GDT: NHL Draft R1 (6/28): 6pm CT (ESPN), R2-7 (6/29): 10am CT (NHLN)

[57special]

Overall impression of the draft now that I've had some time to think and not make kneejerk reactions.

21oa Stramel. I still think he was a 10-20 pick reach. I don't hate it, but I don't love it either. He has NHL center size, and showed skill prior to going to UW.

53oa Kumpulainen. I'm interested to see what he is. He has size and is young for the draft class, so this could be a gem of a pick.

64oa Heidt. I'm going to walk back my initial response where I didn't like the pick. I was still in the this was a high pick, not 60s pick. The 3rd round is where I want the boom or bust prospect to be taken, so I'm okay with it.

The late round picks are mostly whatever to me. I'm still a little confused by taking an overager LD when they already have so many LD prospects the same age.

Virtually every ranking service had Heidt in the 1st round, or very early in the second.
Ranked #26 by CONSOLIDATED RANKING
Ranked #27 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #21 by FCHOCKEY
Ranked #30 by FLOHOCKEY/CHRIS PETERS
Ranked #22 by DAILY FACEOFF
Ranked #21 by THE HOCKEY NEWS
Ranked #32 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #29 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #37 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #21 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #26 by SPORTSNET
Ranked #36 by HPR/SHANE MALLOY
Ranked #34 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #17 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #21 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #17 by SMAHT SCOUTING


He had 97 points in his draft year, which was behind only Bedard, a generational prospect, and Benson(barely), who is being compared to Marner. He is at least 1 1/2-2 " taller than Rossi, and unlike him, looks like he has some physical maturing to do. Can easily see him being 5'11", 195 in 2-3 years. Not big, but big enough. I don't foresee the "little man" problems with him that we are seeing with Rossi.

Heidt was a steal at #64. Getting him there made me much easier with choosing Stramel at #21. In my head, i just flip flopped them. One big, gritty guy lacking in skill, one smaller, skilled guy lacking in strength, though some have described him as being a pest. Think a slightly bigger, and significantly more skilled, Connor Dewar. I hesitate on naming a floor for him, but i definitely see top 6 upside.

 

[Spurgeon]

I think it all depends how big the difference was between Stramel and whoever was highest on their list.

If Stramel was ranked at #40 on their internal list and someone else was sub-20, that's bad. If the difference was only 2 spots and Stramel was ranked at around #21, then it's perfectly fine.

Agree with this, but the impression I got from that article is that it wasn’t just a few spots.

Narrowing the focus on drafting solely one player type (large centers) is almost going to always end in reaching for a player.

It feels like this team needs high-end forward prospects more than just centers. Perreault was a RW that fit that mold. Time will tell how this all shakes out.

 

[57special]

That's where falling into the Heidt pick(average sized, very skilled) evens out the reach for for Stramel. I was raging till then.

I can see a future where Stramel rediscovers his game, or just ends up being a tough, fast, 15/25 power forward. Sort of like what Greenway was supposed to be. If he can be a #2/3 centering Heidt...best of both worlds.

I'd be a hypocrite if i criticized them for prioritizing taking C's over other positions. I get that Perreault had a freakish year, stats wise, but we are pretty strong on the wings, and Perreault had some questions about his size, speed, and how well he will transition to higher levels of play. It's not like we are the only team to feel that way.

If you want a high stat guy then you've got him in Heidt. He led the WHL in assists, i his draft year. That's eye opening.

 

[thestonedkoala]

That's a wrap for me. I'm headed home in a few hours. Had fun. Lot about 10 pounds in water weight.

 

[TaLoN]

That's where falling into the Heidt pick(average sized, very skilled) evens out the reach for for Stramel. I was raging till then.

I can see a future where Stramel rediscovers his game, or just ends up being a tough, fast, 15/25 power forward. Sort of like what Greenway was supposed to be. If he can be a #2/3 centering Heidt...best of both worlds.

I'd be a hypocrite if i criticized them for prioritizing taking C's over other positions. I get that Perreault had a freakish year, stats wise, but we are pretty strong on the wings, and Perreault had some questions about his size, speed, and how well he will transition to higher levels of play. It's not like we are the only team to feel that way.

If you want a high stat guy then you've got him in Heidt. He led the WHL in assists, i his draft year. That's eye opening.

Imagine ending up with both Perreault and Heidt, we'd all be ecstatic!

 

[57special]

Imagine ending up with both Perreault and Heidt, we'd all be ecstatic!

I dunno, I didn't really have a handle on Perreault's game. Unlike him, Heidt is a C, and at least has the potential to be a C going forward.

 

[AKL]

Really don’t like these comments from Russo’s Athletic Article:

This is the point I was trying to get across. Everyone wants BPA, which usually I agree with, but when you're as devoid of centers as we are, you can't keep taking wingers just because they may be BPA. We've gone real light on centers the last two years, and the only two before that are 5'9. You can't have a prospect pool with 37 wingers, 29 defensemen, and 3 centers. It just doesn't work. Had we taken some more centers the last couple years instead of focusing exclusively on BPA, this draft might have gone different.

 

[AKL]

Imagine ending up with both Perreault and Heidt, we'd all be ecstatic!

I could give or take Perreault

That's because CHL players get paid, albeit a pretty small amount. In the eyes of the NCAA, that makes them professionals.

I wonder if this changes at all moving forward now that NIL is a thing

 

[Wabit]

Really don’t like these comments from Russo’s Athletic Article:

I think draft strategy needs to change draft to draft, sometimes even pick to pick. Team needs do needs (or future roster construction) to be addressed at some point.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

That's because CHL players get paid, albeit a pretty small amount. In the eyes of the NCAA, that makes them professionals.

I thought the chl was the one preventing it not ncaa which oddly enough they also get paid.

Really don’t like these comments from Russo’s Athletic Article:

These comments don’t both me. It was a big need and I’m glad they focused it.

 

[Spurgeon]

I think draft strategy needs to change draft to draft, sometimes even pick to pick. Team needs do needs (or future roster construction) to be addressed at some point.

I’d agree with this if we were picking 11th and decided to draft someone like Moore instead of Benson.

I haven’t looked at anything to support this, but I have to imagine that you have a significantly better chance at drafting a Top 6 winger over a Top 6 center when drafting in the 20-30 range. As you get further away from the top of the draft, you have a better chance of drafting an impact player by simply taking the BPA.

 

[Wabit]

Virtually every ranking service had Heidt in the 1st round, or very early in the second.
Ranked #26 by CONSOLIDATED RANKING
Ranked #27 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #21 by FCHOCKEY
Ranked #30 by FLOHOCKEY/CHRIS PETERS
Ranked #22 by DAILY FACEOFF
Ranked #21 by THE HOCKEY NEWS
Ranked #32 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #29 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #37 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #21 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #26 by SPORTSNET
Ranked #36 by HPR/SHANE MALLOY
Ranked #34 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #17 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #21 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #17 by SMAHT SCOUTING


He had 97 points in his draft year, which was behind only Bedard, a generational prospect, and Benson(barely), who is being compared to Marner. He is at least 1 1/2-2 " taller than Rossi, and unlike him, looks like he has some physical maturing to do. Can easily see him being 5'11", 195 in 2-3 years. Not big, but big enough. I don't foresee the "little man" problems with him that we are seeing with Rossi.

Heidt was a steal at #64. Getting him there made me much easier with choosing Stramel at #21. In my head, i just flip flopped them. One big, gritty guy lacking in skill, one smaller, skilled guy lacking in strength, though some have described him as being a pest. Think a slightly bigger, and significantly more skilled, Connor Dewar. I hesitate on naming a floor for him, but i definitely see top 6 upside.

I don't care much about the consensus rankings. They are from people with no actual skin in the game for the players turning into anything. There isn't any repercussions for them being wrong about a player. I also think there is a lot of group think, stats watching, and mostly just watching highlight reels.

CHL points are nice to see, but relatively meaningless to me after getting past the 1.0 PPG mark. It's just not an overall stat that means much to me.

 

[57special]

I don't care much about the consensus rankings. They are from people with no actual skin in the game for the players turning into anything. There isn't any repercussions for them being wrong about a player. I also think there is a lot of group think, stats watching, and mostly just watching highlight reels.

CHL points are nice to see, but relatively meaningless to me after getting past the 1.0 PPG mark. It's just not an overall stat that means much to me.

Some of those are scouting services, and Mackenzie's list is literally made up from NHL scouts opinions, the same guys that pick the players. I mean, whose opinion are you going to trust, the guy behind the counter at Subway?

Who fixes your plumbing, your dentist?

It's one thing to be discerning about who and what you listen to, but if you simply ignore everyone's opinion, especially the ones that come from people who's job it is to watch games, then i have to wonder where you do get your info.

 

[Spurgeon]

I thought the chl was the one preventing it not ncaa which oddly enough they also get paid.

These comments don’t both me. It was a big need and I’m glad they focused it.

They need wingers too though. I’d argue that our Top 2 C prospects are better than our Top 2 W prospects.

Khusnutdinov + Rossi > Yurov + Ohgren.

We’ve got Boldy & Ek that fit the mold of big Top 6 players. While it’s not a problem to have more of those types of players, I just don’t think Stramel is going to be one of them. I’d love to be wrong though.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

They need wingers too though. I’d argue that our Top 2 C prospects are better than our Top 2 W prospects.

Khusnutdinov + Rossi > Yurov + Ohgren.

We’ve got Boldy & Ek that fit the mold of big Top 6 players. While it’s not a problem to have more of those types of players, I just don’t think Stramel is going to be one of them. I’d love to be wrong though.

When both Rossi and Khusnutdinov might be wings that can easily change. The other big thing is how often top six wings get traded and moved which is far less than centers so I’d be fine being more thin at that position.

I do think Yurov when given more playing time will be our top prospect.

 

[Wabit]

I’d agree with this if we were picking 11th and decided to draft someone like Moore instead of Benson.

I haven’t looked at anything to support this, but I have to imagine that you have a significantly better chance at drafting a Top 6 winger over a Top 6 center when drafting in the 20-30 range. As you get further away from the top of the draft, you have a better chance of drafting an impact player by simply taking the BPA.

I don't think so, it looks pretty even with a glance. It also changes by draft class.

20-30 picks:
2018 and later: too soon to tell.
2017: Thomas, Chytil
2016: Thompson, Steel
2015: JEE, Boeser, Konecny
2014: Schmaltz, Pasta, Kempe, McCann
2013: Mantha, Burkaovsky, Hartman
2012: bad draft year
2011: Danault, Rakell
2010 : Hayes, Kuznetov, Nelson, and Coyle
2009: MarJo and Palmieri
2008: Eberle
2007: Patches, Perron, and Backlund
2006: N. Foligno, Giroux

I don't consider some of the players here as top-6 FWDs, just the best of the draft class per year.

 

[Wabit]

Some of those are scouting services, and Mackenzie's list is literally made up from NHL scouts opinions, the same guys that pick the players. I mean, whose opinion are you going to trust, the guy behind the counter at Subway?

Who fixes your plumbing, your dentist?

It's one thing to be discerning about who and what you listen to, but if you simply ignore everyone's opinion, especially the ones that come from people who's job it is to watch games, then i have to wonder where you do get your info.

Team scouts have no reason to tell the truth and every reason not to.

All of these scouting places put no little to no emphasis on size. For me the CHL is an awful league for judging prospects because it's mostly small players without a lot of speed.

I make my own decisions. There is enough info, tape, etc. to form an opinion without someone else telling me what I should think. It's not like this is a new thing and I'm just trying to be an asshat. My rankings are usually vastly different than everyone else on here when there are lists made.

The rankings made me look at Heidt because he a center in the Wild's 1st range. I didn't like his size, speed, or overall game to want him as a top-45 pick. He's fine as a 3rd round (I'm still in the 30 picks per round mindset) boom or bust, but not someone I'd count on making the NHL roster.

 

[saywut]

Really don’t like these comments from Russo’s Athletic Article:

Yeah, tough to interpret how much it really influenced the picks at the end. I believe Stramel was top-20 on the Wild board, and that there may have been a couple other guys in the top-20 available. Having Stramel top-20 is something I disagree with(never actually counted it out, probably mid-late 40s with Stramel for me), but I do feel in the early 20s is where it got tough to distinguish the next group of players. As I mentioned elsewhere I had Ritchie, Perrault and Stenberg as the 3 best remaining at 21, after those 3 there wouldn't have been anyone I'd have felt great about using a 1st on, the next 30 or so were very similar for me, and Stramel's in that group. Ultimately I'll judge him against Ritchie, that was my guy and I do believe he'll be the better player, and should've checked any boxes that Guerin mandated for use of that pick. I had 3+ guys a tier above Ohgren/Haight last year among top-50 picks too, though neither bug me as much as this one.

 

[Wabit]

Yeah, tough to interpret how much it really influenced the picks at the end. I believe Stramel was top-20 on the Wild board, and that there may have been a couple other guys in the top-20 available. Having Stramel top-20 is something I disagree with(never actually counted it out, probably mid-late 40s with Stramel for me), but I do feel in the early 20s is where it got tough to distinguish the next group of players. As I mentioned elsewhere I had Ritchie, Perrault and Stenberg as the 3 best remaining at 21, after those 3 there wouldn't have been anyone I'd have felt great about using a 1st on, the next 30 or so were very similar for me, and Stramel's in that group. Ultimately I'll judge him against Ritchie, that was my guy and I do believe he'll be the better player, and should've checked any boxes that Guerin mandated for use of that pick. I had 3+ guys a tier above Ohgren/Haight last year among top-50 picks too, though neither bug me as much as this one.

Ritchie was my guy too. Just speculation, but I wonder if they saw something in his medical records that pushed him behind Stramel?

 

[Minnewildsota]

Ritchie was my guy too. Just speculation, but I wonder if they saw something in his medical records that pushed him behind Stramel?

Well, rumor is they tried to trade up but had no takers.
Also, rumor is Philly and NYR were going to take Stramel, thus we didn't trade down.

Knowing that information, it makes sense how the draft played out for us as it did.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Virtually every ranking service had Heidt in the 1st round, or very early in the second.
Ranked #26 by CONSOLIDATED RANKING
Ranked #27 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #21 by FCHOCKEY
Ranked #30 by FLOHOCKEY/CHRIS PETERS
Ranked #22 by DAILY FACEOFF
Ranked #21 by THE HOCKEY NEWS
Ranked #32 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #29 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #37 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #21 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #26 by SPORTSNET
Ranked #36 by HPR/SHANE MALLOY
Ranked #34 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #17 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #21 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #17 by SMAHT SCOUTING


He had 97 points in his draft year, which was behind only Bedard, a generational prospect, and Benson(barely), who is being compared to Marner. He is at least 1 1/2-2 " taller than Rossi, and unlike him, looks like he has some physical maturing to do. Can easily see him being 5'11", 195 in 2-3 years. Not big, but big enough. I don't foresee the "little man" problems with him that we are seeing with Rossi.

Heidt was a steal at #64. Getting him there made me much easier with choosing Stramel at #21. In my head, i just flip flopped them. One big, gritty guy lacking in skill, one smaller, skilled guy lacking in strength, though some have described him as being a pest. Think a slightly bigger, and significantly more skilled, Connor Dewar. I hesitate on naming a floor for him, but i definitely see top 6 upside.

This just shows that most ranking sites/people have zero clue.

In the major lists, here is where Stramel/Heidt went:

McKenzie:
Heidt #32
Stramel #34

Pronman:
Stramel #23
Heidt N/A (not in his 1st round prediction)

Pronman 7 round prediction (written a week prior to above ranking):
Stramel #29
Heidt #49

Wheeler:
Stramel #25
Heidt #43

 

[Spurgeon]

I don't think so, it looks pretty even with a glance. It also changes by draft class.

20-30 picks:
2018 and later: too soon to tell.
2017: Thomas, Chytil
2016: Thompson, Steel
2015: JEE, Boeser, Konecny
2014: Schmaltz, Pasta, Kempe, McCann
2013: Mantha, Burkaovsky, Hartman
2012: bad draft year
2011: Danault, Rakell
2010 : Hayes, Kuznetov, Nelson, and Coyle
2009: MarJo and Palmieri
2008: Eberle
2007: Patches, Perron, and Backlund
2006: N. Foligno, Giroux

I don't consider some of the players here as top-6 FWDs, just the best of the draft class per year.

Looking at all 1st and 2nd round picks with higher than 0.7 P/G (last season):

Higher than 0.6 P/G (last season):

Obviously there will be more wingers than centers just because of positional scarcity, but does seem like as you get further away from those Top 20 picks, you're more likely to hit on a winger.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Imagine ending up with both Perreault and Heidt, we'd all be ecstatic!

Imagine having Perreault and Pitre would we be as happy?

 

[Wabit]

Looking at all 1st and 2nd round picks with higher than 0.7 P/G (last season):


View attachment 724403

Higher than 0.6 P/G (last season):

View attachment 724419

Obviously there will be more wingers than centers just because of positional scarcity, but does seem like as you get further away from those Top 20 picks, you're more likely to hit on a winger.

My main takeaway from this chart is in the 20s there are maybe 2 (on average) 0.8p/g FWDs per draft picked in the 20s. It falls in line with my supposition that you're drafting for a 3rd liner (not top-6) in the 20s.

I'm curious of the numbers if you went ~0.8 p/g for the 1-10 picks. As the bottom chart stands the top 49 picks account for 57 centers (64 would be 2 per team). I think it starts to become a numbers game of spots for centers to get the PP time to add on the extra points to get to the .8 p/g.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Made it back safely. Fun trip