Series Discussion: (M1) Washington Capitals vs (WC1) Columbus Blue Jackets

[txpd]

"Short" sample size is relative. We're not judging him over 5-10 games, he's being judged over an aggregate of the season and last playoffs and compared to someone with the same sample size (excluding last playoffs).

I didn't judge Ov based on last season. I wont judge Holtby based on this season.

 

[g00n]

I missed have Holtby playing well but he posted a .903 save percentage over March and April, that's terrible.

There are factors beyond those numbers.

Holtby has been a great playoff goaltender before and he's your franchise G1 at the moment. Grubauer has been solid in the regular season and in very limited postseason action. The mere fact that we're having this discussion shows the dilemma.

If they are both feeding off each other and maybe benefiting from a healthy teammate rivalry then why not capitalize on it? It seemed to work down the stretch. Holtby has not been in top form but he's certainly been better than the garbage we saw in the middle of the season. It's possible that they may be better as a tandem than as individuals.

In a perfect world you have one of them just march you to the Cup. That may not be our reality. If I had to guess I'd say the team probably shares a split allegiance in the matter. Maybe a balanced solution would benefit them the most.

 

[txpd]

Talk about pressure on the starting goalie. Whoever starts in goal for G1 will be on an extremely short leash.

The only way that isn't the case is if one gets hurt before the series starts. Otherwise no matter what is done the leash will appear short

 

[bur and 666 others]

I think they should start Gruby, they team has confidence in him, while not sure they do in Holtby. No reason to forfeit the game 1 which can happen if Holtby is bad and the team will think he will allow a goal against. While with Grubi they will fight harder even if he's bad, imho

 

[um]

There are factors beyond those numbers.

Holtby has been a great playoff goaltender before and he's your franchise G1 at the moment. Grubauer has been solid in the regular season and in very limited postseason action. The mere fact that we're having this discussion shows the dilemma.

If they are both feeding off each other and maybe benefiting from a healthy teammate rivalry then why not capitalize on it? It seemed to work down the stretch. Holtby has not been in top form but he's certainly been better than the garbage we saw in the middle of the season. It's possible that they may be better as a tandem than as individuals.

In a perfect world you have one of them just march you to the Cup. That may not be our reality. If I had to guess I'd say the team probably shares a split allegiance in the matter. Maybe a balanced solution would benefit them the most.

again, he posted a .903 save percentage over March and April, that's terrible.

Saying he's played well since competition was introduced is flat out wrong.

 

[g00n]

again, he posted a .903 save percentage over March and April, that's terrible.

Saying he's played well since competition was introduced is flat out wrong.

Good thing I didn't say that. I said he was better than his low point, and there are more factors involved than recent games.

 

[um]

Good thing I didn't say that. I said he was better than his low point, and there are more factors involved than recent games.

and what are factors? and how are they relevant enough to excuse his awful play.

 

[Capsman]

Whichever goalie is better at making the routine stop right now is more important, in my view. We already know that Columbus will spend a lot of time in our end and will put a lot of grade B and C chances on net. Just the nature of the 2 teams. I think Gruby is likely to be the more consistent with those types of shots. Some may argue the rebound control issue, but it has been better of late and I'm not sure there is a difference between the two right now in that regard.

 

[Capathetic]

Caps in 6. Take care of business.

These villain avatars are pretty awesome! Sorry I don’t post much anymore. This site always has pop up adds now and it’s just annoying.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’d wager “allegiances” are the last thing in the minds of the players. Starting Gruby isn’t personal, it’s what’s best for business today.

If he struggles, I hope it gets Holtby into a relief situation where we can see how he looks.

 

[g00n]

and what are factors? and how are they relevant enough to excuse his awful play.

Read what I wrote

 

[um]

Read what I wrote

you said "and there are more factors involved than recent games." what are they?

And as I asked, are any of those factors more relevant than his performance over the last few months?

 

[MrGone]

I was leaning towards Grubauer, but didn't realize until this morning that Holtby started all the games against the Blue Jackets this season.

He has also lead some of the most talented teams in the past 10 years to deep into the second round.

 

[Ridley Simon]

There are factors beyond those numbers.

Holtby has been a great playoff goaltender before and he's your franchise G1 at the moment. Grubauer has been solid in the regular season and in very limited postseason action. The mere fact that we're having this discussion shows the dilemma.

If they are both feeding off each other and maybe benefiting from a healthy teammate rivalry then why not capitalize on it? It seemed to work down the stretch. Holtby has not been in top form but he's certainly been better than the garbage we saw in the middle of the season. It's possible that they may be better as a tandem than as individuals.

In a perfect world you have one of them just march you to the Cup. That may not be our reality. If I had to guess I'd say the team probably shares a split allegiance in the matter. Maybe a balanced solution would benefit them the most.

I don’t think many are arguing that using both has merit, and could (should?) happen were they to make it beyond round 1.

However a pre-determined “Every other Game” route is silly...and I think you are now just trying to stand behind that idea. If there is no merit in playing one guy through it all, there is also no merit in alternating starts “just because”.

My opinion, obv.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

He has also lead some of the most talented teams in the past 10 years to deep into the second round.

 

[g00n]

you said "and there are more factors involved than recent games." what are they?

And as I asked, are any of those factors more relevant than his performance over the last few months?

Since I wrote 3 paragraphs on it in that post alone I don't think you're being honest

 

[g00n]

I don’t think many are arguing that using both has merit, and could (should?) happen were they to make it beyond round 1.

However a pre-determined “Every other Game” route is silly...and I think you are now just trying to stand behind that idea. If there is no merit in playing one guy through it all, there is also no merit in alternating starts “just because”.

My opinion, obv.

Why not? If the dynamic encourages better than usual performance out of either one then you've got both goaltenders playing well enough to win. The guy on the ice knows this is his game to go all out and he doesn't want to let his team down.


It's not simply "just because". That's the facetious side of the argument that makes light of the Caps legendary failures. Holtby is playing for his starting job. Grubauer is also playing for his future and possible a new contract or trade. Both are playing for the Cup. If just one guy is out there and he fails then anyone can say "yeah well it's the Caps in the playoffs, whattayagonnado?" and the goaltender is saddled with that. If they're both responsible for their own games and outcomes then there's more of a personal stake. Even if the Caps lose a series, one guy may come out looking better than the other, from a selfish perspective. From a team perspective it sends the message to the entire club that nobody is above sacrificing for the team.

 

[McVechkin]

I really suggest you go an watch one of these "optional" practices if you think it's anything that's going to a make or break the team. It's a glorified skate around with some light drills. I trust that if guys feel there time is better spent rehabbing or watching film they're right.

Just because they're not on the ice does not mean they're at home, they still have to show up.

I know exactly what an optional practice is. I am saying they shouldn't have optional practices.. this is the same pattern they have done every playoffs in the Ovechkin era. The successful teams practice and refine their games during the playoffs. Last year, I believe the caps had 1 (maybe 2) team practices since the leafs series concluded... The pens had 1 (maybe 2 days) off... the pens were a much more prepared team.

Sure, video and other off ice activities are being done.. but nothing beats repetition on ice for preparation...

Maybe I am wrong here.. but past success (lack thereof) would suggest you need to change something.

 

[twabby]

The middle six is going to need to have a good series in order to pull this one out. I imagine Jones and Werenski are going to be hard-matched against 8-92-43 so it’s going to be up to the Backstrom and Eller lines to dictate the play. I’m not too concerned about 65-19-77 but the third line is a genuine problem IMO. Trotz really blundered in not focusing on building a third scoring line down the stretch, instead opting for slower and grittier choices.

If it were my choice I’d go with:

18-20-13
63-83-10

in the bottom 6. Stephenson brings speed to match Vrana with perhaps a more defensive role, and Connolly could bring goal scoring and Gersich could bring more disruption and energy to the 4th line. DSP gets in if either 63 or 10 prove ineffective.

I just really hope Trotz plays to the team’s strengths instead of trying to play his heavy lineup because it’s Columbus. Pittsburgh played their usual fast brand of hockey last postseason and torched the Jackets in 5.

 

[McVechkin]

I know exactly what an optional practice is. I am saying they shouldn't have optional practices.. this is the same pattern they have done every playoffs in the Ovechkin era. The successful teams practice and refine their games during the playoffs. Last year, I believe the caps had 1 (maybe 2) team practices since the leafs series concluded... The pens had 1 (maybe 2 days) off... the pens were a much more prepared team.

Sure, video and other off ice activities are being done.. but nothing beats repetition on ice for preparation...

Maybe I am wrong here.. but past success (lack thereof) would suggest you need to change something.

reading that again, maybe I started out a bit snarky. I don't pretend to know all the answers.. my only point is the caps have done this resting / optional practice strategy time and time again.. and every time they lose they are out coached and out focused..

 

[McVechkin]

The middle six is going to need to have a good series in order to pull this one out. I imagine Jones and Werenski are going to be hard-matched against 8-92-43 so it’s going to be up to the Backstrom and Eller lines to dictate the play. I’m not too concerned about 65-19-77 but the third line is a genuine problem IMO. Trotz really blundered in not focusing on building a third scoring line down the stretch, instead opting for slower and grittier choices.

If it were my choice I’d go with:

18-20-13
63-83-10

in the bottom 6. Stephenson brings speed to match Vrana with perhaps a more defensive role, and Connolly could bring goal scoring and Gersich could bring more disruption and energy to the 4th line. DSP gets in if either 63 or 10 prove ineffective.

I just really hope Trotz plays to the team’s strengths instead of trying to play his heavy lineup because it’s Columbus. Pittsburgh played their usual fast brand of hockey last postseason and torched the Jackets in 5.

Agreed on the middle 6 and more so on the 3rd line. Despite everyone thinking Holtby lost that series it was 100% on the 3rd line.. they didnt have a goal until game 6 (maybe 5?) when Ovie was hurt and put on the 3rd line.

 

[trick9]

He has also lead some of the most talented teams in the past 10 years to deep into the second round.

Most talented regular season teams.

They average around 2 goals per playoff game. Actually talented playoff teams rarely are below 3 goals per game. In terms of Cup -winners:

GF/GP:
2017: Penguins - 3.08
2016: Penguins - 3.04 (SJS actually more than that, 3.13)
2015: Blackhawks - 3.00
2014: Kings - 3.38

2017: Capitals - 2.77 in 13 GP. 5th among Playoff teams.
2016: Capitals - 2.42 in 12 GP. 9th among Playoff teams.
2015: Capitals - 2.00 in 14 GP. 2nd worst among Playoff teams.
2014: Capitals - Did not qualify.

Their numbers in terms of goalscoring are nowhere near what they should be for Cup -contenders. Last season they were a bit better (Blackhawks won in 2013 with similar numbers), but those numbers still require that the goaltender stand on their head and that just didn't happen year ago. But it's not like they were scoring goals everywhere and Holtby was bleeding goals against. That was just actually the first time he was actually given any kind of decent support.

Between that period (2015-2017), they have scored 3 goals in a Playoff game 8 out of 19 times. That seems somewhat average number, not actually terrible. That is just their numbers in the 1st rounds though (vs. PHI, NYI, TOR).

In the 2nd rounds they have scored 3 goals in 7 out of the 21 games. Overally that's 15 games out of 40 that they have scored atleast 3 goals. 25 out of 40 where they have scored 0-2 goals. That's awful lot of games that you are expecting your goalie to steal. Good teams don't have to rely on their goaltending nearly that much.

 

[Langway]

From a team perspective it sends the message to the entire club that nobody is above sacrificing for the team.

It's just awkward to work in practice, though. They're both a little different and need slightly different priorities at times helping out in front of them. Mentally I'd wager it's easier for the skaters to have one guy and keep it simple and the same goes for the starter getting into a groove and riding that as long as possible. That's a bit more difficult playing every four days or so. It would be one thing if the first option fatigues and requires a breather but to schedule it irrespective of performance seems too planned. It also would really open the door to second guessing if one is sat after a solid start and the second gives the next one away. Momentum may not necessarily carry over from game-to-game but it's still a powerful enough factor in terms of belief for it to put a coach in the crosshairs. I've got to think the starter gets the net until their performance dictates otherwise and the leash may not be terribly long for either.

One factor that's only going to make the third line more important is that Cole-Savard is a fairly decent shutdown pair and you're also going to get a fair amount of Werenski & Jones out against the bottom six at times. It's why every line has to play that pair hard. That's the key toward opening things up a bit. I'm sure Trotz will have that attrition type mindset as usual and Gulitti's preview had them sticking with DSP on the third line. We'll see but I suspect that's the plan. DSP did have two assists against them this season so, y'know, history. Home ice should offer some advantages early on and force Torts to chase the match-up a bit. It looks like their third pair will be Murray-Nutivaara with Johnson a scratch.

 

[peterthegreat12]

I think the idea is that if it takes more than 5 games, it will have been one hell of a physical series and puts the team on the ropes already for round 2.

But maybe not.

You are correct. It is going to be a physical series either way, and I find it hard to believe it won't go past 5 games. The Blue Jackets are a good hockey club and I think this series will be a coin flip.

 

[HeyMattyB]

What this thread really needs is a Holtby vs Grubauer Game 1 Starter poll.