Marincin-Zaitsev should be our bottom pair

[Spirit of 67]

DFD: Data Flow Diagram
ERD: Entity Relationship Diagram

What the Leafs need is a ERD, Excellent Right Defenseman

If Marincin likes Toronto he could sign a good NHL/AHL deal, with good compensation in the minors. Otherwise he'd best see if there is any market for disposable defensemen and move on. He can play, just is unlikely to ever be a late bloomer like Stralman.

If our plans are to go deep in the playoffs in the short term we will likely need a lot of D. Having him stashed in the A would be nice in case of emergency. He's played and does offer some good skills.

Also, keeping Lou's motto in mind, if you have time, you use it. Maybe 2 years from now he's got it figured out. He was a very good Jr. player. Maybe he just needs to have his game rebuilt.

 

[deletethis]

Marincin is Europe bound in all likelihood and all the best to him. The entire league had a chance to pick him up in the fall of 2017. If he wants to try a 2 way deal somewhere else in the league I suppose some organization would take a flyer on him. Otherwise better money (and opportunity) awaits in the KHL or other league.

 

[Sypher04]

Not to continue to lump on Gardiner, which most of us have been happy to do since the game 7 debacle, but I think obviously this offseason the management team really needs to answer if Gardiner is the type of defenseman we can feel comfortable committing big money to in 1 year. I don't think we can, and if they come to the same conclusion, I believe you have to try and trade him this offseason. Whether that deal nets you another defenseman, or picks and prospects isn't important in my opinion, we'd obviously still have to add through other means, since we ideally need more than 1 upgrade. We could sign someone, or use those picks/prospects in package to acquire someone more suited to our needs, and what we're building.

I believe increasing Zaitsev's opportunities offensively, pairing him with a two-way guy, like a Hainsey, and allowing him to be the offensive mind of his pair will replace a large amount of the offense lost by moving Gardiner, even if perhaps not all.

Rielly - ?????
Zaitsev - Hainsey
Dermott - ?????

as a starting point. In a perfect world, I'd like to see Hainsey pushed down with Dermott, but we'd then need 2 top 4 guys, which doesn't seem likely this summer.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

The eye test shows he's elite at at breaking up zone entries, has had great games, I'm not going to say Gardiner is an AHLer just because he makes some big mistakes if his other plays more than makes up for it.

This is obviously a false equivalency and I don't need to tell you why, I guess the one hint I'll leave is that one of the players is actually an AHLer. For the sake of the thread and Marincin we'll have to agree to disagree on one side there is you and on the other there is everyone else. Unfortunately you hit the nail right on the head with Zaistev on the third pairing tho.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

Hell to the no he doesn't, had a 2.1 Corsi rel last year.

The eye test shows he's elite at at breaking up zone entries, has had great games, I'm not going to say Gardiner is an AHLer just because he makes some big mistakes if his other plays more than makes up for it.

Did you not watch the Washington series last year? Dude is a giant that has no physical game and can’t control the puck to save his life at the NHL level. The GWG in Game 6 was all on him...a guy half his size out muscled for the puck and we lost. Dude is soft like a babies behind....once again no thanks. The corsi can say he does well in a sheltered role before zone entry but omce the puck actually enters the zone he stinks.

 

[ULF_55]

Not to continue to lump on Gardiner, which most of us have been happy to do since the game 7 debacle, but I think obviously this offseason the management team really needs to answer if Gardiner is the type of defenseman we can feel comfortable committing big money to in 1 year. I don't think we can, and if they come to the same conclusion, I believe you have to try and trade him this offseason. Whether that deal nets you another defenseman, or picks and prospects isn't important in my opinion, we'd obviously still have to add through other means, since we ideally need more than 1 upgrade. We could sign someone, or use those picks/prospects in package to acquire someone more suited to our needs, and what we're building.

I believe increasing Zaitsev's opportunities offensively, pairing him with a two-way guy, like a Hainsey, and allowing him to be the offensive mind of his pair will replace a large amount of the offense lost by moving Gardiner, even if perhaps not all.

Rielly - ?????
Zaitsev - Hainsey
Dermott - ?????

as a starting point. In a perfect world, I'd like to see Hainsey pushed down with Dermott, but we'd then need 2 top 4 guys, which doesn't seem likely this summer.

Well, other than the fact I think Hainsey should play on his natural side ...

Rielly - #1
Hainsey-Zaitsev
Dermott - AHL partner

Now who ends up being 3rd. / 2nd. pairing would be determined over the 82 game schedule.

I just don't know if I see Gardiner ever being the answer to a defense question. Perhaps if it was:

Gardiner - #1 defensive defenseman

You know sometimes it is the big mistakes that matter ... in the playoffs you don't get many opportunities to ignore catastrophic mistakes.

Game 7 isn't why I'd move Gardiner it is future game 7's why I'd want to replace him, unless he can be signed for a Rielly type deal, but I don't see his agent letting him do that. We aren't talking 2 million here, we're talking 2*7. Would you give up $14 million ... and if you look around it could be $14 million and lower taxes.

 

[Sypher04]

Whoops, I just typo'd that. Regarding Zaitsev/Hainsey's sides of the pair.

Regarding, the extra ~14 mil. I totally agree.

The time to move Gardiner is this offseason, as far as I'm concerned.

 

[ULF_55]

Did you not watch the Washington series last year? Dude is a giant that has no physical game and can’t control the puck to save his life at the NHL level. The GWG in Game 6 was all on him...a guy half his size out muscled for the puck and we lost. Dude is soft like a babies behind....once again no thanks. The corsi can say he does well in a sheltered role before zone entry but omce the puck actually enters the zone he stinks.

How many of the Leafs defensemen were you referring to in this evaluation?

The biggest issue is you can only have so many defensemen who are not good in their own zone and the Leafs already have their tenured quorum.

 

[pspot]

Hainsey and Zaitsev should be bottom pair

 

[Al14]

Hainsey and Zaitsev should be bottom pair

Sure, but, where do you get, on short notice, 3 top 4 defensemen?

 

[LeafGrief]

Marincin is terrible. Yet another in a long line of tweeners who put up halfway decent corsi but never manage to actually make positive impacts on the game. Leave him in the AHL or go to Europe or whatever, he's had more than enough minutes on an NHL blueline where he's always struggled. I'd rather play Polak, because at least he has some snarl when he's not banging the puck off the glass for icings. Marincin is worse than Carrick or Borgman at literally everything.

 

[Cams]

Perfect example (this thread) of how advanced stats cannot be the sole reason build a team/defense core on. If this team going into next season has to even consider having Marincin on it, then either management failed at improving the one glaring flaw on this team, or they are just being patient (overly) with the Marlies/upcoming prospects.

Statistics (as a field of study) can be a fun exercise - you can prove a golf ball is smooth, you can prove SW Ontario is mountainous.

Players currently on the team that are ahead of Marincin - Dermott, Hainsey, Reilly, Zaitsev, Gardiner, Carrick. Not including Polak as he is UFA (and an option to consider for the 6/7 spot). In the minors you have Borgman, Rosen, Liljegren. Where is there is a spot (contract wise even) for Marincin? Plus, you have Jesper Lindgren on his way up the charts, and even Holl, and maybe the new Russian player (Ozhniganhov). It's pretty safe to assume the Leafs will be active in the pursuit of at least 1 UFA Dman (hopefully John Carlson, and/or De Haan). Plus, you have Gardiner on an expiring UFA contract, he is best to be moved for assets, which will free up his $4M cap hit - to use to get a Carlson/De Haan. It's also pretty safe to assume that Zaitsev SHOULD have a bounce back season.

 

[Torontonian]

Just remember the entire playoffs against Washington, specifically game 6 were we lost in OT because Marty couldn't cover his man in front of his net.

No interest seeing that boob in a leaf jersey again.

 

[Cor]

Hainsey - Zaitsev you mean?

Gardiner/Dermott - Rielly
Gardiner/Dermott - ????
Hainsey - Zaitsev

 

[ShaneFalco]

We're in trouble if Marincin is still being considered

 

[Cams]

Would really like to see this:

Rielly - Carlson
Dermott - Zaitsev
Hainsey - Borgman
Carrick/Rosen

Unless Liljegren is ready.

 

[moon111]

Polak sucks in every sense of the word and he played regularly. We will need a new "PK" specialist that struggles with the puck knowing Babcock.

But he didn't suck in every sense of the word. He was the team's best defenseman in front of the net. The Leafs lost their last game against Washington in the playoffs because of in front of the net presence. The Leafs lost how many games against Boston this year for the same thing. People ragging on Gartiner, but really Hainsey not playing as tough as Polak cost two games on it's own. Sure he lacks a lot of high-end skill, but at least he doesn't lack low-end skill. There's a reason he ended up with the best +/- in the playoffs, he did the simple things really good.

 

[Boutette]

Marincin is Europe bound in all likelihood and all the best to him. The entire league had a chance to pick him up in the fall of 2017. If he wants to try a 2 way deal somewhere else in the league I suppose some organization would take a flyer on him. Otherwise better money (and opportunity) awaits in the KHL or other league.

Should the leafs qualify him, he will earn $1.3 mil playing for the Marlies. Exactly where else is he going to earn that much money? The org can afford him, and he's part of the reason the Marlies defense is so dominant. Since we don't really expect any rookie defensemen to come up next year, cap is no issue and no NHL team is going to take that contract on waivers, I see no reason not to at least keep him around another year.

 

[Legion34]

It should be

Rielly. Xxxx
Gard. Hainsey
Derm. Zaitsev
Polak

 

[Buds17]

Should the leafs qualify him, he will earn $1.3 mil playing for the Marlies. Exactly where else is he going to earn that much money? The org can afford him, and he's part of the reason the Marlies defense is so dominant. Since we don't really expect any rookie defensemen to come up next year, cap is no issue and no NHL team is going to take that contract on waivers, I see no reason not to at least keep him around another year.

He's 26 and still young enough to possibly not want to be a full-time AHLer, but it sounds like a fine enough idea if he's amenable to it.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

If Polak is somehow an NHL D then Mari is too.

Polak actually uses his size though he’s not soft.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

youre wasting your time bringing data here man. Everyone's eye here is better than facts and data because of small sample sizes. Albeit no one here is a scout or will ever work in the NHL, but they know more. I appreciate the #s tho so thank you.

The data is legit but it’s also restricted to specific aspects. He may be good at restricting zone entries but then just watch the guy...he’s abysmal in terms of hockey sense at the NHL level.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Not to continue to lump on Gardiner, which most of us have been happy to do since the game 7 debacle, but I think obviously this offseason the management team really needs to answer if Gardiner is the type of defenseman we can feel comfortable committing big money to in 1 year. I don't think we can, and if they come to the same conclusion, I believe you have to try and trade him this offseason. Whether that deal nets you another defenseman, or picks and prospects isn't important in my opinion, we'd obviously still have to add through other means, since we ideally need more than 1 upgrade. We could sign someone, or use those picks/prospects in package to acquire someone more suited to our needs, and what we're building.

I believe increasing Zaitsev's opportunities offensively, pairing him with a two-way guy, like a Hainsey, and allowing him to be the offensive mind of his pair will replace a large amount of the offense lost by moving Gardiner, even if perhaps not all.

Rielly - ?????
Zaitsev - Hainsey
Dermott - ?????

as a starting point. In a perfect world, I'd like to see Hainsey pushed down with Dermott, but we'd then need 2 top 4 guys, which doesn't seem likely this summer.

I highly doubt they can afford him long-term, which means he won't get signed. He'll probably want to stay but get a lot more money elsewhere. As for replacing Gardiner, it's nowhere as simple as you think. Gardiner's greatest asset isn't his offensive game, it's his transition game. That's why Babcock loves him. Zaitsev is the complete opposite so I'd say your prediction on Zaitsev being more offensive isn't the greatest. Zaitsev said last season at some point that he loved playing with Gardiner becsuse he gets the puck out so effectively (something like that), and IMO that's something Zaitsev struggles with. Also, Zaitsev is a RHD so switch that pair around. I'd keep Gardiner for the playoff run and let him walk.

Did you not watch the Washington series last year? Dude is a giant that has no physical game and can’t control the puck to save his life at the NHL level. The GWG in Game 6 was all on him...a guy half his size out muscled for the puck and we lost. Dude is soft like a babies behind....once again no thanks. The corsi can say he does well in a sheltered role before zone entry but omce the puck actually enters the zone he stinks.

That GWG in game 6 was also hugely on Andersen. A weak shot from a weak angle. You couldn't blame Andersen because he made great saves but that's one flaw with Andersen; Can make fifty thousand hard saves but lets easy ones in imo.

Don't listen to some of these adv stats people, search them up yourself or listen to actual smart analytics people. Marincin has his strengths but you're right, his slow acceleration speed and puck skills make him super vulnerable in their own zone. That's why he's amazing in the AHL but can't do it consistently in the NHL

 

[Sypher04]

I highly doubt they can afford him long-term, which means he won't get signed. He'll probably want to stay but get a lot more money elsewhere. As for replacing Gardiner, it's nowhere as simple as you think. Gardiner's greatest asset isn't his offensive game, it's his transition game. That's why Babcock loves him. Zaitsev is the complete opposite so I'd say your prediction on Zaitsev being more offensive isn't the greatest. Zaitsev said last season at some point that he loved playing with Gardiner becsuse he gets the puck out so effectively (something like that), and IMO that's something Zaitsev struggles with. Also, Zaitsev is a RHD so switch that pair around. I'd keep Gardiner for the playoff run and let him walk.



That GWG in game 6 was also hugely on Andersen. A weak shot from a weak angle. You couldn't blame Andersen because he made great saves but that's one flaw with Andersen; Can make fifty thousand hard saves but lets easy ones in imo.

Don't listen to some of these adv stats people, search them up yourself or listen to actual smart analytics people. Marincin has his strengths but you're right, his slow acceleration speed and puck skills make him super vulnerable in their own zone. That's why he's amazing in the AHL but can't do it consistently in the NHL

Zaitsev doesn't really struggle at all moving the puck out of his own end when he's not being misused. He's actually quite adept at it... I think improving Zaitsevs offensive role coupled with the money we save from Gardiner being re-assigned to a more two-way defender only makes us better. I really don't think the transition game suffers much, if at all really. Also fwiw, I never said Zaitsev would be more offensive, when compared to Gardiner, just that I'm not convinced the drop off between them is all that much if Zaitsev is put in better situations to produce as Gardiner is.

And Zaitsev when talking to the media will find positive things to say about his current partner as virtually all players do, I don't know you can read that far into the actual comments.

As for him being a RHD and needing to be switched with Hainsey. That was just a typo

 

[AllDay28]