Dreger: Matt Duchene Mega-thread:Habs, NSH, NYI inquired - Part II

[JoemAvs]

Which is where Hutton comes in.

Young high end D doesn't mean the teams best prospect, if you think your getting a prospect that a team just drafted with a top 5 pick for a UFA in 2 seasons your absolutely insane.

Not only because that's my opinion, but if you look at what the market as dictated, you would likely see the same. Adam Larsson returned a better player than Duchene who had a much better contract situation. Why didn't New Jersey trade Adam Larsson years sooner for a player more comparable to Duchene?

Why did Nashville trade Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen instead of say Jason Spezza years earlier?

It never happens that way.

Well than I am absolutely insane I guess.

Honestly I wouldn't even take Juolevi because I am not a huge fan of him but I would understand if Sakic feels differently.

I personally take Duchene over Hall but that is probably me being a homer. But the two are not far off in value.

Everyone says Oilers got fleeced in the Hall for Larsson trade.

Ok. Lets say the Avs do get fleeced as well for Duchene.

Where is an Adam Larsson in your amazing proposals??

Where is a young, top pairing guy with a great contract ?

Hutton? Don't make me laugh please.

Give me Adam Larsson 10x out of 10 over the crappy offers that get posted in here on a daily basis.


Duchene would be your best forward after the Sedins retire. But asking for your top prospect in return is insane?


Spezza was over 30 and had a NTC IIRC. Ridiculous to compare him to Duchene.

But you are a lost cause.

To be honest I would want Juolevi ++ (one of them your 2018 1st).

Otherwise I prefer not to trade with Vancouver at all.

Now you can call me insane again. Keep dreaming. Ben Hutton + meh pieces.
Yeah right...


@ PG Canuck:

No I would not do that. Value is not bad but it simply does not fit what the Avs need. A young D (prospect) with top pairing potential under the age of 24.

 

[Boud]

Based on the asking price for Duchene I feel like the team acquiring him will regret giving up that much for him. He's a good player but bot as good as people make him to be.

As a player in 2017 he's about the equivalent of a guy like Turris. A little better offensively because he's faster but Turris is better defensively... Seems like people value Duchene a lot more than they should based on what he provides on the ice.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Well than I am absolutely insane I guess.

Honestly I wouldn't even take Juolevi because I am not a huge fan of him but I would understand if Sakic feels differently.

I personally take Duchene over Hall but that is probably me being a homer. But the two are not far off in value.

Everyone says Oilers got fleeced in the Hall for Larsson trade.

Ok. Lets say the Avs do get fleeced as well for Duchene.

Where is an Adam Larsson in your amazing proposals??

Where is a young, top pairing guy with a great contract ?

Hutton? Don't make me laugh please.

Give me Adam Larsson 10x out of 10 over the crappy offers that get posted in here on a daily basis.



Spezza was over 30 and had a NTC IIRC. Ridiculous to compare him to Duchene.

But you are a lost cause.

To be honest I would want Juolevi ++ (one of them your 2018 1st).

Otherwise I prefer not to trade with Vancouver at all.

Now you can call me insane again. Keep dreaming. Ben Hutton + meh pieces.
Yeah right...

I never said Hutton = Larsson, I wa piggybacking off your point about getting the best young D you can then going from there.

Is Hutton a top pairing defenseman right now? No. Was Adam Larsson in his 2nd season?

Could Hutton be? His development pattern since being drafted has been nothing but a sharp spike upward, so I think he could be a top pairing defenseman given he was amaaing last year and is now already a solid top 4 in his 2nd year.

And that's what your trading for right? that's what this whole basis is about? Trading for a young player (cost controlled) who can be at their best and help you in the future? I don't see how that doesn't describe Hutton.

Does he have the prestige of a top 5 pick? Is he a perceived slam dunk top pairing defenseman? no perhaps not. But that's not what Duchene is worth given his contract situation and his age. And even if Duchene was to swing a player like that lets say, you wouldn't be getting a good first round pick on top of that.

You took my comparisons completely out of context? But I'm a lost cause. The Spezza comparison wasn't about Spezza, it was about why did they not trade for a player like him or Ryan Kesler or whomever you want to bring up, instead of Ryan Johansen? Can you answer that question? Why would Nashville have wanted to trade Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen instead of a bit older player who has an uncertain future and while being very good still is not going to trend any further upward like Matt Duchene? Why is that?

Why did Phil Kessel return the package he did and not a top 5 pick? Kessel was available for quite awhile before he was finally delt was he not?

What about ROR?

Everyone wants an overpayment for their player. I wanted more for Corey Schnieder when we traded him, but there are more factors that go into it than just that and at the end of the day I'm more than happy with the trade.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Based on the asking price for Duchene I feel like the team acquiring him will regret giving up that much for him. He's a good player but bot as good as people make him to be.

As a player in 2017 he's about the equivalent of a guy like Turris. A little better offensively because he's faster but Turris is better defensively... Seems like people value Duchene a lot more than they should based on what he provides on the ice.

Does anyone think Duchene won't be better on a better team?

 

[JoemAvs]

I never said Hutton = Larsson, I wa piggybacking off your point about getting the best young D you can then going from there.

Is Hutton a top pairing defenseman right now? No. Was Adam Larsson in his 2nd season?

Could Hutton be? His development pattern since being drafted has been nothing but a sharp spike upward, so I think he could be a top pairing defenseman given he was amaaing last year and is now already a solid top 4 in his 2nd year.

And that's what your trading for right? that's what this whole basis is about? Trading for a young player (cost controlled) who can be at their best and help you in the future? I don't see how that doesn't describe Hutton.

Does he have the prestige of a top 5 pick? Is he a perceived slam dunk top pairing defenseman? no perhaps not. But that's not what Duchene is worth given his contract situation and his age. And even if Duchene was to swing a player like that lets say, you wouldn't be getting a good first round pick on top of that.

You took my comparisons completely out of context? But I'm a lost cause.

Why did Phil Kessel return the package he did and not a top 5 pick? Kessel was available for quite awhile before he was finally delt was he not?

What about ROR?

Well that is a Canucks homer projecting the upside of one of their young players.
Don't color me impressed.

He does no have close to the same value Larsson did when he was traded. And that is what we are talking about. Current value. Not what Hutton might be worth 2 years from now.

A piece like Hutton is nowhere near good enough as a centerpiece to fetch Duchene.

I don't care if you believe he shocks the world and wins a Norris in 3 years. He simply does not have close to enough value RIGHT NOW.


Keep trying to devalue Duchene. I mean I just had a laugh reading your board about Zadorov. Does not look like many Nucks fans watch Avs games.

Duchene has 2 years left AFTER this one. That is plenty of term.

If you want to devalue him because of his contract, you won't get him.

If you think the Avs are in some sort of desperate situation where they have to sell Duchene for cheap, you are sorely mistaken.

Toronto wanted to get rid of Kessel and he had a NTC and a retirement contract that people were scared off.

Not sure how that compares to Duchene at all. Because it really does not.

RyJo / Jones, ROR or even the Hall for Larsson trade are way better comparables than freaking Kessel.




And believe it or not. Avs fans still don't hate the ROR deal.

Zadorov looks like a stud right now. He is still raw but the hopes are very high.

Compher and Greer look amazing in the AHL right now.


You are not remotely offering a deal that is close to as good for us. And Duchene has way more value now than ROR had back when he was traded.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Well that is a Canucks homer projecting the upside of one of their young players.
Don't color me impressed.

He does no have close to the same value Larsson did when he was traded. And that is what we are talking about. Current value. Not what Hutton might be worth 2 years from now.

I don't care if you believe he shocks the world and wins a Norris in 3 years. He simply does not have close to enough value RIGHT NOW.

If you think the Avs are in some sort of desperate situation where they have to sell Duchene for cheap, you are sorely mistaken.

Because that's what I've been saying all along, yup. Hutton straight across for Duchene, just like Larsson/Hall.

No one has ever said Hutton has the same value as Duchene. And I never said the Avs were in a situation of needing move Duchene for less value. I'm pretty sure my original offer was very fair in value and would indicate the opposite of your assumption.

You seem to be arguing with your perception of what is going on not what I'm actually saying.

Keep trying to devalue Duchene. I mean I just had a laugh reading your board about Zadorov. Does not look like many Nucks fans watch Avs games.

Duchene has 2 years left AFTER this one. That is plenty of term.

2.5 years compared to Juolevi who hasn't even played in an NHL game and has his full RFA period ahead of him+.

Comparatively considering what your asking its not plenty of term at all.

If you want to devalue him because of his contract, you won't get him.

Toronto wanted to get rid of Kessel and he had a NTC and a retirement contract that people were scared off.

Not sure how that compares to Duchene at all. Because it really does not.

RyJo / Jones, ROR or even the Hall for Larsson trade are way better comparables than freaking Kessel.

And believe it or not. Avs fans still don't hate the ROR deal.

Zadorov looks like a stud right now. He is still raw but the hopes are very high.

Compher and Greer look amazing in the AHL right now.

Here's the thing, when it comes to other big names (which is my point with these examples), its the same thing and every time you end up not getting the overpayment you want.

Sure your happy with the pieces ROR returned, just like you could be happy with the pieces returned in a Duchene trade, but ROR didn't return the overpayment some people probably wanted when ROR first hit the market.

Kessel probably didn't return what Leafs fans wanted when he first hit the market.

Hall probably didn't return what Oilers fans wanted when he first hit the market.

There's reasons why and there are reasons why Duchene won't return a Juloevi+1st+ like overpayment either.

 

[JoemAvs]

Because that's what I've been saying all along, yup. Hutton straight across for Duchene, just like Larsson/Hall.

No one has ever said Hutton has the same value as Duchene. And I never said the Avs were in a situation of needing move Duchene for less value. I'm pretty sure my original offer was very fair in value and would indicate the opposite of your assumption.

You seem to be arguing with your perception of what is going on not what I'm actually saying.



2.5 years compared to Juolevi who hasn't even played in an NHL game and has his full RFA period ahead of him+.

Comparatively considering what your asking its not plenty of term at all.




Here's the thing, when it comes to other big names (which is my point with these examples), its the same thing and every time you end up not getting the overpayment you want.

Sure your happy with the pieces ROR returned, just like you could be happy with the pieces returned in a Duchene trade, but ROR didn't return the overpayment some people probably wanted when ROR first hit the market.

Kessel probably didn't return what Leafs fans wanted when he first hit the market.

Hall probably didn't return what Oilers fans wanted when he first hit the market.

There's reasons why and there are reasons why Duchene won't return a Juloevi+1st+ like overpayment either.

The flaw in your thinking is that you believe Juolevi+ 1st is overpayment for Duchene when it really isn't.

I would laugh at that offer if the Avs weren't in the position they are right now.

This is an unproven prospect + 1st for a 26 year old #1 C with zero questionmarks.

Not exactly a home run deal...


ROR got that with 1 year left on his contract and him rumored to want a 7.5-8M deal in UFA...

Zadorov was worth way more than Hutton is right now back then....

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

The flaw in your thinking is that you believe Juolevi+ 1st is overpayment for Duchene when it really isn't.

I would laugh at that offer if the Avs weren't in the position they are right now.

This is an unproven prospect + 1st for a 26 year old #1 C with zero questionmarks.

Not exactly a home run deal...


ROR got that with 1 year left on his contract and him rumored to want a 7.5-8M deal in UFA...

Zadorov was worth way more than Hutton is right now back then....

5th overall pick (highest we've had since the Sedins) just drafted plus another non-playoff first and potentially more for 2.5 years of Duchene. Not exactly a home run deal.

If you think my thinking is flawed then please list all the relevant comparables where players like Duchene have been traded for packages like Juolevi + 1st +

Re Bolded: How? Hutton is a better player now than Zadorov was when he was traded. Wouldn't the unproven aspect have taken away from Zadorovs value or are we viewing everything through what you think of Zadorov now?

 

[JoemAvs]

5th overall pick (highest we've had since the Sedins) just drafted plus another non-playoff first and potentially more for 2.5 years of Duchene. Not exactly a home run deal.

Re Bolded: How? Hutton is a better player now than Zadorov was when he was traded. Wouldn't the unproven aspect have taken away from Zadorovs value or are we viewing everything through what you think of Zadorov now?

Zadorov was pretty similar in value back then compared to what Juolevi is right now (IMO he even has had the better draft + 1 year in London). Funny how underrated he has become once he became Avs property...

How would you compare Juolevis current value to Hutton?


Jeff Carter for Voracek + #8 overall.
Mike Richards for Simmonds + Schenn (#5 overall)
RyJo for Seth Jones (#4 overall).
Hall for Larsson (#4 overall).

 

[cgf]

Does anyone think Duchene won't be better on a better team?

Yeah, apparently a lot of people around here. Can't really blame them for not watching this ****stick of a team to realize just how hard it's sucking the life out of everyone but Zads.

 

[Avsblitzkrieg]

Really though. I don't think we should justify ourselves with duchene. Pony up what's asked or walk away. The chabot+1st+ brown. You guys realise how it works right.. top that and he's yours. If not...dueces

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Zadorov was pretty similar in value back then compared to what Juolevi is right now (IMO he even has had the better draft + 1 year in London). Funny how underrated he has become once he became Avs property...

How would you compare Juolevis current value to Hutton?

I greatly disagree with that notion. Zadorov was a mid round pick, Juolevi was a top 5 pick. Juolevi's a much more complete and consistent player than Zadorov was.

Juolevi is going to be a really good player. Hampus Lindholm is a better comparison than Zadorov IMO. I would have Juolevi's value ahead of Hutton's right now because of pedigree but Hutton's development has been amazing (better than Zadorov's) and his trajectory is what I am banking on Juolevi having in the situation where I take Juolevi over Hutton, because Hutton has proved more at this level.

Jeff Carter for Voracek + #8 overall.
Mike Richards for Simmonds + Schenn (#5 overall)
RyJo for Seth Jones (#4 overall).
Hall for Larsson (#4 overall)

Hall for Larsson & Ryjo for Seth Jones aren't comparable to Juolevi+1st+ for Duchene.

Mike Richards and Jeff Carter were signed long term. And while Voracek was a high pick he wasn't a freshly drafted top 5 pick that hadn't played a game. Simmonds wasn't what he was now when he was traded. Schenn and the pick are the best part of it for your case but those deals don't really happen anymore, they seem to be the exception not the norm.

For example, Jeff Carter was traded again that same season and yielded a lesser return, yet he's was just as good a player as he proved with LA.

Another massive difference too with the Richards one, (and the Carter trade) is they were making those moves as the final pieces to a cup. The demand was high so they got a great price.

In this case we aren't winning the cup by trading Juolevi, a roster player and another first for Duchene. Now teams have learned the impact the cap has and they know that they can't take those kind of risks.

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

I greatly disagree with that notion. Zadorov was a mid round pick, Juolevi was a top 5 pick. Juolevi's a much more complete and consistent player than Zadorov was.

Juolevi is going to be a really good player. Hampus Lindholm is a better comparison than Zadorov IMO. I would have Juolevi's value ahead of Hutton's right now because of pedigree but Hutton's development has been amazing (better than Zadorov's) and his trajectory is what I am banking on Juolevi having in the situation where I take Juolevi over Hutton, because Hutton has proved more at this level.



Hall for Larsson & Ryjo for Seth Jones aren't comparable to Juolevi+1st+ for Duchene.

Mike Richards and Jeff Carter were signed long term. And while Voracek was a high pick he wasn't a freshly drafted top 5 pick that hadn't played a game. Simmonds wasn't what he was now when he was traded. Schenn and the pick are the best part of it for your case but those deals don't really happen anymore, they seem to be the exception not the norm.

For example, Jeff Carter was traded again that same season and yielded a lesser return, yet he's was just as good a player as he proved with LA.

Another massive difference too with the Richards one, (and the Carter trade) is they were making those moves as the final pieces to a cup. The demand was high so they got a great price.

In this case we aren't winning the cup by trading Juolevi, a roster player and another first for Duchene. Now teams have learned the impact the cap has and they know that they can't take those kind of risks.

I think people underrate the Canucks prospects. It comes with being a top tier franchise. There are a lot of haters.

With Tanev Juolevi and Hutton all as #1 D on most teams by the 2019 season I could see them being better than the 2011 team. Vancouverites get your car insurance renewed by June!

 

[Foppberg]

Okay, Avs fans lets settle this.

Question 1: Would you trade Matt Duchene for Hutton+Granlund+Virtanen+1st+something else as a cherry on top

A simple yes or no will suffice.


Question 2: Do you think Duchene could return more than that?


A simple answer of easily, maybe, or hell no would suffice.

1) Hell no.

2) Yes.

 

[hockeyfish]

Wow, a 2nd thread. Duchene has to be worth a mediocre prospect now. If we get a few more threads, we might get a pick too!!

 

[Avsblitzkrieg]

1. Hell No

2. Yes

 

[PAZ]

I greatly disagree with that notion. Zadorov was a mid round pick, Juolevi was a top 5 pick. Juolevi's a much more complete and consistent player than Zadorov was.

Zadarov had a year under his belt playing top 4 minutes without looking out of place. Juolevi has draft pedigree, but so do players like Ryan Murray and Gudbranson.

Hall for Larsson & Ryjo for Seth Jones aren't comparable to Juolevi+1st+ for Duchene.

You're right, they're not comparable. Larsson/Jones > Juolevi+1st+.


Mike Richards and Jeff Carter were signed long term. And while Voracek was a high pick he wasn't a freshly drafted top 5 pick that hadn't played a game. Simmonds wasn't what he was now when he was traded. Schenn and the pick are the best part of it for your case but those deals don't really happen anymore, they seem to be the exception not the norm.

Don't really follow your logic. Voracek had 2 ~50 point seasons before the trade while having top 10 draft pedigree. If you think Schenn+pick is an exception, care to give some examples of players of Duchene's caliber and age being traded for less?

For example, Jeff Carter was traded again that same season and yielded a lesser return, yet he's was just as good a player as he proved with LA.

He was traded again because he was visibly dogging it in Columbus, which decreased his value by quite a bit. Not close to the same situation Duchene is in right now.

Another massive difference too with the Richards one, (and the Carter trade) is they were making those moves as the final pieces to a cup. The demand was high so they got a great price.

You don't think teams like Montreal are looking to grab Duchene as the final piece to a cup?

In this case we aren't winning the cup by trading Juolevi, a roster player and another first for Duchene. Now teams have learned the impact the cap has and they know that they can't take those kind of risks.

Well, at least you know the Canucks aren't winning a cup anytime soon. Teams have learned the impact the cap has, but continue to trade away youth for rentals like Yandle, Lucic, Ladd, etc. If you aren't willing to pay the price a cup contender would to put them over the top, than you're offer is going to be beat. That's all there is to it.

Responses in bold.

 

[Boud]

Does anyone think Duchene won't be better on a better team?

There's a difference between getting a player with the hopes that he becomes better and paying the price of a better player and hoping that the said player lives up to the expectations.

Reality is also that Duchene has played throughtout his career with extremely good players, most probably players that are better or if not as good as the players he'll play with on another team. I think GMs at this point have a very good idea of what Duchene can or cannot do. Duchene has good value but let's not get over ourselves here.


Rutherford was thrilled to get Kessel at that price I bet, but there's no way a team would've paid a premium for him in hope that he becomes better.

I think Avs NEED to extract a lot value out of Duchene on the market, but I doubt Colorado gets as much as some offers we've seen so far. Again Duchene is a good player but in the end he's a faster Kyle Turris that's less responsible defensively. I wouldn't give a 1rst, young top 4 defensemen and a top prospect for that ever in my life

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I don't think Montreal has what it takes unless Sergachev +++++

Nashville is interesting. They have young D.

Canucks? Please. Don't think they have anything to offer at all to be honest. Juolevi? Just cuz he was picked 5th doesn't mean much... Juolevi plus 2017 1st + 2018 first and maybe even plus Demko is what it would take more than likely

 

[strictlyrandy]

Interesting comparing Turris to Duchene. At the time Turris returned a a top D prospect and a 2nd. Turris had just signed after holding out. He was traded less than a month after signing. He had shown to already fallen out of favor. At the time of his trade he hadn't accomplished much. Duchene has more value than Turris. Duchene is a better player as well. A top prospect, a pick, and a roster player isn't really asking that much.

 

[PG Canuck]

If you have to go to every depth to convince people your offer is good, then it's probably not very good.

 

[Spade]

If you have to go to every depth to convince people your offer is good, then it's probably not very good.

Quoted for truth.

Duchene might not be seen as an elite player by many, but in the hockey world he's an Olympian and one of the top forwards in the world. Yes he's tailed off since but he's still a top 30 center in the league and the best center available on the market by a long shot.

Tanev/Edler/Hutton, a first rounder and a handful of players worth mid round picks probably isn't going to get the job done, not when the other party is dangling a young, relatively cost efficient center.

 

[Fazkovsky]

Sergachev + what exactly is needed ? Clarify avs fans

 

[EdAVSfan]

Sergachev + what exactly is needed ? Clarify avs fans

I'd have to assume at least a 1st and a top 9 forward. If that forward is more of a dump than an actual decent player with a future in Colorado (DD or Plek) then add another decent prospect.

 

[Avelanche]

based on the asking price for duchene i feel like the team acquiring him will regret giving up that much for him. He's a good player but bot as good as people make him to be.

As a player in 2017 he's about the equivalent of a guy like turris. A little better offensively because he's faster but turris is better defensively... Seems like people value duchene a lot more than they should based on what he provides on the ice.

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