Observations, Part VIII

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mikemcburn

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Oct 23, 2013
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- Start the game off strong
- Outshoot the opponent by a large margin through the first period
- Despite the shot totals, go into the second period tied or with a small lead
- Let up a fair amount in the second
- The shot totals begin to even out
- Give up a goal or two, generally the result of a bad penalty or crucial mistake
- Begin the third period tied or down one goal.
- Attack fairly efficiently with no goals
- Take a dumb penalty
- Eventually give up the GWG/goal that puts the game away
- Lose

This seems to happen all too frequently these days

Yup. That about sums it up well.

Which is kinda why I go back to looking at the coach. As in the guy responsible to draw up the game plan and the guy whose job it is to ensure the players are ready to play effectively every shift.

When it's 1 or 2 players struggling for a stretch, it's a player thing. This isn't a 1 or 2 player issue though, and it's been going on a lot longer than just since Fisher and Wilson went down. So, I just keep thinking it's a coaching thing.
 

NSH615

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Feb 13, 2013
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NINE shots on goal combined in the last 2 periods.

That is pathetic- pretty much says it all

I know there were more that were not counted. At the arena, I watched the puck bounce off of the Calgary goalie's pads 3 times and 0 shots went on the board. This was when we had 20 shots on the board. And that wasn't the only time.
 

Phototropic

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I was down on Jarnkrok for the game-winner against last night - I mean the kid went all in for the offense and then was so tuckered out from the effort that he was ambling back to the bench when the opposing 2-on-1 he'd created was building up speed thru the neutral zone. Not especially "smart" to press for the offensive rush if you're not even gonna have the energy to scramble off the ice so your replacement has a chance of catching up with the bad guys.
Saw this last night as well, so just thought I'd point out that Jarnkrok did nothing wrong on that play. He was the lone forward and went to the net, got checked in the back, and still got up and was ahead of the last man back for CGY. Josi made the mistake of trying to go behind the net without possession, not Jarnkrok.
 

mikemcburn

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Saw this last night as well, so just thought I'd point out that Jarnkrok did nothing wrong on that play. He was the lone forward and went to the net, got checked in the back, and still got up and was ahead of the last man back for CGY. Josi made the mistake of trying to go behind the net without possession, not Jarnkrok.

Yeah, I saw it the way you did, for sure. But I interpret that play in a 3-on-3 format as being short of conservative scruples by both players.

Josi went in deep, around, and then back out again (gotta wonder if he's trying too much solo himself, seeing how he had Jarnkrok well positioned in the slot and a slew of time/space to make a move that didn't involve totally resetting in the neutral zone) recharging... On the second entry attempt, Josi gained the ground before passing off to Weber, then as Weber is taking the shot wide, Jarnkrok is getting himself smushed in front/to side of the net and by then Josi probably had every expectation that he'd come out from behind the net with possession again.

With Weber still last man back, I can't fault Josi for going in deep (he's learning that brute force works for him afterall, lol) or for Jarnkrok going to the net (admire the heart). I also can't fault Jarnkrok for getting smushed (I've oft wondered about the legality of smacking a player flat down who hasn't even touched the puck), or Josi for following-up with the expectation of recapturing the puck behind the net. Watch the play in slow mo and it's easy not to fault either guy for a thing; they had Weber as last man back and played their o-game.

Also, to Jarnkrok's credit, he has to run a fine line between conservative play knowing his own limitations (meaning the likelihood of being turned into a useless smush in key situations) and playing with enough liberal in his bones that his tenaciousness and energy can compensate for the lack of physical strength.

That said, it's a 3-on-3 OT format and Jarnkrok knew from both Josi's first breach attempt and from how Josi was circling in deep after his pass off to Web (if not also from a fan viewpoint of the whole Josi dynamic), that there was only gonna be Weber on the back end. Meaning he'd have known his choice to go for retrieving the board rebound rather than circling out to high slot was a chancy gambit. And he took it, fair enough.

Unless he was beaten up on the smushing though, he ought to have been high gearing it back into the defensive play (like Josi, incidentally) to cover up the failed effort. Instead, without possession and knowing Josi was equally in deep, he turned into a danger zone, got smushed, and meandered back to the bench just in time for Ribeiro to take the +/- hit.

Again in slow mo, Jarnkrok gets up quickly (so how could there be a real bruising?), takes two quick strides clearly going straight toward the bench, then stops skating altogether and reverts to gliding altogether at near the ozone hashmarks - never once even looking at the developing play headed toward his own net.

Now if that's because Jarnkrok was simply bushed after a long game, including 4 shifts in the final 4:38 minutes of regulation (so like, 5 shifts in the final 5 minutes of the game) and then being smushed down like a rag doll, I feel for him and mostly fault the coach for his questionable habit of trying to get by as much as possible on 3 lines for the last half of near every game. But to the extent Jarnkrok is supposed to be this really smart guy with a slew of heart on sleeve and didn't appear to suffer any actual bruising from the smack down - well, then I fault the player for his lazy glide back to the bench. Least he should do if he's gonna take the risk (while knowing he's got a dman engaged in the rush) is be prepared to butt beat it back to the bench when it don't work out well.

All in though, I fault the coach. Jarnkrok is being put in well over his head and it's showing up in every stat category as well as in his in-game decisions. One quickie small fix would be to merely play the 3rd line like it existed instead - it would spread the ice time around, sure, but it'd also serve to save the energy. Jarnkrok just shouldn't be playing 5 shifts in 5 minutes of game time. He's actually not that good.
 

Phototropic

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I would think that with Jarnkrok behind the 2 on 1, it makes a lot more sense to make the change as the new player would get down ice quicker anyway, but who knows. Point is, I don't think you can take a potshot at his hockey smarts for anythng on that play.
 

Jarnberg

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When your team only scores about a goal a game, breaking down a mistake by a player doesn't really make a ton of sense, whether it be Jones, Jarnkrok, Forsberg, Pekka, whoever. We can't ask our players to be perfect every second of every game. If we want to start breaking down plays, how about how we continually fail to put up offense. Start scoring more and the single defensive mistake we have each game doesn't matter as much.
 

Armourboy

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Jan 20, 2014
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Mike your witch hunts of Jarnkrok are starting to sound a lot like Byrd and his hate of Smith lol.

Its really hard to say what happened. Did he get up quick and take a stride or two and something hurt? Was he just out of gas? Did he just brain fart? Only dude who knows really is Jarnkrok.

Fact is there is enough blame to go around on this team. I've about decided part of the problem is coaching. I'm really wondering if Lavi isn't just trying to sit on a lead, any lead. I mean when the coaches talk you don't get that, but damn if his line use doesn't say otherwise most of the time.

I'm not entirely sure what it is at this point, but if you keep doing the same things and the same things keep happening game after game, you need to change something you are doing. Pretty much goes for most of our problems, from the PK to the PP to 3 on 3, just keeps trying to pound a square peg into a round hole.
 

NSH615

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Feb 13, 2013
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Mike your witch hunts of Jarnkrok are starting to sound a lot like Byrd and his hate of Smith lol.

Its really hard to say what happened. Did he get up quick and take a stride or two and something hurt? Was he just out of gas? Did he just brain fart? Only dude who knows really is Jarnkrok.

Fact is there is enough blame to go around on this team. I've about decided part of the problem is coaching. I'm really wondering if Lavi isn't just trying to sit on a lead, any lead. I mean when the coaches talk you don't get that, but damn if his line use doesn't say otherwise most of the time.

I'm not entirely sure what it is at this point, but if you keep doing the same things and the same things keep happening game after game, you need to change something you are doing. Pretty much goes for most of our problems, from the PK to the PP to 3 on 3, just keeps trying to pound a square peg into a round hole.

That's my opinion on the matter. We should be full on attack except when killing penalties and maybe the last couple of minutes of a game when we have a lead.
 

MrJoshua

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I don't understand why the Gaustad line sees any ice time except when killing penalties, tied, or ahead. Why do they ever get on the ice when the team is trailing, especially in the third period?
 

Byrddog

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Nov 23, 2007
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I don't understand why the Gaustad line sees any ice time except when killing penalties, tied, or ahead. Why do they ever get on the ice when the team is trailing, especially in the third period?

Because Lavi is trying to run 3 scoring lines who by the 3rd period are gassed from fiddle farting around trying to make great hockey plays when there current talent level does not support them doing so. FF9 love the guy but he is skating around like he is OV and is unstoppable in the offensive zone Neal who does have the talent is shut down shift after shift because there is nobody out there that is a threat to score other than him. And most of all we have Jarnkrok as the current 1C. A guy that could not produce as a 3C is now being tried in the 1 slot. Jarnkrok is no better than 4th line center and I question if he deserves to be there.
 

sparkle twin

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Jul 31, 2002
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Bring back the shootout, we were pretty good at that, three on three we suck. That was predicted last summer when the change was announced. I thought naw, we'll hold our own 3 on 3, but we are horrible.
The shootout is still there. We just can't seem to make it through the OT part to actually get to the shootout. :cry:

The first period looked like the Chicago game minus the goals. After that is when things went mediocre, just like the Chicago game. The difference in the two games was we were up 3-0 after the 1st vs Chicago and only had a 1 goal lead this time. So I guess really this game looked like the Chicago game IMO minus the scoring outbreak we had. Dominating 1st period in both games and mediocre 2nd and 3rd periods in both games.
Most of our games are like this. Come out strong and dominate the 1st period. But if they don't score on their chances, they get frustrated and lose their confidence. And then it gets worse when they make one single mistake and it ends up as a goal against. The other team starts a push-back, we never really recover until into the third, but then it's too late.

It's the same thing every game. If they don't get goals on their shots and chances, they'll lose, every time. It's why they come out so flat in the second period. Frustrated they can't score and no confidence that anything they do will actually produce a goal.
 

Pred303

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ok I'm settled down enough to think back now on the CGY game, despite it still hurting to do so. a few quick observations before they get lost in tonight's game;

..CGY got hosed on the no goal allowed 5 on 3 replay. have watched and rewatched it and I see white between the puck and the goalline. stunned it wasn't overruled in TOR.
..shame of it all was that was a truly great kill on that 5 on 3 and should have been a momentum turner for us. the crowd and momentum simply died during the long delay for the review.
..I'm not a gaustad fan, but he came up big blocking shots on that 5 on 3.
..people (and me) get frustrated at us coming out so hard and then going so soft the last two periods. but one has to be honest, a team simply cann't maintain that much energy for 60 minutes as we had in the first. especially when all that energy expended only produces a single goal.
..Forsberg and ribeiro have become turnover machines in the offensive zone/ Forsberg because he is trying to do everything himself, and ribs because he makes the same move everytime, stopping halfway down the halfboard and looking for a pass. teams now simply double him and take the puck away. he needs to start skating the puck to the center of the ice so teams cann't use the halfboard to box him in.
..honestly, Forsberg was awful and charged with zero giveaways, which is a statistical lie.
..once again, a breakdown in our forwards defense cost us the goal that tied it. Forsberg lost out at blueline and neal caught looking just lets another defenseman walk down the slot.
..shame too, because we had played an excellent defensive game right till then.
..sissons with a great centering pass to spring hodgson on the breakaway, that got lost because of the penalty shot. great shot by hodgson.
..I cuss everytime I see the 2nd pp unit on ice.

on to the OT;
..to hear weber say we haven't practiced the 3 on 3 is inexcusable.
..we don't have enough forward talent for 3 on 3's but to see josi and weber being out there together is ridiculous.
..weber's slapshot is too dangerous for 3 on 3 play, because of how often he misses the net, causing wild rebounds and setting up counters.
..we simply don't have enough speed up front to be good at this which is a game of counterattacks and odd man rushes.
..weber with the missed shot setting up the 2 on 1, then miss played the 2 on 1 not taking away the pass. was a horrible last 5 minutes for him counting the stupid, stupid penalty with 2 minutes to go in regulation.
..didn't take a rocket scientist to tell all your buddies with 8 minutes to go, we lose this one early in OT tonight. which I did.
..we're going to lose most every game when we get no goals from your top 6.
..I have to admit, I have to almost cover my face in fear watching jones handle the puck out at the blueline in OT

..preds called yesterday to ask me to be the military honoree for the game Saturday but turned it down because there are many so much more deserving . thanks anyway Melissa and Brian.
 
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Pred303

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right now it's easy to blame poile for some of our personnel struggles this year. but to be honest, when we headed into camp we pretty much all liked our roster and saw the possibilities just like he did. we looked at all the things that we expected out of players and so far, we have basically gotten an entire worse case scenario from each of the things we said couldn't happen;

these were the things we all feared or said needed to happen;
1)Forsberg wouldn't struggle thru a sophomore jinx. and obviously he has so far
2)ribeiro and fisher wouldn't age overnight. and they have
3)Wilson and smith would play at least as well as last year. they haven't
4)Fiala and Moses would make the team and give us much better depth. and of course they didn't
5)the pp would be better than last year. it has been.
6)the pk would be better than last year. it's been worse
7)hutton needed to play better or we need another backup. he has so far.
8)we worried about the change to 3 on 3 taking away our advantage of having so many good defensemen in 4 on 4. and we were unfortunately dead on.
9)that hodgson would help give goal scoring depth. and he's on pace for 7 for the year.

and then most of all we said we needed rinne to be the player he was last year early or at least have around a .920 save percentage if any of those things happened or didn't happen to cover up for any shortfall. and here he has a .906, well below even the league average.

yes, it's pretty much been an apocalypse of our worst case scenarios. almost everywhere. all put together.

and believe it or not, that's why I'm cautiously optimistic going forward. surely some of these things will get much better.
 

David Singleton

Registered User
Jun 23, 2005
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Dickson, TN
ok I'm settled down enough to think back now on the CGY game, despite it still hurting to do so. a few quick observations before they get lost in tonight's game;

..CGY got hosed on the no goal allowed 5 on 3 replay. have watched and rewatched it and I see white between the puck and the goalline. stunned it wasn't overruled in TOR.
..shame of it all was that was a truly great kill on that 5 on 3 and should have been a momentum turner for us. the crowd and momentum simply died during the long delay for the review.
..I'm not a gaustad fan, but he came up big blocking shots on that 5 on 3.
..people (and me) get frustrated at us coming out so hard and then going so soft the last two periods. but one has to be honest, a team simply cann't maintain that much energy for 60 minutes as we had in the first. especially when all that energy expended only produces a single goal.
..Forsberg and ribeiro have become turnover machines in the offensive zone/ Forsberg because he is trying to do everything himself, and ribs because he makes the same move everytime, stopping halfway down the halfboard and looking for a pass. teams now simply double him and take the puck away. he needs to start skating the puck to the center of the ice so teams cann't use the halfboard to box him in.
..honestly, Forsberg was awful and charged with zero giveaways, which is a statistical lie.
..once again, a breakdown in our forwards defense cost us the goal that tied it. Forsberg lost out at blueline and neal caught looking just lets another defenseman walk down the slot.
..shame too, because we had played an excellent defensive game right till then.
..sissons with a great centering pass to spring hodgson on the breakaway, that got lost because of the penalty shot. great shot by hodgson.
..I cuss everytime I see the 2nd pp unit on ice.

on to the OT;
..to hear weber say we haven't practiced the 3 on 3 is inexcusable.
..we don't have enough forward talent for 3 on 3's but to see josi and weber being out there together is ridiculous.
..weber's slapshot is too dangerous for 3 on 3 play, because of how often he misses the net, causing wild rebounds and setting up counters.
..we simply don't have enough speed up front to be good at this which is a game of counterattacks and odd man rushes.
..weber with the missed shot setting up the 2 on 1, then miss played the 2 on 1 not taking away the pass. was a horrible last 5 minutes for him counting the stupid, stupid penalty with 2 minutes to go in regulation.
..didn't take a rocket scientist to tell all your buddies with 8 minutes to go, we lose this one early in OT tonight. which I did.
..we're going to lose most every game when we get no goals from your top 6.
..I have to admit, I have to almost cover my face in fear watching jones handle the puck out at the blueline in OT

..preds called yesterday to ask me to be the military honoree for the game tonight but turned it down because there are many so much more deserving . thanks anyway Melissa and Brian.

Forsberg....

Forsberg has started to learn how to physically protect the puck at certain times, particularly with his "butt-check" lately when near the boards, but he hasn't put it all together yet (reasonable with his age).

He's being asked and/or feels compelled to carry that line as no one else can with Ribeiro's current trend. At this age, he needs real help. Neal is perfect as the defense must respect his shot. Ribeiro either gets smothered or his passing options eliminated since the defense knows that he won't shoot the vast majority of the time. A center that can be a playmaker while having a decisive and quick shot would be an ideal fit between Forsberg and Neal (which is why Jarnkrok is being tried- he's decisive and has been working on the quickness of his shot).

Long term, Forberg is going be able to bring more physical play to the ice in the offensive zone and will be able to protect the puck by more than just "dangles". He's already a gifted playmaker and shooter that can handle the puck very well, so the physical game is the most significant skill he needs to hone. He might not ever be Jagr or Peter Forsberg, but in the next year or so I think he will develop a similar skill set and will be able to carry a line much better than he can now.

My thoughts anyway.
 

tampa pred

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Jul 8, 2014
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right now it's easy to blame poile for some of our personnel struggles this year. but to be honest, when we headed into camp we pretty much all liked our roster and saw the possibilities just like he did. we looked at all the things that we expected out of players and so far, we have basically gotten an entire worse case scenario from each of the things we said couldn't happen;

these were the things we all feared or said needed to happen;
1)Forsberg wouldn't struggle thru a sophomore jinx. and obviously he has so far
2)ribeiro and fisher wouldn't age overnight. and they have
3)Wilson and smith would play at least as well as last year. they haven't
4)Fiala and Moses would make the team and give us much better depth. and of course they didn't
5)the pp would be better than last year. it has been.
6)the pk would be better than last year. it's been worse
7)hutton needed to play better or we need another backup. he has so far.
8)we worried about the change to 3 on 3 taking away our advantage of having so many good defensemen in 4 on 4. and we were unfortunately dead on.
9)that hodgson would help give goal scoring depth. and he's on pace for 7 for the year.

and then most of all we said we needed rinne to be the player he was last year early or at least have around a .920 save percentage if any of those things happened or didn't happen to cover up for any shortfall. and here he has a .906, well below even the league average.

yes, it's pretty much been an apocalypse of our worst case scenarios. almost everywhere. all put together.

and believe it or not, that's why I'm cautiously optimistic going forward. surely some of these things will get much better.
Spot on on all points. We needed Wilson, Smith, Forsberg, and Ribs to at least maintain their play from last year, and all have been worse.

The 3-on-3 is absolutely killing us. Turns what was an advantage for us to a huge disadvantage. Whichever team has the best skilled forwards will win 3-on-3 80% of the time; and we don't have them...

The positive outlook is that despite all of these things, we are still in decent position to make the playoffs. If any of our forwards or Pekka can get hot, we can move up in the standings pretty quick.
 

drwpreds

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Mar 19, 2012
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Birmingham
right now it's easy to blame poile for some of our personnel struggles this year. but to be honest, when we headed into camp we pretty much all liked our roster and saw the possibilities just like he did. we looked at all the things that we expected out of players and so far, we have basically gotten an entire worse case scenario from each of the things we said couldn't happen;

these were the things we all feared or said needed to happen;
1)Forsberg wouldn't struggle thru a sophomore jinx. and obviously he has so far
2)ribeiro and fisher wouldn't age overnight. and they have
3)Wilson and smith would play at least as well as last year. they haven't
4)Fiala and Moses would make the team and give us much better depth. and of course they didn't
5)the pp would be better than last year. it has been.
6)the pk would be better than last year. it's been worse
7)hutton needed to play better or we need another backup. he has so far.
8)we worried about the change to 3 on 3 taking away our advantage of having so many good defensemen in 4 on 4. and we were unfortunately dead on.
9)that hodgson would help give goal scoring depth. and he's on pace for 7 for the year.

and then most of all we said we needed rinne to be the player he was last year early or at least have around a .920 save percentage if any of those things happened or didn't happen to cover up for any shortfall. and here he has a .906, well below even the league average.

yes, it's pretty much been an apocalypse of our worst case scenarios. almost everywhere. all put together.

and believe it or not, that's why I'm cautiously optimistic going forward. surely some of these things will get much better
.

This is what I have been saying over and over.

When you look at your post above- it really is true that just about EVERY SINGLE THING about this team has gone wrong this year.

If I didn't know our record and just read your post I would think we would be having a season similar to what Columbus is having.

But instead we are still somehow, someway miraculously still solidly in the playoffs and right there in the battle for 2nd in the Central.

I will admit I am no longer optimistic about this actually happening, but what if this is going to be the low point- that this is our slump for the year?? Just imagine if our bad stretch last year had been at the beginning of the season and not the end- what if we started this year 6-12-3 (which is what our record was for the final 21 last year)?

It is a heck of a lot easier to rebound from 15-10-6 than 6-12-3. At this point, I am just looking for any ray of hope to hang on to, and this is about all we have right now.
 

Scoresberg

In Trotz We Trust?
May 28, 2015
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"I guarantee you that we will have 3 scoring lines next season. We have so much variations and highly offensive skilled forwards (especially if Vesey comes) that we can easily put up 3 scoring lines."

I said this on the Steve Moses thread in July. Oh, how stupid can a man be :D.
 

Scoresberg

In Trotz We Trust?
May 28, 2015
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This is what I have been saying over and over.

When you look at your post above- it really is true that just about EVERY SINGLE THING about this team has gone wrong this year.

If I didn't know our record and just read your post I would think we would be having a season similar to what Columbus is having.

But instead we are still somehow, someway miraculously still solidly in the playoffs and right there in the battle for 2nd in the Central.

I will admit I am no longer optimistic about this actually happening, but what if this is going to be the low point- that this is our slump for the year?? Just imagine if our bad stretch last year had been at the beginning of the season and not the end- what if we started this year 6-12-3 (which is what our record was for the final 21 last year)?

It is a heck of a lot easier to rebound from 15-10-6 than 6-12-3. At this point, I am just looking for any ray of hope to hang on to, and this is about all we have right now.

Been thinking about this, too. We can still come back from this regardless of how bad it looks right now.
 

Drake744

#manrocket
Feb 12, 2010
12,645
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This is what I have been saying over and over.

When you look at your post above- it really is true that just about EVERY SINGLE THING about this team has gone wrong this year.

If I didn't know our record and just read your post I would think we would be having a season similar to what Columbus is having.

But instead we are still somehow, someway miraculously still solidly in the playoffs and right there in the battle for 2nd in the Central.

I will admit I am no longer optimistic about this actually happening, but what if this is going to be the low point- that this is our slump for the year?? Just imagine if our bad stretch last year had been at the beginning of the season and not the end- what if we started this year 6-12-3 (which is what our record was for the final 21 last year)?

It is a heck of a lot easier to rebound from 15-10-6 than 6-12-3. At this point, I am just looking for any ray of hope to hang on to, and this is about all we have right now.
Counter point....maybe it's a telling sign that the losing happened to end last year and to begin this year. As in, maybe we just caught fire against crap teams last season for a long time and then our true colors showed and haven't gone away since.
 

drwpreds

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Mar 19, 2012
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I will say this though- come January 1 we will know a whole heck of a lot more about where we stand and what chance we have at competing this year. We begin a BRUTAL 7 game stretch to close out 2015 tonight:

@ St Louis
MINNESOTA
MONTREAL
DETROIT
NYR
@ St Louis
@ Dallas

The depressing part about that is even if we do turn it around and start playing well the best we can probably hope for is 4-3 or 5-2 if we are very lucky.

We really blew it with our most recent stretch of the schedule. We just completed an 11 game stretch where the schedule was VERY favorable, and we failed miserably. In that stretch, we played 7 games against what I would consider non-elite teams:

@ Buffalo
@ Philly
BUFFALO
ARIZONA
FLORIDA
COLORADO
CALGARY

And even with 5 of them at home, our record in those 7?

2-4-1

Complete fail..........
 

bdub24

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Wouldn't a complete fail be 0-7-0? I mean cmon, these are all professional teams and they play to win too.
 

Pred303

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It's official. We are either the best bad team in the league or the worst good team. Cann't decide which right now. And what's more I don't really care at this point.
 
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