Martin Brodeur....Overrated?

Crosbyfan

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Brodeur does not seem to get enough credit for having been by far the best third defence men in the game. That, even more than his rebound control, has reduced his shots on goal.

To paratwistaphrase Gretzky... "You save 100% of the saves you don't have to make"

But they don't show up in save percentage
 

Merya

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Brodeur does not seem to get enough credit for having been by far the best third defence men in the game. That, even more than his rebound control, has reduced his shots on goal.

I think Turco was even better with his stick, but lacked somewhat in other areas compared to Brodeur. Longevity is definitely one of Brodeurs strong points, but unlike a previous posted implied, Hasek matched Brodeur in that.
Brodeur was probably second or third best in every aspect of goaltending for most of his career. He was never really clearly the best of the best. Perhaps he lacked the flash in the pan. Not a "sexy" choice for anything.
 

The Panther

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Because mathematically it makes perfect sense.

GAA is just error rate (1 - sv%) times shots against per game.

Looking at it that way, it should be clear it's just a rehashing of save percentage itself, made even less useful (regardless of how useful one considers sv% to begin with)
I don't agree with this. There are countless unrecorded and unseen (in stats) factors and variables that go into an individual goaltender's performance. The most important stat is wins. The next is GAA, which reflects the whole team. Save-percentage is nice and everything, and, in extreme outlier cases (i.e., Hasek in late-90s) is hugely impressive and noteworthy, but largely it's just meaningless numbers. (I don't think save-percentage is necessarily any more an individual stat than is GAA.)
 

quoipourquoi

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Brodeur does not seem to get enough credit for having been by far the best third defence men in the game. That, even more than his rebound control, has reduced his shots on goal.

To paratwistaphrase Gretzky... "You save 100% of the saves you don't have to make"

But they don't show up in save percentage

Wouldn't that be reflected in Marty Turco's save percentages too, meaning that he was even better in 2002-03 than his already much more impressive numbers too? Typically we don't see a goaltender playing as well as Turco was having to field media questions about another goaltender never winning the Vezina Trophy, as if it was owed to him.

I mean, 7 first-place Vezina votes in 2001 and a top-5 Hart finish? I guess if people found a ho-hum season like that to be that impressive, it only makes sense that his improvement in 2003 and 2004 made him receive the praise typically reserved for big margin save percentage leaders.

Seriously though... Martin Brodeur's 2000-01. Can someone explain the appeal?
 

DickSmehlik

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One thing that needs to be considered in regards to Brodeur's save percentage is that New Jersey's shot counter was by far the stingiest in the league for a majority of Brodeur's tenure there.

If he had a league average shot counter his save percentage would have gone up to around .920.

I've seen similar posts like this and I don't agree.

New Jersey consistently finished in the top 2 regarding shots allowed during Brodeur's tenure (save for the last few seasons). And when you looked at shots allowed on the road, New Jersey was also consistently one of the best teams.

So unless there was a shot counter conspiracy in the other 29 arenas, I am not buying it.
 

Doctor No

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I don't agree with this. There are countless unrecorded and unseen (in stats) factors and variables that go into an individual goaltender's performance. The most important stat is wins. The next is GAA, which reflects the whole team. Save-percentage is nice and everything, and, in extreme outlier cases (i.e., Hasek in late-90s) is hugely impressive and noteworthy, but largely it's just meaningless numbers. (I don't think save-percentage is necessarily any more an individual stat than is GAA.)

What? Huh?

Wins reflect the whole team.

The best thing that I can say about your save percentage conclusion is that it's consistent with the rest of the comments.
 

BM67

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I've seen similar posts like this and I don't agree.

New Jersey consistently finished in the top 2 regarding shots allowed during Brodeur's tenure (save for the last few seasons). And when you looked at shots allowed on the road, New Jersey was also consistently one of the best teams.

So unless there was a shot counter conspiracy in the other 29 arenas, I am not buying it.

Here are the Devils home/road GF and GA and SOG over 14 seasons. The S% are for both teams combined.

Year|H GF|H GA|H SF|H SA|R GF|R GA|R SF|R SA|H S%|R S%
1998-99|123|102|1309|947|125|94|1256|1079|9.97%|9.38%
1999-00|133|92|1365|1003|118|111|1352|1098|9.50%|9.35%
2000-01|145|92|1288|956|150|103|1302|1068|10.56%|10.68%
2001-02|112|88|1131|892|93|99|1314|1008|9.89%|8.27%
2002-03|121|85|1301|904|95|81|1298|1031|9.34%|7.56%
2003-04|107|87|1180|921|106|77|1255|1078|9.23%|7.84%
2005-06|121|104|1156|1122|112|121|1244|1276|9.88%|9.25%
2006-07|101|93|1133|1063|105|100|1221|1269|8.83%|8.23%
2007-08|104|93|1190|1078|94|100|1172|1179|8.69%|8.25%
2008-09|134|97|1324|1152|104|110|1374|1263|9.33%|8.12%
2009-10|123|87|1179|1026|93|99|1280|1187|9.52%|7.78%
2010-11|92|100|1173|1074|79|107|1171|1110|8.54%|8.15%
2011-12|111|102|1134|1074|105|103|1119|1125|9.65%|9.27%
2012-13|64|58|685|548|46|64|677|562|9.89%|8.88%
2013-14|105|86|1075|999|92|109|1124|1094|9.21%|9.06
Total|1696|1366|17623|14759|1517|1478|18159|16427|9.46%|8.66%
T/GP|2.84|2.28|29.47|24.68|2.54|2.47|30.37|27.47|9.46%|8.66%

SV% are higher for both teams in Devils' road games with an additional 3.7 shots per game over the Devils' home average.

2.3% more goals in Devils' home games on 6.8% fewer shots over 14 seasons.
 

Canadiens1958

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Carey Price

What? Huh?

Wins reflect the whole team.

Suggest looking at the 2015-16 Canadiens data re Carey Price and his replacements
Mike Condon and Dustin Tokarski.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/MTL/2016.html

Team has allowed fever SOGs per game with the back-ups - Condon and Tokarski, but is losing. Why?QS data shows part of the story.

Condon and Tokarski have weak rebound control and poor puck handling skills. How can the team compensate for these shortcomings? Without impacting their offensive or even their defensive game?

Basically same situation with Brodeur throughout his career.
 

Michael Farkas

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I would say that wins is the best stat we have to reflect timeliness of goaltending, and maybe even, to a lesser extent, quality of goals against.

Goaltenders should not be measured in saves, saves don't win games. You can't get enough saves to exchange them for one less goal against or anything. There's no exchange rate. Goals against lose games.

In my experience as player, and more so, coach, nothing affects a bench more (positively or negatively, either direction) than a bad goal against. Nothing is more deflating. You give up one early, you're chasing the whole game. You give up one late, you lose the game. Bad goals, more than regular goals against, more than highlight goals for, more than great saves, big hits, a fight...nothing has more emotional effect on a game than a bad goal against.

This was my rail against Tim Thomas in the past, it's the only case that can really be made against Hasek in the playoffs...you even look at his last goal in Buffalo, the Kasparaitis wrist shot from the top of the circle that just wafts past him in game 7, in overtime, at home, against a player of Kasparaitis' caliber...that can't go in. And even if he made 70 saves in regulation to help the game get into overtime, that goal can't go...

Patrick Lalime is another one, Roman Cechmanek is another recent example...you can finish with 10 shutouts in the regular season, you can stop 93% of your shots, but if in a big spot, when advanced scouting is on to your tendencies, players are learning what it is you do over the course of seven straight games, if you can't adapt, you're going to get found out pretty quick and a lot of bad goals are going in...

Martin Brodeur, naturally, had a long career and therefore bad goals happen from time to time...but he never made it a habit...he was highly adaptable, maybe the most intelligent goaltender I've ever seen, best rebound control I've ever seen (which is worth its weight in gold). See, the higher you go, the more predictable the game becomes as a coach and a player. Random noise in games dissipates as you get higher. Martin Brodeur's rebound control and stickhandling is what made the Devils system work as well as it did. Normally it's the goalie that's the product of the system, but you have to evaluate the talent behind the system still to get an accurate look about who is the cart and who is the horse (see: this current defensive Montreal team...Carey Price, cool as a cucumber, great rebound control, predictable game for his defensemen...not out all over the place, not making poor plays out of the net, rebounds are tidy...now, you get these two-bit schlubs that come in there, yeah, in small doses, you can insulate them and they'll get a high save pct. [didn't Condon lead the league in save pct. earlier this season or some such?] but over time, poor talent gets found out, insulation breaks down, the unpredictable nature of this goaltender(s) technical abilities causes too much randomness to account for...

This wasn't the case with Brodeur, Brodeur was always on point (ya know, sans the retirement year of course). No stop, drop and hope...no rebound regurgitation...didn't let in bad goals up high because he just dropped at the slightest flinch of a wrist...you really can't ask for a better prototype for a goaltender. Athletic, intelligent, great with the stick, can play from his knees, play well from standup, used different styles as save selections instead of pure style (like Roy with his butterfly, Hasek with his acrobatic style, etc.).

Probably not a more complete goalie has come along since, what, Plante? Certainly none in my time.

You can't hitch your wagon entirely save pct. and pretend like its not system-dependent like GAA and wins are...you can't assume every shot is created equal every night. Is there a better metric? Perhaps not yet. But that doesn't excuse limping along with it as a crutch, nor does it excuse undermining one of the best to ever play the game. That is gross misunderstanding of the game and the position.
 

Doctor No

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Oh, I'm fully in agreement that save percentage is not team-independent (lest anyone think I believe otherwise).

Wins, though? You're right that saves can't be exchanged for goals against, but they also can't be exchanged for goals for.
 

Canadiens1958

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Yes

Oh, I'm fully in agreement that save percentage is not team-independent (lest anyone think I believe otherwise).

Wins, though? You're right that saves can't be exchanged for goals against, but they also can't be exchanged for goals for.

Saves can be converted(exchanged) into offensive opportunities(transition game) resulting in goals and wins. Review the 2015-16 Canadiens, stats and game films.
 

Canadiens1958

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Excellent

I would say that wins is the best stat we have to reflect timeliness of goaltending, and maybe even, to a lesser extent, quality of goals against.

Goaltenders should not be measured in saves, saves don't win games. You can't get enough saves to exchange them for one less goal against or anything. There's no exchange rate. Goals against lose games.

In my experience as player, and more so, coach, nothing affects a bench more (positively or negatively, either direction) than a bad goal against. Nothing is more deflating. You give up one early, you're chasing the whole game. You give up one late, you lose the game. Bad goals, more than regular goals against, more than highlight goals for, more than great saves, big hits, a fight...nothing has more emotional effect on a game than a bad goal against.

This was my rail against Tim Thomas in the past, it's the only case that can really be made against Hasek in the playoffs...you even look at his last goal in Buffalo, the Kasparaitis wrist shot from the top of the circle that just wafts past him in game 7, in overtime, at home, against a player of Kasparaitis' caliber...that can't go in. And even if he made 70 saves in regulation to help the game get into overtime, that goal can't go...

Patrick Lalime is another one, Roman Cechmanek is another recent example...you can finish with 10 shutouts in the regular season, you can stop 93% of your shots, but if in a big spot, when advanced scouting is on to your tendencies, players are learning what it is you do over the course of seven straight games, if you can't adapt, you're going to get found out pretty quick and a lot of bad goals are going in...

Martin Brodeur, naturally, had a long career and therefore bad goals happen from time to time...but he never made it a habit...he was highly adaptable, maybe the most intelligent goaltender I've ever seen, best rebound control I've ever seen (which is worth its weight in gold). See, the higher you go, the more predictable the game becomes as a coach and a player. Random noise in games dissipates as you get higher. Martin Brodeur's rebound control and stickhandling is what made the Devils system work as well as it did. Normally it's the goalie that's the product of the system, but you have to evaluate the talent behind the system still to get an accurate look about who is the cart and who is the horse (see: this current defensive Montreal team...Carey Price, cool as a cucumber, great rebound control, predictable game for his defensemen...not out all over the place, not making poor plays out of the net, rebounds are tidy...now, you get these two-bit schlubs that come in there, yeah, in small doses, you can insulate them and they'll get a high save pct. [didn't Condon lead the league in save pct. earlier this season or some such?] but over time, poor talent gets found out, insulation breaks down, the unpredictable nature of this goaltender(s) technical abilities causes too much randomness to account for...

This wasn't the case with Brodeur, Brodeur was always on point (ya know, sans the retirement year of course). No stop, drop and hope...no rebound regurgitation...didn't let in bad goals up high because he just dropped at the slightest flinch of a wrist...you really can't ask for a better prototype for a goaltender. Athletic, intelligent, great with the stick, can play from his knees, play well from standup, used different styles as save selections instead of pure style (like Roy with his butterfly, Hasek with his acrobatic style, etc.).

Probably not a more complete goalie has come along since, what, Plante? Certainly none in my time.

You can't hitch your wagon entirely save pct. and pretend like its not system-dependent like GAA and wins are...you can't assume every shot is created equal every night. Is there a better metric? Perhaps not yet. But that doesn't excuse limping along with it as a crutch, nor does it excuse undermining one of the best to ever play the game. That is gross misunderstanding of the game and the position.

Excellent analysis. Point is that insulating a weak goalie comes at a cost offensively.

Poor puck handling means that the defencemen are not getting the puck as cleanly for the transition game. Weak rebound control means that predictability is lost in terms of where rebounds are directed and wingers have to collapse to the slot to compensate. This comes at the cost of time and space in the transition game.
 

vadim sharifijanov

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I would say that wins is the best stat we have to reflect timeliness of goaltending, and maybe even, to a lesser extent, quality of goals against.

Goaltenders should not be measured in saves, saves don't win games. You can't get enough saves to exchange them for one less goal against or anything. There's no exchange rate. Goals against lose games.

In my experience as player, and more so, coach, nothing affects a bench more (positively or negatively, either direction) than a bad goal against. Nothing is more deflating. You give up one early, you're chasing the whole game. You give up one late, you lose the game. Bad goals, more than regular goals against, more than highlight goals for, more than great saves, big hits, a fight...nothing has more emotional effect on a game than a bad goal against.

.... Tim Thomas ...Hasek in the playoffs...

Patrick Lalime ... Roman Cechmanek

seems like luongo, a guy whom some people say deserved at least one of brodeur's vezinas (and i don't necessarily disagree), belongs in this post. a legacy built on gaudy save totals and sv% but probably 9 of his 10 most memorable performances are games he lost on one or multiple backbreaking goals.
 

Michael Farkas

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Luongo has had an interesting career arc. I liked him in early Florida. In Vancouver, he changed it seemed. Sitting on the goalline, getting eaten alive by mid-range shots. Just seemed uncomfortable, almost distracted...
 

vadim sharifijanov

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^ there was personal life stuff, definitely. but re: style, they didn't retain his goalie coach and brought in melanson, who was great with our young guys but kept trying to change luongo's already vezina-level game. a lot of that team not getting over the hump can be traced to too much intervention by the coaching staff.

reportedly, luongo would spend all summer working with francois allaire, then melanson would try to undo all of that in training camp.
 

Michael Farkas

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That explains a lot, I didn't know all that. I saw a very uncomfortable and unsure goalie for most of his time in Vancouver...unfortunate that it went down that way...looks better in Florida, more confident in Florida...especially the first swing through...but the spotlight was brighter in Vancouver on him, hope it doesn't ding is resume too much...
 

seventieslord

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I don't agree with this. There are countless unrecorded and unseen (in stats) factors and variables that go into an individual goaltender's performance. The most important stat is wins. The next is GAA, which reflects the whole team. Save-percentage is nice and everything, and, in extreme outlier cases (i.e., Hasek in late-90s) is hugely impressive and noteworthy, but largely it's just meaningless numbers. (I don't think save-percentage is necessarily any more an individual stat than is GAA.)

I don't know how much more simply I could have stated the relationship between GAA and sv% in my post. You're either ignoring it or showing a fundamental misunderstanding of numbers and/or statistics and/or logic.

There is no logical reason to consider GAA as more useful than sv%... At all.
 

Doctor No

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There is no logical reason to consider GAA as more useful than sv%... At all.

I agree with your derivation, although I think that one could consider GAA as useful (vis a vis save percentage) to the extent that one believes that (1) a goaltender can influence the number of shots faced, or (2) a goaltender is affected by a scorer's over/undercounting of shots faced. Both of which have been attributed to Brodeur, at varying levels.
 

Canadiens1958

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1956-57 NHL Stats Package

I don't know how much more simply I could have stated the relationship between GAA and sv% in my post. You're either ignoring it or showing a fundamental misunderstanding of numbers and/or statistics and/or logic.

There is no logical reason to consider GAA as more useful than sv%... At all.

1956-57 NHL weekly stats package contained SV% numbers and GAA numbers. About a month into the 1957-58 season the SV% numbers were dropped.

Basic issue was(and still is) the fact that a goal regardless of where it is scored from on the ice or by which player, does not change in value. Always worth one goal.

A save(SOG) on the other hand has variable values. Numerous examples of this abound. Save on a (SOG)breakaway in a tied game has more value then stopping an iced puck that qualifies as a SOG would be the most extreme but you get the drift.

Also the NHL teams at that time were tracking SOGs at that time, their provenance and their results. The high percentage shooting areas were known as well as the resulting SV% and GAA.
SV%
 

Doctor No

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1956-57 NHL weekly stats package contained SV% numbers and GAA numbers. About a month into the 1957-58 season the SV% numbers were dropped.

Basic issue was(and still is) the fact that a goal regardless of where it is scored from on the ice or by which player, does not change in value. Always worth one goal.

A save(SOG) on the other hand has variable values. Numerous examples of this abound. Save on a (SOG)breakaway in a tied game has more value then stopping an iced puck that qualifies as a SOG would be the most extreme but you get the drift.

If your goal is to track team performance, then yes, I agree 100% that goals allowed is the more valuable metric. I thought our discussion here was about how to isolate a goaltender's performance and contribution to a victory.

(By the way, if we agree that the ultimate team reward is a "win" and not a number of goals, then it's not true that all goals have the same value. Numerous examples of this abound, as you'd say.)
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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There is no logical reason to consider GAA as more useful than sv%... At all.

A goalie's job is to prevent goals, whether by stopping a shot or by preventing the shot from occurring.

It is also true that a goal is an objective fact (yes, subject to subjective rules, blah blah), but what constitutes a "shot" is highly subjective and consistently varies from scorekeeper to scorekeeper.

The ideal measure would be GAA, normalized by quality of team defense, but of course, normalizing for team defense is basically impossible. So we use Save % as a crutch, but don't pretend that save % accounts for everything that a goalie does to affect GAA.
 

Canadiens1958

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Both

If your goal is to track team performance, then yes, I agree 100% that goals allowed is the more valuable metric. I thought our discussion here was about how to isolate a goaltender's performance and contribution to a victory.

(By the way, if we agree that the ultimate team reward is a "win" and not a number of goals, then it's not true that all goals have the same value. Numerous examples of this abound, as you'd say.)

It is both. Fail to see why someone would even separate the two. But then I learned hockey in Montreal where the culture was dominated by the simple GAA when it was a team stat. Team with the best GAA had the best chance of winning approach.
 

Voight

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I find at times hes overrated. His Vezinas came in a bit of a weaker era for goalies and each year he won there was at least another goalie who had just as good of a season (Turco, Turco/Luongo, Luongo, Nabby) so it isnt as if he was head and shoulders above everyone else. Thats before getting into the team argument which has already been covered.
 

Doctor No

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It is both. Fail to see why someone would even separate the two. But then I learned hockey in Montreal where the culture was dominated by the simple GAA when it was a team stat. Team with the best GAA had the best chance of winning approach.

Yes, teams with the best GAA have the best chance of winning - that's pretty much a literal translation of what I just said (and what you just responded to).

The question then becomes: for teams with a low GAA, how much of the credit belongs to the goaltender, and how much belongs to his teammates?

(Also not sure why where one learned hockey is relevant, other than as an appeal to authority somehow. I learned hockey primarily in Bellingham, WA, and Boulder, CO, in case you'd like to know).
 

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