Confirmed Trade: [NSH/COL] Ryan Johansen (50% retained) to Colorado for rights to Alex Galchenyuk

[John Mandalorian]

I get what you are saying, but Colorado's pro scouting has been right so often that they've earned the benefit of the doubt from many fans.

For every Claude Giroux or Taylor Hall they're linked to, the Avalanche always end up with an Andrei Burakovsky or Artturi Lehkonen. They pretty much never get the "name" player, aside from maybe Darcy Kuemper.

As far as your question about the second line, Newhook is expected to go into the season as the 3C. Most fans are expecting the team to add another top-6 winger, which is possible partially due to this trade/Johansen's lower salary.

Though it might be true, the part about Newhook is an assumption.

Last year, the idea was to give Newhook a tryout at 2C for 3 or 4 months. That might have lasted about 3 or 4 games. Was making Compher 2C so soon about rejecting Newhook or was it more about Bednar's affinity for Compher?

One might think there could be somewhat of a rift between Bednar and the FO for not giving Newhook more of an opportunity. But Bednar's extension last year and expressing an openness to bringing back Compher kind of indicates Bednar and the FO are mostly on the same page regarding personnel decisions.

So where does that leave Newhook?

 

[shadow1]

Though it might be true, the part about Newhook is an assumption.

Last year, the idea was to give Newhook a tryout at 2C for 3 or 4 months. That might have lasted about 3 or 4 games. Was making Compher 2C so soon about rejecting Newhook or was it more about Bednar's affinity for Newhook?

One might think there could be somewhat of a rift between Bednar and the FO for not giving Newhook more of an opportunity. But Bednar's extension last year and expressing an openness to bringing back Compher kind of indicates Bednar and the FO are mostly on the same page regarding personnel decisions.

So where does that leave Newhook?

Yeah, I should've been more clear that I was making some assumptions with my comments.

Newhook had a rough season last year, especially towards the tail end. He only averaged 9:15 in the playoffs, with Bednar turning to Matt Nieto and eventually Lars Eller on the second line after the Val Nichushkin situation. Considering those are both checking line players not known for their offense, that speaks volumes about Newhook's role on the team.

Based on the above, I never believed for a moment the Avalanche planned to go into next season with him as the 2C; a point I was debating with others as recently as the middle of last week. For the same reasons, I don't think Colorado will go into next season with Newhook as the 2LW. I think the 3C/3LW spots are far more likely, though it also wouldn't be too shocking to see him dealt in a trade.

 

[AslanRH]

As an Avs fan, I have no issue saying Nashville won the trade.
We've been letting Dallas win the offseasons for damn near a decade now, so it is time for some new blood.

 

[Homesick]

So much for over paying in the division.
Great deal for the Avs

 

[Byrddog]

As an Avs fan, I have no issue saying Nashville won the trade.
We've been letting Dallas win the offseasons for damn near a decade now, so it is time for some new blood.

I pull for both teams and to me it is a loss to both teams. I was never glad to see Johansen in Nashville. And retaining just to get him out of town makes it worse. Now Colorado adding him makes no sense, as a reclamation project you’re still going to be disappointed. You put him on a 3rd line he is going to struggle to break 30 points. And 4mil Per is not acceptable. He is unmotivated 80% of the time and down right lazy most of the time. He will have a big game the just lay back for weeks. To banter back and forth is just useless , he will come in the first 15 games or so and show some promise just as he did in Nashville the fans will be asking why. He sure has some skill but just refuses to use it. Look at the number of coaches he has played for from Columbus to now and really none of them have been able to motivate him. Even when Torts benched him in Columbus it did nothing.

The bottom line is both teams lose here. Aves trade a nothing burger in Galchnyuk for a shit sammich Johansen that both teams are paying 4 mil for. A small advantage goes to Trotz for getting him off the team. And for Preds posters this is another example if this being a real rebuild not a retool. I’m not convinced that Trotz will stick with the youngsters from last year either. With a core of Forsberg, Duchene and Josi and Saros he needs some experienced guys n their age group. He has the picks and room to pay them. If he’s going for burn it to the ground he will make more moves a case can be made for either route.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

Colorado gave up a 1st round pick and announced they’re letting a 1st overall pick walk in the same week.

This franchise is doomed.

Erik J has been a fringe player for some time. Good to move on. No loss there

Sakic and cmac have said that he’ll continue to lean on sakic when it comes to decisions like they did prior to cmac becoming gm

Thanks for proving my point

 

[Muffin]

He’s definitely a pass first guy. Would it surprise anyone if he has a career year next to Rantanen?

 

[JoeSakic13]

Erik J has been a fringe player for some time. Good to move on. No loss there

Was making a joke.

Chucky played 11 games after being released from his pre-season PTO. Only reason he saw any icetime was the lengthy injuries.

Referring to us giving up a 1st rounder is a hilarious way to view it. Likewise with EJ being a 1st overall we let walk.

 

[GRob83]

So 2nd line centers are free now? Good to know.

 

[JLo217]

He’s definitely a pass first guy. Would it surprise anyone if he has a career year next to Rantanen?

Rants might net 60 if he stays healthy.

Additionally I don't know how anyone can be mad at this. Look at Naz's stats next to Ryjo's and you won't notice much of a difference other than Kadri's contract season. Instead of paying with Barrie (a top 3D at the time of the trade) they moved a UFA who could easily re-sign in a week or so and they also get him at 4M. This buys the Avalanche 2 years for the cap to move up and it saved all of their best trade assets for other moves or retention.

I think he'll do well under Bednar. I'm not expecting 60-70 points. But I also wouldn't be surprised.

 

[RockLobster]

Honestly it's a risk for the Avs but not a HUGE one, a decent sized one though.

I'm happy because they at least are taking a swing at filling the 2C role with someone other than Alex Newhook (or JTC), and RyJo can provide Newhook-like numbers at worst (as we've seen), and at best provides adequate 2C level numbers.

It's a 2-year window for Newhook to continue trying to cut his teeth as a C in the NHL (which I don't believe he is).

There's no problem thinking this is a win-win for both teams. The Avs get a player who has shown the capability to play 2C in the past and are gambling that they'll get him to be motivated enough over the next 2 seasons to provide them a HUGE net positive on his salary (4M for the next 2 seasons IS a bargain for the level of player RyJo can be); and the Preds get out of his deal w/o having to buy him out and extend his cap hit even further.

 

[lionsDen]

Erik J has been a fringe player for some time. Good to move on. No loss there


Thanks for proving my point

You must have edited your post.

 

[McJedi]

Yeah, I should've been more clear that I was making some assumptions with my comments.

Newhook had a rough season last year, especially towards the tail end. He only averaged 9:15 in the playoffs, with Bednar turning to Matt Nieto and eventually Lars Eller on the second line after the Val Nichushkin situation. Considering those are both checking line players not known for their offense, that speaks volumes about Newhook's role on the team.

Based on the above, I never believed for a moment the Avalanche planned to go into next season with him as the 2C; a point I was debating with others as recently as the middle of last week. For the same reasons, I don't think Colorado will go into next season with Newhook as the 2LW. I think the 3C/3LW spots are far more likely, though it also wouldn't be too shocking to see him dealt in a trade.

It would be stunning to see the Avs trade Newhook. They need his lower level salary and his scoring potential… they don’t have anyone behind him either in the farm system either.

Bednar didn’t coach well in the playoffs. Hakstol took Bednar behind the woodshed and beat him down.

Wasn’t the Avs year. Newhook definitely included. But even Toews and Makar had down years.

 

[shadow1]

It would be stunning to see the Avs trade Newhook. They need his lower level salary and his scoring potential… they don’t have anyone behind him either in the farm system either.

Bednar didn’t coach well in the playoffs. Hakstol took Bednar behind the woodshed and beat him down.

Wasn’t the Avs year. Newhook definitely included. But even Toews and Makar had down years.

Newhook was caved in against Seattle with 41.7 CF%, dead last amongst Avalanche forwards.

Even with Colorado's offensive struggles, it was hard to justify playing him more. Newhook had only four points in his final 25 games (reg+post), along with a -9 rating. This was during a stretch where the Avalanche went 18-6-1.

You're right that Colorado probably won't trade Newhook, but his next contract is likely going to carry a $2M+ AAV. For what Newhook has shown so far, that's not a bargain; and it's not particularly cheap for a team with limited cap space.

 

[Shane Diesel]

You're right that Colorado probably won't trade Newhook, but his next contract is likely going to carry a $2M+ AAV. For what Newhook has shown so far, that's not a bargain; and it's not particularly cheap for a team with limited cap space.

Based on what comparison?

 

[Patagonia]

I pull for both teams and to me it is a loss to both teams. I was never glad to see Johansen in Nashville. And retaining just to get him out of town makes it worse. Now Colorado adding him makes no sense, as a reclamation project you’re still going to be disappointed. You put him on a 3rd line he is going to struggle to break 30 points. And 4mil Per is not acceptable. He is unmotivated 80% of the time and down right lazy most of the time. He will have a big game the just lay back for weeks. To banter back and forth is just useless , he will come in the first 15 games or so and show some promise just as he did in Nashville the fans will be asking why. He sure has some skill but just refuses to use it. Look at the number of coaches he has played for from Columbus to now and really none of them have been able to motivate him. Even when Torts benched him in Columbus it did nothing.

The bottom line is both teams lose here. Aves trade a nothing burger in Galchnyuk for a shit sammich Johansen that both teams are paying 4 mil for. A small advantage goes to Trotz for getting him off the team. And for Preds posters this is another example if this being a real rebuild not a retool. I’m not convinced that Trotz will stick with the youngsters from last year either. With a core of Forsberg, Duchene and Josi and Saros he needs some experienced guys n their age group. He has the picks and room to pay them. If he’s going for burn it to the ground he will make more moves a case can be made for either route.

RJ has 2 seasons to prove he still belongs in the NHL.

He's likely a low end 2C or high 3C. Cap at $4M, still a better option than inferior UFA Compher expecting to earn $5M+. It's a low risk deal, AVs still have room for another deal without overpaying.

 

[McJedi]

Newhook was caved in against Seattle with 41.7 CF%, dead last amongst Avalanche forwards.

Even with Colorado's offensive struggles, it was hard to justify playing him more. Newhook had only four points in his final 25 games (reg+post), along with a -9 rating. This was during a stretch where the Avalanche went 18-6-1.

You're right that Colorado probably won't trade Newhook, but his next contract is likely going to carry a $2M+ AAV. For what Newhook has shown so far, that's not a bargain; and it's not particularly cheap for a team with limited cap space.

Newhook had the same number of goals as Seth Jarvis this season. But he was streaky. He didn’t play well in the playoffs at all. But neither did Lex, JTC, Erod and several other guys. It was a disappointing conclusion for sure.

 

[shadow1]

Based on what comparison?

What could Alex Newhook’s next contract look like? Examining contract comparables

To get a sense of what Newhook's contract could look like, let’s look at potential comparables.

theathletic.com

Peter Baugh did an article on this. He showed (5) comparables, which included...

• Filip Chytil (71p in 186gp) - 2 x $2.3M
• Dillon Dube (43p in 121gp) - 3 x $2.3M
• Kaapo Kakko (58p in 157gp) - 2 x $2.1M

Newhook has 66p in 159gp, for reference.

 

[Shane Diesel]

What could Alex Newhook’s next contract look like? Examining contract comparables

To get a sense of what Newhook's contract could look like, let’s look at potential comparables.

theathletic.com

Peter Baugh did an article on this. He showed (5) comparables, which included...

• Filip Chytil (71p in 186gp) - 2 x $2.3M
• Dillon Dube (43p in 121gp) - 3 x $2.3M
• Kaapo Kakko (58p in 157gp) - 2 x $2.1M

Newhook has 66p in 159gp, for reference.

Ok

Newhook's career PPG is higher than every player you just listed so I'm still not sure what comparison you're using that demonstrates a $2 million cap hit isn't fair value.

 

[shadow1]

Ok

Newhook's career PPG is higher than every player you just listed so I'm still not sure what comparison you're using that demonstrates a $2 million cap hit isn't fair value.

I didn't say $2M+ wasn't fair value, I said it wasn't a bargain.

 

[DearDiary]

Honestly it's a risk for the Avs but not a HUGE one, a decent sized one though.

I'm happy because they at least are taking a swing at filling the 2C role with someone other than Alex Newhook (or JTC), and RyJo can provide Newhook-like numbers at worst (as we've seen), and at best provides adequate 2C level numbers.

It's a 2-year window for Newhook to continue trying to cut his teeth as a C in the NHL (which I don't believe he is).

There's no problem thinking this is a win-win for both teams. The Avs get a player who has shown the capability to play 2C in the past and are gambling that they'll get him to be motivated enough over the next 2 seasons to provide them a HUGE net positive on his salary (4M for the next 2 seasons IS a bargain for the level of player RyJo can be); and the Preds get out of his deal w/o having to buy him out and extend his cap hit even further.

30 points last season and 15 points this season at 5on5 for Johansen is not 2nd line numbers. Newhook who you're bringing down has better numbers

Unless your opinion of outplaying Newhook is Johansen padding his stats on the 1st powerplay unit?

 

[Byrddog]

RJ has 2 seasons to prove he still belongs in the NHL.

He's likely a low end 2C or high 3C. Cap at $4M, still a better option than inferior UFA Compher expecting to earn $5M+. It's a low risk deal, AVs still have room for another deal without overpaying.

You will be disappointed by Christmas. There are two things that are overpaid in the league unrealized potential and reclamation. Even at 4 mil and moving down to 2C. Coming off a bad injury where a number of hf posters were just writing him in as a LTIR. I follow four teams close Nashville, Colorado, Tampa and Buffalo so last year really sucked and honestly going into this year the team from that list that could well make some noise is Buffalo. I have traveled to Buffalo a number of times to catch games and you have some of the best fans in the league. The crash from the cup year to last season was baffling. But this move will do little to improve the team. I have never been big on Johansen and honestly would have preferred he end up in Calgary , St Louis or Dallas Teams I do not like. At best I think he hits 40 points misses more time due to injury and people will point to time missed . Nashville expected him to be a 70 point guy. He just never was. The thing about him he has the skill to make plays he just doesn’t do it often.

 

[dahrougem2]

30 points last season and 15 points this season at 5on5 for Johansen is not 2nd line numbers. Newhook who you're bringing down has better numbers

Unless your opinion of outplaying Newhook is Johansen padding his stats on the 1st powerplay unit?

I love when people say things like "Padding stats on the 1st powerplay unit" as if the Predators were playing 5-on-0 and there wasn't a goalie on the other team, so Johansen was gifted points.

It takes skill to score on the PP, just like it takes skill to score at 5v5. Nobody is "padding stats" on the man advantage. Plenty of players are phenomenal at 5v5 but struggle on the PP and vice versa; true superstars are phenomenal at both.

 

[shadow1]

30 points last season and 15 points this season at 5on5 for Johansen is not 2nd line numbers. Newhook who you're bringing down has better numbers

Unless your opinion of outplaying Newhook is Johansen padding his stats on the 1st powerplay unit?

In 2021-2022, Johansen had 39 EVP and 29 5v5P.

Both totals were identical to Elias Patterson that year, and similar to other centers like Sam Bennett (39/32), Patrice Bergeron (39/33) and Vincent Trochek (39/31).

There's no denying Johansen stunk last year - as evidenced by the Avalanche trading literally nothing for him. But in 2021-2022, his point splits were similar to other centers who had similar offensive outputs.

 

[Shane Diesel]

I didn't say $2M+ wasn't fair value, I said it wasn't a bargain.

Your original post on the topic:

You're right that Colorado probably won't trade Newhook, but his next contract is likely going to carry a $2M+ AAV. For what Newhook has shown so far, that's not a bargain; and it's not particularly cheap for a team with limited cap space.

Let's cut the semantics bullshit. You clearly intended to say a $2 million cap hit wasn't a good contract for Newhook and the recent comparables YOU provided show exactly the opposite.