Player Discussion: Nikolaj "Probert" Ehlers Pt. 2

[QuietContrarian]

When was the first time we got bent over backwards? I think we did well in every major trade of Jets 2.0.

Well other than Pionk being a pleasant suprise, I think most here and other fanbases felt we got pretty shafted on that one.

 

[FFHockey]

The trouble is, he's the only one on the team with the requisite talent to fill that spot. We don't even have a legit number 2 center after him (unless you include a totally healthy Bryan Little).

Yep, I would agree with that statement 100%. I wish that the "early 2018" Scheifele would show up one day soon. He was looking like a Top 10 player the way he started the year.

 

[jetsforever]

At the risk of sounding like a Maurice-backer, I'll play devil's advocate and be a little critical of everybody's favourite Dane. Let me put it this way...creativity is great - when it works. It's a matter of hockey sense... you need to know what to do at the right time. often, I find that all too often, Ehlers passes when he should shoot, or holds on to the puck too long. Of all the talents on this team, I find myself screaming at Ehlers via the t.v. screen the most. He can be so frustrating.

With his skills, there's no way he shouldn't be a regular 30 goal scorer and close to a point per game player. He lacks the hockey sense of true offensive talents. He has all the skills in abundance (his skating alone is magnificent, but he can shoot and handle the puck too). Even at the wing, he should be a "line driver" regardless of who he plays with.

Of course Ehlers' moves don't always work, but at least in my opinion, my personal problem is that a guy like Connor (who is an awesome player as well, don't get me wrong) is stapled to the top line, 1st PP unit, and PK, while Ehlers is always pencilled in below. When anyone on the top line makes mistakes, the solution is to replace them with Connor. When Connor makes mistakes, nothing happens. I'm fine to rotate the forwards but it always feels like Ehlers gets the short end of the stick.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Well other than Pionk being a pleasant suprise, I think most here and other fanbases felt we got pretty shafted on that one.

We got shafted at the time. If you asked other fan bases about how much Trouba has produced is he worth 8 mil vs pionk at his salary and Heinola people would say in hindsight Chevy looks like a genius.

 

[LowLefty]

Of course Ehlers' moves don't always work, but at least in my opinion, my personal problem is that a guy like Connor (who is an awesome player as well, don't get me wrong) is stapled to the top line, 1st PP unit, and PK, while Ehlers is always pencilled in below. When anyone on the top line makes mistakes, the solution is to replace them with Connor. When Connor makes mistakes, nothing happens. I'm fine to rotate the forwards but it always feels like Ehlers gets the short end of the stick.

KC is not on the top line - must have been de-stapled
KC was off the PK last game (replaced by Cody) - de-stapled again

KC should probably be left out of this conversation - he is not the guy that recently displaced Ehlers
I know we sometimes like to slide KC into Ehlers's conversations - but maybe this time we can leave him out of it - just saying.

The problem with Ehler's is more likely between him and the coach - Mo doesn't like his game at times.
Interestingly enough, Mo loved Ehlers game early in the season when he was doing more shooting and less dancing -
Ehlers was also scoring more goals when he was shooting.

What I don't get is why is he back to his old game when he made it clear at the beginning of the season, after much off season reflection, that he was going to change up his game and get the puck on the net?

 

[JetsUK]

SBM

The problem with Ehler's is more likely between him and the coach - Mo doesn't like his game at times.
Interestingly enough, Mo loved Ehlers game early in the season when he was doing more shooting and less dancing -
Ehlers was also scoring more goals when he was shooting.

What I don't get is why is he back to his old game when he made it clear at the beginning of the season, after much off season reflection, that he was going to change up his game and get the puck on the net?

IIRC, the summer video program was about picking apart each game, identifying key trends, and using those to refine the details of his overall game going into the season -- it wasn't exclusively about getting the puck on the net. For a guy who now leads the team in some key metrics and is at the top of the league in some others, I'd say that his continuing efforts are being rewarded. And I'd dispute that he's back to "his old game," if by that you mean skating fast without purpose. No player is raising the play of pretty much anyone he plays with by being ineffectual. For the record, here was PM's response to the program:

The addition of watching video in the summer didn't come as a surprise to Paul Maurice, who is well aware Ehlers' dad, Heinz, is the coach of Denmark's national hockey team.

"He may not have had an option with that. It may have been at the dinner table," Maurice joked. "With Nik, he wants to get better and he wants to improve. We felt that happened for him last year. He comes into this league, skates like the wind, can put up points. Then each year - especially in the second half of last year - he started to figure out the Nik Ehlers way to grind.

"So Ehlers and (Adam) Lowry are going to grind in a different way. But each player has to be able to get combative and win battles and win pucks on the wall. For slightly built young players that's an awful big challenge."

I'd say that this quote is pretty telling. Grind, Nik, grind. Lowry can win infinite numbers of puck battles while being a black hole offensively, but Ehlers, who is defensively sound, an elite zone entry and possession player and now the team's best ES scorer, has to skate in straight lines, feed Wheeler the odd easy tap-in and "be combative." That, once again, is the PoMo Problem: have a baseline system, and force your personnel to play it, rather than adapting your system to take advantage of those unique strengths. So everyone grinds, and Lowrys, and is combative, and battles hard, or gets demoted -- except that some of them don't, and anyway we still lose.

Someone was musing weeks ago here that no professional sports org keeps a coach over a star player, but I honestly think there's few if any players the Jets keep over PoMo. Baffling, but there it is.

EDIT: Excuse the tones of rancour and desperation in this post -- and don't mean to single you out, LL. Those last two games have plumb worn me down.

 

[LowLefty]

IIRC, the summer video program was about picking apart each game, identifying key trends, and using those to refine the details of his overall game going into the season -- it wasn't exclusively about getting the puck on the net. For a guy who now leads the team in some key metrics and is at the top of the league in some others, I'd say that his continuing efforts are being rewarded. And I'd dispute that he's back to "his old game," if by that you mean skating fast without purpose. No player is raising the play of pretty much anyone he plays with by being ineffectual. For the record, here was PM's response to the program:

The addition of watching video in the summer didn't come as a surprise to Paul Maurice, who is well aware Ehlers' dad, Heinz, is the coach of Denmark's national hockey team.

"He may not have had an option with that. It may have been at the dinner table," Maurice joked. "With Nik, he wants to get better and he wants to improve. We felt that happened for him last year. He comes into this league, skates like the wind, can put up points. Then each year - especially in the second half of last year - he started to figure out the Nik Ehlers way to grind.

"So Ehlers and (Adam) Lowry are going to grind in a different way. But each player has to be able to get combative and win battles and win pucks on the wall. For slightly built young players that's an awful big challenge."

I'd say that this quote is pretty telling. Grind, Nik, grind. Lowry can win infinite numbers of puck battles while being a black hole offensively, but Ehlers, who is defensively sound, an elite zone entry and possession player and now the team's best ES scorer, has to skate in straight lines, feed Wheeler the odd easy tap-in and "be combative." That, once again, is the PoMo Problem: have a baseline system, and force your personnel to play it, rather than adapting your system to take advantage of those unique strengths. So everyone grinds, and Lowrys, and is combative, and battles hard, or gets demoted -- except that some of them don't, and anyway we still lose.

Someone was musing weeks ago here that no professional sports org keeps a coach over a star player, but I honestly think there's few if any players the Jets keep over PoMo. Baffling, but there it is.

Goods points - thanks for expanding.
BTW, I didn't say he was only asked to shoot - but that was the major point that Ehlers identified in his preseason interview.

I'm not pining for Mo here either - I'm simply pointing out what I think is holding him back based on the assumption that Mo wants him to shoot more.
Personally, I think he should - he scores more goals when he does and I think Mo would prefer he simplify his game a bit and get more pucks to the net (right or wrong).

The rest of his improvements have been covered and are absolutely important pcs to his development.

His zone entries are exceptional - it's what he does with the puck after entering the zone that might have Mo a little perturbed. I believe Mo wants these guys to get pucks to the net and create more traffic in front.
He's better along the boards than he has ever been - to think Mo wants to turn him into a grinder is no more true than he wants to turn Laine into one. But he wanted to add it to his game, that along with hard work and the all around game that Mo loves so much (and there's nothing wrong with that IMO).

All we can do is assume what Mo wants - right? Or we can discuss how bad Mo is and how Ehlers will never fit Mo's game. I like to hang onto Ehlers - so I hope he adapts - similar to how Laine, KC and others have over the years. Mo just signed a multi-year contract so I'll assume he's around for a bit - I also think he has received some credit for helping Laine fill out his game and keep this team within reach of a PO spot with or D challenges - the media has been on this for awhile. Debating whether any of this is true is not really that impactful - I honestly believe he is perceived as a very good coach right now and the Jet's org appear to have bought in. I hope Ehlers does too - he's got most of it covered - just shoot more

 

[DashingDane]

I might be the opposite at this point I hope he tells Paul to go f*** himself and hands in a trade request. Players careers are too short to waste 5+ years with a coach that doesn't appreciate the aspects that makes Nikky the player he is... It would be insanely depressing to see him stop being creative, changing his game to a north/south only player that dumps and chases like Paul wants. Have people forgotten Evander "shoot from anywhere" Kane and how frustrating that was?

 

[Duke749]

I might be the opposite at this point I hope he tells Paul to go f*** himself and hands in a trade request. Players careers are too short to waste 5+ years with a coach that doesn't appreciate the aspects that makes Nikky the player he is... It would be insanely depressing to see him stop being creative, changing his game to a north/south only player that dumps and chases like Paul wants. Have people forgotten Evander "shoot from anywhere" Kane and how frustrating that was?

I don’t think he’s trying to get him to play dump and chase. I just think he’s trying to get him to play more north/south while maintaining his effectiveness and also being able to go into the corners to retrieve the puck. At least that’s my positive viewpoint on it. Lol

 

[DashingDane]

I don’t think he’s trying to get him to play dump and chase. I just think he’s trying to get him to play more north/south while maintaining his effectiveness and also being able to go into the corners to retrieve the puck. At least that’s my positive viewpoint on it. Lol

Fair enough! I realize I have become quite the negative Nancy

 

[Positive]

"So Ehlers and (Adam) Lowry are going to grind in a different way. But each player has to be able to get combative and win battles and win pucks on the wall. For slightly built young players that's an awful big challenge."

I'd say that this quote is pretty telling. Grind, Nik, grind. Lowry can win infinite numbers of puck battles while being a black hole offensively, but Ehlers, who is defensively sound, an elite zone entry and possession player and now the team's best ES scorer, has to skate in straight lines, feed Wheeler the odd easy tap-in and "be combative." That, once again, is the PoMo Problem: have a baseline system, and force your personnel to play it, rather than adapting your system to take advantage of those unique strengths. So everyone grinds, and Lowrys, and is combative, and battles hard, or gets demoted -- except that some of them don't, and anyway we still lose.

That quote is true though; there isn't anything inaccurate in that one sentence. Some version of it has probably been parroted by most hockey coaches at some point. Every player has to be able to win a puck battle along the wall at any level above Timbits.

Saying that a player needs to be able to grind (and I would say 100% of players need to be able to) doesn't necessarily mean that he wants him to be a prototypical 'grinder'. Stretching words IMHO. The context there appears to be focused on his defensive abilities. i.e. he can fly like the wind and put up points, but when you don't have the puck...or it's a 50/50, you have to figure out how to get that puck back in a non-Lowry way.

 

[Gm0ney]

This is an interesting summary:



It's a long Twitter thread you'll have to view on there...

 

[JetsUK]

That quote is true though; there isn't anything inaccurate in that one sentence. Some version of it has probably been parroted by most hockey coaches at some point. Every player has to be able to win a puck battle along the wall at any level above Timbits.

Saying that a player needs to be able to grind (and I would say 100% of players need to be able to) doesn't necessarily mean that he wants him to be a prototypical 'grinder'. Stretching words IMHO. The context there appears to be focused on his defensive abilities. i.e. he can fly like the wind and put up points, but when you don't have the puck...or it's a 50/50, you have to figure out how to get that puck back in a non-Lowry way.

Maybe -- though perhaps no one stretches words quite like PoMo.

And since both metrics and eye-test have shown for some time that Ehlers is indeed capable of accomplishing these baseline defensive tasks in his own Ehlers-grindy way, and adds to that elite impact elsewhere on the ice, then the bone of contention isn't results, but something more like style, and since the bottom line is results, who cares about style, especially when that style turns out to be highly complementary in terms of driving a line efficiently while elevating line mates? And likely doubling his points totals over last season?

Maybe if Ehlers played a version of the B. Tanev Tasmanian devil game, skating N/S exclusively, looking astonishing busy and flinging himself round the ice, while recording 1/3 of the points and generally poor numbers? Genuinely don't get it.

 

[grieves]

Fair enough! I realize I have become quite the negative Nancy

I would be Negative Satan if I were you so Nancy is pretty good.

Ehlers is not built for battling in corners. It's not the best idea to expect him to perform like that.

The usage of Ehlers is pretty obviously amateurish. It's cool, we have a coach that does other things well but the Ehlers situation is at an amateur-level. It happens,.

 

[LowLefty]

Maybe if Ehlers played a version of the B. Tanev Tasmanian devil game, skating N/S exclusively, looking astonishing busy and flinging himself round the ice, while recording 1/3 of the points and generally poor numbers? Genuinely don't get it.

Do you really believe that is what Mo wants? Or maybe just a little less "cute" and a little more " north / south"?
I get why the situation has many up in arms - but there's likely some middle ground that needs to be explored in order to get Ehlers more aligned with what Mo is looking for:

Get the puck on the net or get it to someone (quickly) who can.
Get your first string line mates involved off the rush and do it on entry.
Use your speed through the neutral zone and your head in the O zone - ie; play making with 2 very good line mates.

I apologize for repeating myself - I'm stuck on this point and I can't see or find another motive for Mo's coaching approach with this guy.
Right or wrong, this is what i think is going on -

 

[Yzing]

Penalties Drawn/60 minus Penalties Taken/60

2019-20 Season including February 25th games. Table available at nhl.com (penalties report). Filtered at 30 games, 30 points. There are 197 players after filtering.

Rank	Player	GP	P	Pen D/60	Pen T/60	Net Pen/60
1	Elias Pettersson	61	59	1.44	0.43	1.01
2	Nikolaj Ehlers	65	52	1.60	0.66	0.94
3	Roope Hintz	54	32	1.43	0.53	0.91
4	Jack Eichel	61	77	1.38	0.54	0.85
5	Rocco Grimaldi	59	30	1.12	0.32	0.80
6	Anthony Cirelli	61	42	1.50	0.70	0.80
7	Nathan MacKinnon	61	84	1.02	0.23	0.79
8	Nico Hischier	51	33	1.10	0.32	0.78
9	Martin Necas	58	34	1.39	0.66	0.73
10	Jaden Schwartz	64	51	1.09	0.36	0.72
12	Brad Marchand	64	79	2.05	1.34	0.72
29	Leon Draisaitl	63	99	0.80	0.34	0.46
32	Artemi Panarin	61	85	0.87	0.43	0.43
33	Connor McDavid	57	87	1.10	0.67	0.43
64	Blake Wheeler	65	57	1.01	0.77	0.24
66	Auston Matthews	64	74	0.41	0.18	0.23
71	David Pastrnak	64	88	1.03	0.83	0.20
77	Sidney Crosby	33	41	0.63	0.45	0.18
79	Mark Scheifele	65	68	0.89	0.72	0.17
91	Nikita Kucherov	61	76	0.95	0.84	0.11
123	Patrick Kane	63	78	0.63	0.63	0.00
125	Patrik Laine	63	59	0.52	0.52	0.00
129	Kyle Connor	65	64	0.44	0.48	-0.04
143	Neal Pionk	65	42	0.47	0.59	-0.12
148	Alex Ovechkin	62	60	0.55	0.69	-0.14
173	Evgeni Malkin	47	62	1.24	1.56	-0.33
197	Evander Kane	57	37	0.81	1.78	-0.97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'll admit that these stats are a bit random or silly as there is too much subtext missing. But taken at face value these numbers tells us that Ehlers gives the Jets a one-man advantage almost every hour he's on the ice.

Ehlers' 1.6 penalties drawn/60 is fifth in the league using the current filters but the 4 players ahead of him have all taken way more penalties (B. Tkachuk, Marchand, M. Tkachuk, Kadri).

 

[jetsforever]

Penalties Drawn/60 minus Penalties Taken/60

2019-20 Season including February 25th games. Table available at nhl.com (penalties report). Filtered at 30 games, 30 points. There are 197 players after filtering.

Rank	Player	GP	P	Pen D/60	Pen T/60	Net Pen/60
1	Elias Pettersson	61	59	1.44	0.43	1.01
2	Nikolaj Ehlers	65	52	1.60	0.66	0.94
3	Roope Hintz	54	32	1.43	0.53	0.91
4	Jack Eichel	61	77	1.38	0.54	0.85
5	Rocco Grimaldi	59	30	1.12	0.32	0.80
6	Anthony Cirelli	61	42	1.50	0.70	0.80
7	Nathan MacKinnon	61	84	1.02	0.23	0.79
8	Nico Hischier	51	33	1.10	0.32	0.78
9	Martin Necas	58	34	1.39	0.66	0.73
10	Jaden Schwartz	64	51	1.09	0.36	0.72
12	Brad Marchand	64	79	2.05	1.34	0.72
29	Leon Draisaitl	63	99	0.80	0.34	0.46
32	Artemi Panarin	61	85	0.87	0.43	0.43
33	Connor McDavid	57	87	1.10	0.67	0.43
64	Blake Wheeler	65	57	1.01	0.77	0.24
66	Auston Matthews	64	74	0.41	0.18	0.23
71	David Pastrnak	64	88	1.03	0.83	0.20
77	Sidney Crosby	33	41	0.63	0.45	0.18
79	Mark Scheifele	65	68	0.89	0.72	0.17
91	Nikita Kucherov	61	76	0.95	0.84	0.11
123	Patrick Kane	63	78	0.63	0.63	0.00
125	Patrik Laine	63	59	0.52	0.52	0.00
129	Kyle Connor	65	64	0.44	0.48	-0.04
143	Neal Pionk	65	42	0.47	0.59	-0.12
148	Alex Ovechkin	62	60	0.55	0.69	-0.14
173	Evgeni Malkin	47	62	1.24	1.56	-0.33
197	Evander Kane	57	37	0.81	1.78	-0.97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'll admit that these stats are a bit random or silly as there is too much subtext missing. But taken at face value these numbers tells us that Ehlers gives the Jets a one-man advantage almost every hour he's on the ice.

Ehlers' 1.6 penalties drawn/60 is fifth in the league using the current filters but the 4 players ahead of him have all taken way more penalties (B. Tkachuk, Marchand, M. Tkachuk, Kadri).

We all know that Ehlers is a generational penalty-drawer, and he does it with speed and skill rather than cheap shots like some of those other guys.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

@bennylundholm

The only person who knows for sure is Ehlers.
Difference of opinion is fine but to state "no way" and "only" is a little close-minded.
I've played with guys who have been pissed at the coach and done a number of stupid things out of spite.
The fact PoMo let him be the 5th shooter I'd say doesn't make him grateful. He's been on the low end of ice time, power play time 3 on e time all season. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that Ehlers is more than a little fed up.

Is "no way" and "only" close-minded? Maybe. It was intended to express certainty. Maybe that is the same thing.

He may be more than a little fed up. I'd be surprised if he isn't. But I think there is "no way" he would deliberately throw a game to send a message. If he did that the message would be "trade me", because that would be the result. Sorry if I am a little too certain for you, but I am certain. Do you want me to pretend I'm not?

 

[DRW204]

10th in the NHL in 5v5 pts
8th in the NHL in 5v5 primary points
14th in the NHL in 5v5 pts/game

 

[DashingDane]

A Nikky fluff piece (behind paywall) and the warmup clip that I haven't noticed anywhere...

Subscriber Q&A: Nikolaj Ehlers on inspiring other Danes,...

 

[voyageur]

Maybe -- though perhaps no one stretches words quite like PoMo.

And since both metrics and eye-test have shown for some time that Ehlers is indeed capable of accomplishing these baseline defensive tasks in his own Ehlers-grindy way, and adds to that elite impact elsewhere on the ice, then the bone of contention isn't results, but something more like style, and since the bottom line is results, who cares about style, especially when that style turns out to be highly complementary in terms of driving a line efficiently while elevating line mates? And likely doubling his points totals over last season?

Maybe if Ehlers played a version of the B. Tanev Tasmanian devil game, skating N/S exclusively, looking astonishing busy and flinging himself round the ice, while recording 1/3 of the points and generally poor numbers? Genuinely don't get it.

Do you think it maybe goes beyond the simple analytics of shots and zone entries, and into a playoff mentality? Space gets reduced in the playoffs, hits are a little harder, and battles amplified. And regular season scoring leaders don't automatically translate into playoff scoring leaders as the numbers suggest.

I see a lot of improvement in Ehlers game, going to scoring areas, and using his leg strength, but he still isn't the strongest along the boards, and it is absurd to think that offensive zone entries don't inevitably break down into board battles. Any team defending wants to push you outside their box. Ehlers has a strength in the offensive zone to change speeds and angles, which grinding players don't, which he can use to his advantage.

If there is one improvement I'd like to see from him, is to take the puck directly to the net, once he enters with speed. Like the Scheifele power move that earned us a point in Washington. It doesm't even have to be at the net, could be around it. But he still avoids contact, as much as possible, and the peeling inside the blue line, automatically negates the speed generated, and becomes a battle to find/create seams, after that.

 

[DRW204]

5v5

8th in primary points per 60

9th in totals for both

 

[JetsUK]

View attachment 333901

8th in primary points per 60

9th in totals for both

...and the best pound-for-pound brawler on that list

 

[Jet]

Well other than Pionk being a pleasant suprise, I think most here and other fanbases felt we got pretty shafted on that one.

Yet it seems to be quite the opposite.

 

[hn777]

5v5

View attachment 333901

8th in primary points per 60

9th in totals for both

I think, I have yet to see a statistical measure not showing Ehlers elite at 5v5/60!

Interesting to see, compared to those players Ehlers is not particularly "underused" at 5v5 (see Marchand!). The problem is more his underusage at PP, 4v4, 3v3, and the general overusage of Connor, Scheifele, (Wheeler, Laine).