Not Another Roster Building Thread..part II

[Zezima]

Does Tolchinsky have a chance to make team?

He was honestly a beast in the short glimpse of time we saw him during 15-16. But there isn't even a promised slot for PDG, who was great for nearly half the season so Tolchinsky is definitely on the outside looking in. He was one of the final forwards to be sent back at last year's camp and I'm sure the same will happen this year. The best shot he has to make it is to absolutely tear up Traverse City and go from there.

 

[bleedgreen]

Tolchinsky has it tough making it past the vets that have been added, I think he has to be a top 9 which is a tall order (no pun intended) for him at this point. The downside to the new found "depth" is that even a Brown is unlikely to make it now, and I wanted him to make it.

The team has shown it wants some thump in its rump on at least the 4th line. Definitely needed, but going big for big's sake is an outdated concept. We have an interesting mix of folks fighting for a fourth line spot, possibly a third I suppose but I think we have enough skill guys for that line.

 

[Ole Gil]

Does Tolchinsky have a chance to make team?

The good news for Sergei and really all the prospects, is that after Skinner/Staal/Rask, the top 9 is filled with mediocrity, so while there are a lot of people to jump to get in the lineup, they are very short people.

 

[Vagrant]

I try to consider players based on slot more than how much they deserve to play, because the first requisite for getting into the lineup is that they have a place to play you. Regarding Tolchinsky, he has a long way to go before we can even consider him a reliable call-up, despite the instant love affair for his talent and the publicity that garnered him. This player scored 36 points and was a -16 in 72 games in the AHL last season. So back to the question about slot, where would you put a player of his caliber? It has to be Top 9. Now, with the way we're currently structured that's a problem. Like it or lump it, I suspect that there are two players who spent the majority of the year in Charlotte that are in contention for one of those spots and it's PDG and possibly Brock McGinn. Both players were productive last year in the AHL and PDG in particular transitioned that into a strong stretch of NHL games. I would say he's currently the guy we've got to find a way to get into the lineup. Tolchinsky in my estimation is behind several more players. The offseason addition of skill players like Aho, Stempniak and Teravainen make the need for his pure skill a little less pronounced, subsequently giving him more time to develop into a reliable hand at the AHL level. We can't allow Tolchinsky to skip steps just because we like his talent level. He has to show tangible production as a professional before he stakes his claim on a full time spot with the team just like anyone else. You can't rightly put players like PDG, McGinn, or even guys like Woods and Brown behind Tolchinsky when his forte is scoring and several of those guys were in reasonable distance to him in the AHL as it pertains to scoring.

It seems like we all have issues at time making the distinction between players that are ready for the NHL challenge and players we have room to play on our roster. Tolchinsky might not meet either criteria and since we brought in 3 guys at least who are going to play in our Top 9, we're even less in position this year to give him a shot than we were last year when he only picked up 2 games despite an immense need for the increase in talent.

 

[tarheelhockey]

The offseason addition of skill players like Aho, Stempniak and Teravainen make the need for his pure skill a little less pronounced

In my eyes, this is where Tolchinsky's road to the Canes may have come to an end.

Last year we had a desperate need for middle-6 scoring. There was an opportunity for someone to step up in camp, surprise everyone, and become that guy. Tolchinsky made some noise, but at the end of the day he was a half-PPG scorer in the A instead of in the N.

This year, we're not so desperate for that mid-range scoring pop. We just added a whole line's worth of options to fill that need. Now our needs are more at the upper part of the lineup, the 30-goal scoring types, and Tolchinsky certainly isn't that.

TBH I'd be pretty surprised it he worked his way up the ladder here. If he wants it, he's going to have to go the route of a Gerbe and add another dimension to his game beyond just scoring points. Otherwise he's just not going to beat out the more rounded guys who score at a similar level.

 

[Ole Gil]

In my eyes, this is where Tolchinsky's road to the Canes may have come to an end.

Last year we had a desperate need for middle-6 scoring. There was an opportunity for someone to step up in camp, surprise everyone, and become that guy. Tolchinsky made some noise, but at the end of the day he was a half-PPG scorer in the A instead of in the N.

This year, we're not so desperate for that mid-range scoring pop. We just added a whole line's worth of options to fill that need. Now our needs are more at the upper part of the lineup, the 30-goal scoring types, and Tolchinsky certainly isn't that.

TBH I'd be pretty surprised it he worked his way up the ladder here. If he wants it, he's going to have to go the route of a Gerbe and add another dimension to his game beyond just scoring points. Otherwise he's just not going to beat out the more rounded guys who score at a similar level.

I think the path to success is for him to become a 20+ nhl goal scorer. The team is so hard pressed for scoring, it's going to be tough to keep anyone out who looks like a 20+ goal scorer this preseason. Bickel, Stalberg, Mcc, nords, and nesty are all ripe candidates to be bounced down or out of the lineup by someone who can produce more than 30ish points.

Seems improbable that he does that, but I don't think the team has the talent to snub anyone who tears it up in the preseason. McGinn was a good example from last year. He had a good camp, so they gave him a shot.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think the path to success is for him to become a 20+ nhl goal scorer. The team is so hard pressed for scoring, it's going to be tough to keep anyone out who looks like a 20+ goal scorer this preseason. Bickel, Stalberg, Mcc, nords, and nesty are all ripe candidates to be bounced down or out of the lineup by someone who can produce more than 30ish points.

Seems improbable that he does that, but I don't think the team has the talent to snub anyone who tears it up in the preseason. McGinn was a good example from last year. He had a good camp, so they gave him a shot.

It's really hard for me to imagine this roster being constructed in a way that Tolchinsky is a 20+ goal scorer, other than Tolchinsky himself blossoming into a player far better than what he is at present.

I mean we know he's not going to knock a guy like Skinner or even Lindholm or Teravainen out of a top line spot. So he'd have to be scoring those 20 goals as, what, a 3rd liner? Maybe if he became some sort of PP specialist?

 

[DaveG]

Maybe long-term turn himself in to a guy that can replace Stempniak, since he has that element that really none of our other prospects have at the moment. But he'll be hard pressed to keep Saarela, Roy, Gauthier, and even long term guys like Elyniuk out of roster spots.

Just can't imagine the Canes having roster room for a skilled specialist type on the 4th line when as a whole we're kindof lacking in the size department to begin with.

 

[NotOpie]

Maybe long-term turn himself in to a guy that can replace Stempniak, since he has that element that really none of our other prospects have at the moment. But he'll be hard pressed to keep Saarela, Roy, Gauthier, and even long term guys like Elyniuk out of roster spots.

Just can't imagine the Canes having roster room for a skilled specialist type on the 4th line when as a whole we're kindof lacking in the size department to begin with.

Sergey might have a longer route to the show but, in the end, his opportunity is going to surface when the next round of major contracts get negotiated. We will most likely lose one of Stempniak or Nordstrom from our forward ranks at the expansion draft. That will open up a slot. Nobody knows how Nestrasil will play coming back from injury and wunderkind Sebastian Aho may just **** the bed. There are way too many unknowns to write Tolchinsky's obituary with the Canes just yet.

That said I somewhat agree with both Tarheel and Vagrant in that there's no slot for him in the traditional sense and he's going to have to prove that he can be an NHL level scorer of a significant level. I think 20 goals is a minimum.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

In my eyes, this is where Tolchinsky's road to the Canes may have come to an end.

Last year we had a desperate need for middle-6 scoring. There was an opportunity for someone to step up in camp, surprise everyone, and become that guy. Tolchinsky made some noise, but at the end of the day he was a half-PPG scorer in the A instead of in the N.

I'm a bit perplexed by this view tarheel. Tolchinsky was a 20 year old, undrafted rookie, who was all of 5'7" tall; 165lbs soaking wet, and had never had to play a pro style game in his life. There was virtually zero chance he was going to grab an NHL spot last year, especially in a Bill Peters coached team, nor should have he. Expecting him to grab a spot last year, even with the dire need the Canes had seems a bit unrealistic to me. I know some fans got hyped up about his slick moves in camp, but he was going to need time, and a lot of it, in the AHL if he was ever to make it into the NHL. To me, him not grabbing spot last year is meaningless, and frankly was fully expected. Even Peters said in training camp he'd be in the AHL.

TBH I'd be pretty surprised it he worked his way up the ladder here. If he wants it, he's going to have to go the route of a Gerbe and add another dimension to his game beyond just scoring points. Otherwise he's just not going to beat out the more rounded guys who score at a similar level.

You may be right. But another option is to become a better scorer than other's on the squad and to continue to round out his game, which is probably more likely than him becoming a grinder IMO. I'm not convinced he'll ever be an effective NHL player, but he's 1 year into his pro career so I'm not writing him off yet.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He was honestly a beast in the short glimpse of time we saw him during 15-16.

I thought he looked ok, but I'm not sure I'd classify him as a "beast" in the 2 games he played at the NHL level. His first game, he had 12:42 min. TOI and 1 SOG. His 2nd game he had 10:53 TOI and had zero SOG and 1 A. I remember watching him and thought he did ok given the sheltered minutes he got, but he didn't stand out to me.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm a bit perplexed by this view tarheel. Tolchinsky was a 20 year old, undrafted rookie, who was all of 5'7" tall; 165lbs soaking wet, and had never had to play a pro style game in his life. There was virtually zero chance he was going to grab an NHL spot last year, especially in a Bill Peters coached team, nor should have he. Expecting him to grab a spot last year, even with the dire need the Canes had seems a bit unrealistic to me. I know some fans got hyped up about his slick moves in camp, but he was going to need time, and a lot of it, in the AHL if he was ever to make it into the NHL. To me, him not grabbing spot last year is meaningless, and frankly was fully expected. Even Peters said in training camp he'd be in the AHL.

What I mean is that when he arrived here, there was a wide open window for his "type" of player to emerge and carve out a spot as a middle-6 scoring winger. And with us engaged in a rebuild, there was a reasonable expectation that the opportunity would last a while.

In an ideal world, we'd have then solidified our top line with young cornerstone forwards. Lindholm would be a clear top-line guy, and we'd have drafted some studs the past couple of years as well, and guys like Tolchinsky and McGinn would be coming up the ranks as depth options.

But some weird twists and turns happened, and instead we've ended up stocking our middle-6 first. Lindholm is at that level for the time being. Guys like TT, Aho, PDG, Gauthier are all looking like long termers at those spots, and Stempniak contributes to the logjam in the short term. The high-end talent is still missing, but we've got a good basis for a supporting cast already in place. That really shrinks the window for a guy like Tolchinsky.

It's really hard for me to imagine that in the next 3-4 years, we'll find ourselves saying "You know what we could really use right now... a small, soft 20-goal winger". Unless something goes Boychuk-Dalpe-Bowman level wrong with what we already have in place, his type of player should be redundant on our roster. So as I said above, I'm struggling to see a path for him here, at least one which wouldn't involve him being another Martin St Louis and just surging past everybody to a top-line role. That's not impossible, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I dunno, if Tolchinsky actually becomes a 20 goal guy in the NHL, the canes will almost certainly not be in a position anytime soon to turn that down.

OTOH, we have like 6 left wingers and few right wingers. If he were a few/rh shot, Tolchinsky might have had a chance at 13th forward. But tolchinsky has to compete with Skinner, AHO, TT, PDG plus whomever is on J Staal's line to get lw ice time....

Phrased that way the outlook doesn't look good, it's just odd that you're approaching this from "even if he scored the 4th mist goals on the team...." or whatever. 20 goals us not insignificant production. That's what cup contenders get from their 3rd libes- so I would not mind if we were in position to turn that down

 

[A Star is Burns]

A lot of things can happen to give Tolchinsky a chance here. He's still early in his development as a pro, so he may become a better scorer at these levels, and even a better rounded player. Guys improve over the summer, so for all we know, he may blow the doors off already. He doesn't have to be the exact same player as last year. I don't expect that, but we just don't know.

I think his first year in the AHL was perfectly fine. The other thing is, if all the players that you guys are thinking are so much better than him turn out to be, they are going to get big contracts at some point, along with our great young D, and that could easily open a path for him as a cheap scorer. It just seems dumb to say that a guy after his first year pro is coming to an end. It wouldn't be surprising if he only gets spot duty again this year, a few more games next year than that, and really makes it the following year, if he makes it at all. He of course does need to improve for that to happen, which only time will tell.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

What I mean is that when he arrived here, there was a wide open window for his "type" of player to emerge and carve out a spot as a middle-6 scoring winger. And with us engaged in a rebuild, there was a reasonable expectation that the opportunity would last a while.

Yeah, that makes sense that the team depth now is quite a bit better than it was a year or 2 ago. I was more focused on the parts about he had a chance to step up and grab a spot in camp and that his road may have come to an end. IMO, there was pretty much zero chance he was going to get an NHL spot last year as he was no-where near ready so I fully expected he'd be in the AHL. Also, he's had a single pro season and is only 21 so regardless of the "perceived" depth, I wouldn't conclude his chances are over.

I get that he's a small, skilled, undrafted winger so he's a long shot to make the NHL in the first place, but as a 20 year old, he had 36 points in 72 AHL games while learning to play defense and not getting top line minutes. I think his development curve is progressing just fine. PDG was a 21 year old in his first AHL season and put up 30 points in 76 games and yet a couple years later, we're all pretty happy how he's turning out.

Personally, I'm not overly high on Tolchinsky and I'm not sure he'll ever make it to the NHL, but I don't think the pipeline the Canes potentially have will be the reason for it. Two years from now, who knows what the line-up will look like, who might get traded, who might get injured and how these prospects will pan out. I'm fine with him continuing to develop for another year, or two, or more and see if he becomes something.

 

[Unsustainable]

Some of the talk about Nichuskin, Ritchie, ect., wonder how the "Big Body" kids are ranked.

Gauthier should be in the group, might be biased, he has a scoring touch to his game.

 

[NotOpie]

I think his first year in the AHL was perfectly fine. The other thing is, if all the players that you guys are thinking are so much better than him turn out to be, they are going to get big contracts at some point, along with our great young D, and that could easily open a path for him as a cheap scorer. It just seems dumb to say that a guy after his first year pro is coming to an end. It wouldn't be surprising if he only gets spot duty again this year, a few more games next year than that, and really makes it the following year, if he makes it at all. He of course does need to improve for that to happen, which only time will tell.

This is one of the key points I was trying to make. We currently have 6 forwards under NHL contracts for next year, 7 if you count Aho. The year after that we have 3 (4 if counting Aho). Certainly other guys are going to surface and some guys are going to get extended. But the salient point is that some of these guys will get replaced with other prospects or alternative scoring forwards.

Personally, I'm not overly high on Tolchinsky and I'm not sure he'll ever make it to the NHL, but I don't think the pipeline the Canes potentially have will be the reason for it. Two years from now, who knows what the line-up will look like, who might get traded, who might get injured and how these prospects will pan out. I'm fine with him continuing to develop for another year, or two, or more and see if he becomes something.

I believe that if Sergey puts up 45-55 points in the AHL he will be demonstrating continued development. He came on a bit in the 2nd half of the season and I see no reason for that not to carry over into this season. There's no slot waiting for him, but his path isn't really blocked, especially if he continues to grow as a player (no pun intended).

 

[DaveG]

There's no way that proposal can be taken seriously.

 

[NotOpie]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Tolchinsky makes the team next season (I don't think there's any way in hell he makes it this season). I'm just saying that if he continues to develop as a scorer at the AHL level, he's not really blocked by anybody. He'll have as good a shot as any prospect coming into the next season.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Tolchinsky makes the team next season (I don't think there's any way in hell he makes it this season). I'm just saying that if he continues to develop as a scorer at the AHL level, he's not really blocked by anybody. He'll have as good a shot as any prospect coming into the next season.

Yep, that's how I see it as well.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Tolchinsky makes the team next season (I don't think there's any way in hell he makes it this season). I'm just saying that if he continues to develop as a scorer at the AHL level, he's not really blocked by anybody. He'll have as good a shot as any prospect coming into the next season.

Dave was referring to a nonsensical deleted post.

 

[Novacane]

I can confirm it was pretty bad

 

[DaveG]

Dave was referring to a nonsensical deleted post.

Yep. I honestly am onboard with NotOpie's line of thought re: Tolchinsky. If the guy can prove himself in the AHL and keep showing signs of being an offensively productive player in the NHL when called up then it's going to be VERY difficult to not give him a roster spot. It just won't be for another couple years IMHO.

But that trade proposal that was posted (and deleted). **** man, even EHM engines would laugh at that one while rejecting it.

 

[geehaad]

I just figured Dave lost his ever-lovin' mind.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I just figured Dave lost his ever-lovin' mind.

There's no way that proposal can be taken seriously.