MoeTheHobo
Registered User
- Jan 24, 2017
- 859
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So The Wild is actually one a decent winning streak atm :O
Nice to have a backup goalie that can get the job done
Nice to have a backup goalie that can get the job done
Minnesota Wild General Discussion IV
- Thread starter Lapa
- Start date
- Status
If we stay hot and Winnipeg stumbles a little, clawing our way out of WildCardVille isn't out of the question. Unfortunately, cooling off can drop us pretty low pretty quickly.
Nino Noderreiter
Registered User
****Disclaimer...super long post. I do these once in awhile because writing helps me collect my thoughts. A busy schedule hasn't allowed me to watch the Wild much so in order to get an idea of what's going on and the state of the roster and how I should think about the team, what are the team's strengths, where are development opportunities going forward, etc.
I like to write down my thoughts as I do a deep dive on the roster. This one isn't going to be all that analytical, but it's a bunch of words about the team we all love! Read if you'd like...comment...correct me...or don't!
Regardless, this is the perspective of someone who's very familiar with the team, but hasn't really tuned in much this season and was a little bit distant during all the comings and going of the offseason and the new additions(studying abroad, working 40+ hours a week and college, plus a 20 credit course-load).
Basically that means a lot of my opinions and ideas about players aren't going to be off of the 30 game sample we've seen this season--which is good and bad. Good because not watching the ups and downs of a season can eliminate recency bias and maybe be a more level-headed analysis of players who are struggling, but will likely improve. Bad because if recent trends become the rule, I could be missing regression and have blind spots there.
So with that disclaimer here goes nothing...(Going to be long folks).
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Chuck Fletcher and this offseason:
To begin, I'd like to say a few words about Chuck Fletcher so you know more about my perspective and potential bias's which will come from my opinion on the current roster construction and views of the man behind the curtain
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I'm one of the biggest Fletcher fans there is. I totally understand the idea and thought process behind the moves Fletcher made and I think in general Fletcher is an absolute wizard. You can always judge outcomes in hindsight as an armchair GM, but I don't think that's fair. I think if you've got a GM that you can understand the thought process and it's a good one--they're going to make better moves than not.
I think the only thing you can really ding Fletcher for is that the Wild haven't been able to develop a star offensive PPG+ talent. That's the biggest thing they've been hurt by as they consistently have teams that play better "hockey", but lose because teams they face (the Blackhawks) have guys that can make 1 or 2 individual plays a game that can negate 55+ min of being outplayed.
However, I think it's hard to knock a GM for that as the only real ways (other than some degrees of luck) to develop that kind of player is to pick in the top 5 (and probably in the top 2 or 3) or get one in FA. Guys like that don't become FA's often and the Wild have been too good of a team (generally) to pick in the top 5 (often).
They have had a few possible opportunities to make a trade, draft a guy like that, or sign a guy and haven't quite been able to get one, but it's hard. And Fletcher's ability to build the defensive depth the Wild have been able to build (can't keep all of it) in Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin, Scandella, Dumba, Olofsson, Rielly, Folin, Belpido, etc. through a combination of smart trades, free agent signings, and drafting speak to his ability to identify talent.
Further, signing or making smart trades for Granlund, Zucker, Nino, Coyle, Haula, Pominville and even guys like Vanek speak well of Fletcher as well.
Consistently he's been able to make splashes at the deadline or in free agency and although he does trade quite a few picks he's been able to consistently get value in later rounds to once again replenish our prospect list after the previously named guys have graduated in Tuch, Greenway, Kunin, Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov, Solokov, and more also speak to his ability to draft forward talent.
I'm 100+ pro Fletcher and think he's among the best in the business. However, I think losing Haula is one of his biggest mistakes. I understand the Scandella and Pominville moves 100% and although I don't think they make us a better team immediately as of now, I think they will be additions by subtraction going forward regardless of their return hauls. Haula is a player that I really hate to lose and I think he was quietly or maybe not so quietly among the Wild's most important players last year playing the role that he did. Further, I do also question the Folin move...that one I get a little bit more because of Rielly and Olofsson however the Wild signed Quincey for similiar money and haven't really committed any further to the development of Olofsson and Rielly (partly or maybe largely due to inconsistency and a level of play below what an optimistic outlook might have hoped for).
I would have rather had let Vegas keep the pick and select another prospect in order to have them select Scandella or in some way, shape, or form--but I guess looking at it...you would have rather lost Haula than any of the other forwards so I guess that's really just a tough situation in the expansion draft. The only real argument without a ton of familiarity into why the moves were made as they were, is that if Fletcher planned on trading Scandella and I think it was obvious that he did. It seems like with some creativity the Wild could have kept Haula and gotten Vegas to take Scandella. Although, I guess to Fletcher's benefit...using Scandella...Fletcher was able to unload Pominville's contract as well and take flyers on Ennis's return to form and a solid depth piece in Foligno. However to me on the surface, and maybe there wasn't but it seems like Fletcher could have found a way to keep Haula.
However, to be 17-11-2 with injuries at various points to Nino, Coyle, Granlund, Parise, Foligno, Spurgeon, and now Dubnyk speaks volumes to the depth the Wild have and they're ability to grind out games and compete despite not having their full lineup on a team that relies on depth, 3 scoring lines, and contributions from everyone to win instead of elite individual talent.
The offseason moves made neccesary by the Vegas expansion draft outside of Fletcher's control was always going to hurt the Wild more-so than just about any other team. To Fletcher's credit he navigated it about as deftly as possible and figured out how to unload a solid-chunk of salary in order to keep the best pieces of the core together and position the Wild roster-construction-wise in a position to retain those pieces while opening up room for young players deserving an opportunity to begin to crack the lineup.
Losing Folin/Haula/Scandella/Pominville was always going to make the Wild a worse team immediately to begin this season. However giving potential development opportunities over the course of the season to Dumba/Eriksson Ek/Luke Kunin/Gustav Olofsson/Mike Rielly/Carson Soucy/Nick Seeler/etc. and unloading contracts that will allow the Wild to retain their studs going forward seems like solid manuevering to make the best of a bad situation and put the Wild in a position that's best for them long-term--basically rebuilding on the fly.
Simply put, despite slightly disappointing play from Dumba/Eriksson Ek/Kunin/Olofsson/Rielly thus far ... I think you could to see some positive regression and development from all of them going forward and into the second half of the season.
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Going-forward this season
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Keys to improvement
1. Staying healthy and getting Parise back offensively and Spurgeon defensively is the biggest key for the rest of the season.
2. Consistent play and improvement from new additions offensively such as Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno would go along way for this Wild Team
3. Continuing to stick with Dumba/Olofsson/Eriksson Ek/and also Kunin and letting them play through their struggles is going to have to be something the Wild live with. Their eventual record this year will be determined by the amount of development and improvement these players can show. Regardless, the Wild in 2018 and beyond will benefit from this...
4. Getting consistent goal-tending play out of Dubnyk, Alex Stalock, or whomever the Wild are putting between between the net is key. The Wild's defensive play has dropped off and sub-par starts for their standards from the top 4, injuries, losing Scandella and Folin, and the inability for Olofsson and Rielly to establish themselves are responsible for a decent chunk of the the drop-off. However, some of these issues are certainly amplified because the Wild have been getting average to below-average goaltending instead of elite to borderline-elite like in years past. (This is a symbiotic relationship though I do realize)
I think post all-star break with a healthy Parise, Spurgeon, and improved goalie play from either a healthy Dubnyk or Stalock...the Wild could be poised to make a little bit of a run if they can continue to stay in contention. Further, I think there is a lot of upside potential for the Wild if they can get healthy and see development from prospects like Kunin and Eriksson Ek--which they very well could and should be expecting--and acquisitions like Ennis can get going.
Offensively, getting Parise back will go along way to helping the Wild's problems offensively. He's not the player he was however he's still a great offensive player around and in-front of the net. No longer can he carry a line (most likely) however I think there's a number of different ways you could incorporate Parise into your top 9 that allows the Wild to field a much more competent 3rd line. For any NHL team, but especially the Wild 3 scoring lines is extremely important and 3 lines that on any given night could be considered your "1a, 1b, or 1c" or at least 2a 2b.
Personally, I would probably play Parise on the 3rd line and give him a role where he's playing solid veteran hockey even strength and getting tons of PP minutes. I think on a per 82 game pace he can still put up 20-25g 25-30ast numbers if you can get enough skill around him, even from a 3rd line.
Getting Ennis going and getting him to pre-concussion levels of 203 points in 335 games...which is a 50 point (21g - 29 apg) per 82 game pace will be key for the Wild going forward. I think Ennis has struggled to find a spot in the lineup, but I think some of that has to do with the fact that Ennis needs to play more with skill players. I think injuries to some extent have prohibited Ennis from being able to consistently do that. A healthy Parise playing on the wing-across from Ennis would go along way to allowing Ennis to play with the kind of offensive skill that better complements his skill-game.
It's important to play Ennis and Parise with a C who can drive possession and be responsible defensively. Not looking at which line is which I think playing Koivu with those 2 would complement them. Another option would be Coyle if you're looking for more speed from that line. Point is, you've got options.
If the Wild can get Parise back and begin to roll what looks like 3 scoring lines with...
Nino-Staal-_____
Zucker-__-Granlund
Parise-_____ - _____
With some combination of Koivu ,Coyle, Eriksson Ek. and Ennis in those blank spots (Boudreau will have to figure out how to do that) will give the Wild 3 lines that all have guys who can score and produce offensively while also holding their own on the defensive side of things.
I think it would be worth trying different combinations of Koivu centering either of those two-wing pairings (I would see if Ennis and Parise can work or if they are too small). You have a couple of different things you can try with Ek and Coyle at C and W as well. Regardless, I think there's enough offensive talent at all 3 lines and a number of different things you can try.
I would start with: Nino/Staal/Coyle + Zucker/Eriksson Ek/Granlund + Parise/Koivu/Ennis
Solidifying your top 9 makes your depth look a lot better. I think the roster construction is intriguing, especially having Foligno, Winnik, and Stewart gives the Wild the flexibility to match-up physically and insert those guys in against heavily physical teams as well which is also important and something the Wild have struggled with in the past.
The ability to switch out skill/speed guys in Mitchell/Cullen/Ennis with Foligno/Winnik/Stewart in the bottom 6 who are 6'2-6'3 big bodies that can play a more physical game bodes well for the Wild going forward. I think this gives them a lot of flexibility to play a more speed and skill game or a more physical game if needed. Again, this will require some ingenuity by Boudreau.
Conclusion
I think the Wild's roster is constructed nicely to (if things go as planned) compete for a playoff seed this season while allowing young players to develop. The biggest addition will be Parise's return. Parise's return no matter the line combo will allow Eriksson Ek and Ennis to play with a lot more skill, which should help there games as well.
Further, this depth should allow the Wild to play matchups and it will make their 4th line a lot better too with some combination of Foligno/Cullen/Mitchell/Winnik/Stewart.
Offensively going forward (past this season)
Even with aging vets in Koivu, Parise, and Staal...the Wild are in a very good spot to have a number of talented forwards developing over the next 1-2-3 years to replace those 3.
I personally think as soon as next year, development from Kunin and Eriksson Ek and the potential of Greenway being NHL-ready should push Parise and Koivu onto a "3rd line together" although really more of a 2a/2b situation.
I think as soon as next season, the Wild should be trying to slot Eriksson Ek and Kunin in the remaining top 9 spots.
Nino/Staal/Coyle Zucker/Eriksson Ek/Granlund Parise/Koivu//Kunin
It seems like these line combos will work every well, Eriksson Ek's shot, speed down the wing, two-way game, and high IQ passing ability, complements Granlund and Zucker and them playing on the rush and with speed.
While, Kunin, Parise, and Koivu will likely play a very north-south game that involves firing tons of pucks to the net and crashing the boards. This line should be extremely solid defensively and also complement eachother's gamestyles well.
Further, Nino, Coyle, and Staal will be able to play a big bodied bruising cycling style kind of similiar to ANA and Boudreau's famed Getzlaf-Perry-Ryan lines of old.
I think that you can play all 3 lines between 15-17 minutes even strength and give certain guys PP time and PK time in order to get everyone enough minutes. It's more of a 1a/1b/1c type of situation ideally at even strength with each line having different skill-sets and play-styles.
The Wild should also be in a position where in 2 or 3 years when Koivu and Staal's contracts end. Kunin and Ek will have development far enough to be top 6 contributors and Greenway, Kaprizov, and others will be ready to step in.
That means, Fletcher has put the Wild in an extremely good position to set themselves up not only this year and the next, but for the forseable future and the timeline is great for the Wild's next group of young studs to transition to the NHL and then begin to developing bigger roles just as this current group of Wild talent did to Koivu, Parise, Pominville, etc before.
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Big kudos to Fletcher. While, on the surface, his roster moves this offseason could be seen as questionable. Fletcher was able to manuever the expansion draft and unload contracts in order to put the Wild in position to be its most successful in the long term and keep its top young core pieces (Granlund/Zucker/Nino/Coyle/Spurgeon/Brodin/Dumba) and also surround those pieces with its most essential vets (Staal/Koivu/Parise/Suter) and in a position to retain and keep all of that talent going forward.
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Defensively Now and In The Future
I think the Wild is still in good position defensively to have a strong defensive-core for the long-term despite a drop in play to begin this season.
Elite Top 4
Ryan Suter: I think Suter's game should age well throughout his contract even if he transitions into a purely defensive positional guy and despite some fans not seeing the value Suter brings to an NHL team.
Jonas Brodin: I think Brodin is an absolute stud and can be rock solid defensively on either a 1st or 2nd pair and definitely an elite 2nd unit player to anchor that pairing and he's extremely young.
Jared Spurgeon: I am of the belief that Spurgeon is one of the best 15 or so defenseman in the game and his ability to move the puck well and play solid positional defense makes him a huge threat both offensively and defensively. Suter and Spurgeon is a great 1st pairing despite them not playing quite up to their potential this year.
Matt Dumba: This one is more controversial, but I also am a big believer in Matt Dumba. He's been inconsistent this year and hasn't quite taken the jump that many were hoping, especially defensively. However, his skating and puck-moving ability has always made Wild teams with him on the ice great offensively with tons of possession and zone-time. I think he makes glaring mistakes defensively and that will cost you a game here or there, but generally I think being a defender that plays the kind of game he plays means that his mistakes are glaring and seared into your brain, but generally, despite the TOs, gaffs, and defensive lapses he's an absolute plus to a team and will continue to develop into a player that will help you win games and a great 2nd pairing defender with Brodin as well as a good player on the PP.
He hasn't been quite as good this season, somewhat reflected by his own play, but also somewhat reflected by lackluster team play and goalie play below what the Wild are capable of--there's a reason that Dumba, despite his gaffes, defensive lapses, and TOs that have always been there, is +25 for his career.
Dumba despite not playing great, is on pace for 10g and 30 ast and 40 points defensively. I think he's capable of approached 15-20g and 35-40 ast in his prime and scoring 50-60 pts while the Wild with him on the ice get a lot of offensive zone time and possession provided that Dumba is getting 2nd-pairing minutes and a team anchors a PP around his mobility, offensive-instincts, and shot.
Even then, I think, with a hot streak this season, and optimistic projections Dumba could approach 15g and 35 ast this season and score around 45 points. Paired with Brodin long-term, almost the perfect complement for Dumba will make that 2nd pairing for the Wild a force provided that the Wild can get goalie play that's closer to top 5 than it is to league average. With average goalie play, any defense and defenders, no matter how skilled will look average. Some of average goalie play can be attributed to defensive lapses, however Dumba's mistakes especially are not anything new and the Wild have been able to have elite defending teams and elite goaltending with those gaffs and with stretches of Dumba in the top 4.
If Dubnyk is declining, the Wild need to start looking at options to get them a goalie that can give them elite or borderline elite play. If they can't get that kind of goal-tending they won't be successful defensively no matter the kind of defense that the Wild surrounds their goalie with. There are very few teams in the NHL that no matter their roster-construction that can succeed with goal-tending that is average to below average.
I think that top 4 combination gives the Wild 4 defenders who should both be here long-term and can be among the leagues best top 2 pairings for the forseable future. Suter and Spurgeon and Brodin and Dumba complement eachothers games well and should be able to be successful in all 3 zones and all facets of the game. These 4 are the key to both the Wild's offense and defense and rightfully so. Further, I think the Wild's roster construction going forward should allow them to be able to retain all 4 long-term--which they should.
Bottom Pairing
With the top 4 in place long term the Wild are in the unique position of being able to focus on building an abundance of riches and focus on developing their #5/#6/#7 rotation long term. Further, I think the Wild have the in-house options available to eventually find the right combination of guys to fill out there bottom pairing.
Christian Folin: I do think the Wild may have miscalculated in letting Christian Folin go, eventually signing Kyle Quincey and looking at other options for a similiar price to which they could have gotten Folin. I think Folin projects to be a protypical bottom-pairing defender for a contending team in terms of his size at 6'3 flashing a little bit of skill offensively and as a puck-mover.
I think Folin is an above-average bottom-pairing defender that can play-up in the case of injuries on the 2nd pairing, can be a rock-solid 3rd pairing defender, and is a player that is cheap-enough that you can transition him between bottom-pairing and the press-box if you've got enough talent or a young-prospect breaks out. At 26, I think he was the kind of role-player on the back-end that the Wild would have benefited from keeping around long-term giving the Wild the ability to have solid production on both sides of the ice from a player on their bottom pairing and giving the Wild the flexibility to develop any defensive prospects as long as possible before they are 100% ready.
However with that being said, I don't think Folin by any means is a guy that the Wild should lose a ton of sleep over. I think the Wild have the players and the talent in-system to replace and outpace his production, however those players don't have the experience nor have they developed the consistency that Folin had developed and thus Folin's departure is one reason the Wild have dropped below their defensive-standard set in previous seasons now.
In-House Options
That being said, I understand the Wild thought they had two players--Gustav Olofsson and Mike Rielly--who were ready or close to ready for a chance to lock down the #6/#7 spots and that they could find a veteran option to fill his defensive and size role at that position. That being said try #1 in Quincy did not work out.
However, I think the Wild do have options in Olofsson and Rielly that are young defenders who should develop into NHL guys--Olofsson especially flashes great potential as a solid-two way defender who can move the puck and is a great skater with some size.
Gustaff Olofsson: The Wild have been especially hurt this season by these players inconsistency and disappointing play from Olofsson especially. However, there is a lot of reason to believe that there should be positive regression going forward. I think Oloffsson's game especially suggests that the Wild have another #4/#5 defender that if you have anchoring a 3rd-unit...suggests a very-strong D-core.
Mike Rielly: I like Rielly's game and I think he'll eventually develop into a solid NHL player because of his skating ability and puck-skills. However, I'm not sure he's got the type of game nor does he bring the physicality that you want out of a bottom-pairing role. However, I think the Wild should still be trying to develop him...he's someone that the Wild should probably look to develop and attempt to trade for assets.
Nate Prosser: Say what you want about Nate Prosser. However his toughness, experience, and the fact that he knows his role make him a solid addition to the Wild for THIS season because he's willing to sit in the press-box and can hold his own when he gets minutes. However, he takes away development time for players with more long-term potential on this roster and it seems like if you are going to play a guy like him it makes losing a guy like Christian Folin even more glaring.
Nick Seeler and Carson Soucy: I think the Wild have a few other players as well that are looking like they are developing into options for the Wild moving forward. To pair with Olofsson, it seems like both Nick Seeler and Carson Soucy are developing into physical-big bodied defensive defenders that should be great guys to have as #6/#7 defenders and will know their role.
Both Seeler and Soucy are never going to be guys that put up many points, but they're both big, physical, and strong and guys that will block a lot of shots and be great role players. Soucy is bigger with a little bit more potential and younger at 23 and Seeler is 24...both are guys that the Wild should be looking to give opportunities too over this season and the next. If they can develop as it looks like they are, these two could form to be almost the perfect #6/#7 tandem.
Ryan Murphy: Ryan Murphy is a former #5 pick and still young at 24 and while he's never lived up to the offensive promise he showed before reaching the pro-game...he's a guy who's a really good skater and can move the puck-around. While undersized and with his lack of development in terms of putting points on the board despite coming in as an offensive defender, he's young enough and has the skills to remake his game into a puck-moving solid bottom-pairing defender if he can develop the positional hockey-skills to play well enough defensively.
History suggests that players such as himself will likely take a little while to develop and transition from the offensive style of play that works well in the minors into a style of game utilized those offensive skills to be more successful in a different role in the NHL. While this likely won't happen, Murphy is another guy with the kind of talent to develop into a #5/#6/#7 defensively.
Louis Belpido: Wild have another guy with a ton of potential in terms of his leadership skills, offensive and puck-moving ability, and skating ability in Louis Belpido who's already captained his college team and juniors team and is putting up PPG numbers (on pace for 13g and 25 assists in 40g) while being a + defensively captaining his college team.
He's 2nd on his team in +/-, 2nd in PTs, and 1st in shots per game (almost 4) suggesting his ability to move the puck offensively and drive offensive zone time, possession, and also points for his team.
His lack of size calls into question his success at the NHL level, but he's got the kind of skills and intangibles that suggest he'll be able to find a role. He's been compared to Torey Krug and I think the comparision fits. He's a similiar size, has a similiar skill-set, and has put up similiar numbers to Krug in the NCAA suggesting he's a guy the Wild absolutely need to keep and around and develop for the future.
On this Wild team, he might not get top 4 pairing minutes even strength. However, I think he's absolutely a guy that you can use to QB a PP unit. Similiar to Krug, who got 25 of his 50 points last season on the PP, I think Belpido can do similiar levels of damage.
I think Belpido should develop into a guy, along with Spurgeon and Dumba, who the Wild play heavy PP minutes.
To conclude the defensive analysis, I think the Wild are in extremely good shape defensively despite a drop in play to begin this current season.
Long term I think the Wild already have an elite top 4 in Suter/Spurgeon/Brodin/Dumba that are positive regression and better goalie play away from being exactly as advertised and among the leagues best grouping going forward for the well-forseable future.
This is a group that will likely maintain their elite play for 4 or 5 years more and will continue to do so until Suter's play drops off. However, I think drop offs in Suter's play will be offset by jumps in the Dumba/Brodin pairs consistency and as the Suter/Spurgeon pair transitions into a more defensively-orientated puck-moving role...Dumba and Brodin should be poised to take a more offensive role. I think the Wild have their future 3rd pairing anchor in Olofsson as well and he's a guy that could develop into an elite #5 that would be a good player on most teams second pairing.
For a team like the Wild, defensive depth is key to both their offense and defense and having Olofsson or a player like him would be great for them going forward. Further, with Prosser and Murphy looking servicable for this season...it would allow Seeler and Soucy another year of development in the AHL playing big-minutes and put them in a good position to compete for the #6/#7 role in 2018--which I think would be perfect.
The top 4 locked up long term gives the Wild a lot of flexibility to develop and try and plug in a #5/#6/#7 unit that can give the Wild flexibity to rotate 3 quality defenders with different types of skill-sets and develop their depth.
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Defensively (Next season and beyond)
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Keys:
1. Developing Gustav Olofsson into the #5
2. Developing Saucy or Seeler into the #6 or #6 and #7
3. Louis Belpido's development
Gustav Oloffsson specifically, despite a disappointing start to the season, looks to be a guy that can and will develop into the kind of talent that would probably classify him as a #4 defender if not for being blocked by the Wild's top 4 guys. His skating ability and puck-moving skills mean that if the Wild continue to let him develop and play through his struggles this season...they've got a guy to lead their 3rd-unit. Further, they've got a guy that when injuries can happen can step onto the 2nd-pairing and cause things to not miss a beat.
Oloffsson's development into this role is crucial for the Wild to develop into the kind of team they want to become. If he can develop into this role, he's the kind of player that will really allow the Wild's D to thrive as not many guys have a #5 that is as talented as him.
Olofsson is just 23 and two years of development stunted by injuries have meant that he hasn't gotten the kind of consistent playing time and experience over the last two seasons to be developmentally where he would be at otherwise and explain some of his initial struggles. However, he's a guy that was pushing for NHL time at just 21 for a reason and is seasoning and experience away from doing just that.
Gustav Olofsson, barring a surprise in lack of development, is a player the Wild should absolutely look to lock up long term. He's a guy like Haula on the Wild last year who was an igniter from a depth role and if given the opportunity on another team in a top 2 line role...will thrive.
Developing Olofsson long-term is a key for the Wild. His development and locking him up long term mean the Wild have another piece of their D-Core for the next half-decade and a guy who is a half-decade away from even being in his prime.
Olofsson isn't ready for this spot now. Which won't help this season, but he's well on his way to getting there. This leaves the Wild in a good spot to be able to look to develop D in the minors and at the AHL level and try and develop a couple of 2nd pairing guys to round out there roster.
The current guys getting opportunities in this role are Mike Rielly and Ryan Murphy. Both are talented puck-moving defenders who need to work on the defensive-side of their game. Both are inconsistent, but have chances to develop into a bottom-pairing role. Although, with the Wild's roster construction and offensive ability and relative lack of size or physicality in their top 4 (despite their defensive prowess) it seems likely that the Wild would prefer to develop big physical guys for these spots.
Nick Seeler and Carson Soucy are both those types of players and at 23 and 24 are young enough and having enough success in that role at the AHL level that gives the Wild organization positive signs towards that development.
If Soucy and Seeler can develop into NHL level guys in the roles that they are currently playing at the AHL level...they would be almost the perfect #6/#7 guys that you can rotate throughout that bottom-pairing and get effective-minutes from. Wild-fans should be happy that these guys are developing as they are and over the next season or two you'll likely see both begin to establish themselves at the NHL level.
The x-factor is Louis Belpido. If Belpido, who will likely begin next season in the AHL, can prove that his skills translate to that level and he's a Torey Krug type defender...the Wild have a lot of options going forward. Projecting development from Olofsson/Soucy/Seeler/Krug would suggest that the Wild might have a potential asset to dangle to fill a hole either in the goalie spot, offensively, or to replenish there minor leagues.
However, even better would be developing a Belpido/Olofsson pairing while hoping either Seeler or Soucy develops into the kind of physical bottom pairing defender they have the potential to develop into. This would put the Wild in position to have one of the strongest and deepest units in the NHL.
Despite early season struggles from this group, I think Wild fans should continue to be positive about the talent this group has and I think losing Scandella and Folin make sense long-term for roster-construction and flexibility despite the inconcistency and drop in play that those subtractions have caused this unit thus far in the 2017-18 season.
I think you will begin to see dividends from this move and better play during the second-half of the season from the addition of Prosser as the press-box/sub, from development from Olofsson and or Rielly as they get more seasoning, and from the potential later season call-ups of Seeler and Soucy or Ryan Murphy filling into a role.
Long term, Olofsson/Rielly/Seeler/Soucy/Murphy/Belpido give the Wild a number of different opportunities to develop their #5/#6/#7 rotation in a number of different ways.
To conclude:
I think the Wild are in absolutely amazing shape with their D-core and it will be a stength going forward provided they can get elite/borderline elite goalie-play
If the Wild can develop Olofsson/Soucy/Seeler/Belpido in the next 2 years or so they will be in position to have an elite 7 man-unit that is young and that they should be able to lock-up long term.
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Goal-tending (this season)
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I think the biggest thing holding the Wild team back going forward is the lack of elite goalie. With the disclaimer that goaltending is the position I feel least comfortable giving analysis on or reccomendations on how to fix...it seems that Dubnyk's play began to fall-off towards the last half of last season and hasn't improved this season.
Stalock is a great back-up with the chance to prove that he's starting caliber.
It's likely unless the Wild get career-best play from Stalock or a rebound from Dubnyk that they don't have that goalie on the roster. I think that's the biggest problem immediately with this roster and the biggest thing holding the Wild back. I think lackluster goalie play has made the defense look worse on a team that cannot afford that.
So in terms of goalie play this season, its likely either Dubnyk or Stalock. Dubnyk has been league-average at best over the last calender NHL season and Stalock has never shown anything other than back-up numbers despite being surprisingly solid both in the AHL and the NHL since he came to the Wild.
This season, barring Stalock having a surprising career year and running with his opportunity in Devan Dubnyk's absence...I think the Wild are going to have to bank on Dubnyk using his injury to clear his head and get reset and try and find his form. Whether that can happen, it's tough to say...Dubnyk has done it before and the Wild will need him to do it again if they're going to make the playoffs in what's shaping to be an extremely tight Western Conference #5-#10...let alone make a playoff run.
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Goaltending Going Forward
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The Wild also have a couple of goalie prospects in Stephen Michalek, Kaapo Kahkonen, and Adam Vay that have varying degrees of NHL potential. However this is the weakest part of the Wild's prospect group.
Michalek has been probably slightly above average at the AHL level and his numbers because of terrible Iowa teams probably look worse than his play and he's the closest to helping immediately. He's 9th in the AHL in save percentage in a small sample size this season.
Goalies are weird, but it doesn't look like he's anything more than an NHL caliber back-up at best. Vay is an unknown and has more potential in terms of size and athletic ability than actual production.
Kaapo Kahkonen is the one guy the Wild have in their system that flashes potential above-average potential. He's just 21 and in the top 5 in SV% and GAA in the Top Finish League and has been playing as pro since 18. But he's not available this year and is probably another year of AHL development from reaching the NHL.
Going forward, the Wild do have 1 potential future starter that's among the better goalie prospects in the game in Kahkonen. In a best case scenario, Kahkonen develops into a starter and Michalek a good back-up...however that seems like it's 2 seasons away optimistically.
Basically, I think it's clear that drafting and developing a goalie and/or targeting one in FA should be a priority. Dubnyk could very well return to form, however he is 32, and it's time to start looking towards the future. It will be unfortunate if the Wild have to go out and sign some sort of goalie before Kahkonen is ready as Fletcher and the Wild were pretty clearly hoping/banking on Dubnyk being able to maintain his play until Kahkonen is ready, however below-average goaltending can make an above-average roster look average. So this is a huge point of emphasis and a position to watch for the Wild.
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Wild Roster this season and going forward
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Basically going forward the Wild are in a great position to have a lot of talent and depth on their roster and a lot of different options for potential development. There will be some speed bumps along the way as development isn't linear, but the Wild have to ride those speed bumps and they will benefit long-term.
Fletcher has put the Wild in position to have assets and be able to compete now and be able to have a number of prospects both offensively and defensively coming into the NHL over the next few years to put the Wild in position, with the roster flexibility, to have a lot of talent both in their top 9 and top 6 defenders.
This season, however, while the team isn't bad....the expansion draft, plus neccesary roster reconstruction, non-linear development curves for the Wild's key prospects, injuries, plus a drop off in goalie-play mean it's looking like the perfect storm of symptoms for a down year by the Wild's standards.
Even with the down-year, projecting positive regression plus recovery from injuries and judging the current play thus far, the Wild likely have enough pieces to compete and have a chance to make the playoffs.
To me, positive regression combined with the type of goalie play the Wild get going forward will be the difference between whether the Wild make the playoffs comfortably and/or are positioned to make a run if they get to the playoffs or if they end up just missing the playoffs. Regardless of the outcome, I don't think Wild fans should be negative on the trend this team is on or the roster construction in the future.
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Keys going forward
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1: Fletcher must key on developing or finding another goalie option as well as continuing to make draft picks to bolster the Wild's prospect depth in the future.
2: The Wild still lack an elite PPG+ NHL forward. Fletcher should continue to pursue options that become available to him and should be willing to offer potential prospects such as Olofsson, Rielly, Belpido, , Greenway, and Kaprizov, and draft picks if possible to do so.
The Wild with their top 4 defenders (Suter/Spurgeon/Brodin Dumba) and future top 9 (Nino/Coyle/Staal/Granlund/Zucker/Eriksson Ek/Parise/Koivu/Kunin) should be willing to pursue options that come into the market for 70+ PPG players if available.
A package including Greenway/Kaprizov/Belpido/Olofsson/Rielly/Kahkonen and draft picks or some combination there-of should be able to compete with just about any offer to a team looking to rebuild and trade a star. For the Wild, guys like Greenway/Kaprizov are there (arguable) 3rd and 4th most talented forward prospects, while for other teams they would be A grade assets. This may or may not happen however it's important for the Wild to be involved in any situations of this sort that do arise. The Wild are in the unique position that not many teams are in to both have one of the best prospect groups in the NHL with star-power talent and a playoff-caliber roster.
This kind of depth and continuity is extremely important to keep and the Wild should be hesitant to trade any of their future assets. However if the right move is there they should take it.
3: BE PATIENT**** Continuing to focus on development of their young players and trying to avoid, as much as possible, stop-gap situations that hinder prospect development
The Wild want to compete now, but long-term to be the best possible team they can be Dumba, Olofsson, Eriksson Ek, and Kunin's development are key. They need to give these guys as many minutes as possible even if it is a lateral move for this season.
4: Despite in-house talent, the Wild should continue to add-talent both through the draft and in free-agency where they see fit
Conclusion:
The Wild are in great shape looking forward in all facets to be able to have the talent in-house that will be able to fill in roster spots and keep the Wild competitive and with chances to make runs for a long-time. Not many teams are in a position to be able to have the kind of in-house talent that the Wild have and that's an extremely good thing.
Fletcher has put the Wild in a very good spot. Not every team can win a cup and it's hard to do so. The Wild do need work, but are set-up well both on their NHL roster, their AHL roster, and at the college, junior, etc level long-term. This puts the Wild in a great position to continue to build on that and stock-pile talent in order to continue to be the best team possible.
Chuck Fletcher, although all of his moves aren't great, is one of the best GMs in the league and Wild fans should be very positive about their team going forward despite the lukewarm start to the season. For Wild fans, it may be tough, but patience just might be the key.
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I like to write down my thoughts as I do a deep dive on the roster. This one isn't going to be all that analytical, but it's a bunch of words about the team we all love! Read if you'd like...comment...correct me...or don't!
Regardless, this is the perspective of someone who's very familiar with the team, but hasn't really tuned in much this season and was a little bit distant during all the comings and going of the offseason and the new additions(studying abroad, working 40+ hours a week and college, plus a 20 credit course-load).
Basically that means a lot of my opinions and ideas about players aren't going to be off of the 30 game sample we've seen this season--which is good and bad. Good because not watching the ups and downs of a season can eliminate recency bias and maybe be a more level-headed analysis of players who are struggling, but will likely improve. Bad because if recent trends become the rule, I could be missing regression and have blind spots there.
So with that disclaimer here goes nothing...(Going to be long folks).
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Chuck Fletcher and this offseason:
To begin, I'd like to say a few words about Chuck Fletcher so you know more about my perspective and potential bias's which will come from my opinion on the current roster construction and views of the man behind the curtain
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I'm one of the biggest Fletcher fans there is. I totally understand the idea and thought process behind the moves Fletcher made and I think in general Fletcher is an absolute wizard. You can always judge outcomes in hindsight as an armchair GM, but I don't think that's fair. I think if you've got a GM that you can understand the thought process and it's a good one--they're going to make better moves than not.
I think the only thing you can really ding Fletcher for is that the Wild haven't been able to develop a star offensive PPG+ talent. That's the biggest thing they've been hurt by as they consistently have teams that play better "hockey", but lose because teams they face (the Blackhawks) have guys that can make 1 or 2 individual plays a game that can negate 55+ min of being outplayed.
However, I think it's hard to knock a GM for that as the only real ways (other than some degrees of luck) to develop that kind of player is to pick in the top 5 (and probably in the top 2 or 3) or get one in FA. Guys like that don't become FA's often and the Wild have been too good of a team (generally) to pick in the top 5 (often).
They have had a few possible opportunities to make a trade, draft a guy like that, or sign a guy and haven't quite been able to get one, but it's hard. And Fletcher's ability to build the defensive depth the Wild have been able to build (can't keep all of it) in Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin, Scandella, Dumba, Olofsson, Rielly, Folin, Belpido, etc. through a combination of smart trades, free agent signings, and drafting speak to his ability to identify talent.
Further, signing or making smart trades for Granlund, Zucker, Nino, Coyle, Haula, Pominville and even guys like Vanek speak well of Fletcher as well.
Consistently he's been able to make splashes at the deadline or in free agency and although he does trade quite a few picks he's been able to consistently get value in later rounds to once again replenish our prospect list after the previously named guys have graduated in Tuch, Greenway, Kunin, Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov, Solokov, and more also speak to his ability to draft forward talent.
I'm 100+ pro Fletcher and think he's among the best in the business. However, I think losing Haula is one of his biggest mistakes. I understand the Scandella and Pominville moves 100% and although I don't think they make us a better team immediately as of now, I think they will be additions by subtraction going forward regardless of their return hauls. Haula is a player that I really hate to lose and I think he was quietly or maybe not so quietly among the Wild's most important players last year playing the role that he did. Further, I do also question the Folin move...that one I get a little bit more because of Rielly and Olofsson however the Wild signed Quincey for similiar money and haven't really committed any further to the development of Olofsson and Rielly (partly or maybe largely due to inconsistency and a level of play below what an optimistic outlook might have hoped for).
I would have rather had let Vegas keep the pick and select another prospect in order to have them select Scandella or in some way, shape, or form--but I guess looking at it...you would have rather lost Haula than any of the other forwards so I guess that's really just a tough situation in the expansion draft. The only real argument without a ton of familiarity into why the moves were made as they were, is that if Fletcher planned on trading Scandella and I think it was obvious that he did. It seems like with some creativity the Wild could have kept Haula and gotten Vegas to take Scandella. Although, I guess to Fletcher's benefit...using Scandella...Fletcher was able to unload Pominville's contract as well and take flyers on Ennis's return to form and a solid depth piece in Foligno. However to me on the surface, and maybe there wasn't but it seems like Fletcher could have found a way to keep Haula.
However, to be 17-11-2 with injuries at various points to Nino, Coyle, Granlund, Parise, Foligno, Spurgeon, and now Dubnyk speaks volumes to the depth the Wild have and they're ability to grind out games and compete despite not having their full lineup on a team that relies on depth, 3 scoring lines, and contributions from everyone to win instead of elite individual talent.
The offseason moves made neccesary by the Vegas expansion draft outside of Fletcher's control was always going to hurt the Wild more-so than just about any other team. To Fletcher's credit he navigated it about as deftly as possible and figured out how to unload a solid-chunk of salary in order to keep the best pieces of the core together and position the Wild roster-construction-wise in a position to retain those pieces while opening up room for young players deserving an opportunity to begin to crack the lineup.
Losing Folin/Haula/Scandella/Pominville was always going to make the Wild a worse team immediately to begin this season. However giving potential development opportunities over the course of the season to Dumba/Eriksson Ek/Luke Kunin/Gustav Olofsson/Mike Rielly/Carson Soucy/Nick Seeler/etc. and unloading contracts that will allow the Wild to retain their studs going forward seems like solid manuevering to make the best of a bad situation and put the Wild in a position that's best for them long-term--basically rebuilding on the fly.
Simply put, despite slightly disappointing play from Dumba/Eriksson Ek/Kunin/Olofsson/Rielly thus far ... I think you could to see some positive regression and development from all of them going forward and into the second half of the season.
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Going-forward this season
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Keys to improvement
1. Staying healthy and getting Parise back offensively and Spurgeon defensively is the biggest key for the rest of the season.
2. Consistent play and improvement from new additions offensively such as Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno would go along way for this Wild Team
3. Continuing to stick with Dumba/Olofsson/Eriksson Ek/and also Kunin and letting them play through their struggles is going to have to be something the Wild live with. Their eventual record this year will be determined by the amount of development and improvement these players can show. Regardless, the Wild in 2018 and beyond will benefit from this...
4. Getting consistent goal-tending play out of Dubnyk, Alex Stalock, or whomever the Wild are putting between between the net is key. The Wild's defensive play has dropped off and sub-par starts for their standards from the top 4, injuries, losing Scandella and Folin, and the inability for Olofsson and Rielly to establish themselves are responsible for a decent chunk of the the drop-off. However, some of these issues are certainly amplified because the Wild have been getting average to below-average goaltending instead of elite to borderline-elite like in years past. (This is a symbiotic relationship though I do realize)
I think post all-star break with a healthy Parise, Spurgeon, and improved goalie play from either a healthy Dubnyk or Stalock...the Wild could be poised to make a little bit of a run if they can continue to stay in contention. Further, I think there is a lot of upside potential for the Wild if they can get healthy and see development from prospects like Kunin and Eriksson Ek--which they very well could and should be expecting--and acquisitions like Ennis can get going.
Offensively, getting Parise back will go along way to helping the Wild's problems offensively. He's not the player he was however he's still a great offensive player around and in-front of the net. No longer can he carry a line (most likely) however I think there's a number of different ways you could incorporate Parise into your top 9 that allows the Wild to field a much more competent 3rd line. For any NHL team, but especially the Wild 3 scoring lines is extremely important and 3 lines that on any given night could be considered your "1a, 1b, or 1c" or at least 2a 2b.
Personally, I would probably play Parise on the 3rd line and give him a role where he's playing solid veteran hockey even strength and getting tons of PP minutes. I think on a per 82 game pace he can still put up 20-25g 25-30ast numbers if you can get enough skill around him, even from a 3rd line.
Getting Ennis going and getting him to pre-concussion levels of 203 points in 335 games...which is a 50 point (21g - 29 apg) per 82 game pace will be key for the Wild going forward. I think Ennis has struggled to find a spot in the lineup, but I think some of that has to do with the fact that Ennis needs to play more with skill players. I think injuries to some extent have prohibited Ennis from being able to consistently do that. A healthy Parise playing on the wing-across from Ennis would go along way to allowing Ennis to play with the kind of offensive skill that better complements his skill-game.
It's important to play Ennis and Parise with a C who can drive possession and be responsible defensively. Not looking at which line is which I think playing Koivu with those 2 would complement them. Another option would be Coyle if you're looking for more speed from that line. Point is, you've got options.
If the Wild can get Parise back and begin to roll what looks like 3 scoring lines with...
Nino-Staal-_____
Zucker-__-Granlund
Parise-_____ - _____
With some combination of Koivu ,Coyle, Eriksson Ek. and Ennis in those blank spots (Boudreau will have to figure out how to do that) will give the Wild 3 lines that all have guys who can score and produce offensively while also holding their own on the defensive side of things.
I think it would be worth trying different combinations of Koivu centering either of those two-wing pairings (I would see if Ennis and Parise can work or if they are too small). You have a couple of different things you can try with Ek and Coyle at C and W as well. Regardless, I think there's enough offensive talent at all 3 lines and a number of different things you can try.
I would start with: Nino/Staal/Coyle + Zucker/Eriksson Ek/Granlund + Parise/Koivu/Ennis
Solidifying your top 9 makes your depth look a lot better. I think the roster construction is intriguing, especially having Foligno, Winnik, and Stewart gives the Wild the flexibility to match-up physically and insert those guys in against heavily physical teams as well which is also important and something the Wild have struggled with in the past.
The ability to switch out skill/speed guys in Mitchell/Cullen/Ennis with Foligno/Winnik/Stewart in the bottom 6 who are 6'2-6'3 big bodies that can play a more physical game bodes well for the Wild going forward. I think this gives them a lot of flexibility to play a more speed and skill game or a more physical game if needed. Again, this will require some ingenuity by Boudreau.
Conclusion
I think the Wild's roster is constructed nicely to (if things go as planned) compete for a playoff seed this season while allowing young players to develop. The biggest addition will be Parise's return. Parise's return no matter the line combo will allow Eriksson Ek and Ennis to play with a lot more skill, which should help there games as well.
Further, this depth should allow the Wild to play matchups and it will make their 4th line a lot better too with some combination of Foligno/Cullen/Mitchell/Winnik/Stewart.
Offensively going forward (past this season)
Even with aging vets in Koivu, Parise, and Staal...the Wild are in a very good spot to have a number of talented forwards developing over the next 1-2-3 years to replace those 3.
I personally think as soon as next year, development from Kunin and Eriksson Ek and the potential of Greenway being NHL-ready should push Parise and Koivu onto a "3rd line together" although really more of a 2a/2b situation.
I think as soon as next season, the Wild should be trying to slot Eriksson Ek and Kunin in the remaining top 9 spots.
Nino/Staal/Coyle Zucker/Eriksson Ek/Granlund Parise/Koivu//Kunin
It seems like these line combos will work every well, Eriksson Ek's shot, speed down the wing, two-way game, and high IQ passing ability, complements Granlund and Zucker and them playing on the rush and with speed.
While, Kunin, Parise, and Koivu will likely play a very north-south game that involves firing tons of pucks to the net and crashing the boards. This line should be extremely solid defensively and also complement eachother's gamestyles well.
Further, Nino, Coyle, and Staal will be able to play a big bodied bruising cycling style kind of similiar to ANA and Boudreau's famed Getzlaf-Perry-Ryan lines of old.
I think that you can play all 3 lines between 15-17 minutes even strength and give certain guys PP time and PK time in order to get everyone enough minutes. It's more of a 1a/1b/1c type of situation ideally at even strength with each line having different skill-sets and play-styles.
The Wild should also be in a position where in 2 or 3 years when Koivu and Staal's contracts end. Kunin and Ek will have development far enough to be top 6 contributors and Greenway, Kaprizov, and others will be ready to step in.
That means, Fletcher has put the Wild in an extremely good position to set themselves up not only this year and the next, but for the forseable future and the timeline is great for the Wild's next group of young studs to transition to the NHL and then begin to developing bigger roles just as this current group of Wild talent did to Koivu, Parise, Pominville, etc before.
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Big kudos to Fletcher. While, on the surface, his roster moves this offseason could be seen as questionable. Fletcher was able to manuever the expansion draft and unload contracts in order to put the Wild in position to be its most successful in the long term and keep its top young core pieces (Granlund/Zucker/Nino/Coyle/Spurgeon/Brodin/Dumba) and also surround those pieces with its most essential vets (Staal/Koivu/Parise/Suter) and in a position to retain and keep all of that talent going forward.
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Defensively Now and In The Future
I think the Wild is still in good position defensively to have a strong defensive-core for the long-term despite a drop in play to begin this season.
Elite Top 4
Ryan Suter: I think Suter's game should age well throughout his contract even if he transitions into a purely defensive positional guy and despite some fans not seeing the value Suter brings to an NHL team.
Jonas Brodin: I think Brodin is an absolute stud and can be rock solid defensively on either a 1st or 2nd pair and definitely an elite 2nd unit player to anchor that pairing and he's extremely young.
Jared Spurgeon: I am of the belief that Spurgeon is one of the best 15 or so defenseman in the game and his ability to move the puck well and play solid positional defense makes him a huge threat both offensively and defensively. Suter and Spurgeon is a great 1st pairing despite them not playing quite up to their potential this year.
Matt Dumba: This one is more controversial, but I also am a big believer in Matt Dumba. He's been inconsistent this year and hasn't quite taken the jump that many were hoping, especially defensively. However, his skating and puck-moving ability has always made Wild teams with him on the ice great offensively with tons of possession and zone-time. I think he makes glaring mistakes defensively and that will cost you a game here or there, but generally I think being a defender that plays the kind of game he plays means that his mistakes are glaring and seared into your brain, but generally, despite the TOs, gaffs, and defensive lapses he's an absolute plus to a team and will continue to develop into a player that will help you win games and a great 2nd pairing defender with Brodin as well as a good player on the PP.
He hasn't been quite as good this season, somewhat reflected by his own play, but also somewhat reflected by lackluster team play and goalie play below what the Wild are capable of--there's a reason that Dumba, despite his gaffes, defensive lapses, and TOs that have always been there, is +25 for his career.
Dumba despite not playing great, is on pace for 10g and 30 ast and 40 points defensively. I think he's capable of approached 15-20g and 35-40 ast in his prime and scoring 50-60 pts while the Wild with him on the ice get a lot of offensive zone time and possession provided that Dumba is getting 2nd-pairing minutes and a team anchors a PP around his mobility, offensive-instincts, and shot.
Even then, I think, with a hot streak this season, and optimistic projections Dumba could approach 15g and 35 ast this season and score around 45 points. Paired with Brodin long-term, almost the perfect complement for Dumba will make that 2nd pairing for the Wild a force provided that the Wild can get goalie play that's closer to top 5 than it is to league average. With average goalie play, any defense and defenders, no matter how skilled will look average. Some of average goalie play can be attributed to defensive lapses, however Dumba's mistakes especially are not anything new and the Wild have been able to have elite defending teams and elite goaltending with those gaffs and with stretches of Dumba in the top 4.
If Dubnyk is declining, the Wild need to start looking at options to get them a goalie that can give them elite or borderline elite play. If they can't get that kind of goal-tending they won't be successful defensively no matter the kind of defense that the Wild surrounds their goalie with. There are very few teams in the NHL that no matter their roster-construction that can succeed with goal-tending that is average to below average.
I think that top 4 combination gives the Wild 4 defenders who should both be here long-term and can be among the leagues best top 2 pairings for the forseable future. Suter and Spurgeon and Brodin and Dumba complement eachothers games well and should be able to be successful in all 3 zones and all facets of the game. These 4 are the key to both the Wild's offense and defense and rightfully so. Further, I think the Wild's roster construction going forward should allow them to be able to retain all 4 long-term--which they should.
Bottom Pairing
With the top 4 in place long term the Wild are in the unique position of being able to focus on building an abundance of riches and focus on developing their #5/#6/#7 rotation long term. Further, I think the Wild have the in-house options available to eventually find the right combination of guys to fill out there bottom pairing.
Christian Folin: I do think the Wild may have miscalculated in letting Christian Folin go, eventually signing Kyle Quincey and looking at other options for a similiar price to which they could have gotten Folin. I think Folin projects to be a protypical bottom-pairing defender for a contending team in terms of his size at 6'3 flashing a little bit of skill offensively and as a puck-mover.
I think Folin is an above-average bottom-pairing defender that can play-up in the case of injuries on the 2nd pairing, can be a rock-solid 3rd pairing defender, and is a player that is cheap-enough that you can transition him between bottom-pairing and the press-box if you've got enough talent or a young-prospect breaks out. At 26, I think he was the kind of role-player on the back-end that the Wild would have benefited from keeping around long-term giving the Wild the ability to have solid production on both sides of the ice from a player on their bottom pairing and giving the Wild the flexibility to develop any defensive prospects as long as possible before they are 100% ready.
However with that being said, I don't think Folin by any means is a guy that the Wild should lose a ton of sleep over. I think the Wild have the players and the talent in-system to replace and outpace his production, however those players don't have the experience nor have they developed the consistency that Folin had developed and thus Folin's departure is one reason the Wild have dropped below their defensive-standard set in previous seasons now.
In-House Options
That being said, I understand the Wild thought they had two players--Gustav Olofsson and Mike Rielly--who were ready or close to ready for a chance to lock down the #6/#7 spots and that they could find a veteran option to fill his defensive and size role at that position. That being said try #1 in Quincy did not work out.
However, I think the Wild do have options in Olofsson and Rielly that are young defenders who should develop into NHL guys--Olofsson especially flashes great potential as a solid-two way defender who can move the puck and is a great skater with some size.
Gustaff Olofsson: The Wild have been especially hurt this season by these players inconsistency and disappointing play from Olofsson especially. However, there is a lot of reason to believe that there should be positive regression going forward. I think Oloffsson's game especially suggests that the Wild have another #4/#5 defender that if you have anchoring a 3rd-unit...suggests a very-strong D-core.
Mike Rielly: I like Rielly's game and I think he'll eventually develop into a solid NHL player because of his skating ability and puck-skills. However, I'm not sure he's got the type of game nor does he bring the physicality that you want out of a bottom-pairing role. However, I think the Wild should still be trying to develop him...he's someone that the Wild should probably look to develop and attempt to trade for assets.
Nate Prosser: Say what you want about Nate Prosser. However his toughness, experience, and the fact that he knows his role make him a solid addition to the Wild for THIS season because he's willing to sit in the press-box and can hold his own when he gets minutes. However, he takes away development time for players with more long-term potential on this roster and it seems like if you are going to play a guy like him it makes losing a guy like Christian Folin even more glaring.
Nick Seeler and Carson Soucy: I think the Wild have a few other players as well that are looking like they are developing into options for the Wild moving forward. To pair with Olofsson, it seems like both Nick Seeler and Carson Soucy are developing into physical-big bodied defensive defenders that should be great guys to have as #6/#7 defenders and will know their role.
Both Seeler and Soucy are never going to be guys that put up many points, but they're both big, physical, and strong and guys that will block a lot of shots and be great role players. Soucy is bigger with a little bit more potential and younger at 23 and Seeler is 24...both are guys that the Wild should be looking to give opportunities too over this season and the next. If they can develop as it looks like they are, these two could form to be almost the perfect #6/#7 tandem.
Ryan Murphy: Ryan Murphy is a former #5 pick and still young at 24 and while he's never lived up to the offensive promise he showed before reaching the pro-game...he's a guy who's a really good skater and can move the puck-around. While undersized and with his lack of development in terms of putting points on the board despite coming in as an offensive defender, he's young enough and has the skills to remake his game into a puck-moving solid bottom-pairing defender if he can develop the positional hockey-skills to play well enough defensively.
History suggests that players such as himself will likely take a little while to develop and transition from the offensive style of play that works well in the minors into a style of game utilized those offensive skills to be more successful in a different role in the NHL. While this likely won't happen, Murphy is another guy with the kind of talent to develop into a #5/#6/#7 defensively.
Louis Belpido: Wild have another guy with a ton of potential in terms of his leadership skills, offensive and puck-moving ability, and skating ability in Louis Belpido who's already captained his college team and juniors team and is putting up PPG numbers (on pace for 13g and 25 assists in 40g) while being a + defensively captaining his college team.
He's 2nd on his team in +/-, 2nd in PTs, and 1st in shots per game (almost 4) suggesting his ability to move the puck offensively and drive offensive zone time, possession, and also points for his team.
His lack of size calls into question his success at the NHL level, but he's got the kind of skills and intangibles that suggest he'll be able to find a role. He's been compared to Torey Krug and I think the comparision fits. He's a similiar size, has a similiar skill-set, and has put up similiar numbers to Krug in the NCAA suggesting he's a guy the Wild absolutely need to keep and around and develop for the future.
On this Wild team, he might not get top 4 pairing minutes even strength. However, I think he's absolutely a guy that you can use to QB a PP unit. Similiar to Krug, who got 25 of his 50 points last season on the PP, I think Belpido can do similiar levels of damage.
I think Belpido should develop into a guy, along with Spurgeon and Dumba, who the Wild play heavy PP minutes.
To conclude the defensive analysis, I think the Wild are in extremely good shape defensively despite a drop in play to begin this current season.
Long term I think the Wild already have an elite top 4 in Suter/Spurgeon/Brodin/Dumba that are positive regression and better goalie play away from being exactly as advertised and among the leagues best grouping going forward for the well-forseable future.
This is a group that will likely maintain their elite play for 4 or 5 years more and will continue to do so until Suter's play drops off. However, I think drop offs in Suter's play will be offset by jumps in the Dumba/Brodin pairs consistency and as the Suter/Spurgeon pair transitions into a more defensively-orientated puck-moving role...Dumba and Brodin should be poised to take a more offensive role. I think the Wild have their future 3rd pairing anchor in Olofsson as well and he's a guy that could develop into an elite #5 that would be a good player on most teams second pairing.
For a team like the Wild, defensive depth is key to both their offense and defense and having Olofsson or a player like him would be great for them going forward. Further, with Prosser and Murphy looking servicable for this season...it would allow Seeler and Soucy another year of development in the AHL playing big-minutes and put them in a good position to compete for the #6/#7 role in 2018--which I think would be perfect.
The top 4 locked up long term gives the Wild a lot of flexibility to develop and try and plug in a #5/#6/#7 unit that can give the Wild flexibity to rotate 3 quality defenders with different types of skill-sets and develop their depth.
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Defensively (Next season and beyond)
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Keys:
1. Developing Gustav Olofsson into the #5
2. Developing Saucy or Seeler into the #6 or #6 and #7
3. Louis Belpido's development
Gustav Oloffsson specifically, despite a disappointing start to the season, looks to be a guy that can and will develop into the kind of talent that would probably classify him as a #4 defender if not for being blocked by the Wild's top 4 guys. His skating ability and puck-moving skills mean that if the Wild continue to let him develop and play through his struggles this season...they've got a guy to lead their 3rd-unit. Further, they've got a guy that when injuries can happen can step onto the 2nd-pairing and cause things to not miss a beat.
Oloffsson's development into this role is crucial for the Wild to develop into the kind of team they want to become. If he can develop into this role, he's the kind of player that will really allow the Wild's D to thrive as not many guys have a #5 that is as talented as him.
Olofsson is just 23 and two years of development stunted by injuries have meant that he hasn't gotten the kind of consistent playing time and experience over the last two seasons to be developmentally where he would be at otherwise and explain some of his initial struggles. However, he's a guy that was pushing for NHL time at just 21 for a reason and is seasoning and experience away from doing just that.
Gustav Olofsson, barring a surprise in lack of development, is a player the Wild should absolutely look to lock up long term. He's a guy like Haula on the Wild last year who was an igniter from a depth role and if given the opportunity on another team in a top 2 line role...will thrive.
Developing Olofsson long-term is a key for the Wild. His development and locking him up long term mean the Wild have another piece of their D-Core for the next half-decade and a guy who is a half-decade away from even being in his prime.
Olofsson isn't ready for this spot now. Which won't help this season, but he's well on his way to getting there. This leaves the Wild in a good spot to be able to look to develop D in the minors and at the AHL level and try and develop a couple of 2nd pairing guys to round out there roster.
The current guys getting opportunities in this role are Mike Rielly and Ryan Murphy. Both are talented puck-moving defenders who need to work on the defensive-side of their game. Both are inconsistent, but have chances to develop into a bottom-pairing role. Although, with the Wild's roster construction and offensive ability and relative lack of size or physicality in their top 4 (despite their defensive prowess) it seems likely that the Wild would prefer to develop big physical guys for these spots.
Nick Seeler and Carson Soucy are both those types of players and at 23 and 24 are young enough and having enough success in that role at the AHL level that gives the Wild organization positive signs towards that development.
If Soucy and Seeler can develop into NHL level guys in the roles that they are currently playing at the AHL level...they would be almost the perfect #6/#7 guys that you can rotate throughout that bottom-pairing and get effective-minutes from. Wild-fans should be happy that these guys are developing as they are and over the next season or two you'll likely see both begin to establish themselves at the NHL level.
The x-factor is Louis Belpido. If Belpido, who will likely begin next season in the AHL, can prove that his skills translate to that level and he's a Torey Krug type defender...the Wild have a lot of options going forward. Projecting development from Olofsson/Soucy/Seeler/Krug would suggest that the Wild might have a potential asset to dangle to fill a hole either in the goalie spot, offensively, or to replenish there minor leagues.
However, even better would be developing a Belpido/Olofsson pairing while hoping either Seeler or Soucy develops into the kind of physical bottom pairing defender they have the potential to develop into. This would put the Wild in position to have one of the strongest and deepest units in the NHL.
Despite early season struggles from this group, I think Wild fans should continue to be positive about the talent this group has and I think losing Scandella and Folin make sense long-term for roster-construction and flexibility despite the inconcistency and drop in play that those subtractions have caused this unit thus far in the 2017-18 season.
I think you will begin to see dividends from this move and better play during the second-half of the season from the addition of Prosser as the press-box/sub, from development from Olofsson and or Rielly as they get more seasoning, and from the potential later season call-ups of Seeler and Soucy or Ryan Murphy filling into a role.
Long term, Olofsson/Rielly/Seeler/Soucy/Murphy/Belpido give the Wild a number of different opportunities to develop their #5/#6/#7 rotation in a number of different ways.
To conclude:
I think the Wild are in absolutely amazing shape with their D-core and it will be a stength going forward provided they can get elite/borderline elite goalie-play
If the Wild can develop Olofsson/Soucy/Seeler/Belpido in the next 2 years or so they will be in position to have an elite 7 man-unit that is young and that they should be able to lock-up long term.
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Goal-tending (this season)
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I think the biggest thing holding the Wild team back going forward is the lack of elite goalie. With the disclaimer that goaltending is the position I feel least comfortable giving analysis on or reccomendations on how to fix...it seems that Dubnyk's play began to fall-off towards the last half of last season and hasn't improved this season.
Stalock is a great back-up with the chance to prove that he's starting caliber.
It's likely unless the Wild get career-best play from Stalock or a rebound from Dubnyk that they don't have that goalie on the roster. I think that's the biggest problem immediately with this roster and the biggest thing holding the Wild back. I think lackluster goalie play has made the defense look worse on a team that cannot afford that.
So in terms of goalie play this season, its likely either Dubnyk or Stalock. Dubnyk has been league-average at best over the last calender NHL season and Stalock has never shown anything other than back-up numbers despite being surprisingly solid both in the AHL and the NHL since he came to the Wild.
This season, barring Stalock having a surprising career year and running with his opportunity in Devan Dubnyk's absence...I think the Wild are going to have to bank on Dubnyk using his injury to clear his head and get reset and try and find his form. Whether that can happen, it's tough to say...Dubnyk has done it before and the Wild will need him to do it again if they're going to make the playoffs in what's shaping to be an extremely tight Western Conference #5-#10...let alone make a playoff run.
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Goaltending Going Forward
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The Wild also have a couple of goalie prospects in Stephen Michalek, Kaapo Kahkonen, and Adam Vay that have varying degrees of NHL potential. However this is the weakest part of the Wild's prospect group.
Michalek has been probably slightly above average at the AHL level and his numbers because of terrible Iowa teams probably look worse than his play and he's the closest to helping immediately. He's 9th in the AHL in save percentage in a small sample size this season.
Goalies are weird, but it doesn't look like he's anything more than an NHL caliber back-up at best. Vay is an unknown and has more potential in terms of size and athletic ability than actual production.
Kaapo Kahkonen is the one guy the Wild have in their system that flashes potential above-average potential. He's just 21 and in the top 5 in SV% and GAA in the Top Finish League and has been playing as pro since 18. But he's not available this year and is probably another year of AHL development from reaching the NHL.
Going forward, the Wild do have 1 potential future starter that's among the better goalie prospects in the game in Kahkonen. In a best case scenario, Kahkonen develops into a starter and Michalek a good back-up...however that seems like it's 2 seasons away optimistically.
Basically, I think it's clear that drafting and developing a goalie and/or targeting one in FA should be a priority. Dubnyk could very well return to form, however he is 32, and it's time to start looking towards the future. It will be unfortunate if the Wild have to go out and sign some sort of goalie before Kahkonen is ready as Fletcher and the Wild were pretty clearly hoping/banking on Dubnyk being able to maintain his play until Kahkonen is ready, however below-average goaltending can make an above-average roster look average. So this is a huge point of emphasis and a position to watch for the Wild.
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Wild Roster this season and going forward
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Basically going forward the Wild are in a great position to have a lot of talent and depth on their roster and a lot of different options for potential development. There will be some speed bumps along the way as development isn't linear, but the Wild have to ride those speed bumps and they will benefit long-term.
Fletcher has put the Wild in position to have assets and be able to compete now and be able to have a number of prospects both offensively and defensively coming into the NHL over the next few years to put the Wild in position, with the roster flexibility, to have a lot of talent both in their top 9 and top 6 defenders.
This season, however, while the team isn't bad....the expansion draft, plus neccesary roster reconstruction, non-linear development curves for the Wild's key prospects, injuries, plus a drop off in goalie-play mean it's looking like the perfect storm of symptoms for a down year by the Wild's standards.
Even with the down-year, projecting positive regression plus recovery from injuries and judging the current play thus far, the Wild likely have enough pieces to compete and have a chance to make the playoffs.
To me, positive regression combined with the type of goalie play the Wild get going forward will be the difference between whether the Wild make the playoffs comfortably and/or are positioned to make a run if they get to the playoffs or if they end up just missing the playoffs. Regardless of the outcome, I don't think Wild fans should be negative on the trend this team is on or the roster construction in the future.
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Keys going forward
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1: Fletcher must key on developing or finding another goalie option as well as continuing to make draft picks to bolster the Wild's prospect depth in the future.
2: The Wild still lack an elite PPG+ NHL forward. Fletcher should continue to pursue options that become available to him and should be willing to offer potential prospects such as Olofsson, Rielly, Belpido, , Greenway, and Kaprizov, and draft picks if possible to do so.
The Wild with their top 4 defenders (Suter/Spurgeon/Brodin Dumba) and future top 9 (Nino/Coyle/Staal/Granlund/Zucker/Eriksson Ek/Parise/Koivu/Kunin) should be willing to pursue options that come into the market for 70+ PPG players if available.
A package including Greenway/Kaprizov/Belpido/Olofsson/Rielly/Kahkonen and draft picks or some combination there-of should be able to compete with just about any offer to a team looking to rebuild and trade a star. For the Wild, guys like Greenway/Kaprizov are there (arguable) 3rd and 4th most talented forward prospects, while for other teams they would be A grade assets. This may or may not happen however it's important for the Wild to be involved in any situations of this sort that do arise. The Wild are in the unique position that not many teams are in to both have one of the best prospect groups in the NHL with star-power talent and a playoff-caliber roster.
This kind of depth and continuity is extremely important to keep and the Wild should be hesitant to trade any of their future assets. However if the right move is there they should take it.
3: BE PATIENT**** Continuing to focus on development of their young players and trying to avoid, as much as possible, stop-gap situations that hinder prospect development
The Wild want to compete now, but long-term to be the best possible team they can be Dumba, Olofsson, Eriksson Ek, and Kunin's development are key. They need to give these guys as many minutes as possible even if it is a lateral move for this season.
4: Despite in-house talent, the Wild should continue to add-talent both through the draft and in free-agency where they see fit
Conclusion:
The Wild are in great shape looking forward in all facets to be able to have the talent in-house that will be able to fill in roster spots and keep the Wild competitive and with chances to make runs for a long-time. Not many teams are in a position to be able to have the kind of in-house talent that the Wild have and that's an extremely good thing.
Fletcher has put the Wild in a very good spot. Not every team can win a cup and it's hard to do so. The Wild do need work, but are set-up well both on their NHL roster, their AHL roster, and at the college, junior, etc level long-term. This puts the Wild in a great position to continue to build on that and stock-pile talent in order to continue to be the best team possible.
Chuck Fletcher, although all of his moves aren't great, is one of the best GMs in the league and Wild fans should be very positive about their team going forward despite the lukewarm start to the season. For Wild fans, it may be tough, but patience just might be the key.
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123TripleDoge
Registered User
- Nov 24, 2014
- 3,224
- 234
Was Foligno a healthy scratch last night? Woulda been funny to see GMCF's face when he learned that lol
I don't think Fletcher cares that much. I also suspect that BB was consulted before they made the deal for Foligno, and he was OK with it. So far, this sitting of bottom six forwards has worked really well as a motivator.
It's funny, because the medicine Murphy seemed to need was a series of games without being benched to build up his confidence.
It's funny, because the medicine Murphy seemed to need was a series of games without being benched to build up his confidence.
DANOZ28
Registered User
nino thx for your effort writing, i'll read the entire thing soon. well being a gmcf fan you ignore the fact we've had no real playoff success. we have little to no talent on the farm thx to trading away all our picks. if it wasnt for suter & parise i doubt we'd even be making the playoffs in a league where 50% of teams make it. disclaimer i've been in the fire gmcf camp for awhile. edit i always feel bad saying that knowing hardcore fans want to believe their gm knows what hes doing. i just shake my head thinking about all the picks not in our system. the leddy trade & now the scandella trade both brutal!. true there arent alot of replacement gms sitting around (im available!)
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123TripleDoge
Registered User
- Nov 24, 2014
- 3,224
- 234
Idk, it's just not a good look when he's a guy GMCF had targeted and then gave him a pretty generous contract
I didn't know you could have a post that long. Good read, I agree with some points and disagree with others.
This season is starting to feel like a season where the team will never be completely healthy. Nino, Coyle, and Granny all missed a good chunk of time. At least the lack of games early made Granny's injury seem not so bad. Parise, Spurgeon, and Dub are all out (right now). I'd really like to see a 10 game stretch where the team was all healthy together to get a look and see what they actually have.
This season is starting to feel like a season where the team will never be completely healthy. Nino, Coyle, and Granny all missed a good chunk of time. At least the lack of games early made Granny's injury seem not so bad. Parise, Spurgeon, and Dub are all out (right now). I'd really like to see a 10 game stretch where the team was all healthy together to get a look and see what they actually have.
Northerner
Registered User
- Feb 23, 2017
- 1,681
- 389
Am I the only one who thinks Stalock is "small" for NHL standards, and is a bit nervous when he's in nets? I love that he's having success and I am the Wild fan that wants MORE (not less) MN born players, so I love having him, but I just don't know if he's built for longevity in this League.
DANOZ28
Registered User
i remember back in the day when goalies were the shortest guy on the team like darren pang aka panger
Stalock has been around for awhile in the NHL, so I'm not that concerned about his size. If he was a fresh rookie, I would be concerned.
Saga of the Elk
Honoured Person
- May 31, 2008
- 3,145
- 948
Is it really a trend away from big goalies? 6'4" is about the average for the under 30 NHL goalies. Murray, Hellebuyck, Jones, Vasaleski, Andersen, Gibsonm Ullmark (I really like him). They are smaller than Dub's 6'6", but he's one of the tallest goalies around.
Subban and Lindgren are smaller goalies with a lot of potential.
Saga of the Elk
Honoured Person
- May 31, 2008
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Trend was probably the wrong word. More just kudos to the teams taking a chance on the athletic smaller guys who get the job done. No disrespect to Dubnyk, it's just more fun to watch a Hasek and also see more scoring.
It's the Quick/Price goaltender style debate?
Hasek was amazing to watch. But not many, if any could play the way he did and have success.
Big week for the Wild.
-2 sets of back-to-backs, 4 game road trip, 5 games in 8 days. 4 of the games are winnable; at Tampa right before Xmas, 2nd game of back-to-back, 4th game of the road trip, will be a tough one. Hoping for 6p during the stretch.
-Murphy/Reilly are coming up on their waivers exemptions. Both are found money players, but I would not like losing them for nothing.
-I guess we'll get to see Michalek at some point.
I was looking at something and noticed Mitchell has been up for almost a month straight. He'll need to pass through waivers again if/when he's sent back down.
-2 sets of back-to-backs, 4 game road trip, 5 games in 8 days. 4 of the games are winnable; at Tampa right before Xmas, 2nd game of back-to-back, 4th game of the road trip, will be a tough one. Hoping for 6p during the stretch.
-Murphy/Reilly are coming up on their waivers exemptions. Both are found money players, but I would not like losing them for nothing.
-I guess we'll get to see Michalek at some point.
I was looking at something and noticed Mitchell has been up for almost a month straight. He'll need to pass through waivers again if/when he's sent back down.
Northerner
Registered User
- Feb 23, 2017
- 1,681
- 389
What? If there is a trend - and I believe there is - it's definitely towards MASSIVE goalies. I'd wager that it's even more prevalent in mights, pee-wees, bantam and high school at a rate we have yet to see come to fruition on the NHL scale yet. I'd be willing to bet in the next 10 years the goalies are all going to look like NBA power forwards.
But maybe it's just me...
BTW, when I was coming up playing hockey I still to this day remember some of the larger goalies my teams would face, and as I recall they were far more of a nightmare to try to sneak one past. I'm 36 years old though so that was a totally different era for sure.
I guess it's the right move since Murphy's "found money" from the offseason, but it seemed like he played the best out of him, Olofsson and Reilly. I'd say having a strong partner gave him an edge, but it's not like Prosser's been trash. Still, I can't say Reilly deserved to be sent down either, so what can you do? Hope to see Murphy back again; definitely not a lost cause.
Tyler Durden
Registered User
- Sep 18, 2009
- 2,600
- 61
The thought is it will probably be Stalock even though he played today, since today was an afternoon game and tomorrow an evening game. No confirmation yet from what I've seen, so not set in stone.
Jesus comma Brodin
Effing Norris-Byng Brodin
That's what they tell us. Don't know about that. I think moving the correct amount is what you want. I also think being able to recover is important, and quickness helps there. Dubnyk seems slow side to side, and moves like a beached whale during scrambles.
No expert here, for sure. Like most skaters, goaltending is a mystery to me. I did take a couple of courses at Stauber's when I was coaching youth hockey, as I seemed to be the guy who always got the short straw when it came to coaching assignments.
Stalock's puck handling is also outstanding. Wonder if he can help Doobs in that area.
No expert here, for sure. Like most skaters, goaltending is a mystery to me. I did take a couple of courses at Stauber's when I was coaching youth hockey, as I seemed to be the guy who always got the short straw when it came to coaching assignments.
Stalock's puck handling is also outstanding. Wonder if he can help Doobs in that area.
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