Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 6

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Sypher04

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Jan 20, 2011
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Is it this cut-and-dry though? I'm just asking because marner's career assist totals is 75% of Matthews career points

Matthews has also missed somewhere around 32 games. Given that, I'm not sure comparing raw career totals as you did is entirely fair.
Their career point per game numbers are extremely similar. Matthews at 0.97 and Marner at 0.93
 

periferal

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Jul 5, 2007
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There really only seems to be a few outcomes for Marner/the Leafs at this point...

  1. The Leafs trade another player or two opening up enough cap space to give Marner the deal he wants. In this case the depth of the Leafs suffers and they might not be as good going forward.
  2. Marner is forced to take a deal he doesn't want. In this case the Leafs may have an unhappy player who ultimately wants out to get the deal he feels he deserves.
  3. Marner is traded. I don't see it coming to this (yet).
  4. Marner is offer-sheeted. I'd give this a 0.0001% chance of happening. All the "offer sheet" talk out there is probably coming from Marner's camp to force the Leafs' hand.

Of all the options ironically depending on what they can get in return #3 might be the best option.
 

Toby Flenderson

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Jun 4, 2015
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Pittsburgh offers Guentzel, Bjugstad, 2020 1st, and 2021 1st

It’s not 4x 1st’s but you also get Guentzel


Guentzel-JT-Kapanen
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Kerfoot-Bjugstad-Hyman

Kahun-Crosby-Marner
Galchenyuk-Malkin-Rust
Bleuger-McCann-Hornqvist
 
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Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Notsince67 said:
Back up....stamkos is a ufa in a no tax state.
Yes, he is also a pretty bad comparable, which is what I have been saying all along.

I'm not really sure what you're arguing.
 

Liferleafer

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Feb 9, 2011
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Pittsburgh offers Guentzel, Bjugstad, 2020 1st, and 2021 1st

It’s not 4x 1st’s but you also get Guentzel


Guentzel-JT-Kapanen
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Kerfoot-Bjugstad-Hyman

Kahun-Crosby-Marner
Galchenyuk-Malkin-Rust
Bleuger-McCann-Hornqvist
Pass. I have zero desire to trade Marmer, so if a team wants him....offersheet him and put those 1sts on the table. people will say that's a stupid attitude, i don't care.
 

saintunspecified

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Nov 30, 2017
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This is starting to take shape IMO. Both sides can't have their cake, and eat it too (money and term), so they need to compromise. Less money, less term. That's, realistically, how this gets done. Unless each side bends, this could easily go all the way to camp. It's become clear that the RFA process puts no pressure on TML because nobody wants to sign Marner to the short term deal he wants. It's a regular standoff. In the end, I believe reality will force the results that Marner will end up with a bridge deal for less than what Matthews got (because no UFA or arbitration years are included).
 
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BoredBrandonPridham

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Aug 9, 2011
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There really only seems to be a few outcomes for Marner/the Leafs at this point...

  1. The Leafs trade another player or two opening up enough cap space to give Marner the deal he wants. In this case the depth of the Leafs suffers and they might not be as good going forward.
  2. Marner is forced to take a deal he doesn't want. In this case the Leafs may have an unhappy player who ultimately wants out to get the deal he feels he deserves.
  3. Marner is traded. I don't see it coming to this (yet).
  4. Marner is offer-sheeted. I'd give this a 0.0001% chance of happening. All the "offer sheet" talk out there is probably coming from Marner's camp to force the Leafs' hand.

Of all the options ironically depending on what they can get in return #3 might be the best option.

Yea, I think those are basically the only outcomes well done :laugh: Same for all the other high-profile RFAs this year. Only hostile signings this late in the off-season.
 

hamzarocks

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Jul 22, 2012
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Pickering, Ontario
Pittsburgh offers Guentzel, Bjugstad, 2020 1st, and 2021 1st

It’s not 4x 1st’s but you also get Guentzel


Guentzel-JT-Kapanen
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Kerfoot-Bjugstad-Hyman

Kahun-Crosby-Marner
Galchenyuk-Malkin-Rust
Bleuger-McCann-Hornqvist
Sorry but if we are dealing marner I want a top pairing defender with term or a young defender who has top pairing upside and a top 9 winger. Guentzel is obviously a great player and signed for cheap relative to other wingers league wide. But marner has the potential to be the best winger in the world one day. If we are dealing that than we need to be getting a defender that will be able to play the next 10 years with Reilly and be a top 15 defenseman during that time frame.
 

Coach Parker

Stanley Cup Champion
Jun 22, 2008
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Let's see how close Marchand was on his value and contract. It ends before this thread does. Summer on HF is usually slow and either an offer sheet or contract is signed before part seven.
 

Toby Flenderson

Registered User
Jun 4, 2015
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983
Pass. I have zero desire to trade Marmer, so if a team wants him....offersheet him and put those 1sts on the table. people will say that's a stupid attitude, i don't care.
I get the appeal of 4 1sts, but there’s a chance that none of those 1st’s even become good NHL players. Getting a known commodity in Guentzel who’s signed pretty cheap, plus two 1st’s is probably a better option if the Leafs come to the conclusion that they can’t keep Marner.
 

Randy Randerson

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Jul 28, 2016
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Hamilton
Neither the Leafs nor Marner have that luxury, there's no extra cap to let Marner hold out. If he doesn't sign....he's sitting for the season.
Ya agree, the crunch comes a lot earlier than December 1st for Marner. I'm sure both sides will know exactly when that is too. Dubas needs to not blink, Marner is fighting for about the amount of money that he'll lose by sitting a season so if he's money driven he should cave before that happens
 

Liferleafer

TSN Scrum Lurker
Feb 9, 2011
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I get the appeal of 4 1sts, but there’s a chance that none of those 1st’s even become good NHL players. Getting a known commodity in Guentzel who’s signed pretty cheap, plus two 1st’s is probably a better option if the Leafs come to the conclusion that they can’t keep Marner.
Again, i don't care. I have zero desire in trading Marner for something a team is comfortable giving up. You want him? Offersheet him at a stupid number the Leafs won't match and put 4 1sts on the table.
 
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saintunspecified

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Nov 30, 2017
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Ya agree, the crunch comes a lot earlier than December 1st for Marner. I'm sure both sides will know exactly when that is too. Dubas needs to not blink, Marner is fighting for about the amount of money that he'll lose by sitting a season so if he's money driven he should cave before that happens

'Mitch Yashin' has a lovely ring to it.
 

Perfect_Drug

Registered User
Mar 24, 2006
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Montreal
I think Marner is the kind of player you'd regret losing for 4x mid-late first rounders.

Very very slim chance you get a star out of that. Most of those players historically go onto become a Curtiz Lazar, or Burakovsky type, if they even make the NHL at all.



Leafs should just give him his $11m, and call it a day.
 

Dekes For Days

Registered User
Sep 24, 2018
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andora said:
fair enough, and i'm not arguing or disagreeing but i would like to ask - where you say Matthews is 'well' over a million better, why?
Among other reasons, some of the biggest:

1. Matthews plays center. They are responsible for more of the ice area while playing, as well as face-offs and defensive positioning. And more importantly, regardless of what any of us think about it, the important thing is that GMs value centers more than wingers, and this has resulted in a different pay scale (which all of the comparables are based upon).
2. Matthews scores goals. This is the rarest and most individual skill in the game, and it costs a premium. Matthews has proven to be one of if not the best goal-scorers in the league since he came in, which commands an additional premium.
3. Matthews is big and strong. This is something that GMs value and pay a premium for, especially at the center-ice position.
4. Matthews has shown growth through each year, but has been consistently elite for his entire ELC. He has proven elite production and play with various linemates of significantly lesser quality. Marner surpassed his closest linemate in points by 6 in the year everybody wants to base his salary on. Year before that? 14, while facing much easier matchups 5v5 and getting #1PP. Meanwhile, Matthews surpassed his closest linemate in points (paced for both players) by 40. Both rookies. Year before? 22. Both years over PPG.
5. Matthews has had more responsibility in terms of role and drawing top defensive units throughout his ELC, and has generally done so with less help. Marner has mostly been sheltered in one form or another throughout his career.
6. Matthews does surpass him in most stats, even if by very little in some.
 
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