Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread 9 (and counting)

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biotk

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Where are you seeing that figure? I just skimmed the most recent article from the Toronto Star. The closest thing I could find is this:

As the Marner contract stalemate simmers, the NHL considers a better way | The Star



However, I think this is even more interesting:

30 - 33 M over 3 years is 10 to 11 M. He isn’t worth close to that. Hopefully the rumours about Shanahan vetoing a near deal are in regards to the offers Mirtle claims the Leafs made to Marner.

My 4 offers would be:
3x7
6x9.5 (slightly more for 7 or 8 years)
Take your chances with an OS
Sit for the season.
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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you know exactly what “near” season and a half I am talking about.
No, I 100% honestly don't, because there is no season and a half that is relevant to the discussion that was being had before you interjected.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

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May 14, 2012
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30 - 33 M over 3 years is 10 to 11 M. He isn’t worth close to that. Hopefully the rumours about Shanahan vetoing a near deal are in regards to the offers Mirtle claims the Leafs made to Marner.

My 4 offers would be:
3x7
6x9.5 (slightly more for 7 or 8 years)
Take your chances with an OS
Sit for the season.

You’d honestly rather he sit for the season than sign for $7.5M/3Y?
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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yes.. yes they are
So no answers then? You should have kept reading, because the more relevant part to you came right after.
I have supported my position repeatedly whenever I call somebody out, whereas a ton of the people coming at me have failed to support their positions or accusations, usually running away from the conversation when they hit a block.
 

biotk

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Jan 3, 2017
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You’d honestly rather he sit for the season than sign for $7.5M/3Y?

I’m fine with it.

The Marner camp has been disgusting throughout. I would give them my offers and they can take it or leave it. He has already solicited offersheets. If he wants to take his chances that I would match an OS of 3 x 7.5, he is free to do so.
 
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Dache

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Feb 12, 2018
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What do you mean it wasn't defined?? Besides me specifically mentioning it in the posts you quoted:


the entire discussion, which you brought up, was about Marner's reported ask of 9m+. This report happened last offseason. It doesn't make sense under any other timeline. Last offseason, Marner had over 1 and a half seasons where his production and play was incredibly similar to Nylander, if not worse, and just under a half-season where he put up better production, after an incredibly disappointing half-season and while JVR was on fire and our PP had an insane OISH%.

In response, I explained the difference between paying somebody (Marner) based solely on extrapolating a tiny sample size (his 33 games or whatever - with underlying metrics saying he was overachieving) and expecting it to happen again vs. paying somebody (Matthews) based on the numbers he had put up over his entire career to date (a much, much, much bigger sample size).

Then Dache, who was not part of the conversation, replied to me:

As you can see, he brought up the season and a half. What season and a half is he talking about?
If he's talking about the 33 games he later claims, that is not a season and a half.
If he's talking about the other season and a half of his career, that is not the sample that shows Marner's increased production, which is what was being discussed to supposedly justify his 9m+ ask.
So what exactly is he talking about? I still have never gotten an answer. As you can see, I even specifically ask him near the beginning of all of this:

He comes back with this response:

As you can see, he brought up the 33 games, and as you can see, this response makes no sense. How is the season in which he got 37 points in 33 games equal to a season and a half? Then when called out on that making no sense, he doubles down on the season and a half claim again, instead of providing an explanation.

So I repeated again that 33 games is not "nearly" a season and a half either, since he seemed to put emphasis on that nearly part. In that post, I reiterate that I am talking about last offseason.

Meanwhile, he has already jumped to accusations against me.


This is just complete garbage and you know it. Where did I take his comment "off to the races"? Where did I form anything? Where did I create a narrative? Literally everything we talked about, he brought up, and I repeatedly asked for clarification that he did not give.
Dache
jumped into a conversation that he was not part of, replying directly to me. He started this back and forth, yet somehow I have an obligation to make sure he understands obvious details perfectly?
Dache did not understand the timelines being discussed, yet I'm supposed to be psychic and know that somehow?
Dache did not ask for an explanation of what was being discussed or give an explanation of what he meant, yet I'm to blame for the misunderstanding?
Dache brought up the season and a half, yet you claim that I create this narrative?
Dache brought up the 33 games, yet you claim that I create this narrative?
Dache is the one who started the hostility and made accusations against me, yet you insult me and talk about all the things I am doing, not him?


I am replying constantly because he is attacking me and misrepresenting the situation. I was trying to explain, and I DID ASK. I even showed you the post where I asked him what season and a half he was talking about, and he came back with a just-as-confusing answer. I asked him what he means again and he just corrects the season and a half to "nearly". Ffs.

Also, why is it not his responsibility to ask me when he is the one butting into the conversation with his opinions and not understanding? He clearly had no idea what my line of thinking was, by your own admission, yet you only come at me, never the other person, expecting me to be the parent to a bunch of kids.


You would've seen it more from the other side, yet you specifically single me out.

Sometimes people are wrong. And if they are wrong, I will call them out for being wrong, while showing them how/why they are wrong. I have supported my position repeatedly whenever I call somebody out, whereas a ton of the people coming at me have failed to support their positions or accusations, usually running away from the conversation when they hit a block.

This isn't reffing where everybody has to get equal calls no matter who is in the wrong. Many people in this thread are uninformed. Many people in this thread are the usual outright trolls, attempting to spread chaos in anything Leafs. Many people are stuck in century-old outdated ways of evaluating players, and adamantly refuse to consider anything else that has been proven to be more effective or adds additional context. They crave being able to ignore context, because that's the only way they can maintain the narratives that have persisted in this thread.

It is not my job to baby people. It is not my job to give participation trophies and enable the people who send this thread off-topic. I am here to set the record straight, and provide evidence. I will not abandon evidence based discussion in favour of unsupported feelings or incoherent ramblings. That type of thinking has already screwed this world up enough.


How ironic that you are the one insulting here.


And if that's how you want to operate because you're barely around and don't care and don't have to deal with it all the time, go for it. But you can't tell other people how to act. If somebody has repeatedly broken rules, insulted/accused me of things, spouted lies/misrepresentations, refused to support their positions with evidence, and held certain positions only when it comes to Leaf players, then I am not going to have the same patience with them as I would with somebody actually here to learn and contribute in a productive way, and that's my right.


Easy to say now when you don't attach your name to any of the discussions/perspectives. Why don't you debate me on those points instead of only coming at me with blanket attacks?


That could not be further from the truth. I at least try to add further depth to the conversation whenever I reply, and clear up/address any misconceptions. That doesn't mean I won't defend myself from personal attacks or incorrect statements.

Most posters I reply to stick to their original position to the death, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. Most posters have initiated hostility towards me way before I engage. Yet again, you only say this to me?

Really? Every post you’ve made towards me was hostile. And most of them were made first. If you were talking about the season before last exclusively then that is one thing, however right now is when Marner still needs a contract. And he does now have nearly a season and half of showing this productivity. The post I replied to said that he has not proven that he can do it for any large size of sample. If that meant last off-season which I never saw stated then so be it. The fact remains he needs a contract now so the last season does count.

Furthermore. How did I “butt in” to a conversation on a public forum? If you’re truly interested in having a private conversation with someone there are ways to do it, I can’t possibly be expected to read 1000s of posts to try to see every detail

Lastly, the first interaction I eve had with you was a week or so ago and you are the one that began the hostility, then continued to discuss how I have a long history of misrepresenting info and many other insults, yet when I asked what you meant you have no response for me. Everyone continues to see you belittle and insult people on here and claim any evidence they have as wrong or unsupported no matter how many links are supplied. If you want anyone else to admit they’re wrong maybe you need to do it yourself when it happens
 
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andora

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I mean, let’s look at what we’ve seen...

The vast majority of neutral fans, and even a large percentage of Toronto fans believe that Nylander and Matthews were notably overpaid.

James Mirtle of The Athletic says that the sense around the league is that Marner will get paid the most, and that other RFAs are waiting for Marner to sign so that they can see what they can ask for.

Joe Smith of The Athletic says that a source tells him that agents are waiting for Marner to get his deal done to set the market.

Mitch Marner’s agent went to the media and said that Auston Matthews’ contract is the most player-friendly contract in the league.

And now, The Toronto Star has quoted an NHL agent who said that Toronto’s salary structure is player friendly.

We can argue tirelessly about whether or not we think Toronto’s salary structure is player-friendly. But it’s clear as day that the consensus around the league is that it is very player friendly.

if i close my eyes it isn't real right?

i remember when tavares signed it was happy/concerned. after getting over the fact of such a huge UFA signing, i remember saying that is a lot of money. personally i thought that was going to raise matthews and marner, nylander i felt was always third

it's no shock they didn't sign last off season - they waited to see what nylander got, went out and produced and no doubt in my mind tavares' contract played a part in theirs (marner's to be). if they never signed tavares i would also bet marner would already be locked up.
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Really? Every post you’ve made towards me was hostile.
Incorrect. I've made countless posts just trying to explain the situation to you and asking you to clarify.

If you were talking about the season before last exclusively then that is one thing, however right now is when Marner still needs a contract. And he does now have nearly a season and half of showing this productivity.
Whether he has a season and a half now is completely irrelevant, because the discussion was about last offseason. That is the only time that offer was reportedly available. We were discussing the details around signing him to that contract last offseason.

The post I replied to said that he has not proven that he can do it for any large size of sample.
Because at that point in time, he hadn't.

The fact remains he needs a contract now so the last season does count.
But not for the purposes of a discussion about decisions last offseason.
And as we can see from the quoted posts, I informed you that we were talking about last offseason multiple times.

Furthermore. How did I “butt in” to a conversation on a public forum? If you’re truly interested in having a private conversation with someone there are ways to do it, I can’t possibly be expected to read 1000s of posts to try to see every detail
You don't have to read every post. However, don't join a conversation between two individuals, misunderstand what's being discussed, and then throw around accusations at the person and claim that they are misrepresenting things based on your own misunderstanding.

Lastly, the first interaction I eve had with you was a week or so ago and you are the one that began the hostility
You were immediately hostile in this thread when your positions were countered with evidence, and you have only continued to be since.

If you want anyone else to admit they’re wrong maybe you need to do it yourself when it happens
I do.
 

Michel Beauchamp

Canadiens' fan since 1958
Mar 17, 2008
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That could not be further from the truth. I at least try to add further depth to the conversation whenever I reply, and clear up/address any misconceptions. That doesn't mean I won't defend myself from personal attacks or incorrect statements.

Most posters I reply to stick to their original position to the death, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. Most posters have initiated hostility towards me way before I engage. Yet again, you only say this to me?
Poor you.

Two songs spring to mind.

One is Carly Simon's "You're so Vain", which I believe I already have used in this context.

The second one is a personal favorite (amongst many):

 

TomasHertlsRooster

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May 14, 2012
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if i close my eyes it isn't real right?

i remember when tavares signed it was happy/concerned. after getting over the fact of such a huge UFA signing, i remember saying that is a lot of money. personally i thought that was going to raise matthews and marner, nylander i felt was always third

it's no shock they didn't sign last off season - they waited to see what nylander got, went out and produced and no doubt in my mind tavares' contract played a part in theirs (marner's to be). if they never signed tavares i would also bet marner would already be locked up.

I don’t see why that contract should have had anything to do with what Matthews or Nylander got paid. He was a UFA who got paid big UFA money. Matthews hadn’t proven as much as Tavares had, nor did he have remotely as much leverage as an RFA; same goes for Nylander to a lesser extent. Before Matthews signed his contract, there were some of the same notorious Leafs posters suggesting that Matthews definitely shouldn’t be paid as much as Tavares was.

Remember, the Sharks offered $13M to Tavares and he took $2M less to sign with Toronto. If anything, Dubas should’ve used it to his advantage by convincing the kids to follow JT’s lead and take less than market value.

Having said that, even if you believe that the JT contract did lead to a trickle down effect that led to all 3 of the kids being paid a combined $4M more than they’re worth, it was still worth it to add a franchise center for no assets.
 
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andora

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I don’t see why that contract should have had anything to do with what Matthews or Nylander got paid. He was a UFA who got paid big UFA money. Matthews hadn’t proven as much as Tavares had, nor did he have remotely as much leverage as an RFA; same goes for Nylander to a lesser extent. Before Matthews signed his contract, there were some of the same notorious Leafs posters suggesting that Matthews definitely shouldn’t be paid as much as Tavares was.

Remember, the Sharks offered $13M to Tavares and he took $2M less to sign with Toronto. If anything, Dubas should’ve used it to his advantage by convincing the kids to follow JT’s lead and take less than market value.

Having said that, even if you believe that the JT contract did lead to a trickle down effect that led to all 3 of the kids being paid a combined $4M more than they’re worth, it was still worth it to add a franchise center for no assets.

100% agree with the bolded.
 

PromisedLand

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yes marner is a RFA but there are other high profile RFAs still unsigned where are the counter number on threads and still counting?

Where is Point mega thread and still counting?
Where is Laine mega thread and still counting?
Where is Rantanen megathread and still counting?
Where is McAvoy megatherad and still counting?
Where is (fill in the blanks) and still counting?

Marner isn't Gretzky to get such high profile threads. Mainboards turn on leafs fans on a dime for hyping their own players and I see a lot of non-leaf fans in the marner thread;

where are other high profile players' threads that we are counting?
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
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yes marner is a RFA but there are other high profile RFAs still unsigned where are the counter number on threads and still counting?

Where is Point mega thread and still counting?
Where is Laine mega thread and still counting?
Where is Rantanen megathread and still counting?
Where is McAvoy megatherad and still counting?
Where is (fill in the blanks) and still counting?

Marner isn't Gretzky to get such high profile threads. Mainboards turn on leafs fans on a dime for hyping their own players and I see a lot of non-leaf fans in the marner thread;

where are other high profile players' threads that we are counting?

According to reports from James Mirtle and Joe Smith, those other high profile players are waiting for Marner to be signed.
 

Lurk Muller

Registered User
Oct 11, 2018
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yes marner is a RFA but there are other high profile RFAs still unsigned where are the counter number on threads and still counting?

Where is Point mega thread and still counting?
Where is Laine mega thread and still counting?
Where is Rantanen megathread and still counting?
Where is McAvoy megatherad and still counting?
Where is (fill in the blanks) and still counting?

Marner isn't Gretzky to get such high profile threads. Mainboards turn on leafs fans on a dime for hyping their own players and I see a lot of non-leaf fans in the marner thread;

where are other high profile players' threads that we are counting?
I think there's one thread to talk about all of them. If you want mega threads for them all just find 6 guys willing to make 1000 or so posts each arguing with each other about things that are off topic.

Still think Marner signs a 3 year deal. Some people that follow the team closer than me say 2 years would be more likely, so maybe that?
 

MoreMogilny

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According to reports from James Mirtle and Joe Smith, those other high profile players are waiting for Marner to be signed.

How long will they all wait, though?

Surely some of these guys just want to get to camp and focus on hockey. To me if Marner is the biggest hold out among the high profile RFAs, he won’t be the first to go.

All speculation of course.

A large part of me is concerned for what kind of contract we are going to see. I’m hoping for either 3, or max term.
 

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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I’m fine with it.

The Marner camp has been disgusting throughout. I would give them my offers and they can take it or leave it. He has already solicited offersheets. If he wants to take his chances that I would match an OS of 3 x 7.5, he is free to do so.

Isn't this taking negotiation personally, though? I don't think Dubas has the luxury of getting his feathers ruffled any time he has to deal with a difficult agent where he low-balls Marner and says "take it or sit".
 

Pile

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May 5, 2015
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yes marner is a RFA but there are other high profile RFAs still unsigned where are the counter number on threads and still counting?

Where is Point mega thread and still counting?
Where is Laine mega thread and still counting?
Where is Rantanen megathread and still counting?
Where is McAvoy megatherad and still counting?
Where is (fill in the blanks) and still counting?

Marner isn't Gretzky to get such high profile threads. Mainboards turn on leafs fans on a dime for hyping their own players and I see a lot of non-leaf fans in the marner thread;

where are other high profile players' threads that we are counting?

To be fair, large chunks of these threads have devolved to bickering about things non Marner related (Matthews or MacK/taxes come to mind). It really shouldn’t come as a surprise that Leaf related subject matter gets more a spotlight on this site, or any for that matter.
 

biotk

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Buffalo
Isn't this taking negotiation personally, though? I don't think Dubas has the luxury of getting his feathers ruffled any time he has to deal with a difficult agent where he low-balls Marner and says "take it or sit".

He has never lowballed Marner. If he did - where the F are the offersheets? Aho was lowballed. Nor were either of my offers lowball offers.

The Leafs have been giving him completely absurd offers (just under 9M for 3 years, 11M for 6 years) for a small winger who played with a franchise center and had an unsustainable 12.7 ES oiSH%.
 
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Leaf Fans

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Isn't this taking negotiation personally, though? I don't think Dubas has the luxury of getting his feathers ruffled any time he has to deal with a difficult agent where he low-balls Marner and says "take it or sit".
Where is the low ball of Marner? Not agreeing to what his agent says, or accepting the "comparable" that his agent says is there, is not low balling him. Marner's agent has a job to get the best deal for his client. It is also in the best interest of his agent to get that deal. Dubas, on the other-hand has to fit him in with the Leafs. They will negotiate and get a deal where both sides are happy.
 
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