Value of: John Gibson to Carolina

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Dostal coming, they can. would save them serious cap; 6 400 000.
Trade Fowler to boot, would save another 6 500 000, thou...i don't see anyone wanting someone like declining Cam Fowler.

Stolartz is a decent backup, he can win you games in that role.
- or get a goalie back in the trade.

Fowler isn’t really declining, last year was arguably his best year since his rookie year.

Fowler will age fine, his skating is still elite level and he doesn’t really take hits at all..... I think a lot of teams would love to add Fowler.... he’s not a #1 but he’s a pretty good #2

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Dostal.
Dostal is insane good and i believe he is the #1 goalie before the half way of the season, Gibson may start as the #1, but Dostal just is the better one.

Dostal deserves more love than he gets but you are way overdoing it. The kid has played 0 games in North America, suggesting he is ready to push one of the world's best goalies aside immediately is a massive stretch.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Not really. If a team is entering a multi year rebuild they're not holding onto a prime asset who will be in his early to mid 30s by the time the job is done. If it's done. For a quick reference take a look at Erik Karlsson (28) when Ottawa traded him, or Phil Kessel (28) when Toronto dealt him to Pittsburgh.

Ah so we are supposed to be modeling our rebuild after Toronto and Ottawa? They haven't exactly shown anyone how to build a team to win playoff rounds have they?

There's quite a few people who seem to think every bad team should sell off their entire core and tank for several years. That's not how you build a successful team. A lot of teams that are futile for years and collect a bounty of young talent (Edmonton + Toronto etc) are struggling to take the next step and become true contenders, because they rely too heavily on kids and lack key veterans. Anaheim is way ahead of those teams in their build if they keep their elite goalie and strong defensive players, while continuing to add blue chip youngsters like Drysdale and Zegras. There is absolutely no reason to aspire to get worse.

 

[varano]

Carolina doesn't need him. They play a system that minimizes shots and minimizes high danger opportunities. They just need an "ok" goalie and they're fine.

 

[HanSolo]

Thats fine and fair to not be crazy about Suzuki or any other prospect for that matter but their value is still their value and Suzuki’s has only gone up since being drafted. Yes, the Canes have a very deep prospect cupboard but that doesn’t mean just because they CAN give up that kind of value in a trade, they should or it’s reasonable. Now, you might say ‘I don’t care what’s reasonable. This is what I want and unless I’m getting a ridiculous overpay then Gibsons not going anywhere’, but that’s not exactly going to get the trade juices flowing

It wasn't an Anaheim fan looking to trade Gibson out in the first place, but the idea is that Gibson is the guy the Ducks are the least likely to trade. Dostal is a great prospect but he hasn't proven he can be a replacement for when the Ducks' rebuild ends. To pry an elite goaltending talent out of Anaheim would almost certainly require massive value from the acquiring team that they'd probably be better off not bothering. The player has to be known to be a good enough to account for losing their best player who is on a terrific contract for them to even consider it. A grab bag of futures isn't gonna get it done unless Dostal proves he can take the reins.

You're still looking at a calculus of what is most fair and reasonable on paper but that's not a calculation that matters to Anaheim when considering dispensing a 26 year old elite talent on a great deal who's intended to be there backstopping the team after exiting what they hope will be a short rebuild.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I’d include Newhook in a package for Gibson from Colorado easily if Anaheim are willing to take back Donskoi to make some salary balance.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

It wasn't an Anaheim fan looking to trade Gibson out in the first place, but the idea is that Gibson is the guy the Ducks are the least likely to trade. Dostal is a great prospect but he hasn't proven he can be a replacement for when the Ducks' rebuild ends. To pry an elite goaltending talent out of Anaheim would almost certainly require massive value from the acquiring team that they'd probably be better off not bothering. The player has to be known to be a good enough to account for losing their best player who is on a terrific contract for them to even consider it. A grab bag of futures isn't gonna get it done unless Dostal proves he can take the reins.

You're still looking at a calculus of what is most fair and reasonable on paper but that's not a calculation that matters to Anaheim when considering dispensing a 26 year old elite talent on a great deal who's intended to be there backstopping the team after exiting what they hope will be a short rebuild.

I think it’s a little disingenuous to just call it a grab bag of futures when each piece is equivalent to a 1st round pick. Yes the package will have a good amount of futures but they aren’t a random smattering. It’s filled with quality not some Ryder + Halak + 2nd nonsense.

Again, I understand the position of not wanting to trade Gibson and only entertaining overpays as an offer. I’m just saying an offer that amounts to the value of 4 x 1st rounders is a non starter and no one in the league would give that value up for a goalie, even an elite one with a great contract. Which is fine as it doesn’t seem like any Ducks fan wants to even entertain trading him.

 

[Svechhammer]

I think it’s a little disingenuous to just call it a grab bag of futures when each piece is equivalent to a 1st round pick. Yes the package will have a good amount of futures but they aren’t a random smattering. It’s filled with quality not some Ryder + Halak + 2nd nonsense.

Again, I understand the position of not wanting to trade Gibson and only entertaining overpays as an offer. I’m just saying an offer that amounts to the value of 4 x 1st rounders is a non starter and no one in the league would give that value up for a goalie, even an elite one with a great contract. Which is fine as it doesn’t seem like any Ducks fan wants to even entertain trading him.

Yeah if you look at some of the trades that have been made recently around goalies, an ask of a 1st and 3 top prospects of a loaded prospect pool is absolutely asking too much. He might be worth it, but that's just not the value that goalies carry nowadays on the market.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Premise being the Ducks are rebuilding and Gibson has lots of value. Carolina stands to lose a good D in the expansion draft so can certainly afford to trade one as part of a package for a badly needed improvement in goal. Also Ducks have Dostal on the way eventually, so don't need a long-term commitment back in goal.

As far as Anaheim goes, since they're rebuilding, presumably Lindholm or Fowler could be traded for prospects /picks some time between now and the expansion draft, so whomever they acquire from Carolina(who would be much younger than whomever they trade away) could theoretically be protected.

Something around Bean, Mrazek and what plusses for Gibson?

You’d have to send Jarvis for it to make any sense. Gibson is still young

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Yeah if you look at some of the trades that have been made recently around goalies, an ask of a 1st and 3 top prospects of a loaded prospect pool is absolutely asking too much. He might be worth it, but that's just not the value that goalies carry nowadays on the market.

If you look at some of the trades recently around goalies, none of them were as good as Gibson. There is no indication that the Ducks have any desire to move him, nor that Gibby wants to go anywhere. If a team calls to try and pry him away the asking price should be astronomical, no reason for the Ducks to move their best player (in his prime on a great contract) just because someone offers what may be considered fair market value.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I think trading Gibson to Colorado would make a ton more sense than the Hurricanes. Gibson to Colorado would make the Avs an instant contender. Plus I dislike seeing the Ducks waste him in his prime when he's a Vezina-calibre goaltender.

Would make a proposal but don't know what both parties would seem fair.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Dostal coming, they can. would save them serious cap; 6 400 000.
Trade Fowler to boot, would save another 6 500 000, thou...i don't see anyone wanting someone like declining Cam Fowler.

Stolartz is a decent backup, he can win you games in that role.
- or get a goalie back in the trade.

Dostal is a long way off. Ducks are in a fine spot cap wise going forward.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

You’d have to send Jarvis for it to make any sense. Gibson is still young

And the conversation would end right there.

If you look at some of the trades recently around goalies, none of them were as good as Gibson. There is no indication that the Ducks have any desire to move him, nor that Gibby wants to go anywhere. If a team calls to try and pry him away the asking price should be astronomical, no reason for the Ducks to move their best player (in his prime on a great contract) just because someone offers what may be considered fair market value.

There's an overpay and then there's just outrageous and not in the realm of reality. If it's going to take an offer that is valued at 4 x 1st round picks to get it done then it's just not getting done. And again, that's fine but it's just not a reasonable price. Please don't confuse the use of reasonable here as to mean 'fair value'. An overpay is absolutely warranted but that type of package is just Looney Tunes.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I think trading Gibson to Colorado would make a ton more sense than the Hurricanes. Gibson to Colorado would make the Avs an instant contender. Plus I dislike seeing the Ducks waste him in his prime when he's a Vezina-calibre goaltender.

Would make a proposal but don't know what both parties would seem fair.

Well judging by the requirements laid out so far it would likely take this, and even then not so sure Ducks posters would agree...

- Francouz/Grubauer
- 2021 1st
- Barron
- Byram
- Newhook

 

[Stephen]

Ah so we are supposed to be modeling our rebuild after Toronto and Ottawa? They haven't exactly shown anyone how to build a team to win playoff rounds have they?

There's quite a few people who seem to think every bad team should sell off their entire core and tank for several years. That's not how you build a successful team. A lot of teams that are futile for years and collect a bounty of young talent (Edmonton + Toronto etc) are struggling to take the next step and become true contenders, because they rely too heavily on kids and lack key veterans. Anaheim is way ahead of those teams in their build if they keep their elite goalie and strong defensive players, while continuing to add blue chip youngsters like Drysdale and Zegras. There is absolutely no reason to aspire to get worse.

I don’t really have much of an investment in how Anaheim chooses to rebuild, and you can disparage Toronto, Edmonton or Ottawa all you want.

But if the general plan is to get to the bottom of the standings so you can be at the top of the draft board for a couple of years as a traditional rebuild aims to do, holding onto an elite goalie in his mid to late 20s isn’t exactly the way to accomplish either one efficiently. Gibson will keep you from sinking too far in the standings, and barring winning the lottery, Anaheim will likely not draft as high as they would have otherwise. Maybe they’re smart and they get the best of the bunch, that will be for Anaheim to work out.

 

[blankall]

The time window of the rebuild is really the key here. If Ducks believe they can compete for the cup within two years or so then they should keep Gibson.

But if they really plan to do complete rebuild and think it will take 3-5 years before they are real contenders then they should move Gibson. While 30+ years old Gibson might be still a great goaltender there is always a possibility that he will be just or good/average at that age. And there is always the risk of injury. Plus if they hold on to Gibson he might be the sole reason they will draft somewhere between 5-10 spots instead of 1-4 over the next couple of years and thus making it less likely to be successful in the rebuild. Also the price Gibson should fetch from a team contending now should be good and therefore further help the rebuild to succeed.

Personally I don't believe Gibson will be moved because I don't think Duck management have the guts and/or will to do a real rebuild. But I think they should. So I would move Gibson, Rakell and possibly Lindholm as well and build around the guys have drafted lately and will in the next 2-3 years even though there is always a lot of risk when doing a complete rebuild.

Agreed. A guy like Gibson comes along very rarely. Probably 5 or so times a generation. If the Ducks can compete in 2-3 years, keep him. If it's longer move him. The problem for the Ducks is that the new draft rules create so much uncertainty with a rebuild, and don't really allow the tank get guaranteed #1 overall and build strategy. Instead you have to just hope for the best out of a handful of 1-10 picks.

 

[GhostOfWildWing]

I think it should also be said that a competitive environment can do a lot more to develop prospects than a losing one. True superstars are going to succeed no matter what, but the next tier of guys down, I feel confidence is a major factor in their play and development and you don't have much confidence when your team is constantly losing 7 out of every ten games. Gibson helps the 'rebuild' in that he gives them a better shot to win / stay in games.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I don’t really have much of an investment in how Anaheim chooses to rebuild, and you can disparage Toronto, Edmonton or Ottawa all you want.

But if the general plan is to get to the bottom of the standings so you can be at the top of the draft board for a couple of years as a traditional rebuild aims to do, holding onto an elite goalie in his mid to late 20s isn’t exactly the way to accomplish either one efficiently. Gibson will keep you from sinking too far in the standings, and barring winning the lottery, Anaheim will likely not draft as high as they would have otherwise. Maybe they’re smart and they get the best of the bunch, that will be for Anaheim to work out.

They are already at the bottom of the standings, with Gibson. Bottom five team whose best forward (Getzlaf) should be expected to decline. Drafted just two slots behind the last place team in the league.

You really think the best course of action is to move the team's best player and arguably only established elite talent, who is signed long term through his prime, in order to gain a couple extra lottery balls?

The team is clearly positioned to have a chance at winning the lottery in the next couple years. Do you have to finish dead last to be considered on a proper rebuilding path?

We are seeing rebuilding teams like Toronto and Edmonton run into a wall because they can't find their Gibson, and have made mistakes trying to add key veterans to their core. The Ducks are miles ahead of where those teams started their build because they already have their goaltending and some great defensive players (Lindholm, Silfverberg etc). Adding high end young talent like Zegras, Drysdale and the next couple early picks - to an already solid core of defensive insulation + elite goaltending seems like a way more clear path to returning to contention than conducting a fire sale and banking on the lottery.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I think trading Gibson to Colorado would make a ton more sense than the Hurricanes. Gibson to Colorado would make the Avs an instant contender. Plus I dislike seeing the Ducks waste him in his prime when he's a Vezina-calibre goaltender.

Would make a proposal but don't know what both parties would seem fair.

The Avs were 6th best in goals against per game last season, and Francouz was 6th in the NHL in SV% (min 15 games played) while playing 34 games. And both Francouz and Grubauer are under contract for this coming season for less than $6m combined, and we have Justus Annunen coming. The only problem we had in net was because both goalies were injured, not because they aren't good enough.

Why exactly do the Avs need to give up the insane asking price for a goalie we don't really need?

 

[duxfan1101]

Well judging by the requirements laid out so far it would likely take this, and even then not so sure Ducks posters would agree...

- Francouz/Grubauer
- 2021 1st
- Barron
- Byram
- Newhook

Byram and Newhook are far better prospects than anyone the Canes have (I don't consider Necas a prospect). In a deal for Gibson, I'd only expect one of those two to be involved, likely not both.

 

[bsu]

Some of these proposals are literally embarrassing.

 

[pbgoalie]

Fowler isn’t really declining, last year was arguably his best year since his rookie year.

Fowler will age fine, his skating is still elite level and he doesn’t really take hits at all..... I think a lot of teams would love to add Fowler.... he’s not a #1 but he’s a pretty good #2

Sadly, it seems every time Cam starts looking like he’s playing his best, he gets a crazy injury. It really sucks, because when he’s playing well, he makes things look so easy

 

[Adam da bomb]

Well judging by the requirements laid out so far it would likely take this, and even then not so sure Ducks posters would agree...

- Francouz/Grubauer
- 2021 1st
- Barron
- Byram
- Newhook

Newhook > Suzuki
Jarvis > Barron

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Newhook > Suzuki
Jarvis > Barron

Sure. I mean I wasn't doing it exactly apples to apples. Different teams are going to have different prospects obviously and they will have different values. I was just approximating based on the Avs system.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Byram and Newhook are far better prospects than anyone the Canes have (I don't consider Necas a prospect). In a deal for Gibson, I'd only expect one of those two to be involved, likely not both.

We have this Seth Jarvis guy who's pretty good ya know...