Kingston has definitely way underachieved this year for sure.
Second of all Ottawa won’t be going on any 10 game winning streaks this year.
And lastly Kitchener was the 8th seed last year but underachieved like kingston has this year and got the matchup they wanted clearly as they swept #1 seed Windsor. Was clear as day though before the playoffs Windsor would have a tough time with them as they loaded up throughout the year. Didn’t think they’d get swept though. matchups for the 7th and 8th seed in the west pretty much went down to the last day last year.
You are not being realistic. If you go back to the pre-season prediction thread, how many people had Kingston as the favourite to win the conference? Not many. The previous year most everyone had Peterborough winning the conference. Either them or North Bay. Other than me, no one had Ottawa.
The Eastern Conference this year is a steaming pile of manure. It is reflected in how weak the top teams win% are. Sudbury would be the 4th place team in the Western Conference. They’d have finished as the 4th seed last year in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile they give up goals at an alarming rate. Only three playoff teams int he entire league have given up more goals against. That is going to kill them in the playoffs when scoring goals gets more difficult for them.
The Petes underachieved last year but still finished at .544 win%. Kingston is struggling to maintain .500. The Petes added two key OA’s, and Elite Centre as well as a couple early season trades. They also had a bonafide top 3 goalie. Don’t compare Kingston to the Petes. It makes you look silly.
Stick with the argument that there really isn’t a big margin between the 1st and 7th place teams. There are no elite teams in the Eastern Conference. That makes it viable for a 6th or 7th place team to win in the 1st round. To me, that is a valid argument all by itself. Trying to draw comparisons to Kitchener who also spent at the deadline like sailors at port last season with Kingston this season that basically did next to nothing is disingenuous and quite simply not relevant.
If Kingston (or any other low seed team) wins in round one, it isn’t because they underachieved this year and are significantly betteR than their record. It is because the teams at the top of the conference are more beatable this year than most any other year. 11 points separate 6th and 1st. Same gap between 3rd and 7th. It is basically a meaningless gap. Last year there was a 34 point gap between 1st and 4th in the conference.
Again, stick to the argument that there really isn’t a lot that separates 1st and 7th. To me, that is a very reasonable argument that is pretty hard to refute. We could go into advanced stats and trade deadline additions etc but at the end of the day, the difference isn’t enough to die on that hill. But, dont point to the Petes or Kitchener last year as comparables. Both of those teams would wipe the ice with Kingston in 4 straight games. It is likely that both of those teams would beat all the teams in this years Eastern Conference in a playoff series. Most of those series wouldn’t’ be all that close.