Not Another Roster Building Thread..part II

[NotOpie]

They can work Murphy into enough games to qualify or they can sign Hainsey to a one year extension. Fluery, at this point, is almost certainly going to be substantially better than Murphy, and Francis wants to win.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you're wrong on this one. Yes, they can work Murph into a number of games to get his minimum, but I don't believe that Haydn Fleury is going to magically be NHL ready. He will be good, but my sense is that he'll need a good 1/2 year in the AHL at a minimum.

Murphy has slowly improved in fits and starts. He's allegedly working hard this summer and with Bill Peters' preference for RD/LD pairings he's got a leg up on everybody. Plus as BBA said, there's no way Ron Hainsey signs an extension merely to be exposed unless the Canes do something with draft picks to prevent it. Besides, if Fleury and/or McKeown are ready, then why re-sign a 35 year old.

 

[CandyCanes]

Well we have all been wanting the team to get tougher for yearsssss.... (Probably since the Jesse Boulerice days) So we go out an address that by supposedly giving a PTO to the head hunting machine Raffi Torres.

 

[Joe McGrath]

EStaal trade as it stands:

Staal + 2017 3rd
for
Saarela, TT, Bickel, 2017 2nd

Do I have that right? If so, hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

 

[Anton Babchuk]

Fluery, at this point, is almost certainly going to be substantially better than Murphy, and Francis wants to win.

Every time I've watched Fleury play he's struggled defensively....and that was against junior players. I don't think it's anywhere close to certain that he's going to be substantially better (or better at all) this season.

 

[GoldiFox]

How could anyone know that Fleury will be better than Murphy? Both were high 1st rounders with hype. Fleury isn't automatically better just because he is shiny and new.

As far as the expansion Draft goes, I'm sure there will be dozens of overpaid NHL D that the Canes could acquire at the deadline to meet the eligibility requirement. I'm also sure that Hainsey would take a fat 1-year contract (lets say 1 year, $6 million to hyperbolize it) that leaves basically zero chance he would be taken in the expansion Draft. There are lots of ways to make it work.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As far as the expansion Draft goes, I'm sure there will be dozens of overpaid NHL D that the Canes could acquire at the deadline to meet the eligibility requirement. I'm also sure that Hainsey would take a fat 1-year contract (lets say 1 year, $6 million to hyperbolize it) that leaves basically zero chance he would be taken in the expansion Draft. There are lots of ways to make it work.

I do agree it won't be that hard to solve any expansion draft concerns should Murphy not work out. Plenty of way to do that via trade, deadline pick-ups etc., but it's not a slam dunk.

Of course I could be wrong, but I think people are overestimating how easy it will be to sign Hainsey, should they need to. It's a 2 ways street. I don't see him doing a favor for the Canes out of the goodness of his heart, and I don't see the Canes, a budget team, substantially overpaying a 36 year Hainsey to the point where it guarantee he'll sign and then be stuck with him at a high salary.

Hainsey, at his age and situation has the flexibility to likely do what he wants and can't see him risking having to go to Las Vegas, even if the chances are low (unless of course he wants to go there). As I said, for all we know, he may want to try to latch on with a contender as a bottom pairing guy with a chance to finally make it to the playoffs.

 

[geehaad]

How could anyone know that Fleury will be better than Murphy? Both were high 1st rounders with hype. Fleury isn't automatically better just because he is shiny and new.

This is a tremendous over-simplification of the discussion. He could be viewed as better than Murphy for lots of reasons.

A not-complete list of possibilities:

1. He hasn't already shown us that he struggles to play defense
2. He's a big body
3. He skates at a praise-worthy level, mitigating Murphy's strength advantage
4. He didn't drop in his draft like Murphy

As far as the expansion Draft goes, I'm sure there will be dozens of overpaid NHL D that the Canes could acquire at the deadline to meet the eligibility requirement. I'm also sure that Hainsey would take a fat 1-year contract (lets say 1 year, $6 million to hyperbolize it) that leaves basically zero chance he would be taken in the expansion Draft. There are lots of ways to make it work.

Certainly Vegas passes on a $6M Ron Hainsey, but then the Hurricanes are stuck with him. Are there dozens of overpaid NHL D that won't be complete liabilities on the Hurricanes roster, requiring a buyout if not selected in the expansion draft? Dozens that only have a single year remaining? I don't see it as the simple problem you view it as.

 

[GoldiFox]

This is a tremendous over-simplification of the discussion. He could be viewed as better than Murphy for lots of reasons.

A not-complete list of possibilities:

1. He hasn't already shown us that he struggles to play defense
2. He's a big body
3. He skates at a praise-worthy level, mitigating Murphy's strength advantage
4. He didn't drop in his draft like Murphy

Certainly Vegas passes on a $6M Ron Hainsey, but then the Hurricanes are stuck with him. Are there dozens of overpaid NHL D that won't be complete liabilities on the Hurricanes roster, requiring a buyout if not selected in the expansion draft? Dozens that only have a single year remaining? I don't see it as the simple problem you view it as.

Still not seeing any reason that guarantees Fleury will out-perform what Murphy has done. Whether Fleury is better than Murphy or not can't be determined until Fleury actually plays in the NHL. Being big or "not falling in the Draft" isn't really a strong indicator in NHL success. Saying Fleury will "certainly be better" than Murphy is like saying Boychuk will "certainly be better" than Chad LaRose in 2009. Didn't happen, even though it probably made all the sense in the world at the time.

The only reason the Canes would need to extend Hainsey or add another D is:
1) Faulk is getting exposed because Murphy/Tennyson didn't play enough games
2) Murphy makes great strides and the Canes want to keep him

Otherwise Murphy will just be exposed. If something catastrophic happens and Faulk might be exposed, they will just trade for a guy like Mark Fayne and absorb his $3 million or buy him out.

If Murphy is worth keeping, they will find a way to make it happen. Extending Hainsey at $6 million is a hyperbole. Extend him at $3 million and he probably still doesn't get taken. The Canes could alternatively just pay Vegas a 2nd or 3rd round pick to leave Murphy alone in the expansion Draft. I believe this type of deal happened last time around.

 

[bleedgreen]

There's no guarantee, it's just the one has always been a good defenseman who can play some offense and the other is a good offensive defenseman who's never been know to play well in his end. Fleury is the safer and smarter choice to have a successful career even if he's never great. Murphy was always about his ceiling. Boom or bust because at his size and the way he plays it was always a long shot he would ever make it without being a stud offensively. He hasn't been a stud so far, and that leaves the rest of his game under a microscope when you don't need a microscope. Fleury is probably better at defense now that Murphy is now, and that's giving Murphy a couple of years of experience to catch up that part of his game.

The point that Fleury hasn't done it yet is valid, but watching them both play unless Murphy starts putting up points he is on borrowed time. He's lucky to be righty.

 

[cptjeff]

I'm not basing my judgement on draft position. Fleury has made strides in development every year, working and improving on the things the Canes wanted him to improve on. He's physically ready and has a fairly well rounded game. Murphy has never shown any real improvement and is simply not an NHL caliber player at this point. Murphy, even when he makes the right decisions defensively, often gets walked over due to the fact that he's not big or strong enough, and he doesn't have the skills necessary to be Dan Boyle and succeed defensively despite his size. And he doesn't usually make good decisions defensively. His offensive creativity, which was supposed to be his great strength, has never managed to really translate to the NHL level.

He's a bust. Yeah, Fluery is untested at the NHL level, but Murphy has had chances- a lot of them- and it just hasn't worked out. It's Boychuck 2.0. You want it to pan out, you try and force it, you give more chances because he's was a first rounder, but eventually you have to admit that the guy can't hack it in the NHL.

I also saw them on the ice together in person last year in preseason- and Fleury, to my eye, looked better, though he had some rough edges. He's spent another year of development, and according to comments out of our development staff and even from Francis over the last year, the Canes think he's improved.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

murphys amazing ability to streak down the right wing and lead the charge has so far only translated into streaking down the right wing, getting to the corner, and dumping it around the boards

usually good for a clean zone entry (the value of which i do not want to understate for this team) but definitely not the level of creativity we were expecting once hes in the zone

i never expected decent defense

for me its the fact that we all saw his absolute floor as marc andre bergeron because of his undeniable offensive abilities, and yet somehow those undeniable abilities have been denied to this point


but also maybe hes just 23 and will be a later bloomer

i dont really know

 

[Vagrant]

Fleury does a damn fine job of looking the part and when you're being scouted, that's sometimes all that matters. A guy as big as he is skating down the ice with the relative ease he does is enticing. And we bought it at a premium. I can't bark too much since Lawson Crouse was the guy I wanted that year, but it was such a silly reach of a pick. The wart on the ass of Francis' talent evaluation. Being the second best defensemen in your class doesn't matter if your class is terrible. He's got some things to work on and that's an understatement. It's easy to look at a player like Fleury and just *assume* development, but in terms of what he is today he's not even close as compared to a guy like Carrick for example and Carrick doesn't need a full time slot yet. There are not so quiet rumblings about Fleury and hockey sense that make me uncomfortable. He looked nothing like a 19 year old senior team leader at the U20s.

Murphy had to change his game because the moves that worked in his Junior career don't work in the NHL and they're likely to get you knocked around. He wasn't ever the same guy after the Kuhnhackl hit. He's contact averse in the way that I was afraid Skinner would be after his concussion troubles. This game isn't for everyone, no matter if you can Bobby Orr it down the ice alone or you're chipping and chasing on someone's 4th line. There's questions about dedication to the game there as well. If you fail to adjust, you'll wash out. As far as he's concerned, I think it's his last chance. He hasn't put together a lot of good tape. It would be hard to imagine other teams being overly interested.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Fleury does a damn fine job of looking the part and when you're being scouted, that's sometimes all that matters. A guy as big as he is skating down the ice with the relative ease he does is enticing. And we bought it at a premium. I can't bark too much since Lawson Crouse was the guy I wanted that year, but it was such a silly reach of a pick.

How was it a silly reach of a pick Vagrant? TSN (McKenzie's poll of scouts) had Fleury as #8 in the final polls (ahead of Nylander and Ehlers) and we picked him at #7. THN also had him at #8. Pronmann and McKeens had him at #10. I'm fine if you want to say Francis messed up on that pick and should have taken Nylander or Ehlers, (although the jury's still out), but I don't agree with the statement that he was a silly reach, since many other pundits had him right in that range.

To me, a reach is picking a guy at a spot where nobody else had him ranked even close to that spot. That wasn't the case with Fleury.

 

[bleedgreen]

I think Vagrant means Crouse. I agreed with him then and at the time though. I wanted Crouse but was content with Fleury. We needed d badly and he was a legit pick.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think Vagrant means Crouse. I agreed with him then and at the time though. I wanted Crouse but was content with Fleury. We needed d badly and he was a legit pick.

That's what I thought at first, but I re-read it and the two sentences strung together said "but it was such a silly reach of a pick. The wart on the ass of Francis' talent evaluation.", so I assumed he was talking about Fleury.

 

[TheOllieC]

Lawson Crouse wasn't even in Fleury's draft...?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Lawson Crouse wasn't even in Fleury's draft...?

That too.

 

[Vagrant]

The emphasis on facts here is ridiculous.

 

[Vagrant]

In my defense, I meant Nick Ritchie. I had such a feeling about that guy. And you're right that it wasn't a reach by the standards of the usual sources. I just didn't think of him as a possibility with that pick so my hindsight is blurry. I think the scouting made a paper tiger out of Fleury in the ratings because he was the second best available and it was so out of this world odd that a draft could have a ratio of forwards to defense that skewed.

 

[bleedgreen]

Bah thats funny! And ironic since I wanted Ritchie as well.

 

[tarheelhockey]

TBH, picking Haydn Fleury over Nick Ritchie was a pretty easy call. Does Nick Ritchie sound like the name of a guy that would strike fear into the NHL? More like a 90s boy band singer.

 

[CandyCanes]

TBT back to Byron Ritchie

 

[A Star is Burns]

TBT back to Byron Ritchie

Good throw back for what he helped bring us in trade

 

[shaner8989]

Does Tolchinsky have a chance to make team?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Does Tolchinsky have a chance to make team?

Everyone "has a chance", but I don't think he really has a chance. There are a lot of guys blocking his path, so he'd need all of them to fall through at the same time that he showed us his best hockey to date. Probably not happening this year, slim shot for the future.