Confirmed with Link: Jets sign Mathieu Perreault (3 years x $3M per year)

[theamazingchris]

I am gonna put most of it on puck luck. MP had a teeny tiny shooting percentage and it is climbing back to where it should be. Incredibly, his current shooting percentage (15.8) is below his career average (16.9). That is crazy.

*sigh* it sucks that when that inevitably regresses people will be disappointed because he's only a great player instead of a once-in-a-lifetime talent. But hey, we have two years after this one at $3 mil, so those people can go suck lemons.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

*sigh* it sucks that when that inevitably regresses people will be disappointed because he's only a great player instead of a once-in-a-lifetime talent. But hey, we have two years after this one at $3 mil, so those people can go suck lemons.

I think truck is saying that it IS regressing to its norm. His norm over his career is 16.9%, which is nutz.

 

[sully1410]

I think truck is saying that it IS regressing to its norm. His norm over his career is 16.9%, which is nutz.

How is he not putting up 76g every year and shooting his glove out of the air? He even has the sick dangles and **** too. Watching him, with his speed and stuff, he makes other players look like fools.

 

[theamazingchris]

I think truck is saying that it IS regressing to its norm. His norm over his career is 16.9%, which is nutz.

Yes, of course, but even if he's one of the best shooters in the NHL (which he might be) he's probably still got another 3-5% downward regression over the rest of his career to look forward to. And after a couple of seasons of an 8% shooting percentage (which isn't outside the realm of possibility) I'm sure that we'll hear some grumbling.

 

[theamazingchris]

I think truck is saying that it IS regressing to its norm. His norm over his career is 16.9%, which is nutz.

Ok, responding to the Ice Caps thread post. I meant "regress" in a looser sense. By which I mean, I doubt that Perreault is a Stamkos-level shooting talent that can maintain a stupid high sh%. It's possible, but I don't think it's probable. (Heck, I'm not even confident Stamkos can maintain it.) Even if he's a very good shooter, somewhere in the realm of 12% is where I'd put my money on his eventual career sh% landing in the end. So I meant that it will "regress" to what I believe his career sh% will eventually be, which is not particularly rigorous, but hey, I'm not a statistician. But even if it does go down to 12%, this won't be any less of an excellent signing, and Perreault won't be any less of an excellent player. Which was pretty much my original point.

BTW: Guess who else is in the top ten for sh% since the lockout? (with 1000+ min. played) Yanic Perreault. Good few years for Perreaults in the NHL.

 

[truck]

Yes, of course, but even if he's one of the best shooters in the NHL (which he might be) he's probably still got another 3-5% downward regression over the rest of his career to look forward to. And after a couple of seasons of an 8% shooting percentage (which isn't outside the realm of possibility) I'm sure that we'll hear some grumbling.

I don't necessarily think he will regress a ton. He could and it may, but there are players that sustain shooting percentages in that range.

It isn't common, but it happens.

For example:

Alex Tanguay has a career shooting percentage of 18.7 after nearly 1000 games
Steven Stamkos is at 17.4
Mark Parrish 17.3
Tyler Bozak 16.4
Sergei Kostitsyn 16.3
Brenden Morrow 15.9 he is also nearing 1000 games
David Desharnais 15.3
Brad Marchand 15.3

Granted, anything above 15 is pretty rare.

Antro finished his career at 14.1, Welly at 14.2.

Heat maps show that MP pretty much only shoots from near the net - remarkably similar to Tanguay and Morrow.

Tanguay: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/i...entType='SHOT',+'GOAL'&r2type=1&r2strength=#8

Morrow: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/i...eventType='SHOT',+'GOAL'&r2type=1&r2strength=

 

[robertocarlos]

How is he not putting up 76g every year and shooting his glove out of the air? He even has the sick dangles and **** too. Watching him, with his speed and stuff, he makes other players look like fools.

I could not believe his first goal last night. How he knew to go where he went? That is Fefe type hockey brains except P put the puck in the net.

 

[theamazingchris]

I don't necessarily think he will regress a ton. He could and it may, but there are players that sustain shooting percentages in that range.

It isn't common, but it happens.

For example:

Alex Tanguay has a career shooting percentage of 18.7 after nearly 1000 games
Steven Stamkos is at 17.4
Mark Parrish 17.3
Tyler Bozak 16.4
Sergei Kostitsyn 16.3
Brenden Morrow 15.9 he is also nearing 1000 games
David Desharnais 15.3
Brad Marchand 15.3

Granted, anything above 15 is pretty rare.

Antro finished his career at 14.1, Welly at 14.2.

Heat maps show that MP pretty much only shoots from near the net - remarkably similar to Tanguay and Morrow.

Tanguay: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/i...entType='SHOT',+'GOAL'&r2type=1&r2strength=#8

Morrow: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/i...eventType='SHOT',+'GOAL'&r2type=1&r2strength=

Mhm, I agree that it's possible. But I'm the kind of guy that likes to hedge my bets when it comes to expectations.

 

[garret9]

High personal sh% are different than high on-ice sh%.

Lot more control to it.

 

[truck]

High personal sh% are different than high on-ice sh%.

Lot more control to it.

FWIW, his 5 on 5 on ice shooting percentage is currently at a career low at 7.09. He was above 10 in each of the last three years. Pretty well all of his 5 on 5 numbers are down - the difference has been made up by a boost in his 5 on 4 numbers.

I suspect both will move back towards his career norms.

 

[theamazingchris]

High personal sh% are different than high on-ice sh%.

Lot more control to it.

I'm sure they are, but betting on a 15+ sh% staying that way still seems rash imo. But then again, I'm not familiar with any work in the area, has it been done? How many games is sufficient before we can get a fairly small confidence interval for personal sh%? I imagine it'd be several seasons worth, but I admit not knowing.

 

[Smelling Salt]

Interesting fact and sort of on-topic: Former Jet and everyone's favourite walrus Paul Maclean is 3rd all time in shooting percentage (21.4%) amongst shooters with 800 or more shots.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

I don't necessarily think he will regress a ton. He could and it may, but there are players that sustain shooting percentages in that range.

It isn't common, but it happens.

For example:

Alex Tanguay has a career shooting percentage of 18.7 after nearly 1000 games
Steven Stamkos is at 17.4
Mark Parrish 17.3
Tyler Bozak 16.4
Sergei Kostitsyn 16.3
Brenden Morrow 15.9 he is also nearing 1000 games
David Desharnais 15.3
Brad Marchand 15.3

Granted, anything above 15 is pretty rare.

Antro finished his career at 14.1, Welly at 14.2.

Heat maps show that MP pretty much only shoots from near the net - remarkably similar to Tanguay and Morrow.

Tanguay: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/i...entType='SHOT',+'GOAL'&r2type=1&r2strength=#8

Morrow: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/i...eventType='SHOT',+'GOAL'&r2type=1&r2strength=

*cough* check my location *cough*

 

[truck]

*cough* check my location *cough*

meowmeowmeow

 

[Blue Shakehead]

High personal sh% are different than high on-ice sh%.

Lot more control to it.

Are you saying that you have more control over your own personal shot than you do over you and your teammates shots combined? Outrageous.

 

[garret9]

Are you saying that you have more control over your own personal shot than you do over you and your teammates shots combined? Outrageous.

I know.

Yet some reason people seem to talk as if they are the same...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm sure they are, but betting on a 15+ sh% staying that way still seems rash imo. But then again, I'm not familiar with any work in the area, has it been done? How many games is sufficient before we can get a fairly small confidence interval for personal sh%? I imagine it'd be several seasons worth, but I admit not knowing.

Perreault has had a consistently high sh% for 6 NHL seasons counting this one + 1 AHL season. I think the total number of shots is more significant than the number of seasons. 3 of those NHL seasons totaled 4, 7 and 6 goals so not very many shots in those years.

He may simply be a superior shooter but given the small number of shots I agree that some skepticism is called for. He has 66 goals on 390 shots. That's about a season and a half for a full time top 6 winger so that would equate to ~ a 43 goal/season winger! A steal for no assets and 3 mil$/yr. EK had a 10.4% in his 30 goal season. On the same # of shots MP would have had 48 goals with his career avg sh%. Hmmmm.
Just having a little fun but it sure looks like we have to keep putting MP in situations where he gets a lot of shots.

 

[garret9]

One thing should be noted is that with greater proportion of his TOI being PP for the Jets over previous years, his sh% could rise.

 

[powder88]

I know we are not really allowed to talk about our "observations" or "perceptions" here, but I have been very struck by how much penetration MP is able to get into the centre of the ice when he sets up on the half wall on the PP. Where Little and Fefe seem to be confined to within five or six feet of the boards, MP seems to routinely have control of the puck well inside the circle in a very threatening position. Any one else notice this or what he's doing differently to allow himself to take that piece of ice?

 

[truck]

I know we are not really allowed to talk about our "observations" or "perceptions" here, but I have been very struck by how much penetration MP is able to get into the centre of the ice when he sets up on the half wall on the PP. Where Little and Fefe seem to be confined to within five or six feet of the boards, MP seems to routinely have control of the puck well inside the circle in a very threatening position. Any one else notice this or what he's doing differently to allow himself to take that piece of ice?

I think his puck skills and his ability to move the puck either forehand or backhand make him for confident. He can handle a stick check and not lose the puck. He knows this. He keeps the defender on edge and forces them to defender to react to him. Scheif on the otherhand more often looks to reacts to the defender.

Petan manages the half wall similarly to Perreault. He freezes defenders and at times moves them.

 

[garret9]

I know we are not really allowed to talk about our "observations" or "perceptions" here, but I have been very struck by how much penetration MP is able to get into the centre of the ice when he sets up on the half wall on the PP. Where Little and Fefe seem to be confined to within five or six feet of the boards, MP seems to routinely have control of the puck well inside the circle in a very threatening position. Any one else notice this or what he's doing differently to allow himself to take that piece of ice?

I believe the right wording is "be aware that observations and perceptions are observations and perceptions".

And I've noticed similar things.

 

[Whileee]

I think his puck skills and his ability to move the puck either forehand or backhand make him for confident. He can handle a stick check and not lose the puck. He knows this. He keeps the defender on edge and forces them to defender to react to him. Scheif on the otherhand more often looks to reacts to the defender.

Petan manages the half wall similarly to Perreault. He freezes defenders and at times moves them.

You know who is really good on the half-wall on the PP? Ehlers. He has a very high panic point, a great sense of space, good vision, quickness, and he is very good at maneuvering to create lanes and space for himself and team-mates. He also has a wicked shot.