I made a long post elsewhere in response to someone who claimed that Kopitar would take a hometown discount to stay because he would want to win, live in Los Angeles, and so on. It's got some data that might be interesting for this conversation, so I thought I'd repost it. It's not directed specifically at anyone here, but might be good fodder for discussion.
The "hometown discount" idea is one that has been percolating throughout the Kings messageboard universe in recent years, and it's one that just has no solid evidence in its support. It's wishful thinking.
Lombardi is a good negotiator and I don't think he does deal that are anywhere near as bad as what other GMs have gotten themselves into. But, being a "good negotiator" essentially means getting a fair price, not getting an actual discount. And, ultimately, the bottom line is that there are no players on the current or past roster that we can clearly say took hometown discounts.
So, if one is going to seriously argue that Kopitar will take some kind of discount--or Doughty, for that matter--then we need an example of Lombardi actually getting someone to take one. Who are our candidates?
Gaborik is the obvious first choice for evidence in support of the idea that Lombardi can get someone to take a discount of some kind. However, while it is true that he could likely have gotten a contract with a higher average annual value (AAV, or cap hit), it's unlikely that he could have gotten more money, strictly speaking. That contract is seven years for a 32-year old with a history of injuries. Just what does that injury history consist of? Let's see...
2000-01 71 games played, 18G 18A 36p
02 - 78, 30G 37A 67p
03 - 81, 30G 35A 65p
04 - 65 (74 games total-- 65 NHL, 9 Slovak; contract dispute?), 18G 22A 40p
05 - 0 (lockout, played in Europe)
06 - 65, 38G 28A 64p
07 - 48, 30G 27A 57p
08 - 77, 42G 41A 83p
09 - 17, 13G 10A 23p
10 - 76, 42G 44A 86p
11 - 62, 22G 26A 48p
12 - 82, 41G 35A 76p
13 - 47/48 (lockout shortened season), 12G 15A 27p (what the hell happened here--yes, the numbers are right)
14 - 41, 11G 19A 30p
So, while he has had more overall healthy seasons (70+ games) than unhealthy ones, there have been some real bad ones in there, with 48, 17, and just this past year only 41 games. Also, while Gaborik has indeed put up some monster numbers (2010, wow!), his production does appear to be declining. And before people chime in, yes, I'm aware that he was brilliant in the playoffs, but that's a small sample size. If we're going to really understand what's going on here, we need to think analytically and look at the trends. Statistically speaking, NHL forwards peak in point production between 25 and 27. He's 32, and the decline first appeared in 2011 (when he turned 29); he had a good bounce-back year in 2012, but the 2013 and 2014 regular seasons were rough, make no mistake. While his productive years are certainly not over and done with, we would be overly optimistic if we expected him to produce any more than about 70 games, 25G 25A 50p. If he hit those targets, I think we'd all be very pleased.
Now, what does his contract look like, and why is it not a "discount"?
2014-15 - $6.075 million (+ $1m signing bonus)
16 - $6.075 million
17 - $6.075 million
18 - $5.075 million
19 - $4.575 million
20 - $3.175 million
21 - $3.075 million
It's a $34.125 million, seven year contract--for a 32-year-old with a history of significant injuries and with declining production. Yes, the cap his is a more reasonable $4.875, but that's because it's so long. His $6-ish million next year is a pay cut from his $7.5 million the previous five years, but his last five years of performance have not justified him making that much.
How does he compare to players with a similar cap hit? Take a look. What you'll find is that Gaborik's annual salary the next three years is substantially higher than any of the other players on that list, which includes people like David Backes (he's due a raise), Tomas Plekanec, Bobby Ryan, and Ryan Kelser. Now, Gaborik on his day is a better player than any of those guys, but his numbers in the past few years don't compare well to theirs (injury) and he's older than all of them. Indeed, he's the oldest player with a cap hit that high, aside from Erik Cole and Martin Havlat, both of whom are entering the final years of their contracts.
So, cap hit might be a bit misleading. To really understand if this is a discount of sorts, let's look at his actual salary. And, lo and behold, Marian Gaborik is the third-highest paid right wing in the NHL, behind only Marian Hossa ($7.9 million, wow, didn't know it was that much) and Patrick Kane ($6.5 million). Now, Kane is rumored to be asking for in the neighborhood of $12 million/year on his next contract. He won't get that; $10 million is more likely. But, he's 25 (b. 1988) and has only ever played less than 70 games in a season once--this past year, when he played 69. Upcoming is his Big Contract, the one that's going to be the most he'll ever make. And, while the two players are actually quite comparable in their prime, Gaborik at 32 is nowhere near Kane at 25 (and don't get me wrong--Kane is ******, but he's a good ******).
So, how is this a discount at all? Given Gaborik's very real and still apparent ability to manufacture points and to raise the team's shooting percentage, weighed against his also very real history of injury and current trend of declining production, paying him $6million/year for the next three years seems... about what he'd get on the open market. Perhaps slightly more if someone offered him just three years, but we offered him seven. And yes, I understand the contract is moveable, Gaborik may retire early, we can put him on LTIR, etc. It's a good contract--but it is in no way a discount. It's Lombardi negotiating well, and giving Gaborik a long-term deal in exchange for (perhaps) a marginally lower annual salary the next few years, and a significantly lower cap hit. This contract could look very bad in a few years if he decides to keep playing but is unproductive; who would take his contract in that case (cough see also Mike Richards cough).
Back to Kopitar, where this whole conversation started--don't expect him to take a discount. Expect Lombardi to get a good deal, but it will be a fair deal. Depending on what the cap looks like in a few years when Kopitar is up for renegotiation, I'd ballpark his annual salary at $10-12 million/year, about what Toews will get. That will be the going price for an elite center, and it's what he would make on the open market. Lombardi will probably offer him as many years as he possibly can in order to front-load the contract and carry it through Kopitar's declining-production and lower-cost years later in his career. A good cap hit, however, is not a discount--it's a good contract. I expect that Lombardi will lock him up long-term before he has a chance to hit free agency, but again, that's not a discount so much as the benefits of incumbency.
Honestly, if you're thinking that Kopitar actually will take a discount, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. It's wishful thinking, something people think is true because they really want it to be true. There's no actual evidence that discount contracts--particularly for an absolutely elite player in his prime--are anything other than pipe dreams.
