Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 3 (Warning OP)

[Killer Orcas]

Matthews was on a blistering pace the last two seasons before injuries set in both times. No one was laughing when he was compared to McDavid early in both seasons. I hope Auston puts together an injury free season this year if only to see if he really is what I think he is (a top 10 player) or if he's just Brian Savage. I'll accept the result either way, I doubt the Leaf haters will.

Mathews has started every season at a blistering pace actually but then he cools off. Even his healthy year he started out fast then cooled. He needs to work on conditioning someone has mentioned before because after coming back or starting a season he's always showing more burst. The injuries are part of the game and sadly will affect him as I've heard he's got shoulder issues.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I only bring up those players to show even with games missed if he's so elite he should be at least in top 30 points race no they are. Guy scores goals but besides rookie year hasn't hit 40 again in last 2 seasons playing on stacked offensive team. Sorry good player but not even best on own team.

Matthews has had a pretty steady increase in production every year:

2016/17: GP 82 G 40 A 29
2017/18: GP 62 G 34 A 29 (Pace: G 45 A 38)
2018/19: GP 68 G 37 A 36 (Pace: G 45 A 43)

His last year he played primarily with 2 shooters on his wing so didnt put as many goals. I expect with Nylander on his wing this year he will up his goal totals again.

If you dig into the stats you see that Matthews goals/60 were one of the best during an ELC, since entering the league his goals/60 and goals/game rank top 3. The guy gets like 2 mins less PP time than a lot of the other big stars but he is a very elite goal scorer at even strength and on the Pp.

 

[member 300185]

Its not debatable Montreal Canadiens are the greatest franchise in NHL history .

Smoke and mirrors. Habs have won 2 cups in the last 40 years. TWO!
Before that, and even back to the original 6, sure Montreal was good...against 5 teams year after year. And don't forget that in the 40's, 50's and 60's, no other team was allowed to draft or sign players out of Quebec.

In the last 40 years, since the 79/80 season (Islander won that) these teams won more than 2 or more cups.
Oilers-5
Pittsburg-5
Detroit-4
Chicago-3
New Jersey-3
Kings-2
Colorado-2

Habs fans need to stop talking like they won the cup yesterday. Its been what 26 years? Granted, since the modern era they have won 2 more cups than the Leafs. But get over yourself for racking up cup wins in the original 6 era especially since the other 5 teams were not allowed to draft Quebec players and goalies. And that 1986 win was purely on the back of Patrick Roy.

As a fan of both teams, its embarrassing to see posters swoon over the Habs. They have not been good for a very long time.
So in the modern era, Oilers, Pens, Wings, Hawks and Devils have been much better than the Habs.

Most cups, sure. Modern era....not so much.

Stop with the bragging.

 

[Killer Orcas]

Matthews has had a pretty steady increase in production every year:

2016/17: GP 82 G 40 A 29
2017/18: GP 62 G 34 A 29 (Pace: G 45 A 38)
2018/19: GP 68 G 37 A 36 (Pace: G 45 A 43)

His last year he played primarily with 2 shooters on his wing so didnt put as many goals. I expect with Nylander on his wing this year he will up his goal totals again.

If you dig into the stats you see that Matthews goals/60 were one of the best during an ELC, since entering the league his goals/60 and goals/game rank top 3. The guy gets like 2 mins less PP time than a lot of the other big stars but he is a very elite goal scorer at even strength and on the Pp.

Yes I know he's very good goal scorer at even strength. What is the deal with less PP time though which I have read many times before already. I mean his shot is probably his biggest strength why is it not used more on PP?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yes I know he's very good goal scorer at even strength. What is the deal with less PP time though which I have read many times before already. I mean his shot is probably his biggest strength why is it not used more on PP?

The leafs run a balanced PP because they had so many great PP options the past 3 years and Babcock likes to do so.

For example for the first 2 years of Matthews ELC the PP1 unit was:

Bozak, Marner, JVR, Kadri, Gardiner/Zaitsev

Nylander and Matthews played on the 2nd unit. It seemed to be a seniority thing almost but also JVR+Bozak have been great PP players on the leafs for a while. Marner really supplemented that unit too.

This year Matthews was on the first Pp unit but Babcock still split it like 60%/40%.

Finally I'm pretty sure over the last 3 years the leafs are last in power play opportunities.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

It's also illogical for Matthews to get 3M+ more than Aho, considering Aho is also a center coming off a 83 point season (leading his team in scoring) and an excellent playoff run.

It really stems back to Eichel imo. Once he got 10, there was zero chance Matthews wasn't flying past that given the better ability/production/goal scoring. I honestly expected Aho in the 9 to 10 range tho salary wise as well, so it's a very good cap hit imo (relative), which is shocking given it was an offer sheet.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

It really stems back to Eichel imo. Once he got 10, there was zero chance Matthews wasn't flying past that given the better ability/production/goal scoring. I honestly expected Aho in the 9 to 10 range tho salary wise as well, so it's a very good cap hit imo (relative), which is shocking given it was an offer sheet.

Yeah but Eichel signed for 8 years at 10M. That equates to probably 8-9 over only a five year term.

 

[Killer Orcas]

The leafs run a balanced PP because they had so many great PP options the past 3 years and Babcock likes to do so.

For example for the first 2 years of Matthews ELC the PP1 unit was:

Bozak, Marner, JVR, Kadri, Gardiner/Zaitsev

Nylander and Matthews played on the 2nd unit. It seemed to be a seniority thing almost but also JVR+Bozak have been great PP players on the leafs for a while. Marner really supplemented that unit too.

This year Matthews was on the first Pp unit but Babcock still split it like 60%/40%.

Finally I'm pretty sure over the last 3 years the leafs are last in power play opportunities.

Yes I've read there last in pp opportunity which is strange really. Shame Babcock doesn't load the 1st unit then kinda silly with all that talent at disposal. Why water it down over two units.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Yeah but Eichel signed for 8 years at 10M. That equates to probably 8-9 over only a five year term.

Yep.

Eichel and Draisaityl had contracts that were a little unprecedented in that they were paid heavily inflated aav's, but with the catch that it was an entire 8 year term.
Player advantage? High aav. (Not front loaded though, with little in signing bonuses)
Team advantage? 8 year term (making it a very reasonable aav the last couple years)
There is a tradeoff

Dubas stepped in and used that same inflated aav model, but without the catch of an 8 year term.
Player advantage? High aav, one of the most frontloaded signing bonus laden contracts ever.
Team advantage? Literally nothing at all.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Yeah but Eichel signed for 8 years at 10M. That equates to probably 8-9 over only a five year term.

I agree the term sucks. But the cap was always going to be higher to be sure.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I agree the term sucks. But the cap was always going to be higher to be sure.

There is no way Matthews is worth more on a 5 year deal than Eichel is on an 8 year deal. Dubas just didn't know how to negotiate that contract and completely rolled over.

 

[Notsince67]

Its not debatable Montreal Canadiens are the greatest franchise in NHL history .

Can you boast after they make the playoffs?

 

[Martin Skoula]

Matthews would have actually gotten offer sheets at 4-5x11+, there was a level of risk there if they dragged negotiations into the summer.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Smoke and mirrors. Habs have won 2 cups in the last 40 years. TWO!
Before that, and even back to the original 6, sure Montreal was good...against 6 teams year after year. And don't forget that in the 40's, 50's and 60's, no other team was allowed to draft or sign players out of Quebec.

In the last 40 years, since the 79/80 season (Islander won that) these teams won more than 2 or more cups.
Oilers-5
Pittsburg-5
Detroit-4
Chicago-3
New Jersey-3
Kings-2
Colorado-2

Habs fans need to stop talking like they won the cup yesterday. Its been what 26 years? Granted, since the modern era they have won 2 more cups than the Leafs. But get over yourself for racking up cup wins in the original 6 era especially since the other 5 teams were not allowed to draft Quebec players and goalies. And that 1986 win was purely on the back of Patrick Roy.

As a fan of both teams, its embarrassing to see posters swoon over the Habs. They have not been good for a very long time.
So in the modern era, Oilers, Pens, Wings, Hawks and Devils have been much better than the Habs.

Most cups, sure. Modern era....not so much.

Stop with the bragging.

I disagree. The Montreal Canadians have won 26 Cups. yes, many were won before what you call the modern era, but they still won them and Montreal shouldn't apologize for being an NHL benchmark for more than a century.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

There is no way Matthews is worth more on a 5 year deal than Eichel is on an 8 year deal. Dubas just didn't know how to negotiate that contract and completely rolled over.

As I said, the term sucks. On per year basis, everything being equal Matthews garners more and that's just a fact. He's had the better start to his career. Huge gap from a goal perspective which is arguably the most important determinant in salary in todays NHL. If Eichel is worth 10, Matthews is easily worth 11 imo, but I totally agree I'd feel way better about it if it was 7 years rather than 5. Contract kicks in next year, hopefully Matthews is able to take the next step and be dominant over a whole seasons rather than stretches.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Matthews would have actually gotten offer sheets at 4-5x11+, there was a level of risk there if they dragged negotiations into the summer.

I sincerely doubt it, considering Aho only got 8.5x5

 

[member 300185]

I disagree. The Montreal Canadians have won 26 Cups. yes, many were won before what you call the modern era, but they still won them and Montreal shouldn't apologize for being an NHL benchmark for more than a century.

They are too busy bragging about how good they are to apologize.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

As I said, the term sucks. On per year basis, everything being equal Matthews garners more and that's just a fact. He's had the better start to his career. Huge gap from a goal perspective which is arguably the most important determinant in salary in todays NHL. If Eichel is worth 10, Matthews is easily worth 11 imo, but I totally agree I'd feel way better about it if it was 7 years rather than 5. Contract kicks in next year, hopefully Matthews is able to take the next step and be dominant over a whole seasons rather than stretches.

Matthews may be worth 11 on a 8 year deal, but he's worth way less on a 5 year deal. Look at Aho's deal - young PPG+ center just went out to market and still only got 8.5.

 

[WesMcCauley]

How Matthews has had 1 bad playoff out of 3 years, yet has the reputation of disappearing in the playoffs is baffling to me. Only in Toronto...

I said he hasnt been amazing in the playoffs, which he hasnt. You should expect a lot more from a him, if you dont then that contract is very bad...
And its not only about the points but also how he has been irrelevant in a good amount of the games.

 

[Leaf Fans]

They are too busy bragging about how good they are to apologize.

Maybe so!

 

[7even]

There is no way Matthews is worth more on a 5 year deal than Eichel is on an 8 year deal. Dubas just didn't know how to negotiate that contract and completely rolled over.

Disagree. You have to consider that 1) he plays the most valuable position in the league 2) he accomplishes the most valuable and most difficult thing in the league by scoring goals at ES at an almost unprecedented rate 3) he's 6'3 and 21 years old. Put all of those together and thats as close to "f*** you pay me" you're going to get this side of McDavid.

Is his contract good? No. Is it bad? No, because you've got a unicorn of a player locked up for half a decade.

 

[Jaska]

Would Panarin be a comparable for Marner deal?

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

Smoke and mirrors. Habs have won 2 cups in the last 40 years. TWO!
Before that, and even back to the original 6, sure Montreal was good...against 5 teams year after year. And don't forget that in the 40's, 50's and 60's, no other team was allowed to draft or sign players out of Quebec.

In the last 40 years, since the 79/80 season (Islander won that) these teams won more than 2 or more cups.
Oilers-5
Pittsburg-5
Detroit-4
Chicago-3
New Jersey-3
Kings-2
Colorado-2

Habs fans need to stop talking like they won the cup yesterday. Its been what 26 years? Granted, since the modern era they have won 2 more cups than the Leafs. But get over yourself for racking up cup wins in the original 6 era especially since the other 5 teams were not allowed to draft Quebec players and goalies. And that 1986 win was purely on the back of Patrick Roy.

As a fan of both teams, its embarrassing to see posters swoon over the Habs. They have not been good for a very long time.
So in the modern era, Oilers, Pens, Wings, Hawks and Devils have been much better than the Habs.

Most cups, sure. Modern era....not so much.

Stop with the bragging.

Yeah original six times are about as comparable to the modern era as cups won before world war 2 are to the original six.

 

[MLSE]

I like Keyboard GMs acting like they wouldnt take Matthews at 11.5 over 5 or 13 over 8 if thats what he wanted and they act like they know there was wiggle.

You'd just walk in, and make him settle for less because you know your tough negotiating would lead to less pay. Matthews would buckle and you'd get him at 10 or he can walk.

Franchise shmanchise.

 

[DanM]

Would Panarin be a comparable for Marner deal?

I guess it could be, but so could the Aho deal, so it really could be between 8.5-12 lol

I am tired of some posters saying "other comparables do not matter, you have an internal comparable" but when a higher value contract is signed outside of our own team contracts, they will say THAT is now the comparable (not saying you are saying that) but in general.