Speculation: Nylander XIV (on the block per Friedman)

[Mackiaveli]

If Toronto signs Nylander, Marner is gone. Given his production currently, that is less likely than signing Nylander.

Whether or not Nylander joins his brother Alex with the Sabres………..I'll just say that my thoughts on that happening were strengthened ten fold after comments made last night. Is it an insider info situation? No.
Is it a gut feeling? No.

I will say this, IF, it were to happen, it'll be a 3rd team involved.

Montreal could make sense; ROR return was supposedly Poehling + 2nd, so Buffalo is clearly high on Poehling

Poehling for A.Nylander 1:1

Petry + 2019/2020 2nd + Columbus 2019 2nd + Montreal 2019 4th for W.Nylander?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Again... elaborate please? Why do you feel this way? what makes you so sure?:

1. What are your expectations for the players in the deal?
2. What potentials do they have?
3. Is it likely that they will be reached?

You say it’s lopsided but Nylander is by far the best player in the deal... here is my evaluation as a leaf fan who knows more about Nylander than the Calgary players.

Bennett - is still not living up to near his potential to my knowledge.

Anderson -is a 22 year old defenseman who still hasn’t made it as a regular in the lineup, but clearly has potential and is a rh shot.

1st round pick - depends on standings of course

I admit, I know nothing about the Calgary players, hence the reason I was looking forward to a response from you describing why you think the deal is lopsided.

However, it’s pretty clear that you enjoy criticizing other posters opinions, significantly more than you enjoy your own opinions being critiqued.

Anderssen + 1st would be close to overpayment. Adding a solid young player in Bennett is what makes it silly. He's been excellent this season despite poor puck luck.

 

[Justin17]

TO NYI: William Nylander

TO TOR: Josh Bailey & Noah Dobson

That’s awful for the Islanders.

 

[The Mentalist]

Montreal could make sense; ROR return was supposedly Poehling + 2nd, so Buffalo is clearly high on Poehling

Poehling for A.Nylander 1:1

Petry + 2019/2020 2nd + Columbus 2019 2nd + Montreal 2019 4th for W.Nylander?

Toronto isn't going to trade Nylander within its division for Petry and bunch of 2nd round picks.

 

[Eltuna]

O'Reilly is a good example of what happens the extremely rare occasion when an RFA is willing to mercilessly exert what (little) leverage they have.

It's why people can bring up comparable contracts all they want, but they are useless if a player is willing to remain unsigned.

O'Reilly effectively gave the Avalanche no UFA years and was arguably paid close to UFA money as an RFA. (He averaged 5.5M over four post ELC seasons). That set him up to be traded and sign an extremely lucrative signing bonus filled UFA deal, again without giving up any UFA years on his lost ELC RFA extensions.

Comparables didn't mean anything to O'Reilly because he was ruthless with what little leverage he had. Before anybody says anything, I am not alluding to a Nylander offer sheet, only stating that if he is one of the rare RFAs willing to sit out an entire season of needed to go this route then comparables won't matter all that much.

I’ve compared the Nylander situation to ROR's Many times, they really are mirror images of each other so far. I also think if you want Nylander, maybe the best way is to use the ROR offersheet model where it’s a 2 year deal with a purposefully high poison pill second year to inflate the qualifying offer.

If for example a team offered a two year deal with the first year being 5 million and the second being 8.75 million, Nylanders qualifying offer in two years (when the Leafs need the cap space the most) would be a huge 8.75 million. It’s essentially a loophole that allows a team to sign him to a huge contract without giving up the offersheet compensation that comes with it. The Leafs would be forced to either lose him for less than market value now, or accept the offersheet and try and trade him in one calendar year and get less than market value at that point (since Nylander would have huge leverage and a team wouldn’t want to give up a ton of assets for a guy with such a big qualifying offer). Of course, a team would have to be really high on Nylander to offer it themselves.

 

[Mickey Marner]

yep, better listen to Flames fans saying how great their players are rather than look at the actual data. After all, you watch the games

Since 2015-16, the Flames with their three #1 defensemen have allowed 21 more goals than the Leafs. One of those years we were tanking for Matthews and the rest of the time our defense was mocked. Not sure what it is their defensemen are supposed to be good at, but goal prevention obviously isn't one of them.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Anderssen + 1st would be close to overpayment. Adding a solid young player in Bennett is what makes it silly. He's been excellent this season despite poor puck luck.

his "poor puck luck" involves a higher individual shooting percentage, oish%, and PDO than the last couple of years it seems. Maybe it's time to admit he's not a good player, especially in a deal for a talent like Nylander. Andersson has also been bad, but he has time to turn things around I guess

 

[DougGilmour93]

Montreal could make sense; ROR return was supposedly Poehling + 2nd, so Buffalo is clearly high on Poehling

Poehling for A.Nylander 1:1

Petry + 2019/2020 2nd + Columbus 2019 2nd + Montreal 2019 4th for W.Nylander?

Petry will never be a centrepiece in a deal for Nylander. Alex maybe...

 

[DougGilmour93]

Anderssen + 1st would be close to overpayment. Adding a solid young player in Bennett is what makes it silly. He's been excellent this season despite poor puck luck.

Puck luck. His whole career?

 

[DougGilmour93]

That’s awful for the Islanders.

Not great for the Leafs either...

 

[The Mentalist]

Points are a great way of gauging a defenseman.

Obviously not but do you really think Andersson is close in value to Nylander?

 

[JungleBeat]

Cody Ceci + Ryan Dzingel.

 

[BROCK HUGHES]

TO NYI: William Nylander

TO TOR: Josh Bailey & Noah Dobson

Wow islanders get shafted on that

 

[Mackiaveli]

Toronto isn't going to trade Nylander within its division for Petry and bunch of 2nd round picks.

Why not?

Petry is a legitimate 2D who can carry his pair; and he has done more than well playing 1D with invisible partners.

He is younger, not overly pricey, defensively responsible, able to play all-situations (5.5 x 3 - Habs could even eat 1-1.5m of that)

In the last two seasons, he ranks 24th in points (10 less than Rielly and Gardiner) despite being 42nd in TOI.

This season, he is 9th overall in points, 22nd overall in TOI.

Habs could give their 2019 1st conditionally with Petry; the condition being if the pick is in the top 10, Montreal instead concedes three 2nd round picks.

Albeit slightly outdated, if the Habs 2nd round picks are let's say 41, 43 and 56, they would value (approximately) to be equivalent as the 12th overall pick.

Given the situation Nylander is in, and the salary cap he is asking for; Montreal would be a perfect fit as they can not only offer you a cost-effective top 4 RD who can play with Rielly or Gardiner, but they can offer you a robust selection of picks to restock the cupboards.

 

[Mackiaveli]

Petry will never be a centrepiece in a deal for Nylander. Alex maybe...

I agree, if we were talking at the draft last year everyone would laugh me out of the room and rightfully so.

Toronto is under pressure to move him if they want to make the most out of this season (which they should be as it's the last year on the ELC's of Marner and Matthews) --- Regardless of whether or not people want to give him credit, Petry is a solid #2/#3 guy. Not only does he make them better now, but they will get to hold onto him at an affordable rate for the rest of his deal.

On top of that, they get draft picks to either restock the cupboard or use them as trade bait for UFA assets at the TDL (TOR 1st, MTL 2nd, CBJ 2nd for Panarin, maybe?)

 

[Confucius]

I’ve compared the Nylander situation to ROR's Many times, they really are mirror images of each other so far. I also think if you want Nylander, maybe the best way is to use the ROR offersheet model where it’s a 2 year deal with a purposefully high poison pill second year to inflate the qualifying offer.

If for example a team offered a two year deal with the first year being 5 million and the second being 8.75 million, Nylanders qualifying offer in two years (when the Leafs need the cap space the most) would be a huge 8.75 million. It’s essentially a loophole that allows a team to sign him to a huge contract without giving up the offersheet compensation that comes with it. The Leafs would be forced to either lose him for less than market value now, or accept the offersheet and try and trade him in one calendar year and get less than market value at that point (since Nylander would have huge leverage and a team wouldn’t want to give up a ton of assets for a guy with such a big qualifying offer). Of course, a team would have to be really high on Nylander to offer it themselves.

Leafs would take the 1st 2nd and 3rd, which I believe everyone agrees is William's worth. Then the offering team has a huge problem have given those 3 picks for 2 years of service. and now must qualify William at 8.75

 

[DougGilmour93]

Why not?

Petry is a legitimate 2D who can carry his pair; and he has done more than well playing 1D with invisible partners.

He is younger, not overly pricey, defensively responsible, able to play all-situations (5.5 x 3 - Habs could even eat 1-1.5m of that)

In the last two seasons, he ranks 24th in points (10 less than Rielly and Gardiner) despite being 42nd in TOI.

This season, he is 9th overall in points, 22nd overall in TOI.

Habs could give their 2019 1st conditionally with Petry; the condition being if the pick is in the top 10, Montreal instead concedes three 2nd round picks.

Albeit slightly outdated, if the Habs 2nd round picks are let's say 41, 43 and 56, they would value (approximately) to be equivalent as the 12th overall pick.

Given the situation Nylander is in, and the salary cap he is asking for; Montreal would be a perfect fit as they can not only offer you a cost-effective top 4 RD who can play with Rielly or Gardiner, but they can offer you a robust selection of picks to restock the cupboards.

If Nylander is going to Montreal, think Gallagher + Mete + 2nd.
Petry is a non starter.

 

[Liferleafer]

Why not?

Petry is a legitimate 2D who can carry his pair; and he has done more than well playing 1D with invisible partners.

He is younger, not overly pricey, defensively responsible, able to play all-situations (5.5 x 3 - Habs could even eat 1-1.5m of that)

In the last two seasons, he ranks 24th in points (10 less than Rielly and Gardiner) despite being 42nd in TOI.

This season, he is 9th overall in points, 22nd overall in TOI.

Habs could give their 2019 1st conditionally with Petry; the condition being if the pick is in the top 10, Montreal instead concedes three 2nd round picks.

Albeit slightly outdated, if the Habs 2nd round picks are let's say 41, 43 and 56, they would value (approximately) to be equivalent as the 12th overall pick.

Given the situation Nylander is in, and the salary cap he is asking for; Montreal would be a perfect fit as they can not only offer you a cost-effective top 4 RD who can play with Rielly or Gardiner, but they can offer you a robust selection of picks to restock the cupboards.

Younger? Petry?? He is about to turn 31. Easy....super easy pass.

 

[authentic]

I agree, if we were talking at the draft last year everyone would laugh me out of the room and rightfully so.

Toronto is under pressure to move him if they want to make the most out of this season (which they should be as it's the last year on the ELC's of Marner and Matthews) --- Regardless of whether or not people want to give him credit, Petry is a solid #2/#3 guy. Not only does he make them better now, but they will get to hold onto him at an affordable rate for the rest of his deal.

On top of that, they get draft picks to either restock the cupboard or use them as trade bait for UFA assets at the TDL (TOR 1st, MTL 2nd, CBJ 2nd for Panarin, maybe?)

Honestly I wouldn't be upset with that deal.

 

[Antropovsky]

Anderssen + 1st would be close to overpayment. Adding a solid young player in Bennett is what makes it silly. He's been excellent this season despite poor puck luck.

Interesting, I didn’t know Anderssen was such a great prospect.

What is his potential? Top pairing defenseman?

Personally I think that anderssen +1st seems much too high risk for Toronto management to consider.

If you’re trading Nylander, you need a for sure player in return. Leafs could be one piece away from a Stanley cup contender, if they squander Nylander and don’t get a difference maker in return, then that would be their worst case scenario.

they would risk being roasted as bad or even worse than chia and the hall deal.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

You think Dubas wants to P O his fanbase? Not likely, buy we'll see.

Do you really think Dubas cares about what HF Leafs fans want/think ?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Younger? Petry?? He is about to turn 31. Easy....super easy pass.

Saved me some time lol

 

[Growler]

If it’s a realistic option then no doubt you can find lots of examples since we entered the cap era.

There is only 1 other example of an RFA going this far in this cap era (O'Reilly), so all of this is uncharted territory. But it is just as much of an option as an offer sheet, a trade and a deal signing.

 

[Legend123]

Petry will never be a centrepiece in a deal for Nylander. Alex maybe...

lol good one.

 

[Eltuna]

Leafs would take the 1st 2nd and 3rd, which I believe everyone agrees is William's worth. Then the offering team has a huge problem have given those 3 picks for 2 years of service. and now must qualify William at 8.75

Like I said, it needs to be a team that really wants him. Basically if you’re a team like Carolina, you think, I have the choice of overpaying now in terms of trade assets, or overpay in two years in terms of salary (8.75 might not even seem crazy in two years). Pesce + an expensive Nylander might be more appealing than Nylander (probably still expensive based off his demands) + picks. You just need to find the right team, Buffalo gave ROR 7.5 at a time when that was considered a huge number, I’m sure there exists a team that thinks the same way about Nylander. This way you get him over his prime and you only need to trade picks to do it.