McKenzie on Expansion: Vegas and possibly beyond 32?

[Tackla]

The NHL is coming to Seattle and back to Quebec City. They would throw cold water on the ideal if they weren't coming (see the Markham arena). The question is when. It's possible Quebec may have to wait longer than they would like.

Actually, no they would not throw cold water on it. The NHL is not led by dumb businessmen who want people to know they have no other options.

 

[Killion]

The NHL is coming to Seattle and back to Quebec City. They would throw cold water on the idea if they weren't coming (see the Markham arena). The question is when. It's possible Quebec may have to wait longer than they would like.

Yes as speculated mike, if true Seattle & Quebec are about to join the NHL and the league wants them entering in the same year at the same time then for sure Quebec's re-entry would be delayed while Seattle plays catch-up.... However, I see it a little differently than you perhaps in that Quebec is going to be ready by October 2015 whereas Seattle wont be until 2016 despite Hansens suggestion that he could get the building done within 12months if they got started this summer. Its entirely possible but I really think thats pushing it. Would be grand if they could pull it off, but the drag ropes on Quebec if they even do exist would be the league wanting the 2 clubs in at the same time, Seattle impeding, slowing down QC. Just get them in 2015, then follow with Seattle in 2016. I dont see any point in blowing millions retrofitting Key Arena & playing out of that mess of a barn for a year.

I dont see how. If the NHL is coming to Seattle in 2015, or in 2016 (and that's still a big IF). I'm pretty sure there'll be a ''double expansion''. (since it'll make everything easier, with only one expansion draft, and only remaking the schedule once, etc..) And this double expansion will undoubtably include Québec as team number 2... Therefore it's a quite short wait!

Ya. I dont know whats going on here, but Quebec is over a year ahead of Seattle & will be game ready like tomorrow. So if the leagues messing around waiting on Seattle with the Environmental Impact Study results & re-jigged MOU, purportedly in discussions with 4 known & serious ownership potentials and is merely wanting to get that situation solidified before announcing Quebec well then get on with it Boys. As in Giddyup Seattle. Your holding back Quebec who are already in the starting gates waiting to run the race.

Actually, no they would not throw cold water on it. The NHL is not led by dumb businessmen who want people to know they have no other options.

Ya, well, there are "options" and then there are "Red Herrings". Game Bettman & Daly play all the time when asked about Expansion or Relocation. They talk in abstractions. Cloaked. Close to the vest. I dont think Grahame Roustan had a hope in Hell of getting that building done in Markham much less ever securing a franchise. He lied, misled Council. Misled everybody. Claimed Bettman "endorsed" his plans. Letter fired off from the NHL's attorneys denying it, cease & desist, stop it already. Didnt do himself any favors. Claimed to be on the short-list in buying the Habs a few years back. Him, Peladeau & Molsons. News to everyone. Crazy. Same thing with other locales mentioned. Kansas City, Vegas.

 

[DJ Omnimaga]

Can we expect some announcement about an upcoming expansion in two weeks?

 

[Cotton]

Bigger puck? League expansion to 40 teams? Vegas!? More Canadian franchises, no more shootouts, then leave it alone.

 

[KevFu]

Bigger puck? League expansion to 40 teams? Vegas!? More Canadian franchises, no more shootouts, then leave it alone.

It's gonna take more American West franchises to get more Canadian East franchises.

In that context, I support expansion. If it takes Vegas to get Quebec, gimme Vegas.

 

[gstommylee]

Can we expect some announcement about an upcoming expansion in two weeks?

I doubt it. Seattle isn't ready yet.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

It's gonna take more American West franchises to get more Canadian East franchises.

In that context, I support expansion. If it takes Vegas to get Quebec, gimme Vegas.

I suspect the whole east/west balanced conference thing has considerably less impact on who gets an expansion team than people are thinking.

 

[MoreOrr]

I suspect the whole east/west balanced conference thing has considerably less impact on who gets an expansion team than people are thinking.

I second that. Alignment has never effected expansion before, so I doubt it will now.

 

[Killion]

I second that. Alignment has never effected expansion before, so I doubt it will now.

Third it.... though I wonder how that might flesh out MoreOrr, say if we had 31 teams one year, staggered Expansion, 32 the next.

 

[Fugu]

I suspect the whole east/west balanced conference thing has considerably less impact on who gets an expansion team than people are thinking.

Unless you're the NHL and you already know what the plan is three years out.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

Unless you're the NHL and you already know what the plan is three years out.

Of course the plan could be to go with 31 teams for the next 10 years, after all there IS precedent for it

 

[Mightygoose]

Unless you're the NHL and you already know what the plan is three years out.

I guess one can never know, so many possible scenarios out there. Hope the league makes a decsion soon otherwise this thread can be in risk of reaching 'mega' proportions

 

[Major4Boarding]

I second that. Alignment has never effected expansion before, so I doubt it will now.

Third it.... though I wonder how that might flesh out MoreOrr, say if we had 31 teams one year, staggered Expansion, 32 the next.

Unless you're the NHL and you already know what the plan is three years out.

I've been meaning to get this off my chest for some time now, but I also agree it could go either way.

What I've settled in on is Seattle and QC are your Expansion locations and the following are your later-on relocation/Expansion spots (Not all, just one of...) in the next 5-7 yrs.

Portland (WC Relo)
Hamilton (Expansion or Relo)
Vegas (EC Relo)
Houston (Expansion or Relo)
KC (???)

 

[Cotton]

I've been meaning to get this off my chest for some time now, but I also agree it could go either way.

What I've settled in on is Seattle and QC are your Expansion locations and the following are your later-on relocation/Expansion spots (Not all, just one of...) in the next 5-7 yrs.

Portland (WC Relo)
Hamilton (Expansion or Relo)
Vegas (EC Relo)
Houston (Expansion or Relo)
KC (???)

After Quebec, and Seattle because their west, Hamilton makes the most sense from all standpoints, and as a fan/traditionalist and Canadian it would make Vegas/KC ect an easier pill to swallow. With Rogers recent mega deal with the League I would think before it was signed they had long talks about the NHL's future and Canada, considering they are paying the NHL the most money (something like triple what NBC pays) I'd think, or like to, that there will be more north/south parity when it comes to expansion/relocation in the future. Bettman wanted that Rogers deal in the worst way, and I don't think Rogers cares about feeding Vegas to the markets that keep the league afloat, they'd want more local brands to sell.

 

[MoreOrr]

I'd like to go back to the few brief comments made about Milwaukee earlier in the thread, and ask these two questions:
1) What seriously is the potential that the Bucks might get relocated?
2) IF that happens, then could there be a potential that the NHL would get in and grab Milwaukee before the NBA might try to get back there?

Of course, the second question depends on the answer to the first.

 

[Killion]

What I've settled in on is Seattle and QC are your Expansion locations and the following are your later-on relocation/Expansion spots (Not all, just one of...) in the next 5-7 yrs.

Portland (WC Relo)
Hamilton (Expansion or Relo)
Vegas (EC Relo)
Houston (Expansion or Relo)
KC (???)

Ya, absolutely QC/Seattle, thereafter several possibilities but all with question marks. I think of the lot Portland Oregon would be the leading candidate and indeed if by some chance somehow Seattle cratered (highly unlikely but "if") then Portland could well be a fallback & or is already tentatively penciled in. Thereafter it gets muddy, complicated.

I just dont see KC (not as long as Mayor Sly James in office) or Las Vegas (the shades of Phoenix here are just so overwhelming its not funny, why would you invite what would surely be a welfare recipient & seriously challenged market into the fold? Doesnt make any sense).

Hamilton's a possibility however Im quite certain their going to need to build anew and thats just for starters. Secondly, I dont see them coming in on a Relocation be it through transfer with existing ownership or through sale to a new group. The Expansion Fee compared to a Relocation Fee alone precludes that eventuality IMO. Therefore my list would be;

1) Quebec City
2) Seattle

3) Portland
4) Hamilton

5) Milwaukee (I think the Bucks are done, prime hockey market - total retrofit of what theyve got or build new required)
6) Hartford (They could easily move up the charts with a new arena & serious owners)

7) Houston (Les Alexander, unless he pulls a 180, sells or dies...)
8) Austin (excellent market in terms of demographics, no known ownership interest, building plans Im aware of)
9) Oklahoma (building is newer, 18,000 for hockey however with NBA buildouts might now be on its way to another Key Arena situation)

 

[MoreOrr]

1) Quebec City
2) Seattle

3) Portland
4) Hamilton

5) Milwaukee (I think the Bucks are done, prime hockey market - total retrofit of what theyve got or build new required)
6) Hartford (They could easily move up the charts with a new arena & serious owners)

7) Houston (Les Alexander, unless he pulls a 180, sells or dies...)
8) Austin (excellent market in terms of demographics)
9) Oklahoma (building is newer, 18,000 for hockey however with NBA buildouts might now be on its way to another Key Arena situation)

I seriously think that Hartford will continue to be a 'no-go', unless one of the NYC area teams would relocate there. That general area is already densely packed with NHL teams as it is.

Also, though OKC would've likely been a great spot for the NHL if it had gotten there before the NBA, I simply can't see it as being large enough to support both major leagues, especially these two which have such overlapping Seasons. Tulsa is still the darkhorse market, in Oklahoma, that I see with some potential of getting an NHL team.

Perhaps, another longer shot option might be Birmingham, especially if the NHL thinks that it'll be a mighty long time before Atlanta ever gets attempted again.


Oh, and this, I didn't notice the comment about Les Alexander... At this point, I'm beginning to think that Houston might be more likely to get an NHL team after Alexander dies. He's just never put enough of an effort into getting an NHL team in order to make his bids acceptable to the NHL; and recently (over the past few years) there hasn't been anything heard from him with interest in the NHL (unless there was something I've missed or it's been kept secret).
Not saying that Houston won't get a team, but just that it might not happen under Les Alexander's watch.

 

[Major4Boarding]

I'd like to go back to the few brief comments made about Milwaukee earlier in the thread, and ask these two questions:
1) What seriously is the potential that the Bucks might get relocated?
2) IF that happens, then could there be a potential that the NHL would get in and grab Milwaukee before the NBA might try to get back there?

Of course, the second question depends on the answer to the first.

1) A lot of folks are putting it at 50/50 right now. Kohl is staunch on his wish to only sell the Bucks to a group committed to keeping the team there, iirc. The other matter is the new arena negotiations... well they're "talking" but the latest seems to be prodded along by Silver's comments last fall that the Bradley Center is "unfit for the League's current standards". Add in Kohl's comment that they're looking for a similar deal with the city like what went down in Sacramento.

2) I would think, and this is just me, that if the Bucks leave due to no new arena, that the NHL would not look favorably upon Milwaukee as a new location because of that (Bradley Center as is or even a renov). That said, if a new arena does get done then Bucks should stay. The question now becomes co-tenants?

 

[MNNumbers]

As I see it:

QC and Seattle are going to be expansion sites.

Arizona and Florida are potential relo franchises. AZ in 2018, FL in 2028. Therefore, the League has to have an internal list of possibilities for them.

KC - No, unless something changes there. City does better w/o team than with.
Vegas - Can't see it
Texas - Good ideas Houston and Austin, but no evidence brewing right now
Milwaukee after Bucks leave - Doubt it. Small area, not the strong Hockey part of WI, need a new arena. Just a tough thing. Might be ok if the arena were already there...
Hartford - Too many other teams nearby.

So, the good places seem to me to be Portland and Hamilton.

Can't really see anyplace else. But, who would have guessed Columbus?

 

[KevFu]

I've been meaning to get this off my chest for some time now, but I also agree it could go either way.
What I've settled in on is Seattle and QC are your Expansion locations and the following are your later-on relocation/Expansion spots (Not all, just one of...) in the next 5-7 yrs.
Portland (WC Relo)
Hamilton (Expansion or Relo)
Vegas (EC Relo)
Houston (Expansion or Relo)
KC (???)

I believe those are most of the markets they're looking at (Although, I think they'd do a second GTA before Hamilton)…

But I also think they're planning bigger than SEA/QUE.
-- Because if they weren't, why they wouldn't have struck while the iron was hot following the Coyotes/Glendale lease hearings?

There was momentum and excitement in Seattle, Hansen was talking about getting the MOU re-written; The potential ownership group, mayor McGinn and Bettman had talks and the Seattle Coyotes. And Quebec's basically ready to re-join at a moment's notice. There's really no reason NOT to have announced Seattle & Quebec as expansion teams already.

-- If you ARE going to expand bigger than SEA/QUE. You don't announce until you've got all 4 or 6 teams ready, and you don't announce QUE first. You announce the most and least popular expansion candidates at the same time:

If they said "we're expanding into Seattle and Quebec," the story is "Quebec returns!"
Then the next story when the NHL expands into Portland and Las Vegas" is "Vegas, WTF?"

If they said "we're expanding into Seattle and Portland" the story is "NHL in the Pacific northwest; a SEA-PORT rivalry, etc"
Then the next story when the NHL expands into Quebec & Las Vegas, is "Quebec returns! (Vegas? Who cares? Quebec returns!)"

I think it's SEA-PORT; then QUE/Vegas; and then…after a while at 34, it's GTA2/Houston once Rogers/Bell/Alexander and all those issues get sorted out. And then they'll sit at 36 for a loooooong time (with Hamilton, Kansas City as potential relocation cities).

 

[MoreOrr]

But I also think they're planning bigger than SEA/QUE.
-- Because if they weren't, why they wouldn't have struck while the iron was hot following the Coyotes/Glendale lease hearings?

There was momentum and excitement in Seattle, Hansen was talking about getting the MOU re-written; The potential ownership group, mayor McGinn and Bettman had talks and the Seattle Coyotes. And Quebec's basically ready to re-join at a moment's notice. There's really no reason NOT to have announced Seattle & Quebec as expansion teams already.

-- If you ARE going to expand bigger than SEA/QUE. You don't announce until you've got all 4 or 6 teams ready, and you don't announce QUE first. You announce the most and least popular expansion candidates at the same time:

If they said "we're expanding into Seattle and Quebec," the story is "Quebec returns!"
Then the next story when the NHL expands into Portland and Las Vegas" is "Vegas, WTF?"

If they said "we're expanding into Seattle and Portland" the story is "NHL in the Pacific northwest; a SEA-PORT rivalry, etc"
Then the next story when the NHL expands into Quebec & Las Vegas, is "Quebec returns! (Vegas? Who cares? Quebec returns!)"

I think it's SEA-PORT; then QUE/Vegas; and then…after a while at 34, it's GTA2/Houston once Rogers/Bell/Alexander and all those issues get sorted out. And then they'll sit at 36 for a loooooong time (with Hamilton, Kansas City as potential relocation cities).

I just can't see it, KevFu. This isn't 1965-66 with the League being very small and almost needing a huge expansion. I'm not saying that there won't be multiple (more than 2) expansion sites, but just not altogether or coming so close together that they essentially get announced at the same time. I'm personally hoping for a 6-team growth of the League, and I think it could well happen, but I'm imagining over the next 8-10 years. Something like two teams in 2016, another two in 2018, and then a final two in 2021-24.

Of course though, that could possibly mean 7 or 8 new locations, because there may also be at least 1 or 2 relocations. So in fact, the League may actually not make it to 36 teams in the next 10 years, because 8 new viable locations in North America probably don't exist. Therefore, I think a big part of the reason the League is holding off on expansion plans is that it wants to get a really good idea about what's going to transpire in Phoenix/Glendale and perhaps also in Florida. I still have this feeling that the Coyotes are eventually ending up in Portland (so that would take one strong expansion location off the list).

 

[KevFu]

I'm personally hoping for a 6-team growth of the League, and I think it could well happen, but I'm imagining over the next 8-10 years. Something like two teams in 2016, another two in 2018, and then a final two in 2021-24.

Oh, I didn't mean next week, they'd be like "Hey, 36."

I think they'd announce relatively "quickly" (and by that, I mean, within three years" of the first two; then the next two within another two years. then 8-10 years for Houston/Southern Ontario).

the League may actually not make it to 36 teams in the next 10 years, because 8 new viable locations in North America probably don't exist. Therefore, I think a big part of the reason the League is holding off on expansion plans is that it wants to get a really good idea about what's going to transpire in Phoenix/Glendale and perhaps also in Florida. I still have this feeling that the Coyotes are eventually ending up in Portland (so that would take one strong expansion location off the list).

Yeah, Allen seems interested at discount prices, not expansion prices.

I'd be cool with 34 teams, with Portland via relocation, SEA, Vegas, QUE and HOU. But it would take longer to get to 34.

But I think the interest in expanding beyond 32 goes away if you take SEA/QUE first.

 

[Killion]

Hartford... Also, though OKC would've likely been a great spot for the NHL if it had gotten there before the NBA, I simply can't see it as being large enough to support both major leagues, especially these two which have such overlapping Seasons. Tulsa is still the darkhorse market, in Oklahoma, that I see with some potential of getting an NHL team.... Perhaps, another longer shot option might be Birmingham, especially if the NHL thinks that it'll be a mighty long time before Atlanta ever gets attempted again.

Not convinced Hartford's a no hoper unless a NE team moves there MoreOrr. Ya its a crowded market but with Jacobs overarching influence he'd have good reas$on to want to see a team there, as would several other$..... And ya, could well be, likely are absolutely correct about Oklahoma City and we have discussed Tulsa in the past. Certainly intriguing, has a lot going for it including the recently opened Bank of Oklahoma Center (BOK) which has won numerous awards for design & management. Does about 17,000+ for hockey.... Not seeing Birmingham though. Economy, demographics, thats really pushing the river. We've discussed the tri-city area in and around Hampton, Virginia, and if they could ever their acts together that I think would work.

 

[MoreOrr]

Not convinced Hartford's a no hoper unless a NE team moves there MoreOrr. Ya its a crowded market but with Jacobs overarching influence he'd have good reas$on to want to see a team there, as would several other$..... And ya, could well be, likely are absolutely correct about Oklahoma City and we have discussed Tulsa in the past. Certainly intriguing, has a lot going for it including the recently opened Bank of Oklahoma Center (BOK) which has won numerous awards for design & management. Does about 17,000+ for hockey.... Not seeing Birmingham though. Economy, demographics, thats really pushing the river. We've discussed the tri-city area in and around Hampton, Virginia, and if they could ever their acts together that I think would work.

Of course if Jacobs is onboard with Hartford getting a team then that could make a difference. I was thinking more of the League as whole not seeing much benefit in putting another team there, though again Jacobs could be a difference-maker.

 

[Killion]

Of course if Jacobs is onboard with Hartford getting a team then that could make a difference. I was thinking more of the League as whole not seeing much benefit in putting another team there, though again Jacobs could be a difference-maker.

Ya, its hard to say. Jacobs is 74, all 3 of his sons involved in Delaware North, the Bruins etc at various levels. No idea what the succession plans might be. What one might expect from the heirs if they even wind up taking over the empire. So unless things start heating up in Hartford fairly quickly, or not if Jacobs is still sharper than a tack in 10yrs or more, who knows?... Several situations not dissimilar throughout the league that could alter the landscape considerably.