Let us take a stroll down Carlyle road (One Year Anniversary)

[Pookie]

Do you understand the concept of EV based on the empirical results from earlier in the season? It's by no means perfect, but it's the best guess that can be made. It's a hell of a lot better than assuming they'll lose, or rewarding teams that played more games early (which is the exact same thing as assuming the other team will lose).

If this has any merit, based on whatever Mumbo jumbo you want, predict the next 3 games for the Leafs. Then keep doing that until the end of the season.

Games are independent events.

 

[zeke]

Yes Carlyle wasn't the only problem - in fact if also argue that poor managment post lockout has been the organization's biggest problem.

That still doesn't explain the numerous poor on ice decisions Carlyle made during his tenure - playing Mclemment 15 minutes a night on a regular basis, refusing to break up lines that were a defensive mess or even trying to change their usage. Driving players like Grabo and MacArthur out of town.

Unacceptable by any measure.

It takes many factors to be as bad as the Leafs have been for this long.

Basically imo I have Four Pillars which I look at to see if a team will be any good:

(in no order)

1. Elite Scorers
2. Depth Scoring
3. Goaltending
4. System/Coaching

In the Quinn years we had at 3-4 of those in most years. Since then we have never had more than 1-2 in place in any given season....until this year.

In the Maurice years we had solid #2 and #4, but absolutely nothing for #1 and #3.

In the Wilson years, we had inconsistent #1 and #4, and nonexistent #2 and #3. Burke's idea of a Bottom 6 (Tim Fing Brent, #3 centre!) and our hilarious goaltending killed us.

In the Carlyle years, it was inconsistent. We never had #4, but in that first year we had excellent #1 (Kessel line), 2 (Grabo line), and 3 (Reimtime) and that made us a good team. Unfortunately we got rid of #2, and #1 and #3 were always inconsistent, which left us pretty terrible in the remaining years.

This year, so far, we have good #2 and #4, inconsistent #3, and no #1.

The good news is that #2 and #4 will always be good when you have good coaching and good management. Those two have been our weakest elements in most of the seasons since Maurice, which just comes down to poor coaching and management.

#1 and #3 are more dependant on pure talent and we have to improve there.

 

[Ovate]

If this has any merit, based on whatever Mumbo jumbo you want, predict the next 3 games for the Leafs. Then keep doing that until the end of the season.

Games are independent events.

The odds are considerably better for us getting 3 points in the next 3 games than 0 points.

Games are independent events. That doesn't mean they should be assumed to be losses until proven otherwise.

 

[zeke]

The odds are considerably better for us getting 3 points in the next 3 games than 0 points.

Games are independent events. That doesn't mean they should be assumed to be losses until proven otherwise.

Pookie is using his own mumbo jumbo to predict future performance. Don't let him try and convince you he's doing anything differently than you are, logic wise.

The better mumbo jumbo will end up doing a better job of predicting in the end.

 

[Pookie]

The odds are considerably better for us getting 3 points in the next 3 games than 0 points.

Games are independent events. That doesn't mean they should be assumed to be losses until proven otherwise.

It just means you don't assume anything.

Riddle me this. In saying what is likely over the next 3 games, did you factor in the health status of our players? Make some assumptions there that no one would get injured or suspended? The opposition? Whether the opponents are travelling on little sleep? Etc etc.

 

[hoglund]

The odds are considerably better for us getting 3 points in the next 3 games than 0 points.

Games are independent events. That doesn't mean they should be assumed to be losses until proven otherwise.

And that doesn't mean they should be assumed to be wins until proven otherwise too.