Marincin-Zaitsev should be our bottom pair

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

His Corsi rel and GF% rel against decent competition says otherwise.

In this case the eye test is 1000000% right, Marincin is awful

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

A DFD has been on many Leafs fans' wish lists, and we have one in Marincin, the DFD version of Gardiner. Puts up good Corsi rel and GF% rel, and really all that matters is whether you score more than the other team, not whether you look pretty doing it, right?

Marincin-Zaitsev has had very limited minutes as a pair in the past but has shown to be an awesome pair, and I've come around enough to think this would be a beastly bottom pair. Why? Zaitsev was initially an offense focused D when he was brought in showing a higher level of play in his first season than what he's become playing with a more offense focused, more risky D partner in Gardiner that has forced Zaitsev to become something he's not. Zaitsev playing on the bottom pair would be a great spot for him to regain his confidence as an OFD, and would likely start to show signs he can significantly drive play.

So why is Marincin a good fit for Zaitsev's left? Well, that's because one of Zaitsev's worst skills is denying zone entries, when Marincin is elite at it. Just take a look at this article if you disagree: Chad Bradford, Martin Marincin, and the Imperfection of the Human Mind It brings up a good criticism of our judgements that we focus too much on the big mistake and not the many less noticeable good plays, and that defines the criticism of both Gardiner and Marincin.

The only issue I'd see with this pair is Zaitsev wasn't great at getting the puck out of the zone and Marincin hasn't ever had that as his strong point, but Zaitsev never had this extensive a problem with it until this year so I think he can reshape his game to being confident enough in his passing zone exits instead of flipping the puck out, if he gets a chance at easy bottom pair minutes, to be good enough at it to carry Marincin on that issue.

This pair would also set up the rest of the dcore nicely by having our 3rd pair be our 1st PK unit with Marincin being a beastly PKer, and then gives us more minutes of Rielly on PP/ES instead of PK. It also allows the ES pairs to shape up as Rielly-Dermott (who was our 3rd best D and needs a bigger role than bottom pair) and then a proven to work pair of Gardiner-Hainsey.

I can definitely see Dubas forcing Babcock to give Marincin another shot. What would your bottom pair be next season? And if anyone knows where the stats are that show Marincin-Zaitsev worked great as a D-pair it would be great if you linked it in here.

Dubas can't force Babcock to do shit, Kyle Dubas has no power over Babcock, he might be the GM but he's a kid at the NHL level

 

[Nithoniniel]

Statistical analysis in player evaluation should be exploratory. You take numbers like the one in OP and you cross-reference it with what you see, and you find out why it is that he's got that kind of stats.

The thing about some metrics is that you have to remember that you are looking at trends that happen when they are on the ice. With a large enough sample size, chances increase that the metrics are driven by the player themselves. Marincin has a pretty good sample size of average to above average stats, so let's look at why. OP is absolutely correct that the way Marincin defends against zone entries is one of them. The only thing that separates him from the absolutely best in this regard is that he doesn't make good plays after breaking up an entry.

However, if you start looking deeper, you'll notice a trend. Marincin plays better against better competition. Now that's counter-intuitive, so why would that happen? Well, the big reason for that is because when he plays better competition, he always generally plays with one of our best d-men. In these pairings and outside of us funneling zone entries towards him, he takes a rather small role on the pairing, and his reactive defense isn't something all that special.

I have nothing against Marincin. I don't really hold grudges as a fan. He's perhaps the best d-man in the AHL, and he's probably not a worse option than someone like Polak. But he's not a loss. His case consists of being a passable complementary piece who need a strong puck-mover as a partner.

If we end up with a third pairing RHD that struggles at defending against zone entries, he'd be a good partner. In most other cases, we should aim higher.

 

[showtime8]

Marincin is playing a confident game right now. That was his biggest thing throughout the year with the Leafs. After a mistake, it would seem like he would just unravel. He'd take bad penalties because he'd be chasing the game. And he wouldn't do that when he was playing well.

I think he will be traded because I don't think the Leafs will want to qualify him at the number he's going to make next year (just over 1 mill).

 

[MR4]

Well people better watch out, Dubas doesn't care who knows he likes Marincin.

Statistical analysis in player evaluation should be exploratory. You take numbers like the one in OP and you cross-reference it with what you see, and you find out why it is that he's got that kind of stats.

The thing about some metrics is that you have to remember that you are looking at trends that happen when they are on the ice. With a large enough sample size, chances increase that the metrics are driven by the player themselves. Marincin has a pretty good sample size of average to above average stats, so let's look at why. OP is absolutely correct that the way Marincin defends against zone entries is one of them. The only thing that separates him from the absolutely best in this regard is that he doesn't make good plays after breaking up an entry.

However, if you start looking deeper, you'll notice a trend. Marincin plays better against better competition. Now that's counter-intuitive, so why would that happen? Well, the big reason for that is because when he plays better competition, he always generally plays with one of our best d-men. In these pairings and outside of us funneling zone entries towards him, he takes a rather small role on the pairing, and his reactive defense isn't something all that special.

I have nothing against Marincin. I don't really hold grudges as a fan. He's perhaps the best d-man in the AHL, and he's probably not a worse option than someone like Polak. But he's not a loss. His case consists of being a passable complementary piece who need a strong puck-mover as a partner.

If we end up with a third pairing RHD that struggles at defending against zone entries, he'd be a good partner. In most other cases, we should aim higher.

Always a good post from ya, essentially agree with all of it and can definitely see his 1.3M$ required QO scare the Leafs away. But I think Marincin-Zaitsev would truly fit the bill of your ideal partner for Marincin, Zaitsev really should be able to dominate and gain confidence in his offensive skills again if he played 3rd pair, which would let Marincin take the backseat where he plays best as you alluded to. If that pair *did* work, it would have Marincin be much more impactful than Polak I'd say.

I think with Lou we definitely would've seen a dman coming in to replace Polak as an upgrade for our d-core, but now I'm not so sure it happens with Dubas, I could definitely see him picking a couple good advanced stats guys and throwing them into the furnace and see which sticks.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Always a good post from ya, essentially agree with all of it and can definitely see his 1.3M$ required QO scare the Leafs away. But I think Marincin-Zaitsev would truly fit the bill of your ideal partner for Marincin, Zaitsev really should be able to dominate and gain confidence in his offensive skills again if he played 3rd pair, which would let Marincin take the backseat where he plays best as you alluded to. If that pair *did* work, it would have Marincin be much more impactful than Polak I'd say.

I think with Lou we definitely would've seen a dman coming in to replace Polak as an upgrade for our d-core, but now I'm not so sure it happens with Dubas, I could definitely see him picking a couple good advanced stats guys and throwing them into the furnace and see which sticks.

Yeah I've been arguing that Zaitsev should at least start the season on a third pairing ideally, so that he can get some easier matchups and rebuild his confidence.

 

[Al14]

Dubas can't force Babcock to do ****, Kyle Dubas has no power over Babcock, he might be the GM but he's a kid at the NHL level

I beg to differ. If Dubas has a well thought out plan that he wants executed by the coach, and, can sell that plan to Shanahan, you better believe he has the power over Babcock.

Shanahan has plenty of respect for Dubas, otherwise, why would he promote him over Hunter? Also, if Dubas felt he was appointed G.M. as a puppet only, I highly doubt he would have taken the job!

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I beg to differ. If Dubas has a well thought out plan that he wants executed by the coach, and, can sell that plan to Shanahan, you better believe he has the power over Babcock.

Shanahan has plenty of respect for Dubas, otherwise, why would he promote him over Hunter? Also, if Dubas felt he was appointed G.M. as a puppet only, I highly doubt he would have taken the job!

He has no power over Babcock, he can't force Babcock to play Marincin, or anybody else

 

[Zybalto]

Yeah I've been arguing that Zaitsev should at least start the season on a third pairing ideally, so that he can get some easier matchups and rebuild his confidence.

I dunno.

Zaitsev had a good last quarter of the season, many of us ,including you, had him as our best dman in the playoffs and he's coming off a great worlds and you think the thing that would be good for his confidence would to drop him to the third pair?

Maybe a three month sample size of playing well is too small and he's going to revert back to his awful play early in the year but it's odd behavior for this board to not give a player the "what have you done for me lately" treatment.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I dunno.

Zaitsev had a good last quarter of the season, many of us ,including you, had him as our best dman in the playoffs and he's coming off a great worlds and you think the thing that would be good for his confidence would to drop him to the third pair?

Maybe a three month sample size of playing well is too small and he's going to revert back to his awful play early in the year but it's odd behavior for this board to not give a player the "what have you done for me lately" treatment.

Yeah it's not because of his performance but more that he's a volatile person, so I want him to be put in a position to succeed while getting professional help so he can get rid of that habit he has of tearing himself down after a rough couple of games. I think that would benefit him a lot long-term.

 

[PuckMagi]

I would do this is we don't make any upgrades:

Gardiner - Rielly
Hainsey - Zaitsev
Dermott - Holl

 

[deletethis]

Well people better watch out, Dubas doesn't care who knows he likes Marincin.

His NHL coach clearly doesn't like the player. /story. Unless this is the beach Dubas has decided to die on. For a marginal NHL defender.

I read this as support for the player's worth (and person). Marincin needs to get a gig next season somewhere. Why not support him?

 

[Brobust]

Marincin is a high end Hainsey. That's right. He's better than Hainsey.

His only issue is confidence which suffers when he makes mistakes. That leads to a situation where one mistake leads to another. It's a compounding situation.

 

[nuck]

Marincin is a high end Hainsey. That's right. He's better than Hainsey.

His only issue is confidence which suffers when he makes mistakes. That leads to a situation where one mistake leads to another. It's a compounding situation.

He is a bubble player in the NHL and an AHL stud. He could be ready for primetime or he could give them the same hot and cold NHL performance he has shown til now. I have no faith in him not being overstressed again next season. Sell high. They need a more physical guy to anchor their bottom pair.

 

[therealkoho]

If Polak is somehow an NHL D then Mari is too.

they both are, but one certainly more then the other, and one of them brings an element that is crucial the farther in the playoffs you go

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Zaitsev doesn't really struggle at all moving the puck out of his own end when he's not being misused. He's actually quite adept at it... I think improving Zaitsevs offensive role coupled with the money we save from Gardiner being re-assigned to a more two-way defender only makes us better. I really don't think the transition game suffers much, if at all really. Also fwiw, I never said Zaitsev would be more offensive, when compared to Gardiner, just that I'm not convinced the drop off between them is all that much if Zaitsev is put in better situations to produce as Gardiner is.

And Zaitsev when talking to the media will find positive things to say about his current partner as virtually all players do, I don't know you can read that far into the actual comments.

As for him being a RHD and needing to be switched with Hainsey. That was just a typo

You're really underrating Gardiner's transition game. Zaitsev is absolutely nowhere near Gardiner's level in that regard. Dermott/Liljegren are the only non-Rielly D that can reach his transition level in the future.

Zaitsev couldn't drive possession in his 1st year nor his 2nd year, so not sure why you expect him to replace Gardiner's transition game. His point totals? Sure. I can see Zaitsev putting up a lot of points and replacing Gardiners points because IMO he was great in the offensive zone 1st year and KHL. His transition game? No chance.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

He is a bubble player in the NHL and an AHL stud. He could be ready for primetime or he could give them the same hot and cold NHL performance he has shown til now. I have no faith in him not being overstressed again next season. Sell high. They need a more physical guy to anchor their bottom pair.

He can't handle NHL speed. If he could he would be a top-4 lock for us with his defensive play. Or if he could improve his positioning to prevent that like Chara does, then he could work.

Rosen and Borgman are NHL ready for that bottom-pair LHD spot. I think Rosen gets the spot this year but wouldn't be surprised if Marincin gets one last chance after the performance he put in the AHL this year as their shutdown D.

Also, Dubas liked a tweet saying how Marincin was super underrated this year.

 

[Sypher04]

You're really underrating Gardiner's transition game. Zaitsev is absolutely nowhere near Gardiner's level in that regard. Dermott/Liljegren are the only non-Rielly D that can reach his transition level in the future.

Zaitsev couldn't drive possession in his 1st year nor his 2nd year, so not sure why you expect him to replace Gardiner's transition game. His point totals? Sure. I can see Zaitsev putting up a lot of points and replacing Gardiners points because IMO he was great in the offensive zone 1st year and KHL. His transition game? No chance.

Zaitsev just transitions differently than Gardiner. Less flashy, but also prone to less mistakes.

When I talked about replacing his offense I was mainly referring to production.

Gardiner skates the puck well when he has open ice to work with but he also skates himself into trouble and holds the puck too long quite often. While Zaitsev won't *usually* carry it like Gardiner he also makes less risky plays, and relies more on efficient passing out to the forwards to create quick transition. On a different team that may be problematic but with our team speed it works quite well.

They're just different imo

 

[ULF_55]

they both are, but one certainly more then the other, and one of them brings an element that is crucial the farther in the playoffs you go

Might be.

I've read Marincin is a big reason they're in the finals.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Gardiner skates the puck well when he has open ice to work with but he also skates himself into trouble and holds the puck too long quite often. While Zaitsev won't *usually* carry it like Gardiner he also makes less risky plays, and relies more on efficient passing out to the forwards to create quick transition. On a different team that may be problematic but with our team speed it works quite well.

The problem there is that this doesn't line up with the counting numbers. Zaitsev doesn't do all that well when it comes to passes that lead to zone exits, whereas Gardiner does well both there and moving the puck out by skating.

Gardiner is a very underrated passer. I saw someone show some work done on passes of different types by quantity and success rate at even strength, and Gardiner was among the top 10 in several categories, including both for stretch passes if I remember correctly. He's also got a long history of improving transition and possession numbers for all partners, whereas the same can't be said for Zaitsev so far.

I think with the right kind of moves, we should look at moving Gardiner if we don't think we can retain him on a good contract. I just don't think it'll be that easy to replace him.

 

[Menzinger]

He has no power over Babcock, he can't force Babcock to play Marincin, or anybody else

Babcock has control over game day roster moves, but he can’t control the players he’s given to choose from.

 

[DopeyFish]

they both are, but one certainly more then the other, and one of them brings an element that is crucial the farther in the playoffs you go

i agree

glad we all came together to agree that marincin is important

 

[Sypher04]

The problem there is that this doesn't line up with the counting numbers. Zaitsev doesn't do all that well when it comes to passes that lead to zone exits, whereas Gardiner does well both there and moving the puck out by skating.

Gardiner is a very underrated passer. I saw someone show some work done on passes of different types by quantity and success rate at even strength, and Gardiner was among the top 10 in several categories, including both for stretch passes if I remember correctly. He's also got a long history of improving transition and possession numbers for all partners, whereas the same can't be said for Zaitsev so far.

I think with the right kind of moves, we should look at moving Gardiner if we don't think we can retain him on a good contract. I just don't think it'll be that easy to replace him.

My primary counter would be that I don't expect one player to outright replace Gardiner. I see Zaitsev's increased offensive role (which is more suitable to his skill set than being used as a shutdown guy) combined with a quality 2nd pair guy to do the job. And they won't do it the same way. We may sacrifice some ability in certain respects but I think the trade off is worthwhile and still works out in our favour if the partner provides more stability.

I also don't believe that passes leading to zone exists, among some other advanced stats, are particularly reliably tracked. But that's a different discussion I suppose

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Babcock has control over game day roster moves, but he can’t control the players he’s given to choose from.

He definitely has a lot of input. I don't think Dubas will go to war with him and force him to play a bottom pairing defenseman

 

[Zybalto]

Yeah it's not because of his performance but more that he's a volatile person, so I want him to be put in a position to succeed while getting professional help so he can get rid of that habit he has of tearing himself down after a rough couple of games. I think that would benefit him a lot long-term.

Watching him in his most recent interviews for the worlds, he looked far more relaxed and was even cracking some jokes. I also think he should be rewarded for his strong play and would still start him at 4D and I think moving Hainsey down to the 3rd pairing with Dermott would be ideal for both Dermott's development and to keep Hainsey fresher in a more sheltered role while still being able to be a horse on the PK. Hainsey had a more or less reverse Zaitsev season in that he was way better than expected for the for most of the season and then ran outta juice at the end. Gards was the goat in the last game but its made him criminally underrated now so I would try to take advantage of that by signing him to a team friendly contract if possible.

I would not be surprised to see the Leafs make a move to acquire a first pairing D(Hainsey replacement) to play with Rielly, maybe even at the draft.