Observations, Part VI

[Soundgarden]

Awful is just about right. Does anyone on this board like the new helmets? Anyone???

Ahem... If they were a little lighter maybe? I'll wait to see them on ice before I say they are downright awful, but I've always liked the unconventional things like this.

 

[Predsboro]

I thought the idea of "golden" helmets was going to be cool when I first heard about them .... wow .... was I wrong.

Hideous ....

 

[Armourboy]

I think it's the combo more than the gold helmets themselves, might look better with a blue jersey, then again, might just look like a bobble head.

 

[PredsV82]

I think it's the combo more than the gold helmets themselves, might look better with a blue jersey, then again, might just look like a bobble head bucket of peepee.

fixed

 

[Privy]

 

[Pred303]

ok, the roster is basically set, one week to go before opening night. time to talk real hockey and what realistic expectations probably should be.

when the playoffs finished, most everyone agreed we needed to make some changes if we wanted to really improve. a better pp, better third line scoring, overall forward imrpovement, a better 6th defenseman, better backup goalie. thise were the consensus changes most thought we needed.

as the roster has settled out we seem to have possibly addressed a few of these things, not all.

...really the differences between last year and now are;
1)we've replaced stalberg/jokinen with arvidsson
2)we've replaced cullen.jarnkrok with hodgson
3)we've then replaced beck/santorelli with jarnrkok
4)we're replaced volchenkov with jackman

it should be an improvement in all 4. it's not as much as i wished, as i had counted on fiala/moses being significant upgrades (which they still could be later). arvidsson and hodgson. obviously we really need them to be much better than who they replaced. i think they will be, but one never knows these things. i still have those hopes.

..our defense will be solid. top 5 type solid. i expect us to hold opponents to roughly 28-29 shots a game and roughly 200-205 goals allowed (<2.5 gpg). (202 last year)
..i expect our offense to only be slightly improved over the 226 last year. maybe around the 230 range.

which means we are going to have a lot of close games. so as with all teams, especially in the central, our point total will depend hugely on what type of goaltending you get.

this is rinne's team, again. his health and save percentage will determine where we finish. let's assume he gets 64-68 starts. any less and we will be in trouble we all know, as at best we hope to go .500 with hutton in net. if he gets that many starts one can pretty well predict what point total we probably wind up with come year end.

in my mind (remember his career save % is .919, has had a .902, .910, 911 lows and .930, .923, .923 in three best years);
.930... 110 points (probable conference champs)
.925... 105 points (fighting for division champ)
.920... 100 points (probable wild card)
.915... 95 points (probable playoff miss)
.910... 90 points (out of playoffs disaster)

his save percentage will determine our finish.

 

[MrJoshua]

I think one big question is how much of a bounce-back season we see from Neal. 23G 14A last season. The goals were nice, but I was disappointed to see less than 40 points from him. I think if he can stay healthy we ought to see better offense from him this season. I'm thinking at least 5 additional goals, maybe 6 or more additional assists, to get him around the 45-50 point mark.

If he can do that and the third line can be even a LITTLE better than last season, and other players can continue their play, it's possible we'll see a pretty decent growth in goal scoring. Maybe 10 more goals than last year, which would take a little pressure off Pekka and the defense.

Of course, there were some big ifs in that sentence...

 

[Paranoid Android]

I think Moses is waiver exempt for the full year. From article 13.4 of the CBA: A Player 25 years old or older who plays in one (1) or more Professional Games in any season shall be exempt from Regular Waivers for the remainder of that season.

In his case, AHL games are considered professional games (same article): For Players age 20 or older, Professional Games include NHL Games, all minor league regular season and playoff games and any other professional games, including but not limited to, play in European leagues when Player is on Loan to such club, and while Player is party to an SPC.

Whoops, yea you're right. He's exempt all year. The chart I googled for some reason had 1 in the column but it should have been blank

 

[Paranoid Android]

I think one big question is how much of a bounce-back season we see from Neal. 23G 14A last season. The goals were nice, but I was disappointed to see less than 40 points from him. I think if he can stay healthy we ought to see better offense from him this season. I'm thinking at least 5 additional goals, maybe 6 or more additional assists, to get him around the 45-50 point mark.

If he can do that and the third line can be even a LITTLE better than last season, and other players can continue their play, it's possible we'll see a pretty decent growth in goal scoring. Maybe 10 more goals than last year, which would take a little pressure off Pekka and the defense.

Of course, there were some big ifs in that sentence...

Definitely agree about Neal. There's no sugar-coating it, he was a bit disappointing last season. He started off slow, then as soon as he got hot, he got injured. Going from Malkin/Crosby to Ribeiro/Fisher has got to be a bit of a shock, so now with a year under his belt I'm expecting a little more. A pace of 30-30 is really what we need from him.


He still has that game changing, "X" factor that I haven't seen here in a long time.

 

[predfan24]

Neal is a wild card. If he can find chemistry with someone over the course of a whole season he could be that piece that puts us over the top. If not you are still going to get decent production but nothing gaudy.

 

[mikemcburn]

Speaking of chemistry and fits, at the risk of worries over line numbers, I'd be curious how things shook out with some flip flopping of guys to plug left/right handed centers with left/right handed wings... That is, for example to plug left wingers who shoot left with centers who shoot left. There are obviously a lot of other factors that go into finding the right chemical mix for a trio (vision, quality of shot, size, speed, etc.), but if a winger is the sniper type then how he and his center shoots (left/right) shouldn't be underrated... A lineup example where the guy in bold is the lead sniper/closer -

Wilson (LH) - Riberio (LH) - Neal (LH)
Forsberg (RH) - Fisher (RH) - Jarnkrok (RH) * fixed
Smith (RH) - Hodgson (RH) - Arvidsson (RH)

 

[Drake744]

Speaking of chemistry and fits, at the risk of worries over line numbers, I'd be curious how things shook out with some flip flopping of guys to plug left/right handed centers with left/right handed wings... That is, for example to plug left wingers who shoot left with centers who shoot left. There are obviously a lot of other factors that go into finding the right chemical mix for a trio (vision, quality of shot, size, speed, etc.), but if a winger is the sniper type then how he and his center shoots (left/right) shouldn't be underrated... A lineup example where the guy in bold is the lead sniper/closer -

Wilson (LH) - Riberio (LH) - Neal (LH)
Forsberg (RH) - Fisher (RH) - Cullen (LH, oh well)
Smith (RH) - Hodgson (RH) - Arvidsson (RH)

Cullen is gone so that would leave Jarnkrok, who is a RH.

 

[mikemcburn]

Cullen is gone so that would leave Jarnkrok, who is a RH.

Thanks. My brain is fried, Calle Jarnkrok is who I meant, but clicked the name ahead of his Matt Cullen on the NHL stats page and copied/pasted. Blah.

 

[Pred303]

while we are talking somewhat about wing handedness and advantages/disadvantages might as well talk about it in a little more depth i guess.

you see many goal scorers/snipers that prefer to play their opposite handed wing because it gives them a 5-6' better shooting angle (ie closer to the slot), and puts them in a better/quicker position for one timers. it also allows a guy to cut off the halfboards directly across the slot on his forehand which puts him in a great spot to shoot. (just think of how many goals you've seen neal/erat/radulov do that over the years as lefties cutting off the right halfboards). again, generally guys that are playmakers or 'average' shooters prefer to play their handed wing so they can use their body as shields to handle the puck. and many goal scorers/snipers don't like to play their off hand wing because it basically often means shooting off the wrong foot that they have grown up learning to shoot from.

in years past guys playing their 'off hand' wing were rare because of a couple considerations. (some of which still apply). one is positioning for the breakout pass from their defensive end. a forward obviously normally faces his own net waiting for the breakout pass to come up ice from his d-man.if that forward is playing his same handed side (righty playing rw, lefty-LW) when he is facing his dman is in a position to take that breakout or stretch pass on his forehand side in stride without pause. if he's playing his 'off wing' he generally has to take that pass on his backhand or take the pass and then turn. harder to take any pass 'in stride' heading up ice.

this isn't as critical as it was when you had to first enter the neutral zone and then the offensive zone, but it still is a factor.

the other consideration is defensively. since most all d-men play their same handed side, any forward playing his off hand wing will face a guy whose forehand is on the opposite side, meaning he has to play the passing and shooting lane off his backhand defensive side. generally more difficult. so defensively playing ones off handed side is again considered generally a defensive weakness to a degree.

many might find this not interesting, but was just thinking it over outloud, sorry.

 

[FFWRX]

many might find this not interesting.

I doubt it. I like reading things like this that explain the intricacies of hockey.

 

[FFWRX]

I think the helmets don't work because there is nothing breaking the yellow up, and making it hard to match the jersey. The helmets in this picture look fine.

 

[Pred303]

i think the gold helmets look absolutely awful. will be as embarrassing as other teams fans hearing willy/stu on center ice. well ok, maybe the helemts won't be quite that bad compared to them but still.

 

[nomorekids]

i'm withholding judgment until i see them in an actual game setting. i think the colors are coming through "off" in pictures, and it's not unlike what LA did with the purple and gold throwbacks, and i thought they looked great.

 

[Filip Forceberg]

i think the gold helmets look absolutely awful. will be as embarrassing as other teams fans hearing willy/stu on center ice. well ok, maybe the helemts won't be quite that bad compared to them but still.

I think they'll look much better on the ice, but even if they don't they're only being used on Saturday home games anyway.

 

[TootooTrain]

Those aren't that bad because you have the black of the cages adding contrast. They can work, they just can't be entirely one solid colour.

 

[WartracePred]

while we are talking somewhat about wing handedness and advantages/disadvantages might as well talk about it in a little more depth i guess.

you see many goal scorers/snipers that prefer to play their opposite handed wing because it gives them a 5-6' better shooting angle (ie closer to the slot), and puts them in a better/quicker position for one timers. it also allows a guy to cut off the halfboards directly across the slot on his forehand which puts him in a great spot to shoot. (just think of how many goals you've seen neal/erat/radulov do that over the years as lefties cutting off the right halfboards). again, generally guys that are playmakers or 'average' shooters prefer to play their handed wing so they can use their body as shields to handle the puck. and many goal scorers/snipers don't like to play their off hand wing because it basically often means shooting off the wrong foot that they have grown up learning to shoot from.

in years past guys playing their 'off hand' wing were rare because of a couple considerations. (some of which still apply). one is positioning for the breakout pass from their defensive end. a forward obviously normally faces his own net waiting for the breakout pass to come up ice from his d-man.if that forward is playing his same handed side (righty playing rw, lefty-LW) when he is facing his dman is in a position to take that breakout or stretch pass on his forehand side in stride without pause. if he's playing his 'off wing' he generally has to take that pass on his backhand or take the pass and then turn. harder to take any pass 'in stride' heading up ice.

this isn't as critical as it was when you had to first enter the neutral zone and then the offensive zone, but it still is a factor.

the other consideration is defensively. since most all d-men play their same handed side, any forward playing his off hand wing will face a guy whose forehand is on the opposite side, meaning he has to play the passing and shooting lane off his backhand defensive side. generally more difficult. so defensively playing ones off handed side is again considered generally a defensive weakness to a degree.

many might find this not interesting, but was just thinking it over outloud, sorry.

I'm sure others appreciate the commentary as much as I do, even if they don't say so. I grew up here in TN watching football and baseball. Didn't start watching hockey till I was in my late 20s. Still have a lot to learn, even about some of the basics.

 

[FossilFndr]

i think the gold helmets look absolutely awful. will be as embarrassing as other teams fans hearing willy/stu on center ice. well ok, maybe the helemts won't be quite that bad compared to them but still.

You would look good in one Steve. Given a few scratches and some paint from beating your head against the Bridgestone bathroom walls in March..... hopefully not December.... they would develop a proper patina.

Can we send Stu down to Milwaukee?

Look forward to your analysis again, do pace yourself, we still need you going next June!

 

[Pred303]

i love this time of year.

the time where everyone and every team has high hopes. the time where every fan of every team assumes other teams older players will go downhill, but his own teams older players have another 2-3 years in them before they start declining. where everyone assumes their youngsters will step up and produce and surprise but young guys for enemies probably won't make a difference. where everyone assumes most everyone on their roster will score at least as many points as last year plus some for those that 'underperformed expectations' the past year, but other teams players have peaked.

we're all really somewhat blinded by optomism for our team, we cann't help it. we're fans and thats what we do. it's just part of what makes it all fun and new every year.

 

[mikemcburn]

i love this time of year.

the time where everyone and every team has high hopes. the time where every fan of every team assumes other teams older players will go downhill, but his own teams older players have another 2-3 years in them before they start declining. where everyone assumes their youngsters will step up and produce and surprise but young guys for enemies probably won't make a difference. where everyone assumes most everyone on their roster will score at least as many points as last year plus some for those that 'underperformed expectations' the past year, but other teams players have peaked.

we're all really somewhat blinded by optomism for our team, we cann't help it. we're fans and thats what we do. it's just part of what makes it all fun and new every year.

lol! Your observations are awesome! The dive into pros/cons of forwards playing off-wing made for a good read (bets on the other guy being right and there are lurkers around here who got something out of it too ;-)), but this one was funny. The best was "plus some for those 'underperformed expectations' of the past year", lol.

Oddly enough though, your commentary is also insanely backwards from the local groupie crowd here in B.C. where average joe fans seems over-the-top worried about their aging vets and appear to be petrified of other team's rookies. Still though, the locals natter on about the play-offs as being a done deal, something akin to their God-given right of entitlement. Go figure. Rip apart every off-season decision management has made, natter on about how *they* are chocked about paying $x for x player, but ra-ra, team is a shoe-in for the SCF.

Think I'd enjoy living in Nashville.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

while we are talking somewhat about wing handedness and advantages/disadvantages might as well talk about it in a little more depth i guess.

you see many goal scorers/snipers that prefer to play their opposite handed wing because it gives them a 5-6' better shooting angle (ie closer to the slot), and puts them in a better/quicker position for one timers. it also allows a guy to cut off the halfboards directly across the slot on his forehand which puts him in a great spot to shoot. (just think of how many goals you've seen neal/erat/radulov do that over the years as lefties cutting off the right halfboards). again, generally guys that are playmakers or 'average' shooters prefer to play their handed wing so they can use their body as shields to handle the puck. and many goal scorers/snipers don't like to play their off hand wing because it basically often means shooting off the wrong foot that they have grown up learning to shoot from.

in years past guys playing their 'off hand' wing were rare because of a couple considerations. (some of which still apply). one is positioning for the breakout pass from their defensive end. a forward obviously normally faces his own net waiting for the breakout pass to come up ice from his d-man.if that forward is playing his same handed side (righty playing rw, lefty-LW) when he is facing his dman is in a position to take that breakout or stretch pass on his forehand side in stride without pause. if he's playing his 'off wing' he generally has to take that pass on his backhand or take the pass and then turn. harder to take any pass 'in stride' heading up ice.

this isn't as critical as it was when you had to first enter the neutral zone and then the offensive zone, but it still is a factor.

the other consideration is defensively. since most all d-men play their same handed side, any forward playing his off hand wing will face a guy whose forehand is on the opposite side, meaning he has to play the passing and shooting lane off his backhand defensive side. generally more difficult. so defensively playing ones off handed side is again considered generally a defensive weakness to a degree.

many might find this not interesting, but was just thinking it over outloud, sorry.

To add a little to the defensive zone problem is that when trying to keep your stick active and in the passing lanes the top hand that is on the stick is to the outside of the ice. This is where you see stick-handling Dmen make plays against a winger that over compensates with his feet for the bad positioning of the stick blade.

Just read the James Neal piece. In the Chicago clip Seabrook has this exact defensive problem because he is a right handed dman being pulled to the left side. Same for Karlson in the other clip only on the other side. Stick to the outside of the ice leaves the cutback to the center open.