Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread 9 (and counting)

[Sidney the Kidney]

Where is the low ball of Marner? Not agreeing to what his agent says, or accepting the "comparable" that his agent says is there, is not low balling him. Marner's agent has a job to get the best deal for his client. It is also in the best interest of his agent to get that deal. Dubas, on the other-hand has to fit him in with the Leafs. They will negotiate and get a deal where both sides are happy.

Read my response above. I wasn't saying Dubas lowballed him, I was saying those "take it or sit" offers the other poster mentioned as "if it were me" were lowball offers.

 

[biotk]

I was talking about your 2 hypothetical offers to Marner you posted on the last page (3x7 or 6x9.5). I'd argue those would be considered lowball by the Marner camp, and by quite a bit.

I could care less what the Marner camp thinks is a lowball offer. They are free to sign offer sheets if they think it is a lowball offer.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I could care less what the Marner camp thinks is a lowball offer. They are free to sign offer sheets if they think it is a lowball offer.

LOL that's my point, though. Dubas doesn't have the luxury of just saying "screw you then". He can't take it as personally as you seem to be if Marner doesn't sign what you offer him because he's got to then think of the ramifications of what his club would look like without Marner on it.

 

[biotk]

Read my response above. I wasn't saying Dubas lowballed him, I was saying those "take it or sit" offers the other poster mentioned as "if it were me" were lowball offers.

Completely delusional. The richest bridge deal in the history of the NHL is not a lowball offer. Neither is a 6 year deal for the same AAV as Kucherov.

 

[Dache]

He has never lowballed Marner. If he did - where the F are the offersheets? Aho was lowballed. Nor were either of my offers lowball offers.

The Leafs have been giving him completely absurd offers (just under 9M for 3 years, 11M for 6 years) for a small winger who played with a franchise center and had an unsustainable 12.7 ES oiSH%.

Genuinely curious, is that a real offer he received 11 x 6? I heard near 11 by 8, but admittedly don’t hear every offer.

 

[biotk]

LOL that's my point, though. Dubas doesn't have the luxury of just saying "screw you then". He can't take it as personally as you seem to be if Marner doesn't sign what you offer him because he's got to then think of the ramifications of what his club would look like without Marner on it.

The ramifications will be to the team if he astronomically overpays a small winger who played with a franchise center instead of just dramatically overpaying him.

 

[biotk]

Genuinely curious, is that a real offer he received 11 x 6? I heard near 11 by 8, but admittedly don’t hear every offer.

Mirtle in The Athletic said he was offered just under 9 for 3 years and roughly 11 for 6 and 7 years.

 

[Dache]

Mirtle in The Athletic said he was offered just under 9 for 3 years and roughly 11 for 6 and 7 years.

Interesting. If that is true I can’t see why he wouldn’t accept 11 x 6.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Completely delusional. The richest bridge deal in the history of the NHL is not a lowball offer. Neither is a 6 year deal for the same AAV as Kucherov.

It’s fascinating to see how far the perception has shifted for what is fair market value for Marner. I agree with what you’re saying BTW; both of these are roughly fair contracts for Marner and the $9.5M/6Y contract is actually a notable overpayment IMO.

Mirtle in The Athletic said he was offered just under 9 for 3 years and roughly 11 for 6 and 7 years.

I think I saw the 11 figure for 8 and then he said “roughly” the JT contract or something along those lines. Never saw that figure for 6 years.

 

[hector morrison]

I could care less what the Marner camp thinks is a lowball offer. They are free to sign offer sheets if they think it is a lowball offer.

What offer sheets? that must of been a humbling experience for Ferris and Daddy if they thought that was actually gonna happen...wonder what it cost to keep that jet warmed up on the tarmac?

 

[Leaf Fans]

Read my response above. I wasn't saying Dubas lowballed him, I was saying those "take it or sit" offers the other poster mentioned as "if it were me" were lowball offers.

Gotcha, my mistake.

 

[biotk]

Interesting. If that is true I can’t see why he wouldn’t accept 11 x 6.

Because nothing rational will come out of negotiations with the Marner camp until a time machine is invented and

1) people go back in time and say "wow that McDavid kid is really good but I think this Marner kid is better."
2) when the Leafs sign Marner to his ELC he gets his full "B" bonuses.
3) Marner makes the Leafs during his D+1, even it though it was a terrible team, would have been terrible for his development, and it would have meant that Marner would never have earned any B bonuses during his ELC and would have been signing his RFA contract during the summer of 2018 for way, way less money.
4) The Leafs name Marner captain.

 

[biotk]

It’s fascinating to see how far the perception has shifted for what is fair market value for Marner. I agree with what you’re saying BTW; both of these are roughly fair contracts for Marner and the $9.5M/6Y contract is actually a notable overpayment IMO.

Agreed.

I think I saw the 11 figure for 8 and then he said “roughly” the JT contract or something along those lines. Never saw that figure for 6 years.

This is what Mirtle said:

"But it’s my understanding that the Leafs have been aggressive in trying to get this done to the point that they’re offering well north of all of those figures on the three-, six- and seven-year contracts. And by aggressive I mean in the range of just under $9-million to roughly $11-million per season, depending on the term."

Note - the reference to all of those figures was to Tulloch's earlier piece on from May on Marner's comparables (Tulloch's numbers were similar to what I proposed).

So the Leafs had been offering 3, 6 and 7 year contracts - the 3-year would be just under 9M (which is absurd) and the 6 and 7 year roughly 11M. I would assume based on the quote a little less than 11M for 6 and a little more than 11 for 7, but I have no idea.

Note 2 - it is also possible that Marner's camp found one of those offers acceptable. I am one of the few on here who believes that the rumour that Shanahan stepped in to veto a deal that was close to being agreed upon is likely true.

 

[biotk]

What offer sheets? that must of been a humbling experience for Ferris and Daddy if they thought that was actually gonna happen...wonder what it cost to keep that jet warmed up on the tarmac?

I doubt anything can humble Ferris and Daddy.

 

[zeke]

yes marner is a RFA but there are other high profile RFAs still unsigned where are the counter number on threads and still counting?

Where is Point mega thread and still counting?
Where is Laine mega thread and still counting?
Where is Rantanen megathread and still counting?
Where is McAvoy megatherad and still counting?
Where is (fill in the blanks) and still counting?

Marner isn't Gretzky to get such high profile threads. Mainboards turn on leafs fans on a dime for hyping their own players and I see a lot of non-leaf fans in the marner thread;

where are other high profile players' threads that we are counting?

This thread is not and never has been about Marner.

It's about Matthews.

 

[zeke]

However, I think this is even more interesting:

Of course you do.

 

[hector morrison]

I doubt anything can humble Ferris and Daddy.

Not even putting their feet in their mouths,apparently. Maybe they learned...been quiet lately.

 

[biotk]

Not even putting their feet in their mouths,apparently. Maybe they learned...been quiet lately.

That is a good point. Their OS gambit failed pretty bad. I do wonder if some of companies that Marner does endorsements for told him that they didn't like the public theatrics from his agent and father. Pure speculation on my part.

 

[hector morrison]

That is a good point. Their OS gambit failed pretty bad. I do wonder if some of companies that Marner does endorsements for told him that they didn't like the public theatrics from his agent and father. Pure speculation on my part.

I'm reasonably sure some companies are chompin' at the bit to get Mitch on board(everyone loves the lad!) but they can't commit until they know more...Maybe Auston and Willy are gettin' more of the endorsement pie now,so Ferris has botched that as well.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

This thread is not and never has been about Marner.

It's about Matthews.

This thread has been more about Matthews than it has been about Marner because most neutral fans who chime in on the discussion mention that Toronto's salary structure is player friendly, and that because of this player friendly salary structure, Marner will be paid more than his market comparables such as 2009 Patrick Kane or Mikko Rantanen. In doing so, these neutral fans often cite Auston Matthews' unprecedented contract, which was the first in NHL history that made a forward with a career high of 73 points or fewer the 3rd highest paid player in the NHL. It's a key point of discussion, and it makes sense; why should Marner be paid the same as Patrick Kane after his ELC, when Auston Matthews was paid 25% more than Steven Stamkos after his ELC?

In response, a few fans such as yourself throw out an avalanche of cherry picked statistics, as well as personal attacks, and accusations that posters who disagrees with you are just "haters" who are "jealous". Some posters, such as yourself in particular have repeatedly posted these cherry picked statistics, even in response to nobody and even when the discussion at hand has nothing to do with Matthews.

What generally creates the most discussion and heavy arguments are severe disagreements between evaluations. People are more likely to respond to something that makes them say "what the heck, this is totally inaccurate" than they are to respond to things that they slightly disagree with. In this thread, the posts that make people say "what the heck, this is totally inaccurate, I totally disagree with this" are much more commonly made by Maple Leafs fans about Auston Matthews than they are about Mitch Marner.

For example, a little while back in this thread, you made the following post:

Agreed.

Last 2yrs:

ES P1/60

1.Matthews 2.52
2.McDavid 2.44
3.Kucherov 2.36
...
10.Malkin 2.11
...
15.MArner 2.06
...
18.MacKinnon 2.04


P/60

1.Kucherov 3.14
2.McDavid 3.13
3.MAthews 2.94
...
10.Giroux 2.58
...
15.TAvares 2.52
...
19.MAcKinnon 2.51


You are absolutely right - there are a plethora of players in between Matthews and MacKinnon.​

Now, you knew this would be a heavy point of contention. You know the consensus opinion is that MacKinnon is considerably superior to Matthews. Posting an opinion like yours - that there are a plethora of players between Matthews and MacKinnon (and implying that Matthews is superior) - is going to lead a lot more people to say "wow, I totally, 100%, unequivocally disagree with this. So much so that reading it bothers me." than most other posts in this thread. People respond more to posts like that than they respond to posts where somebody says "I think Marner will get $10.616M/6Y."

Comparably, there aren't nearly as many outlandish, unpopular opinions pumping the tires of Marner in these threads. I'm not seeing anybody saying that there are a plethora of players between Marner and Draisaitl, but I'm sure if somebody made a statement like that which was at equal odds with consensus as your opinion regarding MacKinnon/Matthews, there would be a lot more discussion about Marner.

Because you are one of the biggest contributors to this thread being about Auston Matthews than anybody else, I find it incredibly ironic that you would complain about this thread being about him.

Of course you do.

And that is why I found the comment so interesting. We've argued for months about whether Toronto's internal salary structure is player friendly; in fact, for months, such arguments have dominated these threads. And we've now got NHL agents telling us that Toronto's internal salary structure is player-friendly. Those who were on the other side of this argument have basically been proven right at this point in time.

So yes, I do find it interesting that what I have been arguing for months has been proven right, although it was already fairly obvious and generally agreed upon by most who aren't dogmatic apologists for the man who is responsible for Toronto's player friendly internal salary structure. And this is right in line with the numbers reported by James Mirtle, which suggest that Toronto is already offering some extremely player friendly contracts to Marner, including an unprecedented 3-year bridge deal.

 

[Seanaconda]

I’m fine with it.

The Marner camp has been disgusting throughout. I would give them my offers and they can take it or leave it. He has already solicited offersheets. If he wants to take his chances that I would match an OS of 3 x 7.5, he is free to do so.

He should just sign one if the leafs want to shaft him. It seems like he hasn't signed an os in good faith but If they are sending out garbage offers like yours he should just sign a 4 year one and get it over with.

Have fun trying to replace him in fa with the money you save

 

[Leaf Fans]

He should just sign one if the leafs want to shaft him. It seems like he hasn't signed an os in good faith but If they are sending out garbage offers like yours he should just sign a 4 year one and get it over with.

Have fun trying to replace him in fa with the money you save

That is what it sounds like to you?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Agreed.



This is what Mirtle said:

"But it’s my understanding that the Leafs have been aggressive in trying to get this done to the point that they’re offering well north of all of those figures on the three-, six- and seven-year contracts. And by aggressive I mean in the range of just under $9-million to roughly $11-million per season, depending on the term."

Note - the reference to all of those figures was to Tulloch's earlier piece on from May on Marner's comparables (Tulloch's numbers were similar to what I proposed).

So the Leafs had been offering 3, 6 and 7 year contracts - the 3-year would be just under 9M (which is absurd) and the 6 and 7 year roughly 11M. I would assume based on the quote a little less than 11M for 6 and a little more than 11 for 7, but I have no idea.

Note 2 - it is also possible that Marner's camp found one of those offers acceptable. I am one of the few on here who believes that the rumour that Shanahan stepped in to veto a deal that was close to being agreed upon is likely true.

So, I believe I have argued with you before about the Leafs internal salary structure. But I want to get your take on things here, cause we are mostly in agreement on most of this stuff.

What do you think it is that caused this world in which our perception of a "fair contract" is so far from reality that we think $7M/3Y and $9.5M/6Y are severe lowball offers?

 

[zeke]

What do you think it is that caused this world in which our perception of a "fair contract" is so far from reality that we think $7M/3Y and $9.5M/6Y are severe lowball offers?

The exact same thing that has caused a mitch Marner RFA thread to be 9 threads long in August, when no other RFA even has a thread.

HF's hilarious Leafs Derangement Syndrome.

 

[zeke]

Posters such as myself that have shown the numbers which show Matthews as worth his contract? WHAT!?!? That might be the greatest strawman of all time!

I have said, from the very moment that Matthews signed his contract, that it was a very player friendly deal. I have cited various metrics numbers that defend this idea:





And when people have brought up the discrepancy between metrics like P/60 and points, I have posted my own research which shows that points are a higher driving factor of pay than P/60:



So, please don't tell me what numbers I have and have not posted unless you have actually read my posts. Clearly in this case, you have not.

You literally posted the numbers you said you liked - such as GAR - and then chose to ignore them.

It's all very amusing.