Player Discussion: Nikolaj "Probert" Ehlers Pt. 2

[DRW204]

I think, I have yet to see a statistical measure not showing Ehlers elite at 5v5/60!

Interesting to see, compared to those players Ehlers is not particularly "underused" at 5v5 (see Marchand!). The problem is more his underusage at PP, 4v4, 3v3, and the general overusage of Connor, Scheifele, (Wheeler, Laine).

Yeah i was a bit surprised at the 5v5 toi/gp. but when you start looking at EV TOI (including EN), and Special Teams TOI is when other players on the Jets pull ahead

 

[NikoEhlers]

I think, I have yet to see a statistical measure not showing Ehlers elite at 5v5/60!

Interesting to see, compared to those players Ehlers is not particularly "underused" at 5v5 (see Marchand!). The problem is more his underusage at PP, 4v4, 3v3, and the general overusage of Connor, Scheifele, (Wheeler, Laine).

I would over-use Ehlers in 4-4, 3-3 situations, hard to defend against him with more ice open. I am liking Ehlers game this season, steady upwards trajectory

 

[Adam da bomb]

I would over-use Ehlers in 4-4, 3-3 situations, hard to defend against him with more ice open. I am liking Ehlers game this season, steady upwards trajectory

There is no overusing Ehlers in those situations as he would be so good.

 

[Gm0ney]

I think, I have yet to see a statistical measure not showing Ehlers elite at 5v5/60!

Interesting to see, compared to those players Ehlers is not particularly "underused" at 5v5 (see Marchand!). The problem is more his underusage at PP, 4v4, 3v3, and the general overusage of Connor, Scheifele, (Wheeler, Laine).

Forwards 5v5 TOI/GP
1. Scheifele (16:53)
2. Connor (15:32)
3. Laine (15:16)
4. Ehlers (14:15)
5. Wheeler (14:05)

Forwards ES TOI/GP
1. Scheifele (18:06, +1:13)
2. Connor (16:37, +1:05)
3. Laine (16:09, +0:53)
4. Wheeler (15:16, +1:11)
5. Ehlers (15:02, +0:47)

 

[hn777]

Forwards 5v5 TOI/GP
1. Scheifele (16:53)
2. Connor (15:32)
3. Laine (15:16)
4. Ehlers (14:15)
5. Wheeler (14:05)

Forwards ES TOI/GP
1. Scheifele (18:06, +1:13)
2. Connor (16:37, +1:05)
3. Laine (16:09, +0:53)
4. Wheeler (15:16, +1:11)
5. Ehlers (15:02, +0:47)

Yes, if you look at Boston and St Louis - teams that know how to win in the playoffs - they both have a much lower span in 5v5 TOI between #1's Pastrnak (14:04), Schenn (14:22) and #12's in TOI Nordström (9:49) and Kyrou (10:30). Jets, OTOH have a span of 8:41 minutes between Scheifele and #12 Bourque (8:12), or 6:53 minutes to #11 Appleton (10:00) (if you want to exclude Bourque, who is out of the lineup now).

"Fun" fact: Scheifele is #1 in 5v5 TOI league wide among forwards.

 

[ovythegiraffe]

Of the top-50 in 5v5 points (55+ gp) (Ehlers in 10th place), Ehlers is:

29th in ES TOI/GP

44th in OT TOI/GP

50th in PP TOI/GP

45th in TOI/GP

of the top-100, Ehlers is:

49th in ES TOI/GP

82nd in OT TOI/GP

92nd in PP TOI/GP

82nd in TOI/GP

His 5v5 toi is decent enough, but other than that it's pretty insane tbh. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he demanded a trade in the next couple years if nothing changes.

 

[Gm0ney]

Yes, if you look at Boston and St Louis - teams that know how to win in the playoffs - they both have a much lower span in 5v5 TOI between #1's Pastrnak (14:04), Schenn (14:22) and #12's in TOI Nordström (9:49) and Kyrou (10:30). Jets, OTOH have a span of 8:41 minutes between Scheifele and #12 Bourque (8:12), or 6:53 minutes to #11 Appleton (10:00) (if you want to exclude Bourque, who is out of the lineup now).

"Fun" fact: Scheifele is #1 in 5v5 TOI league wide among forwards.

Well, Scheifele was our only natural C for a while there with Little and Lowry both out (not counting sometimes C's like Copp and Roslo or 4th line C Shore)...so you'd expect him to log considerable ice time. Of course, he's 6th in the NHL in 5v5 TOI/GP over the 3 seasons prior to this one, so he didn't have a huge hill to climb to get to #1.

Maurice tends to ride his horses pretty hard in any event. "Playing your best players more" is a strategy I can certainly understand - although with Ehlers being the best forward, you'd like to see more of him.

It's been said here before by others and me: Maurice just isn't comfortable with Ehlers' style of play. It's the same thing that frustrates some fans in the eye test where you hear things like "sure he enters the zone, but then he does nothing" (even though we can statistically prove he's not doing "nothing"). That bias for N-S, chip, chase, grind, game that's synonymous with the "North American Game". Guys who fit more into that typical NA mold get the grease. Connor is very Ehlers-like in skill and size - but plays a more traditional N-S game...so he gets more trust from PoMo.

 

[LowLefty]

Well, Scheifele was our only natural C for a while there with Little and Lowry both out (not counting sometimes C's like Copp and Roslo or 4th line C Shore)...so you'd expect him to log considerable ice time. Of course, he's 6th in the NHL in 5v5 TOI/GP over the 3 seasons prior to this one, so he didn't have a huge hill to climb to get to #1.

Maurice tends to ride his horses pretty hard in any event. "Playing your best players more" is a strategy I can certainly understand - although with Ehlers being the best forward, you'd like to see more of him.

It's been said here before by others and me: Maurice just isn't comfortable with Ehlers' style of play. It's the same thing that frustrates some fans in the eye test where you hear things like "sure he enters the zone, but then he does nothing" (even though we can statistically prove he's not doing "nothing"). That bias for N-S, chip, chase, grind, game that's synonymous with the "North American Game". Guys who fit more into that typical NA mold get the grease. Connor is very Ehlers-like in skill and size - but plays a more traditional N-S game...so he gets more trust from PoMo.

Not sure Mo is uncomfortable with Ehlers game
Might be more to do with line mate match ups where Scheif and Wheels play NS and Kc fits
Ehlers fits better with Line and per earlier discussions, the line needs a C that will work well with these two and their game.
Regardless, our NS #1 center is what really gets the grease and players with a similar style accompany - this makes sense IMO.
A new #2 center will help drive the second line into what might become the first at some point. Until then, we are a NS team with a couple of highly skilled exceptions

 

[Gm0ney]

Not sure Mo is uncomfortable with Ehlers game
Might be more to do with line mate match ups where Scheif and Wheels play NS and Kc fits
Ehlers fits better with Line and per earlier discussions, the line needs a C that will work well with these two and their game.
Regardless, our NS #1 center is what really gets the grease and players with a similar style accompany - this makes sense IMO.
A new #2 center will help drive the second line into what might become the first at some point. Until then, we are a NS team with a couple of highly skilled exceptions

None of the stats support this though.

 

[LowLefty]

None of the stats support this though.

None?
Line looks good right now
So does the second
Is that enough?

 

[DashingDane]

 

[ps241]

On this debate I think it’s more Scheif and Wheeler like playing with a Connor more even though they are more effective with a Ehlers. Honestly I don’t mind spreading our talent out so I am ok with Connor on the top line.

For my money as soon as next season Laine may be our #1 RW and Ehlers is already our best LW so we just need a decent centre and we will have a 1a and 1b line. I think Copp can fill that role as a placeholder for now especially if Laine takes another step forward. The wingers can drive the offense and Copp can drive their play without the puck. That combination is a more balanced two way line. As Laine hits his prime I think he and Ehlers line will be our best.

Scheif has peaked, Wheeler will decline (how fast who knows), Connor is a wild card if he grows his game it could keep that line stronger as Blake slowly sunsets.

I think Blake has one more year beside Scheif on that top line depending on Paul’s philosophy (spread the wealth vs stack). A number 2 center would be nice I guess we’ll see if that happens this off season.

I would like any #2 center option to defend well. I didn’t like how our top six defended this past season.

 

[TS Quint]

Ehlers is one of my favorite players but he needs to be more consistent. He needs to take the puck to the net like he did early in the season. The last half he was skating around the perimeter. Sure controlling the puck and not giving it to the other team makes your fancy stats look good but it also is the reason why his fancy stats dont line up with his actual production.

 

[QuietContrarian]

Ehlers is one of my favorite players but he needs to be more consistent. He needs to take the puck to the net like he did early in the season. The last half he was skating around the perimeter. Sure controlling the puck and not giving it to the other team makes your fancy stats look good but it also is the reason why his fancy stats dont line up with his actual production.

I think his production lines up quite well with his toi and no pp1.
Don’t think we will ever get more out of him unless he gets pp1/more toi.

 

[DashingDane]

You all know I'm always good for a Ehlers thread bump. Article has a paywall but thought the parts about what the NHL head coach and pro scout think are interesting and in line with what a lot of posters has been saying for some time.

Mastering the game-within-a-game: Nikolaj Ehlers scores his first playoff goal

 

[sipowicz]

Felt good and felt good for Ehlers after he scored his first playoff goal which turned out to be the game winning goal, don’t tell anyone in the GDT or PGT that I posted this!

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

Felt good and felt good for Ehlers after he scored his first playoff goal which turned out to be the game winning goal, don’t tell anyone in the GDT or PGT that I posted this!

I'm saving this, so I can remember you said something nice about him.

 

[GumbyCan2]

Of course Ehlers' moves don't always work, but at least in my opinion, my personal problem is that a guy like Connor (who is an awesome player as well, don't get me wrong) is stapled to the top line, 1st PP unit, and PK, while Ehlers is always pencilled in below. When anyone on the top line makes mistakes, the solution is to replace them with Connor. When Connor makes mistakes, nothing happens. I'm fine to rotate the forwards but it always feels like Ehlers gets the short end of the stick.

Fast forwarding to the "summer-league/play-ins" here.
This series against the Flames has me most "Peed" K Connor. He is flying around with the puck, circling, seeking, and then giving it away or having passes disrupted. SHOOT-the-Dang puck when close or a slight open angle, already, Man!
He was our bestgoal scorer last season and a half. From shooting more than not! Yes, Ehlers dangles dangerously and leaves the puck behind sometimes. But, that is a dowmn-sidd to his skill-set. If coaching tries to stop himfromwinding it up, circling, dragging thepuck and opponents around 1/2 the ice, then who us going to carry the play for us?? Keep a dman behind him, ready for the "unintentional odd droppass he leaves behind and let him do his thing. Needteammates, we line-mates to play with him doing this, getting free and set for passes to shoot, tip-in or return to an open Ehlers on the fly.
Simple but 3 years worth of time and still noteffectivelyformulatedfrom a team, coachingaspect. How come?

 

[larmex99]

Your space bar is malfunctioning Gumby. I do that after a couple shots of tequila, the wonder sedative.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Fast forwarding to the "summer-league/play-ins" here.
This series against the Flames has me most "Peed" K Connor. He is flying around with the puck, circling, seeking, and then giving it away or having passes disrupted. SHOOT-the-Dang puck when close or a slight open angle, already, Man!
He was our bestgoal scorer last season and a half. From shooting more than not! Yes, Ehlers dangles dangerously and leaves the puck behind sometimes. But, that is a dowmn-sidd to his skill-set. If coaching tries to stop himfromwinding it up, circling, dragging thepuck and opponents around 1/2 the ice, then who us going to carry the play for us?? Keep a dman behind him, ready for the "unintentional odd droppass he leaves behind and let him do his thing. Needteammates, we line-mates to play with him doing this, getting free and set for passes to shoot, tip-in or return to an open Ehlers on the fly.
Simple but 3 years worth of time and still noteffectivelyformulatedfrom a team, coachingaspect. How come?

But Connor has not had any turnovers as bad as Ehlers on that 1st goal last night god that was ugly. Ehlers was supposed to be the most responsible defensively in our top 6 which he hasnt been. What I took from this is Ehlers needs to play more in control.

 

[DashingDane]

But Connor has not had any turnovers as bad as Ehlers on that 1st goal last night god that was ugly. Ehlers was supposed to be the most responsible defensively in our top 6 which he hasnt been. What I took from this is Ehlers needs to play more in control.

Super ugly turnover and definitely on Nikky for not looking up first. But it was a pretty standard breakout pass that 9/10 times has a team mate receiving it. Unfortunately JoMo was knocked up and Flames capitalized. Connor had one in game 1 that we got lucky didn't turn into a goal. With that being said I think Connor played better than Nikky yesterday.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Super ugly turnover and definitely on Nikky for not looking up first. But it was a pretty standard breakout pass that 9/10 times has a team mate receiving it. Unfortunately JoMo was knocked up and Flames capitalized. Connor had one in game 1 that we got lucky didn't turn into a goal. With that being said I think Connor played better than Nikky yesterday.

But Nikky now has that 1st goal and has that monkey off his back so will go back to being regular season dominant.

 

[jetsforever]

But Connor has not had any turnovers as bad as Ehlers on that 1st goal last night god that was ugly. Ehlers was supposed to be the most responsible defensively in our top 6 which he hasnt been. What I took from this is Ehlers needs to play more in control.

That was a bad one last night but everyone does those at times, Connor included. Ehlers is very good at certain things but sometimes they backfire in more noticeable ways than other people do.

 

[Duke749]

But Connor has not had any turnovers as bad as Ehlers on that 1st goal last night god that was ugly. Ehlers was supposed to be the most responsible defensively in our top 6 which he hasnt been. What I took from this is Ehlers needs to play more in control.

You’re way overanalyzing one play and extrapolating that throughout two games. We can’t get too caught up on any individual plays right now good or bad. We’re two games in after a 4 month layoff. Gotta take the positives and build on those because there’s been a lot of mistakes. We’re not watching polished hockey right now from either team.

 

[pucka lucka]

Super ugly turnover and definitely on Nikky for not looking up first. But it was a pretty standard breakout pass that 9/10 times has a team mate receiving it. Unfortunately JoMo was knocked up and Flames capitalized. Connor had one in game 1 that we got lucky didn't turn into a goal. With that being said I think Connor played better than Nikky yesterday.

Also, how many times does KC give up possession dumping and chasing pucks he never should have dumped in the first place. KC is like a dog playing fetch by himself.