL at this point.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Scratch Åberg there. I have zero faith he will ever produce in the NHL at this point.

i think his move he made against maata the pylon in the finals is giving him every opportunity. agree with you.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

For those bemoaning Hartnell's even strength play of late, you have to remember his linemates have been Jarnkrok and Salomaki. It would take some sort of miracle or a top end player to NOT look disappointing offensively with those linemates. I've been disappointed with Johansen so far myself, looks like he's going to start slow this year as well. Lots of ill advised cross ice passes that are being constantly intercepted, only 12 shots in 8 games and only 3 even strength points (all assists, of course) so far.

 

[NSH615]

For those bemoaning Hartnell's even strength play of late, you have to remember his linemates have been Jarnkrok and Salomaki. It would take some sort of miracle or a top end player to NOT look disappointing offensively with those linemates. I've been disappointed with Johansen so far myself, looks like he's going to start slow this year as well. Lots of ill advised cross ice passes that are being constantly intercepted, only 12 shots in 8 games and only 3 even strength points (all assists, of course) so far.

I didn't realize that linemates made one slow as ****. And I have more faith in Salomaki than Åberg.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

I didn't realize that linemates made one slow as ****. And I have more faith in Salomaki than Åberg.

jarnkrok has shown zero ability to help wingers get scoring chances. neal suffered the same with him. hartnell is useful as a 3rd line winger and a body in front of net and on PP. there are a lot of more pressing issues than hartnell not producing ES at the moment with jarnkrok as his center. no one should expect a line centered by jarnkrok to produce.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I didn't realize that linemates made one slow as ****. And I have more faith in Salomaki than Åberg.

Salomaki has 13 points in 93 NHL games, including 0 for 6 this year.

Aberg has 8 points in 38 NHL games. Though just 1 for 5 this year. He's also developmentally a pro season behind Salomaki.

Aberg had high expectations this season, but how everyone is giving up on him after five games this year when the entire forward group after JoFA is barely scoring is beyond me.

We have a struggling group in flux this year. Fisher, Neal and Wilson are gone, Bonino is hurt.

So we found out so far that Aberg isn't going drive offense by himself, but this start hardly means that he doesn't have NHL skill and won't produce in the NHL. If our middle-six players were scoring at all I think Aberg is perfectly capable of being an effective third line scorer in the 30-40 point range.

 

[NSH615]

Salomaki has 13 points in 93 NHL games, including 0 for 6 this year.

Aberg has 8 points in 38 NHL games. Though just 1 for 5 this year. He's also developmentally a pro season behind Salomaki.

Aberg had high expectations this season, but how everyone is giving up on him after five games this year when the entire forward group after JoFA is barely scoring is beyond me.

We have a struggling group in flux this year. Fisher, Neal and Wilson are gone, Bonino is hurt.

So we found out so far that Aberg isn't going drive offense by himself, but this start hardly means that he doesn't have NHL skill and won't produce in the NHL. If our middle-six players were scoring at all I think Aberg is perfectly capable of being an effective third line scorer in the 30-40 point range.

Aberg has also been placed on more of a scoring line more often that Salomaki. Salomaki has mostly been used on that grinder/beat the crap out of you line. Saying that Salomaki hasn't produced at the same rate as Aberg is like saying Irwin/Weber haven't scored as many goals as the JOFA line. Of course they wouldn't because that's not their role. It's the same reason that Sissons has produced more once moved off that 4th line.

The real issue with Hartnell isn't Salomaki, it's Jarnkrok.

 

[Pred303]

a few 'fun' factoids 1/10 of the way thru the season;

..our 5 'best' individual corsi numbers are; 1)gaudreau, 2)josi, 3)salomaki, 4)smith, 5)irwin... surprising huh?
..our 5 worst are; 1)weber, 2)jarnkrok, 3)watson, 4)emelin, 5)aberg.. maybe not quite as surprising.
..josi is 4th on the team in shots despite only playing 5 games. averaging more than 4 shots per game he's played.
..we only have 13 even strength goals for in 8 games. you normally want to see this number around 2.25 per game.
..our average roster age is 27.8. 17th youngest in the league. funny, feels like we are young.
..we are averaging about 2 shots less per game than league average.
..we are allowing about 3 shots per game less than league average.
..we are taking about 1 penalty per game more than the league average.
..forsberg is on pace for 113 points. and 61 goals. i'm guessing this won't hold up.
..the forwards getting the fewest percentage of their shot on net (-blocked/missing) are smith 48%, fiala 37%, watson 33%. (forwards typically average about 60% +).
..we only have 3 people with more than 2 even strength points. forsberg 5, johansen 3, subban 3.
..if rinne's save percentage (.932) was league average (.917) we would have given up 4 more goals than we have in his 6 starts.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

I didn't realize that linemates made one slow as ****. And I have more faith in Salomaki than Åberg.

Hartnell has always been slow. In fact, he's in better shape this year than last after losing 15 pounds. Being slow didn't stop him from posting dominant even strength numbers in Columbus or Philly for that matter. Linemates that are lost and awful on offense will though.

 

[NSH615]

Hartnell has always been slow. In fact, he's in better shape this year than last after losing 15 pounds. Being slow didn't stop him from posting dominant even strength numbers in Columbus or Philly for that matter. Linemates that are lost and awful on offense will though.

I understand that, but Hartnell due to his slow speed, is more dependant on these guys. And I honestly thing Jarnkrok is the problem here. No matter where he goes this year (even last year for that matter) he's a black hole. Much like Olli Jokinen was in his short stint here.

 

[NSH615]

No Jagr tomorrow.

 

[Pred303]

303.. what's your view on emelin weber bitetto irwin? I'm calling them WIBE. maybe im a little critical of our guys but i can't find anything positive to say about any of them really.

sorry noneck, didn't see this.

a small part of the problem i think we have seen from some of our bottom d-men is the fact we have had to play some of the left handed dmen on their offhand side because of our shortage of right handed guys. (emelin, irwin, girard and ekholm all been forced to play on the right side at times because of the ellis/weber injuries). this tends to get them in trouble attempting to clear the puck and it's a nuance in positioning that sometimes causes mistakes.

part of the problem is that the 4 guys you mention all are weaker puck movers in general and need strong puckmovers as pair mates to hide that. and at times they have been paired up with each other which is asking for trouble.

part of the problem is of course we have been forced to play irwin and emelin 2nd pair type roles and minutes and they aren't 2nd pair type talents.

part of irwin and weber's trouble are they simply aren't that good lol.

i think the jury is still out on bitetto being a better third pair guy than irwin on the left side, but it looks like we think irwin is better.

with everyone healthy i think a third pair of emelin-weber might be passable. maybe.

 

[Pred303]

I understand that, but Hartnell due to his slow speed, is more dependant on these guys. And I honestly thing Jarnkrok is the problem here. No matter where he goes this year (even last year for that matter) he's a black hole. Much like Olli Jokinen was in his short stint here.

just watching these first few games my thoughts here are that for hartnell to be good even strength he needs to be on a 'good possession' line. he needs time in the offensive zone to get to the front of the net and cause chaos like he can do on the PP. so logically to me it seems that hartnell would be more effective even strngth with a guy like sissons as his centerman (a possession griding type of guy) instead of a guy like jarnkrok (not a possession type guy as one can tell from his corsi). harts isn't a transition type of counterattacker with his speed and skillset (even though he tends to cheat up ice more than our other forwards lol). more of a set piece type of guy. so we need to get him in that position more. maybe a harts-sisson-smith type of line.

of course it also looks as if bonino is more of a grinding type of offensive player, so that 'should' work in making harts more effective even strength as well. i don't think jarnkrok or gaudreau are logical centermen on the surface for him.

 

[Armourboy]

Nothing about Jarnkrok is grinding, frankly he needs to be on a wing. Still think we need to bring Kaamanev up and see what happens while Bonino is out. If he isn't ready at this point for at least the 3rd line, I think it's about time to stop thinking about him as a serious contender for the NHL.

Gaudreau frankly just needs two guys to help push the play that can do something when given the chance. McLeod is pretty rough in that regard.

 

[Scoresberg]

We should look Jarny's numbers from last year. Who did he play with last year?

 

[Legionnaire11]

We should look Jarny's numbers from last year. Who did he play with last year?

https://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/?player1=Calle+Jarnkrok&flag=y

Probably Wilson and Neal

 

[Scoresberg]

Yeah, I'd give Kamenev a look with Bones out. Jarny can produce like 3C but he has to have wingers that drive the play. Wouldn't be opposed to putting him on the wing.

All-in-all, something has to be done to our bottom-9 to get it producing. Jofa and our defense have carried our offense this year.

And of course, Lavy takes out the kid who scores 3 points in 3 games. Just play Girard, we can get some offense from there time to time.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

Jarnkrok cannot produce like a 3C, not with typical 3C minutes and linemates. If you want to give him linemates like Neal, Wilson, Arvidsson etc. he can put up very low end 3C numbers while dragging them down...

Jarnkrok finished 89th overall in scoring among centers last year despite only missing one game. For reference, here are his 6 most common linemates at even strength, in order:

Neal
Wilson
Watson
Fiala
Arvidsson
Forsberg

I hate to keep harping on this because I actually do like Jarnkrok for what he is. It isn't his fault that he's being horribly miscast by the coaching staff. I'd give him a run as a RW in the muddled up middle 6 and let him focus on goal scoring and helping on defense. If that doesn't work out, he should be glued to the 4th line and PK unit and nowhere else.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

sorry noneck, didn't see this.

a small part of the problem i think we have seen from some of our bottom d-men is the fact we have had to play some of the left handed dmen on their offhand side because of our shortage of right handed guys. (emelin, irwin, girard and ekholm all been forced to play on the right side at times because of the ellis/weber injuries). this tends to get them in trouble attempting to clear the puck and it's a nuance in positioning that sometimes causes mistakes.

part of the problem is that the 4 guys you mention all are weaker puck movers in general and need strong puckmovers as pair mates to hide that. and at times they have been paired up with each other which is asking for trouble.

part of the problem is of course we have been forced to play irwin and emelin 2nd pair type roles and minutes and they aren't 2nd pair type talents.

part of irwin and weber's trouble are they simply aren't that good lol.

i think the jury is still out on bitetto being a better third pair guy than irwin on the left side, but it looks like we think irwin is better.

with everyone healthy i think a third pair of emelin-weber might be passable. maybe.

maybe i see things differently but i see irwin as our worst defenseman. i think bitetto should rotate as the 6/7 defenseman and girard should be in every night as we need puck movers. girard for sure in. josi, ekholm, subban, girard, weber, and then emelin. whenever one of weber or emelin struggles, plug bitetto in.

emelin sure isn't worth his pay. that's for sure. none of them can get the puck out of the zone. it's almost like when I'm watching, i just wait for josi/ekholm to get on the ice ES because that's about the only way we generate offense is when they are on the ice. i just sit there and hope we aren't scored on while WIBE is on the ice.