NHL suspends season due to COVID-19 pandemic part two

[Beville]

Do you actually read the articles you post? It doesn’t say that all open up next week. It says a plan will be developed next week

I hadn’t read the article but to open up is absolutely absurd.

And I gather that isn’t the topic of the post

Quarantine this weekend has been beautiful; sun, beer and good BBQ food.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?

...

I don't quite know what to make of this. The exact text is that "88% have at least one pre-morbidity" --- which I assume is a chronic health condition, which is likely to shorten the persons life?

I mean, if I have a heart condition and get viral pneumonia and I die because my heart isn't strong enough to get me thru that illness -- have I died of pneumonia or the heart condition?

I have absolutely no expertise in this area. But, I still have a hard time buying that because the people dying of this have other conditions that the COVID-19 death numbers are overstated, or that the media is being irresponsible in reporting those numbers.

 

[Larionov]

Lost in all of the news of the pandemic is the absolutely heartbreaking loss of Oilers prospect Colby Cave. I just saw that he passed away early today in hospital in Toronto after the brain bleed he suffered. He had a colloid cyst on his brain - total fluke thing, no way to diagnose it ahead of time, etc. They performed emergency surgery earlier this week and put him in a coma to give him a chance at recovery, but unfortunately even a highly skilled medical team couldn't save him. What a terrible loss for his family and his teammates...

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I don't quite know what to make of this. The exact text is that "88% have at least one pre-morbidity" --- which I assume is a chronic health condition, which is likely to shorten the persons life?

I mean, if I have a heart condition and get viral pneumonia and I die because my heart isn't strong enough to get me thru that illness -- have I died of pneumonia or the heart condition?

I have absolutely no expertise in this area. But, I still have a hard time buying that because the people dying of this have other conditions that the COVID-19 death numbers are overstated, or that the media is being irresponsible in reporting those numbers.

You raise a valid example but say a patient with multiple pre-mordibities (which is the vast majority of people ~98 percent in Italy and I am pretty sure globally) is asymptomatic, passes away but tested positive for COVID-19, the cause of death on their death certificate is COVID-19. Asymptomatic people will probably not go to the ER but will go due to their pre existing conditions that cause severe complications and die because of it.

These number gets used in their models. The models are used to deploy strict measures on the population. Economy plummets. Its a dangerous game of numbers that is affecting the masses. It's misleading to use that number and present it as fact to the public.

There is also quite the distinction between dying with the virus and dying due to the virus. This distinction isn't made nor is it brought to light. I haven't seen any new outlets raising that re-evaluation for awareness despite on going mentions of the total death tolls in Italy.

This is the English version of the document you posted earlier.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjABegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw3ZO3Qa5oE9lFTexjM99jg4

Look at the percentage of patients with pre-morbidities. I believe only 2 percent had 0

 

[thinkwild]

It is an interesting issue this attributing the cause of death properly. I hadn’t really thought much of it before. It must be a similar issue in all sorts of disasters. But I can’t imagine this is seriously affecting the models right now. All the component numbers in the models are still being refined and are going to improve with more data including probably re-looking at some old deaths. But the exponential growth part is pretty clear.

I would have thought most of the people are dying in hospitals where they entered with covid symptoms and died with them so the attribution seems clear? Who are the people dying asymptomatically yet still tested yet for Covid? So far I thought the resources for testing were pretty rationed. Im not sure I see the large numbers that are enough to send the models out of whack yet.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

It is an interesting issue this attributing the cause of death properly. I hadn’t really thought much of it before. It must be a similar issue in all sorts of disasters. But I can’t imagine this is seriously affecting the models right now. All the component numbers in the models are still being refined and are going to improve with more data including probably re-looking at some old deaths. But the exponential growth part is pretty clear.

I would have thought most of the people are dying in hospitals where they entered with covid symptoms and died with them so the attribution seems clear? Who are the people dying asymptomatically yet still tested yet for Covid? So far I thought the resources for testing were pretty rationed. Im not sure I see the large numbers that are enough to send the models out of whack yet.

Has the government made public the data they used for modelling? It would be interesting to see what numbers they are using for their projections.

People dying with COVID-19 isn't an accurate portrayal of deaths caused by it. Again, no distinction is made.

There was an article somewhere about the underlying numbers are more than expected due to people dying at home. I wonder if the fear generated by these numbers are preventing people who would've gone to the hospital for other underlying issues and eventually succumbing to them at home or elsewhere. You would think if anyone had symptoms of Covid-19 they would be heading to the ER.

 

[Knave]

I have the time feel free to explain what ever you are willing to share ... if every impacted nation (most) print and inflate their currencies at a similar rate to combat deflation and all the handouts is there a chance we all come out of this “normal” ?

The Bank of Canada sets the interest rates in the economy and that is the main way in which it controls the supply of money in the economy (and inflation/deflation as a result).

Modern banking is based on a fractional reserve system (it's capital requirement now but roughly the same thing). What this means is if you are a commercial bank... say CIBC. Someone deposits $100 and creates an account with CIBC. CIBC is required to keep $10 as a reserve (or capital requirement) and CIBC can loan out the remaining $90. This 'creates' money. Lets say you deposit $100, I apply for a loan receive $90 and deposit that, someone else applies for a loan, are given $81 and the bank keeps $9. The supply of money went from your $100 to $190 to $271.

The scenario up above is in the absence of an interest rate - so while in theory we could do this deposit-loan-deposit for an unlimited amount of money... in reality interest rates stop that. The bank will still make loans and create money but with interest rates it will make sure loans can be repaid. Some will be denied for loans. The amount of money in the economy will therefore have a limit. A growing limit but a limit. And as long as this growing limit roughly corresponds with new economic activity, everything is fine.

And like I said - traditionally the way the Bank of Canada controls commercial banks and this money supply is through interest rates. The higher the interest rate, the more reluctant I am to borrow that $90. The more reluctant the bank is to lend me $90. Can I really pay them back? Can my business idea make enough money so I don't default on the loan? The same is true in reverse - the lower the rate, the more likely I am to want to borrow and go to the bank with my idea. The easier it is for business to borrow and maintain operations and pay people and keep the economy stable.

Now what drives a bank to loan money? Interest rates, ability to repay, economic conditions, income of the person or revenue of the business, etc...

So what happens during a recession or a shutdown like we're experiencing now? People are out of work and don't have an income, business revenue falls, economic conditions are bad, a lot of people might not be able to repay a loan if it is given to them.

The Bank of Canada sees that, understands the perspective of businesses, people and banks and decides to lower interest rates to make it cheaper to borrow money. This makes it cheaper for banks to borrow between each other and to borrow from the Bank of Canada itself if banks are unable to borrow between each other. It's a "safety net" for the banks and it encourages people and businesses to borrow money from commercial banks when they might be nervous to because of economic conditions.

Now quantitative easing is when the interest rate cuts just aren't enough and are not working. Things are so bad people/businesses don't want to borrow even at rock bottom rates, banks don't want to loan because they fear things are not going to work.

So the Bank of Canada will go in and buy government bonds, then commercial bonds and other debt instruments depending on how serious the situation gets. This frees the banks up to spend that money. So you have a $100 deposit, I have a $90 loan, the central bank buys my loan freeing up that $90 again for the bank to loan. So we would have your $100, my $90 and a third person with $90 now. So the supply is $280 in theory if the bank loans it out. If you push cash into the system then banks might be more willing to take a risk. Think about it in terms of millions of loans and deposits (your $100 and my $90). The QE is attempting to stop money supply going from $190 to $150. It's trying to keep it at $190 so that people keep borrowing, repaying, buying, selling and economic activity continues as normally as possible.

Now some critics say this is printing money and it will lead to hyperinflation... but this is a real attempt to stop deflation. If no loans are going out the door to create money and loans are only being repaid which is removing money... we're going to enter a deflationary spiral. And that's really bad from a real perspective. It means businesses can't access money, it means people can't access money. If this happens - businesses can't generate sales, businesses have to fire their employees, prices for items go down (deflation) to try to sell them and generate some revenue and this cycle just continues and continues.

It's also important to think about it in real terms as well. If we accept that there's a lot more money in the system with QE - fine, I agree. But that doesn't mean much to you or me when we go shopping if all this extra money is sitting at the commercial banks and they are not loaning any of it out.

Money being actively used is what drives prices. That's another problem we faced in 2008 and will likely face again now. Does it matter much what the Bank of Canada does if the commercial banks just sit on this QE money and don't do anything with it? A bank isn't about to buy groceries or pay rent or buy a car to drive. So yes the money exists but it's unlikely to cause inflation and drive up prices for you or me.

We'll have to see. This is the first time the Bank of Canada has really engaged in large scale QE. The US engaged it in in 2008, we didn't really do much because our banking system wasn't on the verge of collapse.

In terms of hyperinflation which is usually what you see when someone talks about "printing money":

The Bank of Canada is still independent. This isn't like Zimbabwe or Venezuela where the President goes to their central bank and tells them what to do. Justin Trudeau isn't about to phone the Bank of Canada, demand they authorize the Canadian Mint to print $100 trillion and then pay public servants with that money. That's hyperinflation. Quantitative Easing by an independent central bank looking at conditions in the economy and market... and trying to prop up an economy in trouble is not hyperinflation.

Sorry if it's not well organized. I just see "the Bank of Canada printing money" and I want to point out it's not that simple and it's not going to lead to the next word that I usually see after "printing money" which is "hyperinflation". The examples in my paragraph up above is what creates hyperinflation. Where the central bank has no independence and literally prints money for the government to pay people. The government of Canada is still borrowing money that it will repay and is not telling the Bank of Canada what to do.

I'll edit one more time because I realize I didn't directly answer the question:

In a hard recession like 1929, 2008 or now - the money supply, the active money supply is going to potentially start to shrink. Anywhere experiencing a recession will be in the same situation. It doesn't matter if the US Federal Reserve is doing the same thing we are, the European Central Bank, the UK central bank... if they're all experiencing the same thing and they all do the same thing. So in theory we would come out all "normal".

At this point we're starting to talk about global supply chains and foreign exchange. And in theory the Bank of Canada has some control over this as well because it can buy US dollars, it can buy Euros. And this can have some impact on exchange rates and make imported items cheaper. But we're sort of leaving the concept of money supply and inflation/deflation and moving into investors looking for safety and the place they usually find safety is in US Dollars, US treasury bills because of the size and diversity of the American economy.

So we could see some prices go up for items we import if our dollar stays low relative to say the USD. But the Bank of Canada may not necessarily see that as a bad thing given Canada is an export nation. It may see it as a case where the lower exchange rates position us well when we come out the other side and our stuff is cheaper for Americans and others to buy.

 

[thinkwild]

Has the government made public the data they used for modelling? It would be interesting to see what numbers they are using for their projections.

People dying with COVID-19 isn't an accurate portrayal of deaths caused by it. Again, no distinction is made.

There was an article somewhere about the underlying numbers are more than expected due to people dying at home. I wonder if the fear generated by these numbers are preventing people who would've gone to the hospital for other underlying issues and eventually succumbing to them at home or elsewhere. You would think if anyone had symptoms of Covid-19 they would be heading to the ER.

For sure I would have thought most of the Covid deaths are happening in the hospitals. I take your point that dying with, or because of, are two different things. But the idea that a large number of people are dying at home, then getting tested after death where it is attributed it to Covid when really they were asymptomatic for that and it was actually a heart attack that killed them, that fear that it is large enough to significantly throw the developing models out of whack seems relatively unfounded to me.

I don’t know if modelling data has been released. The way they talk about it leads to me believe that most of the modelling is being done by private interests and could be somewhat proprietary. The gov’t is apparently receiving many different models from many companies that use many different assumptions for the data that is still being developed within the models. Generally they are trying to plan for the middle ground which seems prudent given the virus is new and we don’t have all the numbers to accurately plug into the models yet.

So knowing what the ranges of modelling data the gov’t is using for planning might be interesting in general, the range of uncertainty might be eye opening.

But the exponential growth part is clear. The ability to overwhelm our health departments is also clear. The decision of when you will feel safe enough to go to a Sens game again is less clear. I imagine it will be helped when we have enough testing for more precise models and thus quickly containing the next waves of outbreaks. That and good therapeutics for treating it.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

^^^^^ Outstanding post @Daxi. Very educational.

 

[thinkwild]

^^^^^ Outstanding post @Daxi. Very educational.

I guess it will require an update of the famous rap battle

 

[The Lewler]

The death numbers are maybe slightly under reported .

the overall case / infection rate is definitely underreported and possibly exponentially so.

That denominator can make all the difference in public policy going forward which is why someone better start talking about random sample antibody testing soon to get a real idea of how many people have had this .

 

[thinkwild]

The death numbers are maybe slightly under reported .

the overall case / infection rate is definitely underreported and possibly exponentially so.

That denominator can make all the difference in public policy going forward which is why someone better start talking about random sample antibody testing soon to get a real idea of how many people have had this .

One of the Dr.'s on tv was hypothesizing that it may only be 1 to 5 percent of the population that have been infected making an early release relying on herd immunity not recommended. But i agree, getting those samples done will be a good start.

It sounds like they do have a quick device now that can tell if you have the antibodies. But if that only turns out to be 5% of the population right now, that will make for difficult policy

 

[Sens]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ba...erest-for-mortgage-payment-deferral-1.5529399

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

You raise a valid example but say a patient with multiple pre-mordibities (which is the vast majority of people ~98 percent in Italy and I am pretty sure globally) is asymptomatic, passes away but tested positive for COVID-19, the cause of death on their death certificate is COVID-19. Asymptomatic people will probably not go to the ER but will go due to their pre existing conditions that cause severe complications and die because of it.
...

I think my comment is the same as @thinkwild but I'll make it anyway... I think what you are describing in this paragraph is completely different than what that report is talking about.

You are suggesting that someone dies of an existing condition - say a heart attack or stroke -- are taken to the hospital for that condition, exhibit no signs of COVID-19, after they die a COVID-19 test is done and based on the test being positive their death is counted as caused by COVID-19 related? IE, they're never treated or considered COVID-19 patients until after their death?

I mean, Section 4 of the report you linked has a breakdown of the different types of COVID-19 symptoms, and Section 5 has this statement: "Acute Respiratory Distress syndrome was observed in the majority of patients (96.4% of cases)," So aren't all the cases in that report are completely orthogonal to the situation you describe?

Could be I am misunderstanding what you mean in this paragraph.

 

[JD1]

One of the Dr.'s on tv was hypothesizing that it may only be 1 to 5 percent of the population that have been infected making an early release relying on herd immunity not recommended. But i agree, getting those samples done will be a good start.

It sounds like they do have a quick device now that can tell if you have the antibodies. But if that only turns out to be 5% of the population right now, that will make for difficult policy

So i believe it is Dr. Tam that is heading up Canada's response on this. A line i saw in a paper today was "dr. Tam's record on being wrong is spotless"

I don't throw that out to criticize, but it kind of underscores that we won't know what we are dealing with with this thing until it's dealt with. When it's done we'll be able to look back, but right now i don't think anyone has a predictive handle on it.

 

[thinkwild]

So i believe it is Dr. Tam that is heading up Canada's response on this. A line i saw in a paper today was "dr. Tam's record on being wrong is spotless"

I don't throw that out to criticize, but it kind of underscores that we won't know what we are dealing with with this thing until it's dealt with. When it's done we'll be able to look back, but right now i don't think anyone has a predictive handle on it.

Well yeah I agree, the predictiveness of the models are still struggling with a lot of uncertainty. It’s a new virus. We don’t have the data on it yet. They are getting info fast. I take that for granted, that the model is just a black box with a bunch of knobs that we are still adjusting trying to find the right combo allowing us to understand and predict it.

I hadn’t really been following Dr Tam in particular but all of Canada’s Public Health officials I thought have done well, maybe enough to even increase that appeal as a career path.

Nothing springs to mind for me of what warrants criticism, especially such broad based swat, other than the obvious -we were all unprepared.

There’s the mask advice that flopped a bit, but still they are saying the same thing that it doesn’t protect you. It just minimizes your moist talk spraying everyone else. So masks, 6 ft distance, no handshakes. Chaperones delight.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Well yeah I agree, the predictiveness of the models are still struggling with a lot of uncertainty. It’s a new virus. We don’t have the data on it yet. They are getting info fast. I take that for granted, that the model is just a black box with a bunch of knobs that we are still adjusting trying to find the right combo allowing us to understand and predict it.

I hadn’t really been following Dr Tam in particular but all of Canada’s Public Health officials I thought have done well, maybe enough to even increase that appeal as a career path.

Nothing springs to mind for me of what warrants criticism, especially such broad based swat, other than the obvious -we were all unprepared.

There’s the mask advice that flopped a bit, but still they are saying the same thing that it doesn’t protect you. It just minimizes your moist talk spraying everyone else. So masks, 6 ft distance, no handshakes. Chaperones delight.

Those N-95 masks should offer some protection against droplets from others. I am not an expert on the subject but it just makes sense they would.
I think the combination of those N-95 masks and those Bauer shields is there to protect health workers is it not?

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I think my comment is the same as @thinkwild but I'll make it anyway... I think what you are describing in this paragraph is completely different than what that report is talking about.

You are suggesting that someone dies of an existing condition - say a heart attack or stroke -- are taken to the hospital for that condition, exhibit no signs of COVID-19, after they die a COVID-19 test is done and based on the test being positive their death is counted as caused by COVID-19 related? IE, they're never treated or considered COVID-19 patients until after their death?

I mean, Section 4 of the report you linked has a breakdown of the different types of COVID-19 symptoms, and Section 5 has this statement: "Acute Respiratory Distress syndrome was observed in the majority of patients (96.4% of cases)," So aren't all the cases in that report are completely orthogonal to the situation you describe?

Could be I am misunderstanding what you mean in this paragraph.

Section 5 mentions ARDS but it never mentioned the cause.

For the record Italy probably has one of if not the worst air quality in all of Europe which can contribute to pre existing respitory issues or cause it in other cases.

Apparently there could have been false positive test results due to using universal testing kits which could have fudged the numbers.

 

[Stylizer1]

Ahh fractual banking where interest ,gives worth to a piece of paper....This is the real virus

Absolutely.

 

[thinkwild]

Those N-95 masks should offer some protection against droplets from others. I am not an expert on the subject but it just makes sense they would.
I think the combination of those N-95 masks and those Bauer shields is there to protect health workers is it not?

Even though they have the N-95 masks they are still wearing the face shields? I guess thats for the eyes as well.

They are supposed to be really good masks although they were saying it would be hard to expend energy while wearing one which is why its not as good for walking around or running to the bus.

The other masks are making health professionals nervous. I guess they catch some but not all droplets. But for us the primary purpose appears to be to prevent major spray, not give us good protection that would allow us to get out of the 6 ft rule as i understand it.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Section 5 mentions ARDS but it never mentioned the cause.

For the record Italy probably has one of if not the worst air quality in all of Europe which can contribute to pre existing respitory issues or cause it in other cases.

Apparently there could have been false positive test results due to using universal testing kits as well which could have fudged the numbers.

Yes but your post was about people who were asymptomatic.... which is definitely not how I would characterize someone with ARDS.

So I still don't understand your post about asymptomatic people dying of other causes but then being classified as COVID-19 deaths.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Yes but your post was about people who were asymptomatic.... which is definitely not how I would characterize someone with ARDS.

So I still don't understand your post about asymptomatic people dying of other causes but then being classified as COVID-19 deaths.

Asymptomatic when it comes to COVID-19.

 

[Knave]

Anyone else think maybe it's time we re-think PPE entirely for highly infectious diseases with no known vaccine or immunity?

It's pretty clear the PPE we have right now is far from perfect if nearly 20% of our cases are medical professionals. Should we not move to a complete body-suit of some kind or have the patient in a body suit and have the patient contained when brought in? Have some decontamination showers set up in the hospital if its the staff who will wear body suits? I understand the difficulty of working in one for hours on end but they have to put on all this stuff anyways... just as individual pieces.

I remember a news piece in the BBC about what it's like in an Italian hospital and it was like they were trying to create a full suit experience but with goggles, a mask, gloves and a body suit with holes for the face, hands and shoes... and it's just so easy to see how they could become infected taking it all off even when taking care. There has to be a better way that provides better security, is more breathable and that lessens chance of infection when removing.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Even though they have the N-95 masks they are still wearing the face shields? I guess thats for the eyes as well.

They are supposed to be really good masks although they were saying it would be hard to expend energy while wearing one which is why its not as good for walking around or running to the bus.

The other masks are making health professionals nervous. I guess they catch some but not all droplets. But for us the primary purpose appears to be to prevent major spray, not give us good protection that would allow us to get out of the 6 ft rule as i understand it.
Even though they have the N-95 masks they are still wearing the face shields? I guess thats for the eyes.

They are supposed to be really good masks although they were saying it would be hard to expend energy while wearing one which is why its not as good for walking around or running to the bus.

The other masks are not really good enough for health professionals but for us the primary purpose appears to be to prevent spray, not give us good protection that would allow us to get out of the 6 ft rule as i understand it.

That's my guess on the shields .. could also make a mask last longer I suppose. I think the new guidance from CDC is to wear a mask of some sort. Better quality(N-95) offers more protection but those are probably hard to get a hold of in any volume.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Asymptomatic when it comes to COVID-19.

ARDS isn't a COVID-19 symptom? I thought it was. Or maybe more accurately it's a condition that is one of the outcomes of COVID-19. So if you have ARDS symptoms, you have COVID-19 symptoms.