Player Discussion: Niku

[RustyCat]

I feel pretty good about Niku over the last 5 to 6 games. I think it is obvious that he is starting to finally get comfortable. He only needs experience and confidence. I'm confident he is a dangerous top-4 offensive defenseman at this time of the year in one year and the league is going to start recognizing him for it.

Definitely agree with the bolded. I am hopeful for the second half of your statement but time will tell on that.

I will also humbly submit that we ought to give credit to the coaching staff, specifically Charlie Huddy, on these small but important steps forward. The style and messaging to the the defencemen this year has been a critical component in development for guys like Niku, Poolman, Pionk, and even Bitetto. Granted we do not have a first tier D-Corps and the team has struggled at times for sure, but it is clear to me that the coaching staff have had to make their own adjustments. They allow each individual to go out and do the thing that are really good at, whatever that may be (playmaking, cocking shots, simple passes) and allow breathing room for mistakes. To be malleable and learn as a unit. This is a bit of a different philosophy than it has been since Maurice has taken over and a guy like Niku can really benefit from this, provided he remains being open to be taught and mentored.

 

[GJF]

It's unfortunate that he doesn't have 100+ games under his belt already.

It is. He'd already be a lot further in his progression. Maybe even close to Neal Pionk level.

 

[DRW204]

Niku has been so Great this season is is worst of all defenseman with an unbelievably horrible Corsi of 41.7%....he also happens to have an unbelievably bad 41.6% GF%.

granted 14 games is a small sample size so let expand it to include last year as well.

he still has an unbelievably bad 43.1% Corsi and really bad 47.5% GF%.

If we picked Niku up off waivers this season there would be non stop complaining about how he sucks and the jets pro scouts don’t know how to judge a defenseman.

obviously 50 games is still a small sample but he has not been that impressive this year and it's a let down for me. for all the supposed skill and offensive upside it sure as hell doesn't compensate for his terrible defensive play, as seen in the stats + eye test. but yes you are correct if any other player is sporting the stats that he is they'd be raked over the coals by the fans.

 

[GJF]

obviously 50 games is still a small sample but he has not been that impressive this year and it's a let down for me. for all the supposed skill and offensive upside it sure as hell doesn't compensate for his terrible defensive play, as seen in the stats + eye test. but yes you are correct if any other player is sporting the stats that he is they'd be raked over the coals by the fans.

I'm not talking to you only you just happened to be the last one talking about it but I honestly don't understand the approach to it.

What did people expect to happen? Niku is a 7th round pick! He now played about 50 games in the NHL and is starting to look comfortable. I'd argue that is quite an okay or at least very much expected development curve for an undersized 7th round offensive defenseman. I know it's a topic that is kind of an universal problem on HFboards but it is all about expectation management honestly.


for a guy like Niku, this is the obvious roadmap:

1. Get called up: check!
2. Stay on the roster: check!
3. Get comfy playing on a day-to-day basis: working on it!
4. Starting to put all your strengths and skills out there:
5. Doing it on a regular basis:
6. Becoming a day-to-day contributor to the team's success:
everything else


So at the age of 23, coming into the league as an undersized 7th round d-man, he axchieved points 1 and 2 and is looking good by now to put another "check" after the third task. "It's a process" as Chevy would say, but he'd be right here - player development certainly is 100% "a process".

 

[DRW204]

I'm not talking to you only you just happened to be the last one talking about it but I honestly don't understand the approach to it.

What did people expect to happen? Niku is a 7th round pick! He now played about 50 games in the NHL and is starting to look comfortable. I'd argue that is quite an okay or at least very much expected development curve for an undersized 7th round offensive defenseman. I know it's a topic that is kind of an universal problem on HFboards but it is all about expectation management honestly.


for a guy like Niku, this is the obvious roadmap:

1. Get called up: check!
2. Stay on the roster: check!
3. Get comfy playing on a day-to-day basis: working on it!
4. Starting to put all your strengths and skills out there:
5. Doing it on a regular basis:
6. Becoming a day-to-day contributor the teams success:
everything else


So at the age of 23 years old, coming into the league as an undersized 7th round d-man, he finished points 1 and 2 and is looking good by now to put another "check" after the third task. "It's a process" as Chevy would say, but he'd be right here - player development certainly is 100% "a process".

I expect him to be better than the results he has posted and at atleast be a positive on the ice. A bad defensive player that cannot generate enough chances or goals to be a net positive is not a good player. He might be good in a year, 2 years from now who knows, he also might not be. But i am posting based off what he's done so far, and that's just be a net negative on the ice.

 

[Flair Hay]

Some of the plays he is making definitely indicate he can be a solid top 4 guy in the league for a while. Skating and poise with the puck is awesome.

It may take him a couple hundred games to truly be a steady player defensively. That's pretty normal. Good news for him is he is cheap and we need any defense we can get so he is probably going to get lots of experience the next year or two.

I can't really think of a NHLer to compare him to but he definitely looks the part for a rookie 7th rounder.

 

[GJF]

I expect him to be better than the results he has posted and at atleast be a positive on the ice. A bad defensive player that cannot generate enough chances or goals to be a net positive is not a good player. He might be good in a year, 2 years from now who knows, he also might not be. But i am posting based off what he's done so far, and that's just be a net negative on the ice.

But what does that mean? Would you prefer for him to be taken out of the roster for someone else? Because I understand your argument but what would be the outcome of it?

Maybe it's just a misunderstanding and you and the other "not so happy with Niku"-kind of people are just stating what they are seeing but I don't get what you want to say about the player management of Sami Niku.

 

[Ducky10]

I expect him to be better than the results he has posted and at atleast be a positive on the ice. A bad defensive player that cannot generate enough chances or goals to be a net positive is not a good player. He might be good in a year, 2 years from now who knows, he also might not be. But i am posting based off what he's done so far, and that's just be a net negative on the ice.

Interesting development plan. The who knows whether he'll be good 2 years from now is the reason you play him now and why they should have been playing him more often earlier. He's been steadily improving in a number of areas, whether you choose to see it or not. He has a skill set that the Jets need and they need to give it time to fully develop and then figure out how to best utilize it. Having him paired with Kuli lately has been good for his game and the team, glad Maurice figured that out.

He hasn't been nearly as bad defensively in the last 4-5 games as a lot of people seem to want to make out. With players this early in their NHL development, especially defensemen, you look for indicators they are improving in certain areas and situations. It's pretty clear that's happening in a number of them, whether it shows up on your game to game advanced stat sheet or not. To look at advanced metrics in such a ridiculously small sample size and come to conclusions is the very definition of short sighted.

 

[DRW204]

But what does that mean? Would you prefer for him to be taken out of the roster for someone else? Because I understand your argument but what would be the outcome of it?

Maybe it's just a misunderstanding and you and the other "not so happy with Niku"-kind of people are just stating what they are seeing but I don't get what you want to say about the player management of Sami Niku.

I am not sure what you are asking. He's probably just as bad s Bitetto and all the waiver fodder, however he does have youth on his side. If you are getting the same crap results from two players id rather go with the younger player with potential upside and gain experience. But, that does not delude from the fact when he's on the ice, he still bleeds chances against at the highest rate from our D group, and does not produce enough chances or points to be a net positive.

Interesting development plan. The who knows whether he'll be good 2 years from now is the reason you play him now and why they should have been playing him more often earlier. He's been steadily improving in a number of areas, whether you choose to see it or not. He has a skill set that the Jets need and they need to give it time to fully develop and then figure out how to best utilize it. Having him paired with Kuli lately has been good for his game and the team, glad Maurice figured that out.

He hasn't been nearly as bad defensively in the last 4-5 games as a lot of people seem to want to make out. With players this early in their NHL development, especially defensemen, you look for indicators they are improving in certain areas and situations. It's pretty clear that's happening in a number of them, whether it shows up on your game to game advanced stat sheet or not. To look at advanced metrics in such a ridiculously small sample size and come to conclusions is the very definition of short sighted.

Surely you can point to me where i said he should be taken out, b/c i have never said that. just commenting on what i see and what the numbers say. he hasn't been good at all. He might be good couple years from now and i'll happy to post about it when he is.

 

[WPGChief]

I'm not talking to you only you just happened to be the last one talking about it but I honestly don't understand the approach to it.

What did people expect to happen? Niku is a 7th round pick! He now played about 50 games in the NHL and is starting to look comfortable. I'd argue that is quite an okay or at least very much expected development curve for an undersized 7th round offensive defenseman. I know it's a topic that is kind of an universal problem on HFboards but it is all about expectation management honestly.


for a guy like Niku, this is the obvious roadmap:

1. Get called up: check!
2. Stay on the roster: check!
3. Get comfy playing on a day-to-day basis: working on it!
4. Starting to put all your strengths and skills out there:
5. Doing it on a regular basis:
6. Becoming a day-to-day contributor to the team's success:
everything else


So at the age of 23, coming into the league as an undersized 7th round d-man, he axchieved points 1 and 2 and is looking good by now to put another "check" after the third task. "It's a process" as Chevy would say, but he'd be right here - player development certainly is 100% "a process".

The problem with Niku is exactly to do with managing expectations.

The reason why @garret9 and company liked the player was because he was vastly underrated for where he was drafted. Based on his numbers, he had a greater chance of developing to a NHL defensemen in comparison to basically any player drafted around him. Unfortunately, when people see “undervalued draftee” being praised, it feels like people automatically assume that it’s top 2 or 4, or a complete bust. And then Niku had to go and win the AHL Defenseman of the Year award in his rookie season, so shame on him for increasing expectations even further. Even the coaching staff seems to have say it’s top 4 or bust for Niku, as they choose to have a more physical bottom pairing (through hits or fights now, apparently) as they sent him up and down the hallway between the Moose and Jets using the TOI argument that he essentially lost from sitting in the press box so much.

I still think Niku develops into a really good bottom pairing player that can slide into the middle pairing in case of injury, should they choose to play to his and the team’s strengths. Stapling him to the bench or sending him back to the press box or Moose every time he makes a small mistake as the other pairings get equally slammed because he’s young is a poor method for developing a player. No wonder there was murmurs of his frustration earlier this year.

 

[Channelcat]

Pretty quiet on the Niku front..........does a deal get done?

 

[JetsUK]

Pretty quiet on the Niku front..........does a deal get done?

Not sure now. He lives here these days, IIRC, and would be nice to see him get a real shot to succeed or fail, but he may not get that at this point.

 

[Weezeric]

Pretty quiet on the Niku front..........does a deal get done?

Probably haggling over a one way vs a two way deal.

 

[NotCommitted]

I hope he gets his chance or gets traded.

 

[kanadalainen]

I hope he signs, somehow I have a good feeling about this kid.

 

[DRW204]

think he gets dealt unless hes ok with a 3LD role

on the right side he's not better than demelo, pionk or poolman

he evidently wont play ahead of Morrissey on the top pair, and niku-pionk would get absolutely eaten alive out there. so niku-poolman might be the only option on him for this team.

 

[NotCommitted]

I hope he signs, somehow I have a good feeling about this kid.

Me too, though I understand why someone wouldn't, but his play and confidence with the puck is pretty special. He looked defensively pretty bad in the <20 games he played, but then again it's quite a rare and talented D-man who hits the ground running. Too bad 19-20 Jets was a horrible team and system for his kind of player. If he could get his D-game to okayish levels in the NHL, he would be worth a spot. Bottom pair or top-4 in a pinch and PP2. He probably would be the Jets best D-man on the PP already Though I doubt he will see PP time.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

If Pionk ever went down for a length of time I would think Niku gets his opportunity. Probably his best and last one.

 

[NotCommitted]

think he gets dealt unless hes ok with a 3LD role

on the right side he's not better than demelo, pionk or poolman

he evidently wont play ahead of Morrissey on the top pair, and niku-pionk would get absolutely eaten alive out there. so niku-poolman might be the only option on him for this team.

Yeah it's a bit unfortunate situation for him. Ideally you would bring him in softly in a sheltered role, so he could get acquinted with the NHL game in ease, play to his strengths and figure the D side out, but it doesn't look like it's a luxury the Jets can have. They would just have to give him a solid run of games and see what happens.

 

[DRW204]

Yeah it's a bit unfortunate situation for him. Ideally you would bring him in softly in a sheltered role, so he could get acquinted with the NHL game in ease, play to his strengths and figure the D side out, but it doesn't look like it's a luxury the Jets can have. They would just have to give him a solid run of games and see what happens.

i've been trying to optimistic about Niku, but he has not been impressive me either statistically or by my eyes. He has definite flashes of nice puck-moving abilities, but it has not translated much in offense or out-weigh the defensive short-comings.

seems like the team views him as a rd (most common linemates have been Kulikov and Chiarot). He just isn't a superior option to what we have on the Right Side. Id let Samberg and Heinola play over him on the Left too.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah it's a bit unfortunate situation for him. Ideally you would bring him in softly in a sheltered role, so he could get acquinted with the NHL game in ease, play to his strengths and figure the D side out, but it doesn't look like it's a luxury the Jets can have. They would just have to give him a solid run of games and see what happens.

7th rd d don't get a million chances so has to be ready to be amazing from get go.

 

[mazmin]

I’m really hoping he takes a one year two-way deal. Accept starting with the Moose, yet understand injuries will happen. The proof is in the pudding flavoured by last seasons blue line debacle.

If Niku can come from the farm and impress then he can save his NHL dreams. If he falters or runs into the injury bug again, in one year he’s free to switch teams or head to Europe.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I’m really hoping he takes a one year two-way deal. Accept starting with the Moose, yet understand injuries will happen. The proof is in the pudding flavoured by last seasons blue line debacle.

If Niku can come from the farm and impress then he can save his NHL dreams. If he falters or runs into the injury bug again, in one year he’s free to switch teams or head to Europe.

Also if he can legitimately try in the A. For a while he wasn't giving it 100% and having an attitude like that isn't cool for a tweener.

 

[mazmin]

Also if he can legitimately try in the A. For a while he wasn't giving it 100% and having an attitude like that isn't cool for a tweener.

That’s it. One last shot, a clean slate on a one year deal. It seems fair. He needs to earn the call up and then force the team to keep his spot open. The arrivals of Heinola, Samberg and DeMelo perceivably pushed Sami down the depth chart 2-3 spots.

 

[Mud Turtle]

Not sure now. He lives here these days, IIRC, and would be nice to see him get a real shot to succeed or fail, but he may not get that at this point.

He’s such a good skater and smart with the puck. A terror in the offensive zone. He’s just not all the good defensively.
I’ve always been curious. Is there precedent for an offensively talented D man to switch to forward at his age?
I could see him on the 4th line buzzing around, opening up space and creating chances.
Is that even a possibility? Because I don’t think he gets a chance on D.
Thoughts?