It's true. The top of the standings is usually consistent with important possession stats. Mainly due to the top teams having a clear difference in talent from the rest of the league. Over a 82 game span the difference is shown both with eye-test and excel sheets.
However, there's almost 0% chance the Leafs are going to miss the playoffs even if this stat doesn't change by this point. We've defied the norm as far as the regular season goes. After that, the possession stats break down. There's no "you must meet criteria x" anymore as far as the playoffs are concerned.
The only criteria afer that is the Leafs just have to play hard and finish their chances and get some saves..... and their odds are great. We will be a hard team to beat 4 times first in a 7 game span, that much I know for sure.