Prospect Info: Marner Magic about to take OHL by kNight -All purpose thread

[dubey]

Carolina forums ---->


This guys' username used to be Hanifin btw, for those of you who don't know.

Sad lol

 

[TheProspector]

Top seasons ever by OHL players entering the season <=18yo by points per game:

1. Connor McDavid, 2.5
2. Patrick Kane, 2.5
3. Sam Gagner, 2.2
4. Jason Spezza, 2.05
5. John Tavares, 2
   [*]Mitchell Marner, 2
   
6. Dylan Strome, 1.9
7. Taylor Hall, 1.87
8. David Legwand, 1.78
9. Kyle Wellwood, 1.74
10. Steven Stamkos, 1.72
11. Bryan Little, 1.7
12. Tyler Seguin, 1.68
13. Nail Yakupov, 1.64

But, "TheProspector!", you exclaim; "that does not account for changes in scoring league wide over the years!" And, by Stalin's whiskers, you'd be right, comrade. So I'll recalculate the list based off of alpha -- scoring percentage of league average.

1. Patrick Kane, 330%
2. Connor McDavid, 322%
3. Jason Spezza, 294%
4. Sam Gagne, 294%
5. John Tavares, 278%
6. Taylor Hall, 263%
   [*]Mitchell Marner, 253%
   
7. David Legwand, 251%
8. Kyle Wellwood, 243%
9. Steven Stamkos, 240%
10. Dylan Strome, 239%
11. Tyler Seguin, 238%
12. Bryan Little, 229%
13. Nail Yakupov, 229%

Yes, it's true: Marner hasn't shown a lot in the exactly two pre-season games he's suited up for so far. But the 16P in 7 post-season GP, and 126P in 63GP is the correct reference point to judge from. This kid ain't far from being one of the best ever. He's already in their midst.

 

[FlareKnight]

I'll say it would have been fun if Marner just lit up the pre-season regardless of the plan to send him down anyways.

But, it makes sense that it'll take a while. The guy isn't physically NHL ready and that will make it tough playing out there against guys who are. Let's see where he is next year. Wouldn't be surprised to see him making a serious impact in the next training camp. A year of development for someone that skilled will be huge.

I look forward to seeing this guy when he's at his prime since that should be pretty cool.

 

[ConnorTO]

hanifins still on the team

 

[Leafs at Knight]

hanifins still on the team

Same with Luke Schenn in his first year, so what ?

 

[Gabriel426]

Just bc someone is more ready for the NHL does not mean he is better. Prospects develop differently. Playing in the NHL as an 18 yrs old rookie or as a 22 yrs old rookie is still the same as long as you show you belong. If Marner is ready by 21 and comes into NHL and be in the top 10 in scoring for the rest of his career, I would gladly take that over him being on the Leafs as an 18 yrs old and struggles for a few yrs before hitting strides and then only hits top 10 in scoring a few times in his career.

 

[Woll Smoth]

A 160 lbs Marner was never going to make the NHL right after being drafted. Those who expected it probably never watched him play (or got caught in the 4th OA hype) and didn't realize how hard it would be to play the same style against bigger stronger players.

Marner needs to add some size and more specifically some strength to his legs so he can become an explosive skater, he needs to be able to battle against NHL sized defence men, and he needs to develop at least 1 whole year as a centre in the OHL if they want to eventually bring him in as a centre on the Leafs.

I could see him having a much better camp next season, considering he's got an idea of what he's going up against, and hopefully he can come in more confident than he did this year. If reports of him being 170 lbs now, I'm hoping he can add another 10-15 as he fills out his frame and puts in more work in the weight room.

Another year in Jr isn't a setback or a sign of failure, it's what was expected (from me at least) since the moment he was drafted.

 

[RyanOhReally]

hanifins still on the team

Omg book it, Canes win Stanley Cup because they picked the more obviously ready prospect. You know, if the Leafs had picked Hanifin, Bettman would already be giving us a cup. Rebuild would have been over.

 

[Atomos2]

Definitely don't think Marner will score as much this year. I think he'll be focused on his overall game more so that will lead to less offensive output but he'll be better because of it.

I dunno. That London team he's going to looks really good.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Honestly, some of y'all make me so freaking tired.

Instead of basing someone's NHL career on two NHL preseason games why not wait to see what happens next year or so. Seriously, the word "patience" totally goes over some of y'alls head.

 

[Mess]

Top seasons ever by OHL players entering the season <=18yo by points per game:

1. Connor McDavid, 2.5
2. Patrick Kane, 2.5
3. Sam Gagner, 2.2
4. Jason Spezza, 2.05
5. John Tavares, 2
   
6. Mitchell Marner, 2
   
7. Dylan Strome, 1.9
8. Taylor Hall, 1.87
9. David Legwand, 1.78
10. Kyle Wellwood, 1.74
11. Steven Stamkos, 1.72
12. Bryan Little, 1.7
13. Tyler Seguin, 1.68
14. Nail Yakupov, 1.64

But, "TheProspector!", you exclaim; "that does not account for changes in scoring league wide over the years!" And, by Stalin's whiskers, you'd be right, comrade. So I'll recalculate the list based off of alpha -- scoring percentage of league average.

1. Patrick Kane, 330%
2. Connor McDavid, 322%
3. Jason Spezza, 294%
4. Sam Gagne, 294%
5. John Tavares, 278%
6. Taylor Hall, 263%
   
7. Mitchell Marner, 253%
   
8. David Legwand, 251%
9. Kyle Wellwood, 243%
10. Steven Stamkos, 240%
11. Dylan Strome, 239%
12. Tyler Seguin, 238%
13. Bryan Little, 229%
14. Nail Yakupov, 229%

Yes, it's true: Marner hasn't shown a lot in the exactly two pre-season games he's suited up for so far. But the 16P in 7 post-season GP, and 126P in 63GP is the correct reference point to judge from. This kid ain't far from being one of the best ever. He's already in their midst.

Marner's production verses his 1st year draft eligible peers is impressive, no question.

But, "TheProspector!", what are the top seasons ever by OHL players entering the season <=19yo by points per game?

That list will shrink significantly (from above) because many didn't return to junior for their <=19 year old seasons as their NHL careers began after being drafted. That seems to be biggest control variable that will change the new list at the end of this upcoming year.

London is a powerhouse offensive team with 3 potential players in their lineup that might go top 10 in 2016 draft in addition to returning players like Marner and Dvorak both top OHL scorers last year. So piling up the points is what we should logically expect.

If Marner does put up another 125+ points this current year matching last year in the OHL what has changed statistically as he is only 1 year older then but with the similar stats?.. Would we need to see improvement in his PPG% to measure progress?

 

[Lion15]

I dont think it was coincidence that Marner and Dvorak were sent back down to the OHL the same day. They've only missed two Knights games so far and will be raring to go on Friday against Windsor. Check out that roster and its easy to see how deep that team is going to go this year!

 

[snizzbone*]

I dunno. That London team he's going to looks really good.

Which is another reason why I don't think he'll score as much. He won't need to score 2.5 ppg when there are so many other offensive threats. Still gonna score a ton I just don't think his ppg will go up.

 

[SprDaVE]

Top seasons ever by OHL players entering the season <=18yo by points per game:

1. Connor McDavid, 2.5
2. Patrick Kane, 2.5
3. Sam Gagner, 2.2
4. Jason Spezza, 2.05
5. John Tavares, 2
   [*]Mitchell Marner, 2
   
6. Dylan Strome, 1.9
7. Taylor Hall, 1.87
8. David Legwand, 1.78
9. Kyle Wellwood, 1.74
10. Steven Stamkos, 1.72
11. Bryan Little, 1.7
12. Tyler Seguin, 1.68
13. Nail Yakupov, 1.64

But, "TheProspector!", you exclaim; "that does not account for changes in scoring league wide over the years!" And, by Stalin's whiskers, you'd be right, comrade. So I'll recalculate the list based off of alpha -- scoring percentage of league average.

1. Patrick Kane, 330%
2. Connor McDavid, 322%
3. Jason Spezza, 294%
4. Sam Gagne, 294%
5. John Tavares, 278%
6. Taylor Hall, 263%
   [*]Mitchell Marner, 253%
   
7. David Legwand, 251%
8. Kyle Wellwood, 243%
9. Steven Stamkos, 240%
10. Dylan Strome, 239%
11. Tyler Seguin, 238%
12. Bryan Little, 229%
13. Nail Yakupov, 229%

Yes, it's true: Marner hasn't shown a lot in the exactly two pre-season games he's suited up for so far. But the 16P in 7 post-season GP, and 126P in 63GP is the correct reference point to judge from. This kid ain't far from being one of the best ever. He's already in their midst.

He's a special player, no doubt about it. That doesn't mean he can't plateau or regress as he develops, like Wellwood or Gagne for example, but we should have a top end player out of Marner.

Also worth noting that Marner appears to be a bit of a slow starter. He didn't have many points early season last year.

Should be fun to see how he does this year. The Knights have an even stronger team this year, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of impact he has on an all ready top tier team.

 

[Mess]

I dont think it was coincidence that Marner and Dvorak were sent back down to the OHL the same day. They've only missed two Knights games so far and will be raring to go on Friday against Windsor. Check out that roster and its easy to see how deep that team is going to go this year!

Since the Tkachuk line is tearing up the OHL leaders board will London mess with success or simply reunite Dvorak and Marner as their own line together again?

This is what I'm interested to see how Dale Hunter and the Knights dishes out linemates and TOI & opportunity.

I'm guessing Max Jones -- Christian Dvorak -- Marner might be their own line on Friday.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Well I for one think it's refreshing when someone shows their bias so completely.

Honestly, some of y'all make me so freaking tired.

Instead of basing someone's NHL career on two NHL preseason games why not wait to see what happens next year or so. Seriously, the word "patience" totally goes over some of y'alls head.

Heh yeah. I find it funny that patience was the key word on this board since the talk of rebuild began, but very few seem capable of actually following through. Hunwick, Polak, Marner, Kapanen, Komarov and others have already been thrown under the bus, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a movement turn on Babcock 10 games into the season because "nothing has changed."

 

[WTFMAN99]

Noah Hanifin hasn't looked amazing from what I have seen. Carolina will likely keep him up though because he's a cheap contract.

 

[Lion15]

Since the Tkachuk line is tearing up the OHL leaders board will London mess with success or simply reunite Dvorak and Marner as their own line together again?

This is what I'm interested to see how Dale Hunter and the Knights dishes out linemates and TOI & opportunity.

I'm guessing Max Jones -- Christian Dvorak -- Marner might be their own line on Friday.

I'm really curious to see if Hunter gives preference to Tkachuk in OZ starts b/c its his draft year and maybe more first cracks at PP time. Maybe we see Marner with a much higher DZ% start this year and Hunter leaning on him more in tough situations. I'd love to see Marner paired with Tkachuk at points.

 

[Mess]

I'm really curious to see if Hunter gives preference to Tkachuk in OZ starts b/c its his draft year and maybe more first cracks at PP time. Maybe we see Marner with a much higher DZ% start this year and Hunter leaning on him more in tough situations. I'd love to see Marner paired with Tkachuk at points.

I think by seasons end we will see all possible combos and I expect Tkachuk & Marner on the PP#1 together with Mitch perhaps playing the point.

 

[jjjshab]

Since the Tkachuk line is tearing up the OHL leaders board will London mess with success or simply reunite Dvorak and Marner as their own line together again?

This is what I'm interested to see how Dale Hunter and the Knights dishes out linemates and TOI & opportunity.

I'm guessing Max Jones -- Christian Dvorak -- Marner might be their own line on Friday.

I think anyway you shake it, Tkachuk's current line will be broken up. Macdonald has no business being there, especially with Marner and Dvorak on the team.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Well I for one think it's refreshing when someone shows their bias so completely.



Heh yeah. I find it funny that patience was the key word on this board since the talk of rebuild began, but very few seem capable of actually following through. Hunwick, Polak, Marner, Kapanen, Komarov and others have already been thrown under the bus, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a movement turn on Babcock 10 games into the season because "nothing has changed."

It's just mindblowing.
like "well, Nylander dominated his camp, and Kadri dominated his camp, therefore, because Marner didn't, Hunter made a mistake, so, boohoo sky is over."

because. you know. that's totally how development, and life goes. call me when it's his +2 year, and he's actually bigger and stronger. and as some Knights fans said to me, he's a slow starter. maybe he's the kind of person who won't get going the first two weeks of camp (or the season), then completely lights it up. who knows?

I would have been happy with Hanifin too but this constant "well, Hunter made a mistake." needs to freaking stop. you can't qualify that so soon. Or rather. you can, but anyone worth their salt, would give you an amazing side-eye, and tell you to get out.

this isn't about talking negative about Marner and that it's not allowed. if there was something legitimately to talk about his play in the negative that's one thing. to have such an arbitratry complaint is another.

Noah Hanifin hasn't looked amazing from what I have seen. Carolina will likely keep him up though because he's a cheap contract.

we'll see how he does.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Carolina forums ---->


This guys' username used to be Hanifin btw, for those of you who don't know.

I was about to quote him and say so.

It's amazing how we fall in love with draft prospects pre draft. Usually after they're drafted by other teams, people let go. This is almost a little creepy.

 

[Christ]

Same with Luke Schenn in his first year, so what ?

How many seasons did it take Pietrangelo (drafted 1 spot before Schenn) to make the team in St. Louis? Who is the better player now?

 

[WTFMAN99]

we'll see how he does.

Probably poorly.

Defense is a hard position and he is 18 years old.

McDavid and Eichel will be fine, but for the other members of the draft class, it'll be another 1-3 years before they make an impact.

 

[BertCorbeau]

So what if Kadri lit up his rookie training camp? Look where he is now, it's not like he's lit up the league entirely since then .. Yeesh.

We knew Marner wasn't ready .. He showed that he needs more physical development to compete in the NHL. End of story