Minnesota Wild General Discussion IV

[Digitalbooya]

Sounds like Parise is nearing a return in a couple of weeks. Also sounds like if Nino is out for a bit then it’s either Kunin or Anas coming up from Iowa. Per the Athletic.

 

[Wabit]

Sounds like Parise is nearing a return in a couple of weeks. Also sounds like if Nino is out for a bit then it’s either Kunin or Anas coming up from Iowa. Per the Athletic.

Just think, Anas, Ennis, and Spurgeon, all on the ice at the same time.

Anas has the hotter hand right now: 6 game goal streak, 9 game points streak. Kunin is getting on the scoreboard about every other game since the calendar flipped to December: 4g/2a (6p) in 11 games, not multi-point games to inflate the total.

I'm just stats watching. I haven't seen any of the games.

 

[Wabit]

I caught up with Santa a little bit ago and got him to share the Wild's Santa lists.

Parise: good health.
Koivu: the net to be 3" bigger on each side.
Granlund: to play for Finland in the Olympics this year.
Cullen: nothing, he's at home with the kids and just won the last 2 Cups. He didn't want to be greedy.
Zucker: sleep.
Dumba: A nice new contract for x-mas in July.
Spurgeon: to get to keep playing with his best buddy Ennis.
Ennis: grow 4" and gain 25lbs of muscle (same thing he's had on his list since he was 12).
Foligno: a chemistry book .
Suter: to have Spurgeon back as his partner. And if he wasn't good enough for that getting Brodin back as a consolation prize.
Brodin: some Swedish thing I've never heard of.
Nino: World Peace, or an unlimited bag of holding. (go big or go home I guess)
Stewart: a punching bag.
Staal: his little brothers around.
Coyle: a working stick.
Mitchell: for the Wild not to notice he's still with the club in MN.
Winnik: a better agent.
Stalock: to be a UFA at the end of the season
Dubnyk: a golden horseshoe to replace the one he lost last March
Prosser: to get back to the Wild from the Blues.
Olofsson: play in more games.
Reilly: play in more games.
GMCF: to get a contract extension.
BB: win the Stanley Cup

 

[Lapa]

Brodin: some Swedish thing I've never heard of.

Surströmming - Wikipedia

 

[Wabit]

Surströmming - Wikipedia

That looks better than lutfisk...

 

[Al Lagoon]

Wild are looking pretty fugly at the moment - gotta say, I've come on board with the Ennis and Foligno are rubbish train. Giveaway machines are they.

 

[SomethingGeneric]

THE. WILD. WILL. NOT. BE. REBUILDING. STOP. WITH. THE. NONSENSE. AND. MERRY. CHRISTMAS.

 

[2Pair]

What do you guys think about a rebuild?

 

[Wabit]

What do you guys think about a rebuild?

I think it's a couple years away (19-20 TDL). Koivu, Granny, Spurgeon, Coyle will all be on expiring UFA contracts then. They have too many players with term and high salaries to try it now.

20-21 could be a lockout season. Maybe there are a couple of no-cap buyouts for Parise/Suter. Nino, Brodin, Dub, and maybe Foligno could all be sold off as rentals. A complete tear down, Buffalo style, could be done then.

Rebuilds are hard to gauge. AZ, Buffalo, Oilers, have had years of bad hockey. Tor did okay, but they were just bad hockey teams trying to compete most of those years. Add in teams like Det and Nuks that will also be in the middle of a rebuild and there could be 8-10 teams in the race to the bottom.

Roll with what they have for a couple more years, but don't trade away any picks. Maybe dump a Zucker/Dumba for a good draft pick and start stocking the farm now so there is something to work with in the system. Then keep those prospects in the minors as long as possible. I dunno.

This current team is hard to do anything with that would make them either really bad, or really good.

 

[BagHead]

Honestly, I think it's not going to happen until the team becomes so bad that they're forced into it. Like Wabit, I also think they're at least two years off. We'll have a lot better of an idea after next season if it's in the cards, but having Koivu, Granlund, Spurgeon and Coyle reaching UFA is going to be a huge deal. Then the next season, Foligno, Brodin and Dubnyk reach UFA status as well. Will any of them re-sign, and if so, which ones do we actually want to re-sign? Certainly some of those players won't be re-signed, and some will, but the ones that will are going to be pricey. It'll be interesting to see what the cap does in between now and then. I think a rebuild will largely depend on how good the team is as we get closer to that time. We have some prospects that will be coming of age around then, and we'll have Granlund, Coyle, Brodin, etc. in their late 20's as veteran presences. I'm not sure if it makes me happy or sad to say that this team probably won't be so bad that a tank is obviously necessary for years to come.

I mean, at that time the lineup may, theoretically, look something like:

Zucker - JEE - Granlund
Kaprizov - Coyle - Nino
Greenway - someone - Kunin
Parise - someone - someone

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Dumba
Seeler/Soucy- Olofsson? We really need a RHD. Ah, Belpedio!

Kahkonen/Michalek

It's probably not a cup winning roster, but it's also probably not a roster that should obviously tank (I mean, it's a relatively young roster at that point, and decently talented, but not supremely so). It seems we're on a collision course with the obstacle that always obstructs Minnesota teams from championships, mediocrity.

 

[DANOZ28]

if we're gonna be bad lets be real bad and get a top 10 pick that hopefully adds some real talent to this club. no late season rallies just to make the 8th playoff spot. im tired of this @@@@!

 

[HollaHaula]

A rebuild is likely needed. The issue is that management and ownership likely do not want to do it. I mean who wants to suck and see a half empty arena every home game? The flip side is struggling in mediocrity will also drive the fan base away and not be fun anyways. We're currently San Jose-lite in that we can get to the playoffs (maybe not this year...) but can't do any real damage.

So, do we bite the bullet within the next 1-2 seasons or try to ride it out for the next 4-5? Personally, I would rebuild as soon as possible. A lot of good players on our team will be needing contracts over the next few seasons. However, I don't see any of these players as anyone we could legitimately build around. We have mostly all complementary pieces but no foundational pieces (dang I sound like Jim Benning now. Hopefully, I'm smarter...). I'd trade these players off to get good value in return (picks/prospects).

If a rebuild is done right, it can only take a couple of seasons. But, everyone has to stay commited. It's when management tries to fast-track by overpaying in trades to get an good player or offers a bad contract in FA is when a rebuild can go south.

Edit: With regards to our situation, I would also probably clean out the scouting department before I would start trusting them to evaluate high-end potential players. Because they have not done a very good job up to this point.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I think a big trade is far more likely than a rebuild.

 

[Grover]

A rebuild is needed but Leopold wants to win now so Fletcher will keep trading away draft picks for rentals and keep overpaying mediocre players

 

[2Pair]

Jesus, it was a joke. They don't need a rebuild, and they wouldn't do it even if they did. What they need is to get healthy first and foremost, and they could probably use a new GM.

 

[57special]

Wild need to reload, not rebuild. If they don't start looking better by mid January, then Fletcher better start getting his thinking cap on.

-Suter, Koivu, and Parise have NMC's.

- No replacement for Doobs...gotta keep him.

-Prosser can be moved for a 4-7th rounder, depending on how desperate trading partner is. Murphy can take his place.

- moving Brodin or Dumba only makes sense if they are getting equal value back for an actual player as opposed to a draft pick or prospect.

- Love Spurgeon, but Fletcher might have to consider moving him if he gets excellent value. Doesn't he have a NTC?

- Staal. See Spurgeon.

- Reilly/Olofsson. Don't see the point of moving them.

- NINO, Granlund, Coyle, Zucker. Core forwards. Only sell if bundled for a better piece. Each has a value that the team needs.

- Cullen. Send him back to PIT if they'll have him. His use is as a final piece to a puzzle...we ain't that.

- Ennis, Foligno....good luck with that.

- Winnik trade him and get a replacement from Iowa.

- Stewart. See Winnik, though at the rate he is getting paid he is nice to have around.

 

[Wabit]

Jesus, it was a joke. They don't need a rebuild, and they wouldn't do it even if they did. What they need is to get healthy first and foremost, and they could probably use a new GM.

I said the same thing during the offseason when Granny signed a 3 yr deal. The roster is really setup for a 3 year window, Koivu's deal helps reinforces that thought. Then it can be blown up, retooled, or continue with what they have. I'd say get a new GM for sure if they were going into a rebuild mode. Maybe get a new GM if they want to retool and stay as a fringe team. Keep GMCF if they want to continue with what they have.

The scouting department has been doing a decent job the last few years. They haven't wiffed on their 1st rounders, and haven't had many 2nds and 3rds to work with. 4th and later picks are mostly guesses for any NHL talent.

I do think it was a big gamble with the Iowa team makeup this year. The culture needed to be changed from the tire fire it has been since it's inception. So going with an older lineup with NHL (fringe) players seems to be working so far. If a winning mindset carries over to next year and beyond then it can only help the entire Wild franchise.

 

[2Pair]

I said the same thing during the offseason when Granny signed a 3 yr deal. The roster is really setup for a 3 year window, Koivu's deal helps reinforces that thought. Then it can be blown up, retooled, or continue with what they have. I'd say get a new GM for sure if they were going into a rebuild mode. Maybe get a new GM if they want to retool and stay as a fringe team. Keep GMCF if they want to continue with what they have.

The scouting department has been doing a decent job the last few years. They haven't wiffed on their 1st rounders, and haven't had many 2nds and 3rds to work with. 4th and later picks are mostly guesses for any NHL talent.

I do think it was a big gamble with the Iowa team makeup this year. The culture needed to be changed from the tire fire it has been since it's inception. So going with an older lineup with NHL (fringe) players seems to be working so far. If a winning mindset carries over to next year and beyond then it can only help the entire Wild franchise.

Anybody and everybody that was on board with the Buffalo trade needs to be fired. Full stop. That's a move that should cost people their jobs. I'm not even certain that the next guy will do a better job than Fletcher has, but his time here should be over.

 

[Wabit]

Wild need to reload, not rebuild. If they don't start looking better by mid January, then Fletcher better start getting his thinking cap on.

-Suter, Koivu, and Parise have NMC's.

- No replacement for Doobs...gotta keep him.

-Prosser can be moved for a 4-7th rounder, depending on how desperate trading partner is. Murphy can take his place.

- moving Brodin or Dumba only makes sense if they are getting equal value back for an actual player as opposed to a draft pick or prospect.

- Love Spurgeon, but Fletcher might have to consider moving him if he gets excellent value. Doesn't he have a NTC?

- Staal. See Spurgeon.

- Reilly/Olofsson. Don't see the point of moving them.

- NINO, Granlund, Coyle, Zucker. Core forwards. Only sell if bundled for a better piece. Each has a value that the team needs.

- Cullen. Send him back to PIT if they'll have him. His use is as a final piece to a puzzle...we ain't that.

- Ennis, Foligno....good luck with that.

- Winnik trade him and get a replacement from Iowa.

- Stewart. See Winnik, though at the rate he is getting paid he is nice to have around.

-Spurgeon has a 20 team NT list this year and 10 team NT list the next 2 seasons. Even with those lists I think he could be moved without much hassle. Just his skillset and position are in high demand except for teams stacked the RD's (Jets come to mind).

-Prosser might get a pick back in return, or he might just pass through waivers. The extra year on his contract could turn off teams from wanting him. And he's probably going to play better in MN than anywhere else. His familiarity with everything helps a lot here.

-I don't see Brodin as being moved. There just isn't a top-4 LD in the system right now. Dumba/Spurgeon I see being moved first with Murphy being brought up to replace them.

-Winnik. I have no problem with keeping him. He's a league minimum contract that doesn't hurt the team either on the ice or as a pressbox FWD. If the Wild are sellers then ship him off for a 3rd/4th. Cullen and Stewie fall into the same boat. No harm in keeping them if the Wild are in contention, trade them for something if they aren't.

-Staal. If they trade him it signals going into rebuild mode, unless a 1/2C is gotten in another deal. I do think he could be on the block next season's TDL.

-Reilly/Olofsson. One of them could be part of a package deal somewhere, or for a mid pick on their own. They are too good to pass through waivers, but they both need game experience, not being in the pressbox for them to reach their potential.

-Coyle's disappearing acts are getting old. I could see him traded in a lateral type of move for a cheaper 3C.

A Coyle+Dumba package cold get something substantial. Both have warts, but their potential makes it easy to overlook their flaws.

 

[Wabit]

Anybody and everybody that was on board with the Buffalo trade needs to be fired. Full stop. That's a move that should cost people their jobs. I'm not even certain that the next guy will do a better job than Fletcher has, but his time here should be over.

How do you fire the owner?

Pommer has been a hot mess lately in Buffalo (2g/1a, -10 in his last 21 games). Scandella is their best defensive d-man (there isn't much else there), but he was a $4m 3rd pair guy here. I still think Scandella got his market value. I'm not a fan of Ennis' contract, but he's not a awful player.

Ennis and Foligno will each end up with 20-30p this season. Those are 3rd line numbers, but both are overpayed to varying degrees.

Simple breakdown of points (all separate searches, so the numbers might not add up) for FWDs from last year (these are pretty consistent for the last 4 years).
90-1: 20g+, 29a+, 50p+ (1st line)
180-91: 14g, 18a, 32p (2nd line)
270-181: 8g, 11a, 19p (3rd line)

If the Wild players were to continue scoring at their current paces, and be healthy, the rest of the season: (ranking lines by points, not actual lineup)
1st line: Staal (32p, 70p), Zucker (32g, 57p), Granny (17g, 55p)
2nd line: Koivu (11g, 36p), Nino (26g, 41p), Coyle (7g, 40p- smaller sample size)
3rd line: Stewie (18g, 28p), Winnik (7g, 22p), Ennis (14g, 21p), Foligno (7g, 22p)- General conscientious is these are all 4th liners or should be in the pressbox never seeing the light of day.
4th line: Cullen (5g, 16p), Mitchell (11g, 18p- smaller sample size), JEE (3g, 13p), Kunin (7.5g, 15p-smaller sample size)

Team is on pace for 228g (would have been 15th last season). 1st and 2nd lines are low to mid quality. 3rd and 4th lines are either: 2 low quality 3rd lines or 2 good 4th lines.

Parise is the big question mark. If/when he comes back can he produce at a ~20g/50p pace (same as last season)?

 

[Wabit]

Looking ahead a bit.
7 of the next 10 games are at home, 6 are against Divisional opponents, then it's the AS break. 14 standings points is what they need from this stretch. 6 of the games are against teams are even or worse in the standings. Chances to gain 4p on Nashville, and 2p on each of Avs, Dallas, Jets and Hawks within the Division.

It's kind of odd there is only 10 divisional games after the AS break. 4 of those come in a 5 game stretch at the end of march. A 3 game in 4 day West coast swing to end the season (Ducks, LA, Sharks). 10 of the last 12 against teams currently in the Playoffs (EDM and AZ) Not a friendly end to the season at all.

 

[PuckInTheNards]

This team has been on downward trajectory since the mid-point of last season. The only real question is whether to hang on as best you can and hope we can get some help from a prospect or a free agent (Kaprizov, Greenway - maybe Kunin or Eriksson Ek?) over the next few years or start selling now and try to rebuild. Blech.

 

[Northerner]

The Mild are a joke they will finish 2nd to last in the West! They need to clean house and start a rebuild.

They're in the playoffs today, spending half of the first half of the season without an entire top-3 forwards missing.


This is par for the course - this overreaction crowd that can't accept that we aren't even half way through the season yet, we easily could/will go on a strong winning streak, and likely are going to finish anywhere between 2-6 in the West.

I mean, last year no one had us pegged for 2nd in the West, and we did it. Long winning streak. Got comfortable.


Just cool your jets, man. Settle down. Take a breather. For real.

 

[BigT2002]

Because it is fun to spar with you every once and awhile always makes for fun discussion!

-Spurgeon has a 20 team NT list this year and 10 team NT list the next 2 seasons. Even with those lists I think he could be moved without much hassle. Just his skillset and position are in high demand except for teams stacked the RD's (Jets come to mind).

They are not moving him regardless. He has become a great "feel good" story for the team and something for the GM to hang his hat on for finding the diamonds in the rough basically. The only way I could see him going is if HE demands the trade...which it sounds like he is pretty much rooted in here with the wife and kids.

-Prosser might get a pick back in return, or he might just pass through waivers. The extra year on his contract could turn off teams from wanting him. And he's probably going to play better in MN than anywhere else. His familiarity with everything helps a lot here.

No one is wanting Prosser either. The only team that has sniffed for him has been St. Louis...and even then I still wonder if that was more Yeo knowing he had no problem riding the Press Box and not complaining unlike many other vets out there.

-I don't see Brodin as being moved. There just isn't a top-4 LD in the system right now. Dumba/Spurgeon I see being moved first with Murphy being brought up to replace them.

Honestly out of the Top 4, he is probably the one that could get moved. Still young, has an upside and many teams would give up some decent picks (albeit IMO, this org still doesn't know what to do with them properly). He really has no affiliation with this state at all, unlike the other 2 above you have mentioned. I could see a team like Detroit and the Rangers going all in for him. Heck, maybe even Washington next year if they lose Carlson.

-Winnik. I have no problem with keeping him. He's a league minimum contract that doesn't hurt the team either on the ice or as a pressbox FWD. If the Wild are sellers then ship him off for a 3rd/4th. Cullen and Stewie fall into the same boat. No harm in keeping them if the Wild are in contention, trade them for something if they aren't.

Agreed. He is playing good and IMO out of the 3 you mentioned in this piece is probably the most "stable." We all know why Cullen is here. Stewart is gone after this year regardless.

-Staal. If they trade him it signals going into rebuild mode, unless a 1/2C is gotten in another deal. I do think he could be on the block next season's TDL.

I don't think it signals the rebuild mode, but it will signal they have given up on the season. He won't fetch you anything other than probably a 3rd or 4th rounder OR maybe a fringe NHL, but above-mediocre AHL player. Owners and GMs know that the Wild are tight against the cap. There is no leverage for the team this year.

-Reilly/Olofsson. One of them could be part of a package deal somewhere, or for a mid pick on their own. They are too good to pass through waivers, but they both need game experience, not being in the pressbox for them to reach their potential.

I could see it being one of them as well...and most likely Reilly. I can't imagine he is all too happy after taking the Wild over some of the other suitors we were seeing during his FA bid and not getting reliable ice time. It also signals to many of the same facet (maybe even Greenway??) that this team cannot be held to their word. First Folin, now him?

-Coyle's disappearing acts are getting old. I could see him traded in a lateral type of move for a cheaper 3C.

Agreed. Not amused by it if they could package him with Brodin, you may actually get someone who could help them team on the offensive side. Especially considering Koivu's lack of speed and now proneness to accumulate PIMs.

A Coyle+Dumba package cold get something substantial. Both have warts, but their potential makes it easy to overlook their flaws.

See above. I don't see them moving Dumba at this point. They'll wait it out until he either demands a trade or works his way to the dog house of bottom 6 pairing.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Staal gets way, way, WAY more than a 3rd/4th rounder.