Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread 9 (and counting)

[Legion34]

According to reports from James Mirtle and Joe Smith, those other high profile players are waiting for Marner to be signed.

And if Marner and the leafs wait til 430’on dec 1 then what? They all just sit out?

 

[Saltcreek]

And if Marner and the leafs wait til 430’on dec 1 then what? They all just sit out?

No, they will sign before then but that does not change the fact that waiting on Marner to sign has a high chance of increasing their earnings.

JoeThortonsRooster is not wrong in that there is a general consensus that the Matthew's and Nylander's contracts are player friendly. Nylander's is less of an issue because he will probably grow into it but Matthew's contract is very player friendly because of the term. If it was 8 years then no one would be talking about it.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Exactly - you literally brought stats into the thread, and then ignored what they told you so you could continue to troll instead.

As for my biases - Well, they haven't stopped me from being exactly right about how good this matthews leafs team is from day one.

Meanwhile, HF's anti leafs bias has them embarassing themselves with their leafs projections year after year. And then we have unbelievably embarassing threads like this one to really hammer the bias home.

9 threads on mitch Marner, whose value is pretty much universally agreed upon and whose team has exactly that much cap space saved to use on him, and zero threads on all the other free agents most of all of whom are in a much more interesting situation.

At least the 2 years of dreaming on offer sheets has finally died down. And I'm sure you really believed all those legitimate Twitter and agent quotes when they told you that offer sheet Armageddon was gonna crush the leafs.

You guys have an unhealthy obsession and it's literally making you less intelligent.

Actually, here is what I have previously said about offer sheets for Toronto players:

I agree that Marner won’t sign an offer sheet.

In the same vein, Laine is not getting 11M.

To save us all from playing psychologist and trying to tell one another why Auston Matthews would or wouldn’t sign an offer sheet with Arizona, the likelihood that A) Arizona would actually make this move, given their financial situation, and B) Toronto would not immediately match is so low that it’s not even worth talking about.

San Jose doesn’t have their 1st in 2019 so they couldn’t offer sheet Nylander if they wanted, but I don’t think anybody would pay him that much on an offer sheet. That’s not a smart amount to pay in terms of both cap hit and in terms of assets for a player who has only proven as much as Nylander has.

News: - Leafs cap - Dubas: We can, and we will keep all our 4 top F

Proposal: - Matthews Offer Sheet from Arizona?

Speculation: - Will any of the remaining RFAs get offer sheeted?

Now that your assumptions on my opinions have been proven completely wrong, maybe you should stop pretending to be some psychologist, and telling other posters that they have an unhealthy obsession that is making them less intelligent. Such accusations are completely baseless and counter-productive to any sort of real discussion.

 

[yababy]

Mirtle in The Athletic said he was offered just under 9 for 3 years and roughly 11 for 6 and 7 years.

Geez, that 11 looks pretty good

 

[zeke]

Actually, here is what I have previously said about offer sheets for Toronto players:







News: - Leafs cap - Dubas: We can, and we will keep all our 4 top F

Proposal: - Matthews Offer Sheet from Arizona?

Speculation: - Will any of the remaining RFAs get offer sheeted?

Now that your assumptions on my opinions have been proven completely wrong, maybe you should stop pretending to be some psychologist, and telling other posters that they have an unhealthy obsession that is making them less intelligent. Such accusations are completely baseless and counter-productive to any sort of real discussion.

Good on you if your quoted selections here are the complete picture.

So I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

Now, given the hilarious amount of leafs offer sheet talk and assertions from media, agents, and the "hockey world" as you call it - why haven't you learned that none of that is evidence of anything, and why are you now trying to use it as evidence here, when we now know (apparently) that you ignored it before?

And no, unfortunately, your persistent presence in this thread, using stats we know you are are smart enough to know intentionally omit hugely relevant data no less, is still easily enough to be forced to acknowledge your obsessive bias towards the leafs.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Good on you if your quoted selections here are the complete picture.

So I will give you the benefit of the doubt.

Now, given the hilarious amount of leafs offer sheet talk and assertions from media, agents, and the "hockey world" as you call it - why haven't you learned that none of that is evidence of anything, and why are you now trying to use it as evidence here, when we now know (apparently) that you ignored it before?

And no, unfortunately, your persistent presence in this thread, using stats we know you are are smart enough to know intentionally omit hugely relevant data no less, is still easily enough to be forced to acknowledge your obsessive bias towards the leafs.

Yes, I definitely have an obsessive bias. This same bias literally led me to overrate Toronto and say that they would beat Boston.

I don’t think last year’s playoff series or 2013’s playoff series means all that much for how Toronto would fare against Boston.

The only players from the 2013 roster still playing for Toronto are Kadri and Gardiner. That should tell you pretty quickly why that series is totally irrelevant to what would happen between them today.

The 2018 playoff series is obviously far more relevant but I don’t think it means that Boston “has their number”. Boston was a very strong team that finished 4th in the NHL with 112 points and 2nd with 47 ROWs, while Toronto finished 6th with 105 points and 9th with 42 ROWs. The reality is that last season, Boston was just a little bit better, in what was a weird series where Matthews was injured and Kadri got suspended. And it still ended up being a 7 game series where Toronto held a lead going into the 3rd period.

This season, Toronto is 2nd in points percentage and 2nd in ROW, while Boston is 9th in points percentage and 8th in ROW. I think Toronto is the better team so I voted them.

Again, dedicating your entire posts to accusing other posters of biases is not only incredibly ironic coming from you, but it's also a way to deny any real discussion or debate. Accusing other posters of having mental health issues just makes it even worse.

Now, the talk of Toronto's internal salary structure is much different from the talk of offer sheets because I can see the player friendly internal salary structure. Just as I don't need somebody from The Athletic to tell me that Tampa's internal salary structure is team-friendly, I don't need somebody to tell me that Toronto's is player-friendly. It's clear as day and the only people who really deny it are posters such as yourself with a history of denying ANYTHING that does not sound good for your team. Some people debate the degree to which it is player-friendly, but there is a very select few who actually argue that it is not player-friendly and those who do suggest that have a behavioral pattern of defending all decisions made by their team.

Beyond that, the way that it is being talked about is much different from the way that offer sheets were talked about. This isn't just Darren Dreger shilling for Darren Ferris by saying that Marner could receive an offer sheet in the teens. We've got Joe Smith at The Athletic quoting a source saying that teams are waiting for Marner to sign his contract. We've got James Mirtle saying that Marner will get more than his comparables would dictate, and that it will be a controversial and precedent-setting contract when he does. We've got Mitch Marner's agent saying that Matthews' contract is the most player friendly contract in the NHL. For what it's worth, we've even got Mike Babcock crediting Tampa's players for buying into their salary structure. And my research through many different metrics has shown me that Matthews was a major overpayment.

When you put all that information together, it seems a lot more reasonable to see an NHL agent saying that Toronto's salary structure is player friendly. In fact, the way that he says it is actually as though it's a premise that is widely agreed upon. Which it is pretty much is outside of a vocal minority. Even the majority of Toronto fans in the Matthews contract signing thread said that he was overpaid. Some of the posters who have turned around and defended the contract had him projected at much less than he actually got. Didn't you actually predict Matthews getting less as well?

 

[zeke]

Yes, I definitely have an obsessive bias. This same bias literally led me to overrate Toronto and say that they would beat Boston.



Again, dedicating your entire posts to accusing other posters of biases is not only incredibly ironic coming from you, but it's also a way to deny any real discussion or debate. Accusing other posters of having mental health issues just makes it even worse.

Now, the talk of Toronto's internal salary structure is much different from the talk of offer sheets because I can see the player friendly internal salary structure. Just as I don't need somebody from The Athletic to tell me that Tampa's internal salary structure is team-friendly, I don't need somebody to tell me that Toronto's is player-friendly. It's clear as day and the only people who really deny it are posters such as yourself with a history of denying ANYTHING that does not sound good for your team. Some people debate the degree to which it is player-friendly, but there is a very select few who actually argue that it is not player-friendly and those who do suggest that have a behavioral pattern of defending all decisions made by their team.

Beyond that, the way that it is being talked about is much different from the way that offer sheets were talked about. This isn't just Darren Dreger shilling for Darren Ferris by saying that Marner could receive an offer sheet in the teens. We've got Joe Smith at The Athletic quoting a source saying that teams are waiting for Marner to sign his contract. We've got James Mirtle saying that Marner will get more than his comparables would dictate, and that it will be a controversial and precedent-setting contract when he does. We've got Mitch Marner's agent saying that Matthews' contract is the most player friendly contract in the NHL. For what it's worth, we've even got Mike Babcock crediting Tampa's players for buying into their salary structure. And my research through many different metrics has shown me that Matthews was a major overpayment.

When you put all that information together, it seems a lot more reasonable to see an NHL agent saying that Toronto's salary structure is player friendly. In fact, the way that he says it is actually as though it's a premise that is widely agreed upon. Which it is pretty much is outside of a vocal minority. Even the majority of Toronto fans in the Matthews contract signing thread said that he was overpaid. Some of the posters who have turned around and defended the contract had him projected at much less than he actually got. Didn't you actually predict Matthews getting less as well?

So we have:

- this media and agent talk is different than that media and agent talk because you agree with it

- the leafs have a "player friendly salary structure"....which of course is simply a new euphemism for "Auston Matthews is Overpaid". In reality, the leafs cap situation is airtight, with a perfect amount available to pay Marner exactly what he deserves, with the leafs icing one of the elite talent teams in the league, with zero bad contracts - and that's even without the benefit of even one ELC player in the top half or even top 2/3 of the roster. Hell of an accomplishment to have when you supposedly have a "player friendly cap structure".

- your own statistical analysis, which you spent a good deal of time putting together, literally comes down to a conclusion that points per game is the only useful measure to evaluate contracts on. You seem like a smart guy - but even you must realize that that's not a smart conclusion. why are you dumbing down your own stats to yourself?

- Why don't you even flinch at the comparables you used for Matthews ELC ppg literally had double to triple the PP time? Why are you pretending that front offices and agents will also pretend that it's irrelevant?

- does it even bother you that the contract comparisons you are using are from a decade ago, when both cap science and performance metrics were wildly different than they are today?

- you are aware of the multitude of other stats available to us, yet you have decided to simply ignore them, and pretend that modern nhl front offices and agents also ignore them. Again, why are you dumbing down your own stats to yourself?

- you know exactly why dubas valued Matthews the way he did, and you also know that Dubas left a precise amount of cap space for mitch Marner - an amount that makes perfect sense based on his value. Why are you pretending you don't know this?

- Again, your consistent presence in NINE mitch Marner threads, all reduced to variations of you dumbing down your own stats to yourself, and finding every media snippet in support of your contention that Matthews is overpaid, is far too much evidence of your obsessive bias for us to pretend otherwise.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

yes marner is a RFA but there are other high profile RFAs still unsigned where are the counter number on threads and still counting?

Where is Point mega thread and still counting?
Where is Laine mega thread and still counting?
Where is Rantanen megathread and still counting?
Where is McAvoy megatherad and still counting?
Where is (fill in the blanks) and still counting?

Marner isn't Gretzky to get such high profile threads. Mainboards turn on leafs fans on a dime for hyping their own players and I see a lot of non-leaf fans in the marner thread;

where are other high profile players' threads that we are counting?

I believe the theory is all agents are waiting on the Marner contract to be signed.
There are countless posts on HF Jets about Laine and Connor.
There have been several main board threads about trades for Laine or Connor.
So taking into account that all the other players / agents hypothetically are waiting for this to be resolved first and then multiply that by the number of Leaf fans / haters and you get way too many posts about Marner.

For what it's worth I hope he signs a lower value contract.

 

[Seanaconda]

The exact same thing that has caused a mitch Marner RFA thread to be 9 threads long in August, when no other RFA even has a thread.

HF's hilarious Leafs Derangement Syndrome.

I would much rather argue rantanens 11 per contract tbh but this is the only one that is around .

Point will get some stupid Tampa deal the day before training camp so he's not worth talking about till he signs and everyone says steal

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

So we have:

- this media and agent talk is different than that media and agent talk because you agree with it

- the leafs have a "player friendly salary structure"....which of course is simply a new euphemism for "Auston Matthews is Overpaid". In reality, the leafs cap situation is airtight, with a perfect amount available to pay Marner exactly what he deserves, with the leafs icing one of the elite talent teams in the league, with zero bad contracts.

- your own statistical analysis, which you spent a good deal of time putting together, literally comes down to a conclusion that points per game is the only useful measure to evaluate contracts on. You seem like a smart guy - but even you must realize that that's not a smart conclusion. why are you dumbing down your own stats to yourself?

- Why don't you even flinch at the comparables you used for Matthews ELC ppg literally had double to triple the PP time? Why are you pretending that front offices and agents will also pretend that it's irrelevant?

- does it even bother you that the contract comparisons you are using are from a decade ago, when both cap science and performance metrics were wildly different than they are today?

- you are aware of the multitude of other stats available to us, yet you have decided to simply ignore them, and pretend that modern nhl front offices and agents also ignore them. Again, why are you dumbing down your own stats to yourself?

- you know exactly why dubas valued Matthews the way he did, and you also know that Dubas left a precise amount of cap space for mitch Marner - an amount that makes perfect sense based on his value. Why are you pretending you don't know this?

- Again, your consistent presence in NINE mitch Marner threads, all reduced to variations of you dumbing down your own stats to yourself, and finding every media snippet in support of your contention that Matthews is overpaid, is far too much evidence of your obsessive bias for us to pretend otherwise.

You are using straw man arguments over and over again. I have already explained to you why there is much more evidence that Toronto has a player friendly salary structure than there ever was that there would be offer sheets. The comparison you are trying to make is between apples and oranges and I've clearly explained why.

The player friendly salary structure stretches further than Auston Matthews. I also think it's funny that you say there are zero bad contracts on a team that is paying Cody Ceci $4.5M, but that would be getting a bit off-topic.

My own statistical analysis doesn't come to the conclusion that P/GP is the only useful measure on which to evaluate contracts. That is yet another straw man argument. I never said that, and I also showed that I clearly don't believe that when I used data from Evolving Hockey's contract projections as well, which account for far more data than simply points per game. However, I used points per game specifically to show that when paying for points per game, the 3 other centers who scored 40 goals on their ELC are actually pretty close, where Matthews is on a player-friendly island ahead of them.

Double and triple PP time is an exaggeration; nobody played anywhere near triple the PP time, and only Malkin played at least double the PP time. (As expressed by PP TOI/GP.) I also haven't flinched at this; that's another straw man. I've mentioned that if it is used when comparing Matthews to other players like Staal/Malkin/Stamkos, then it should be also used when comparing Marner to Patrick Kane. And I've pointed out that while PP time is lesser, 5-on-5 scoring rates are higher than they were back then.

These comparisons are coming from an era where top players actually received a larger percentage of the cap than they do today. In fact, if you compared him to these players based on a metric such as pay relative to the rest of the NHL, Matthews comes in looking as though he is paid even higher than Malkin, Staal, and Stamkos. For example, in the first years of their contracts, Malkin's cap hit was 2nd in the NHL, Stamkos' cap hit was 7th, in the NHL, and Staal's was 40th. (Though it appears CapFriendly is missing a few of these contracts.) However, I do understand that it is difficult to compare contracts from so long ago, and I wish we had more recent comparables; I will be curious to see what the other modern day ELC 40 goal scorer Brayden Point is paid.

You are using yet another straw man by assuming that I am ignoring the more advanced metrics that we have available to us. I am using the statistics that I believe are most closely correlated to pay. I have done research to show that in today's NHL, metrics like points and ice time are still a much larger driving factor behind pay than more advanced metrics such as P/60. I have said on many occasions, in threads that have nothing to do with this, that advanced statistics are still not driving factors behind pay like rudimentary metrics such as points and TOI. (See Neal Pionk)

I believe that you are using another straw man, as you have throughout your entire post, that I am pretending I don't know something, but I'm not even sure what you're pretending I don't know. Yes, I am aware that Dubas has left roughly $10.5M available for Marner. I don't believe that is a number that makes even remotely perfect sense based on his value; in fact, I believe that on an 8-year term, that figure is a significant overpayment for a player of his caliber.

Again, you calling out other people for their obsessive biases is incredibly ironic. I don't know why you keep on doing it, even after I've shown you how wrong you often are because of it. You should just stop doing it.

 

[Seanaconda]

No, they will sign before then but that does not change the fact that waiting on Marner to sign has a high chance of increasing their earnings.

JoeThortonsRooster is not wrong in that there is a general consensus that the Matthew's and Nylander's contracts are player friendly. Nylander's is less of an issue because he will probably grow into it but Matthew's contract is very player friendly because of the term. If it was 8 years then no one would be talking about it.

I agree his cap would be fine on an eight year deal , on a five he has a better contract than mcdavid without the 750 discount and didn't earn it.

The only reason the five may make sense is if they actually have concerns about his shoulders . Otherwise the term is just terrible

 

[hangman005]

Over 1000, Part 10 is here.