Value of: Morgan Rielly's next contract

[MMC]

What is he expected to get next offseason? 8 million range? More or less than Dougie Hamilton/Torey Krug?

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[HockeyVirus]

I honestly think he's pretty fair around 6M. I wouldn't give him 8M.

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

If you are going to pay Morgan Rielly 8 million you are better off paying it to Seth Jones. He is worth about the same a Provorov if not less. If you pay more then better to deal him and find another option. He might not be Toronto's number 1 Dman as it is.

 

[Perennial]

7 x 7 seems about right given he's a few years younger than Krug...

I expect Hamilton will get 8+

 

[I am Canadian]

Who even knows what the value of these contracts are after the flat cap.

7M x 5 is my guess.

Leafs may not be in a hurry to pay that contract

 

[voxel]

If Krug and Faulk are making $6.5M then Reilly is definitely getting $7+M. There are many teams willing to sign him to that number. I bet he get $8M/yr though.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

He'll likely get somewhere in the 7 to 8 million range (a year), but I think his actual worth is a lot closer to 6

 

[McVespa99]

Not sure how much it will be but Im confident it will be an overpay.

 

[grapes55]

Pretty comparable to Krug's deal I'd say, maybe a bit more since he's been the number 1 guy for a number of years. Definitely less than Doughty/Pietro etc

 

[MattySnipes]

He's an average ofd. Great skater and plays against tough competition, no doubt. He makes too many costly mistakes in DZ. You can blame his teammates a bit, but this has been happening for a few years now.

Goals have gone away. Picks up chintsy secondary assists where he makes a 1 or 2 foot pass to Matthews, Marner, Nylander, JT. No creativity, can't get shots through, doesn't know when to pass to his shooters. It goes on and on. Maybe he's just really dumb?

He had a lot of promise but I think over the years he has regressed. Imo, he's not a #1 on Leafs.

Can he be elsewhere? Depends on his partner and how much he can cover? Rielly had terrific year with Hainsey, but also could just be luck?

He will command 6.5+ on open market.

I think Leafs will re-sign him for 6M which is bad news for me. Good news for all of y'all though.

 

[TeamRenzo]

Chabot is making $8M, I don't see how TML can offer anything less unless it is a home team discount.

 

[Mersss]

Chabot is making $8M, I don't see how TML can offer anything less unless it is a home team discount.

Agreed.

Fans need to realise that taking a discount is taking lile 500K / 1M$ less, not 2-3M less / year.

Maybe signs @ 7.5 in TOR, but 6?? Give your head a shake...

 

[Captain97]

He's definitely worth $1 million more than Krug. Im guessing he get 7.5×7 or 8​

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

7.5-8 prob the best bet...

 

[Fatass]

Chabot is making $8M, I don't see how TML can offer anything less unless it is a home team discount.

Matthews, Tavares, and Marner created an internal cap structure for the Leaf’s Most important players. Considering their contracts, Reilly has to be over 9/per. Factor in the Covid flat cap era, and he signs for 8/per.

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

Matthews, Tavares, and Marner created an internal cap structure for the Leaf’s Most important players. Considering their contracts, Reilly has to be over 9/per. Factor in the Covid flat cap era, and he signs for 8/per.

Or they let him walk due to that internal cap structure. Paying Rielly 9 million in a flat cap era causes them a crunch in other areas. They will need to sign Campbell the same year or another goalie. Considering how small the gap is between Rielly, Muzzin and Brodie dealing him this off season might be an option they look at if they get the sense they are paying him 9 million on his next contract.

 

[Maplebeasts]

6 million is fair. Anyone giving him 7 or even 8 is in for a rude awakening. The guy can move the puck but makes bad decisions in the offensive zone all the time and is no good defensively. More of a lower end top pairing/higher end 2nd pairing D than a bonafide #1.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I would guess he gets 50 million over 7 years. Honestly not a great contract, but he has enough offense to make an argument for that price

 

[Fatass]

Or they let him walk due to that internal cap structure. Paying Rielly 9 million in a flat cap era causes them a crunch in other areas. They will need to sign Campbell the same year or another goalie. Considering how small the gap is between Rielly, Muzzin and Brodie dealing him this off season might be an option they look at if they get the sense they are paying him 9 million on his next contract.

So let Reilly walk, much like St. Louis let Pietrangelo go for nothing? I see a team needing a top end puck moving D man paying MR 8x7 years.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Contract comparables for Rielly, who will be 27 when he's eligible for an extension, buying up only UFA years.

Name	Age	AAV	Length	Cap%
OEL	26	8.25	8	10.38
Hedman	25	7.875	8	10.79
Carlson	28	8	8	10.06
Trouba	25	8	7	9.82
Letang	26	7.25	8	11.28
Fowler	25	6.5	8	8.67

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only Letang had been a Norris finalist (3rd), Carlson had the next best (5th) finish at the time of the signings. All buy UFA years exclusively, except Trouba, who bought one RFA year.

The flat cap will probably deflate his relative salary a bit. I think Fowler is the closest comparable, which would be a shade over 7 AAV pro-rated to an 81.5 ceiling.

I'd probably trade him this off-season if his next contract AAV doesn't begin with 6.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

Contract comparables for Rielly, who will be 27 when he's eligible for an extension, buying up only UFA years.

Name	Age	AAV	Length	Cap%
OEL	26	8.25	8	10.38
Hedman	25	7.875	8	10.79
Carlson	28	8	8	10.06
Trouba	25	8	7	9.82
Letang	26	7.25	8	11.28
Fowler	25	6.5	8	8.67

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only Letang had been a Norris finalist (3rd), Carlson had the next best (5th) finish at the time of the signings. All buy UFA years exclusively, except Trouba, who bought one RFA year.

The flat cap will probably deflate his relative salary a bit. I think Fowler is the closest comparable, which would be a shade over 7 AAV pro-rated to an 81.5 ceiling.

I'd probably trade him this off-season if his next contract AAV doesn't begin with 6.

He cant shoot from the point and has been terrible defensively the last couple of years. I'd definitely trade him and change up the defense. Muzzin and Brodie can take the tough matchups and rotate in Sandin/Lilly with the Holl, Bogo types. Maybe pick up vet PP type or move Nylander for bigger fish. No way do I want him on 7 or 8 year deal

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Trade him. Let another team pay the high price.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

He may not be a perfect D but he does bring a lot to the table and the Leafs have no one who can replace him so I think it's a foregone conclusion that he gets locked up long term. Pair him with a solid say at home guy and I think you've got a great pairing.
Around $7.5 million for 7 years would be my guess. It's hard to see how he'd take less given the salary structure of the team and his leverage.

 

[Fatass]

Trade him. Let another team pay the high price.

He’d be going as a rental, albeit a damned good one. I guess if the team getting him felt they could sign him too, the return could be pretty good. But then who takes on his role and minutes? Wouldn’t it be better to trade Nylander, get young assets, and use the saved cap space for Reilly?

 

[Flyer lurker]

Initial reaction is 7.5m per if signed early 8m if hits free agency.
Only takes one gm to overpay although Seth Jones and Pulock maybe free agents in 22 as well