Prospect Info: NHL 2017 Entry Draft: Year of the Homegrown Talent

[Grind]

The next question is how do you determine who the top 30 Dmen in the league are?

There in lies the rub.

Ideally you use the most predictive metrics for improving team success while accounting for context.

They change so quickly now I wouldn't know what's best but I'd through riut some as of yet MN ot nailed down combination of 5v5 point production (primary only maybe?) , 5v5 Shot differentials, and special teams effectiveness (same as the above but maybe weighted differently in overall value, ie PP point production being more valuable then PP shot differentials, but short-handed **** differentials being more valuable then short handed point production)

It's for greater minds then mine I'm afraid.

 

[Daximus]

You would want the 30 best in their actual WAR (not a model but true WAR).

The issue though is you will never have a perfect market.

Whether using stats, eyetest, or mix, you will never be able to perfectly determine who the 30 best are. Goal is just get closest to perfect as possible.

I think you could pin down the to 5 or so pretty easily maybe not in a true 1 to 5 ranking but just the general top 5ish guys. After that it gets muddier and muddier the further you go.

 

[Daximus]

Sounds like Liljegren has come down with Mono. It's going to be really interesting to see how that may affect his progression, play and rankings as he is likely going to miss a lot of time.
Mono dropped White and Barzal down the rankings when they missed time much to the joy of the Sens and Isles. Could it have the same effect on Liljegren? Or is he to good to drop? Are teams going to put less stock into missing time due to being sick?

Edit:
http://www.draftbuzzhockey.com/2017-nhl-draft-initial-ranking

Draft Buzz already has Liljegren dropping from #2 to #5. Looks like they are pretty high on Kostin and Necas as well. Lots of Czech prospects generating buzz after their Hlinka win.

 

[garret9]

The amount that one tournament makes things shift makes me sick...

 

[Daximus]

Daximus

The amount that one tournament makes things shift makes me sick...

Hlinka and WJCs make scouts drool.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Why is watching the best players play against the best players not relevant? It has to be part of the equation does it not?

 

[garret9]

Why is watching the best players play against the best players not relevant? It has to be part of the equation does it not?

Overvalued != not relevant.

The former is the position I, and I believe Daximus, are taking.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Overvalued != not relevant.

The former is the position I, and I believe Daximus, are taking.

One could argue perhaps some undervalue it though.

(I don't have an opinion on it TBH)

 

[garret9]

One could argue perhaps some undervalue it though.

(I don't have an opinion on it TBH)

Some can do anything... the trend though is it is overvalued and is quite easy to see that when you look at the data and trends.

 

[Daximus]

Fourand4

Yeah Button along with a few of these other scouting services put way to much stock into it. It's why I thought Juolevi was so overvalued last year. He had a really good WJCs but the rest of his season both before and after was really underwhelming for a top 5 D pick in the OHL on likely the most stacked team at the Junior level in the world.
I put more stock into regular season league play. These guys aren't going to be playing best on best tournaments their whole lives. I put more stock into how well they play with and against less skilled players as they will likely be doing so at the NHL level. Not always but more frequently. Best on best is definitely part of the bigger picture though.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Button & other "list makers" are not NHL teams. Every team would have different biases so some likely overvalue more than others. We never get to see a true team list. How would we know for sure?

 

[garret9]

Button & other "list makers" are not NHL teams. Every team would have different biases so some likely overvalue more than others. We never get to see a true team list. How would we know for sure?

For one: they are a pretty tight knit community with a lot of the same wavelength in thinking, even when their opinion on individual players differ.

Then there are also things like McKenzie's lists, which are actual surveys of NHL ops.

And finally: there is the draft itself which shows how teams tend to think.

 

[garret9]

Speaking of McKenzie, his list is up. I'm out and on my phone so someone will have to link for me.

 

[nobody important]

Speaking of McKenzie, his list is up. I'm out and on my phone so someone will have to link for me.

http://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-s-pre-season-ranking-the-nolan-patrick-draft-1.567410

 

[ps241]

The amount that one tournament makes things shift makes me sick...

Do you think it makes things shift this much with organizations too or just publications and prospect information service providers?

 

[Rheged]

I thought no Yamamoto was weird but last year there was no DeBrinicat in the pre-season top-15 so I guess it's kinda to be expected.

 

[Aavco Cup]

For one: they are a pretty tight knit community with a lot of the same wavelength in thinking, even when their opinion on individual players differ.

Then there are also things like McKenzie's lists, which are actual surveys of NHL ops.

And finally: there is the draft itself which shows how teams tend to think.

That doesn't tell us which teams value more than others. It's just a concensus list. Everybody here also has their own biases including you and Daximus. I agree the scouting world is a small one and they talk to each other so they influence each other. How much different one team is from another is hard to say because we never get to see all teams top 30 lists

 

[garret9]

Do you think it makes things shift this much with organizations too or just publications and prospect information service providers?

I'd say latter more than the former but it still happens.

 

[Daximus]

Was at the BWK and MJW game tonight. Saw Patrick and Mattheos playing together. They are going to put up a lot of points this year. Especially when Provorov and Clague return. Mattheos should climb the rankings. He looks improved this year. Dynamic skating, very good shot, crisp passes, high IQ.
Patrick is a lock for #1. Mattheos and him have excellent chemistry.

 

[Coach G]

Was at the BWK and MJW game tonight. Saw Patrick and Mattheos playing together. They are going to put up a lot of points this year. Especially when Provorov and Clague return. Mattheos should climb the rankings. He looks improved this year. Dynamic skating, very good shot, crisp passes, high IQ.
Patrick is a lock for #1. Mattheos and him have excellent chemistry.

I admit I'm not really following the Flyers' D situation, but I had the idea that Provorov would almost certainly stick there, no?

 

[Daximus]

Daximus

I admit I'm not really following the Flyers' D situation, but I had the idea that Provorov would almost certainly stick there, no?

It all depends. They have a lot of D prospects and I don't think they will rush Provorov. If he doesn't have a really solid camp they will probably send him back. Most have him pencilled in already but I wouldn't be to sure yet.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Rasmussen scored 4 goals last night. He became my favorite player to watch at the U18 camp last april. Will have my eye on him all year.

 

[Daximus]

My October Top 31. Be aware these will change drastically each month. I'm not one of those guys that barely changes. I change based on the play I'm seeing. So some guys will drop heavily, while others will rise greatly. I remain unchanged on my top 5 for now though. The rest is vastly different.

1. Nolan Patrick – RC/RW – 6'3 – 194 - Brandon, WHL
2. Max Comtois – LW/LC – 6'1 – 192 - Victoriaville, QMJHL
3. Tim Liljegren – RD – 6'0 – 190 - Rogle, SHL
4. Gabe Vilardi – RC – 6'2 – 185 - Windsor, OHL
5. Kailer Yamamoto – RC/LW – 5'9 – 159 - Spokane, WHL
6. Cal Foote – RD – 6'3 – 195 - Kelowna, WHL
7. Matt Strome – LW – 6'3 – 190 - Hamilton, OHL
8. Mike Rasmussen – LC – 6'5 – 203 - Tri-City, WHL
9. Urho Vaakanainen – LD – 6'1 – 187 - JYP, Liiga
10. Juuso Valimaki – LD – 6'2 – 201 - Tri-City, WHL
11. Nico Hischier – LC – 6'0 – 172 - Halifax, QMJHL
12. Eeli Tolvanen – LW – 5'10 - 172 - Sioux City, USHL
13. Stelio Mattheos – RC – 6'1 – 194 - Brandon, WHL
14. Adam Ruzicka – LC – 6'4 – 209 – Sarnia, OHL
15. Nick Hague – LD – 6'6 – 207 - Mississauga, OHL
16. Martin Necas - RC - 6'0 - 168 - Brno, Czech
17. Erik Brannstrom – LD – 5'10 – 172 - HV71, SHL
18. Elias Petterson - LC - 6'1 - 161 - Timrå, SHL
19. Nick Suzuki – RC - 5'10 - 183 - Owen Sound, OHL
20. Ivan Lodnia – RW – 5'10 – 179 - Eerie, OHL
21. Scott Reedy – RC – 6'1 – 187 - USNT, USDP
22. Antoine Morand – LC – 5'9 – 170 - Acadie-Bathurst, QMJHL
23. Kristian Vesalainen РW Р6'3 Р203 - Fr̦lunda, SHL
24. Casey Mittelstadt – LC/LW – 5'11 – 190 - Green Bay, USHL
25. Owen Tippet – RW – 6'1 – 181 - Mississauga, OHL
26. Artyom Minulin - RD - 6'2 - 198 - Swift Current, WHL
27. Sam Bucek - LW - 6'3 - 192 - Shawinigan, OHL
28. Miro Heiskanen - LD - 5'10 - 154 - HIFK, Liiga
29. Shane Bowers – LC – 6'0 – 170 – Waterloo, USHL
30. Jake Oettinger - LG - 6'4 - 205 - USNT, USDP
31. Jakub Lacka – LW – 5'10 – 174 – Trinec, Czech

 

[Hammer Slammer]

I don't mind your list but I wouldn't rate Matt Strome that high yet. If he improves his skating, maybe. But his skating is horrible right now.

 

[Daximus]

Daximus

I don't mind your list but I wouldn't rate Matt Strome that high yet. If he improves his skating, maybe. But his skating is horrible right now.

He's always in the right place though. He has great positioning and IQ. I'm a firm believer that you can't improve on IQ as much as skating. You can be a blazing fast skater but if you have no clue where to be your pretty useless. Strome ike his brother doesn't have the best skating but they make up for it in IQ IMO.