Post-Game Talk: Jets 6 - Mild 3

Jack7222

Registered User
Mar 17, 2021
886
2,225
Well that explains a lot

He did look pretty out of sorts last few games. Hoping a sit brings him back to his best.

Based on the reality of where we are and deployment of players going on years now.... I think a winning lineup is this

CSV - coaches/players want this so we go with it
Nino-Names-Ehlers - these guys had chemistry and defensive awareness
Perfetti-Monahan-Iafallo - this is 2a/2b situation - depending on which line is clicking
Barron-Lowry-Apples - stop wasting Nino on our checking line, Barron provides the speed this line is missing

Murat has a great point - we have two 'scoring lines' that are not playing D - on a team where D is first...

Team has no chemistry right now... and Bones needs to get back to rolling four lines...

I don't understand the reluctance to use Nino to grease other lines. Guy is a gamer, plays tough, decent playmaker etc. You'd think he'd get slotted in elsewhere a little bit just to see.
 

JetsFan815

Registered User
Jan 16, 2012
19,226
24,331
You should apply for a job as NHL GM since you seem to have figured the way to win a cup. Once you secure your job, I'm sure it will be easy to go out and get the first line talent needed to win all their matchups. Seems easy enough, especially if you are working in the most difficult market to attract talent to

As I've pointed out to you repeated times, chevy has built the kind of depth that can win. Look at it this way...

Each game has 3 matchups: even strength, special teams and goaltending. IF your team can win 2 of those 3, you're likely winning the game

The reason the Jets were on a heater was because they were winning 5v5 and goaltending. When the 5v5 went cold, they dipped. Now, 5v5 is still cold but they're winning the special teams and goaltending matchups

In other words, don't be so sure that there only way to win a cup is with a dominant 1st line 5v5. In fact, look at the Oilers when they had mcdrai owning other teams 5v5 and on the PP... but they didn't have the goaltender to win games if the PP faltered.

Your assumption that you need to dominate every shift 5v5 is where all the rest of your questionable takes start

Where all your questionable takes start are in assuming there is some kind of tradeoff between 5v5, specialteams and goaltending. Those are 3 completely independent situations and each should be optimized on their own. You can't say "oh well the PP has been good for 3 games, let the 5v5 play rot even if there are a couple of easy fixes".

It is also absolutely wild to suggest that the Jets concede their top line mins which take up about 33-38% of the available icetime in that situation as lost or at best breaking even just because "chevy's depth". The Jets have defensive depth, not scoring depth. The 4th line hasn't scored in ages and the 3rd line has 2 goals in long period of time.

I think the Jets roster is good enough for them to deploy it in a way where their top line is winning their matchups more often than not, as are the bottom 3 lines. I don't care about dominating every 5v5 shift. I care that the lines are able to win their matchups or saw them off more often than lose them. The top line is not even close to that. Here are their primary matchup results since they were reunited.

vs Pittsburgh: Crosby line matchup: Result handily lost

vs Philly: Coutourier line matchup: So handily lost that the coach broke them up

vs Vancouver: Bluger/Pettersson shared: won

vs Flames: Backlund: Handily lost

vs Wild: Hartman: Handily lost

They are running 1W 4Ls on their matchups in this period.

In November and December by contrast the Jets top line was winning their matchups more often than not, often going against elite top lines like the MacKinnon, Danault lines and coming out ahead or sawing them off against other good top lines (Erikson Ek). During this period the bottom 3 lines were also doing well due to the pressure their top line was building on the opposition.

To win a cup your top line doesn't need to a top-5 elite dominant line that crushes their opposition but they can't be as terrible as what Bones is putting out right now that is getting crushed on the regular and spending their shifts pinned deep inside their own zone.
 

JetsFan815

Registered User
Jan 16, 2012
19,226
24,331
Based on the reality of where we are and deployment of players going on years now.... I think a winning lineup is this

CSV - coaches/players want this so we go with it
Nino-Names-Ehlers - these guys had chemistry and defensive awareness
Perfetti-Monahan-Iafallo - this is 2a/2b situation - depending on which line is clicking
Barron-Lowry-Apples - stop wasting Nino on our checking line, Barron provides the speed this line is missing

Murat has a great point - we have two 'scoring lines' that are not playing D - on a team where D is first...

Team has no chemistry right now... and Bones needs to get back to rolling four lines...

Coach will never deploy Lowry in a 4th line role and to be honest nor should he as Lowry has been one of our better players who also brings in physicality and grit.
 

Buffdog

Registered User
Feb 13, 2019
6,297
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Where all your questionable takes start are in assuming there is some kind of tradeoff between 5v5, specialteams and goaltending. Those are 3 completely independent situations and each should be optimized on their own. You can't say "oh well the PP has been good for 3 games, let the 5v5 play rot even if there are a couple of easy fixes".

It is also absolutely wild to suggest that the Jets concede their top line mins which take up about 33-38% of the available icetime in that situation as lost or at best breaking even just because "chevy's depth". The Jets have defensive depth, not scoring depth. The 4th line hasn't scored in ages and the 3rd line has 2 goals in long period of time.

I think the Jets roster is good enough for them to deploy it in a way where their top line is winning their matchups more often than not, as are the bottom 3 lines. I don't care about dominating every 5v5 shift. I care that the lines are able to win their matchups or saw them off more often than lose them. The top line is not even close to that. Here are their primary matchup results since they were reunited.

vs Pittsburgh: Crosby line matchup: Result handily lost

vs Philly: Coutourier line matchup: So handily lost that the coach broke them up

vs Vancouver: Bluger/Pettersson shared: won

vs Flames: Backlund: Handily lost

vs Wild: Hartman: Handily lost

They are running 1W 4Ls on their matchups in this period.

In November and December by contrast the Jets top line was winning their matchups more often than not, often going against elite top lines like the MacKinnon, Danault lines and coming out ahead or sawing them off against other good top lines (Erikson Ek). During this period the bottom 3 lines were also doing well due to the pressure their top line was building on the opposition.

To win a cup your top line doesn't need to a top-5 elite dominant line that crushes their opposition but they can't be as terrible as what Bones is putting out right now that is getting crushed on the regular and spending their shifts pinned deep inside their own zone.
Name one team in the league that wins all their matchups 5v5, special teams AND goaltending consistently over the course of the 82 games of a regular season. I'll wait.

Also, run the xGF% or whatever for all four lines across the same time periods you mentionned above. I'm guessing that it's not just one player placed on one line that's causing all the ills you're belly-aching about. The entire team got away from its effort level and structure during the skid, and everyone had bought in them we were on a tear.

I feel like I've said it 50 times... if the team isn't playing the way they ought to, line combinations won't save it. When they are, line combinations aren't gonna matter as much as you think
 
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Jack7222

Registered User
Mar 17, 2021
886
2,225
Where all your questionable takes start are in assuming there is some kind of tradeoff between 5v5, specialteams and goaltending. Those are 3 completely independent situations and each should be optimized on their own. You can't say "oh well the PP has been good for 3 games, let the 5v5 play rot even if there are a couple of easy fixes".

It is also absolutely wild to suggest that the Jets concede their top line mins which take up about 33-38% of the available icetime in that situation as lost or at best breaking even just because "chevy's depth". The Jets have defensive depth, not scoring depth. The 4th line hasn't scored in ages and the 3rd line has 2 goals in long period of time.

I think the Jets roster is good enough for them to deploy it in a way where their top line is winning their matchups more often than not, as are the bottom 3 lines. I don't care about dominating every 5v5 shift. I care that the lines are able to win their matchups or saw them off more often than lose them. The top line is not even close to that. Here are their primary matchup results since they were reunited.

vs Pittsburgh: Crosby line matchup: Result handily lost

vs Philly: Coutourier line matchup: So handily lost that the coach broke them up

vs Vancouver: Bluger/Pettersson shared: won

vs Flames: Backlund: Handily lost

vs Wild: Hartman: Handily lost

They are running 1W 4Ls on their matchups in this period.

In November and December by contrast the Jets top line was winning their matchups more often than not, often going against elite top lines like the MacKinnon, Danault lines and coming out ahead or sawing them off against other good top lines (Erikson Ek). During this period the bottom 3 lines were also doing well due to the pressure their top line was building on the opposition.

To win a cup your top line doesn't need to a top-5 elite dominant line that crushes their opposition but they can't be as terrible as what Bones is putting out right now that is getting crushed on the regular and spending their shifts pinned deep inside their own zone.

i don't even understand how people can be making these arguments after we literally just saw a different version of our top line dominate for two months leading to us being the number 1 team in the NHL.
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,579
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Winnipeg
Yes. Sh% may be partly just luck, or variance. But it is also a reflection of play. Shooting when they should pass and passing when they should shoot, for example. So sh% is a reflection of the quality of play. Play better and the sh% goes up.
There's definitely a psychological factor to SH%. But there's always a lot of luck involved. Monahan's falling-down-redirection goal the other night is a pretty good example. Hockey goals are highly influenced by chance. As Gretzky and Michael Scott said, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." But in most player's cases you miss about 95% of the shots you do take...
 

WolfHouse

Registered User
Oct 4, 2020
9,264
14,105
Coach will never deploy Lowry in a 4th line role and to be honest nor should he as Lowry has been one of our better players who also brings in physicality and grit.
Checking line remains the checking line - which is essentially our 2nd line all season... Lowry is not losing ice time

Basically you'd have a 2a/2b scoring line instead of a '2nd and 4th' line... depending on the opposition or who's clicking, one line could gets more minutes than the other

Team is drifting into overplaying the top line - and away from what took the Jets to first overall
 

kanadalainen

A pint of dark matter, please.
Jan 7, 2017
20,358
60,518
The 100th Meridian
Probably existential dread. It is nagging.
kafka2.gif

Ehlers might be reading to much Kafka.
 

Adam da bomb

Registered User
May 1, 2016
12,693
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The people who think Ehlers should be on top line over kfc are probably right, but, it must be pretty frustrating as it will never happen.
 
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Buffdog

Registered User
Feb 13, 2019
6,297
15,176
i don't even understand how people can be making these arguments after we literally just saw a different version of our top line dominate for two months leading to us being the number 1 team in the NHL.
If you're referring to ESV, which two months are you talking about? You may want to go back and look at usage charts. They were first used together Dec 13 vs San Jose, they went on a 5 game tear until Dec 22 vs Boston. Then they were essentially pointless for 4 games up until San Jose on Jan 4. They had minor success for a couple of games until they went dry and Bones spotted Names between Ehlers and Vilardi, ending with Schief's injury on Jan 11th

TL/DR:
They were together for less than a month
They had multiple pointless games during that stretch
 
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Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
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There's definitely a psychological factor to SH%. But there's always a lot of luck involved. Monahan's falling-down-redirection goal the other night is a pretty good example. Hockey goals are highly influenced by chance. As Gretzky and Michael Scott said, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." But in most player's cases you miss about 95% of the shots you do take...

Yes. But that goes away with a larger sample. 1 player for 1 or 2 games vs 12 players for 15 games. I don't know if 12x15 is a big enough sample but it is closer than that 1x1 or 2.

I think there is a team state of mind involved when a whole team goes cold, especially if it is for more than 1 or 2 games.

We had Vivaldi's goal going in off his skate last game. Luck, yes. But also happened because he was in the right place. Just having more of that net front presence will lead to more goals and an increase in sh%.
 
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MardyBum

Registered User
Jul 4, 2012
16,453
16,641
Winnipeg, Manitoba
Ehlers Scheifele Vilardi outscored their opponents 18-4.

Connor Scheifele Ehlers outscored their opponents 6-1.

Connor Scheif Vilardi is currently at 6-6.

Scheif's most common line, Connor Scheif Iafallo is 10-9.

You can guess which 2 have better fancy stats as well. CSV definitely hasn't worked yet.

They're killing it on the PP with Monahan though, so keep that together :thumbu:(on my phone forgive any mistakes :laugh:)
 
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