Post-Game Talk: Jets 3 - Bolts 2 in OT

[Stumbledore]

I was thinking about this yesterday and came to the conclusion that the idea that teams need equal-ish opportunities on the PP is a byproduct of how our society/culture values "fairness" so highly. The refs are just reverting back to their subconscious kindergarten selves

I was reading about this a few weeks ago and the point was made that no, the refs aren't out to get your team, it's just a subconscious bias. They tend to call more penalties against the team that's leading. Some bright spark somewhere did an analysis from box scores and it showed that something like 72% of all penalties are called against the team that was leading at the time. NOTE: I don't recall the exact percent but it was around that number.

For example, last night Samberg got sticked in the face right in front of the ref and there was no call. We were leading 2-0 then. Less than a minute later, we got called for a crosscheck that they could never find on the replay. So we all figure that the ref is out to screw the Jets. Nope, they say that refs just naturally don't see fouls against the team thats leading, but see stuff done against the team thats trailing.

 

[surixon]

That’s 2 big adds but agreed Chevy might get aggressive if he thinks this team has any type of real chance to go deep. He was definitely reluctant to put our 1st into play last season but if we are fighting for the first couple spots in the division who knows. I’d prefer targeting players with term over pure rentals.

Cap space will also dictate what he can add. My guess is he can add one big piece but likely not two unless we can pull a Vegas and put someone on the IR to end the year.

 

[Buffdog]

I was reading about this a few weeks ago and the point was made that no, the refs aren't out to get your team, it's just a subconscious bias. They tend to call more penalties against the team that's leading. Some bright spark somewhere did an analysis from box scores and it showed that something like 72% of all penalties are called against the team that was leading at the time. NOTE: I don't recall the exact percent but it was around that number.

For example, last night Samberg got sticked in the face right in front of the ref and there was no call. We were leading 2-0 then. Less than a minute later, we got called for a crosscheck that they could never find on the replay. So we all figure that the ref is out to screw the Jets. Nope, they say that refs just naturally don't see fouls against the team thats leading, but see stuff done against the team thats trailing.

There's that for sure. I've reffed enough that I understand at least what goes through MY mind during a game.

Some of the worst are spring tournament games when ypu have a little all star team out there vs a bunch of scrubs. Since the weaker team has to work so much harder at the start just to keep up, they fatigue more quickly. So as the game goes on and rhe score gets lopsided, they become more likely to have to hook or hold just to defend the strnger skating team. I KNOW they're committing offenses, but do I really want to put the stronger team on a PP when they're already up a touchdown?

Usually I'll go to both benches and just let them know that I have to call anything blatant and maybe let the better team's coaches know that the more they run it up, the less I'm calling (in a roundabout way)

 

[KingBogo]

Cap space will also dictate what he can add. My guess is he can add one big piece but likely not two unless we can pull a Vegas and put someone on the IR to end the year.

Rolling the dice on signing Helly and Scheifele long term, Chevy needed this to be a good team. It is starting to look like we will be quite competitive. I'm very curious if Chevy gets really aggressive and tries to open up a 3-4 year window while he still has his drafted core all in their prime. Getting a big upgrade on RHD is the most important, but to do it right will be costly with futures.

 

[surixon]

Rolling the dice on signing Helly and Scheifele long term, Chevy needed this to be a good team. It is starting to look like we will be quite competitive. I'm very curious if Chevy gets really aggressive and tries to open up a 3-4 year window while he still has his drafted core all in their prime. Getting a big upgrade on RHD is the most important, but to do it right will be costly with futures.

That to me is where he needs to be aggressive. We have the prospect pool and good depth at LW in the pipe to move one or two of those pieces for a topend RD with term.

Not enough spots for all of McGroarty, Lambert, Chibrikov, Luscious, Barlow to win spots in thus teams top 6 with Mark, KC, Cole, and Vilardi staking claim to 4 of them.

 

[KingBogo]

That to me is where he needs to be aggressive. We have the prospect pool and good depth at LW in the pipe to move one or two of those pieces for a topend RD with term.

Not enough spots for all of McGroarty, Lambert, Chibrikov, Luscious, Barlow to win spots in thus teams top 6 with Mark, KC, Cole, and Vilardi staking claim to 4 of them.

Agreed. Chevy very well make an all in move that won't be popular with those that love following the prospects. At least IMO McGroarty is the only one you keep off the table.

 

[surixon]

Agreed. Chevy very well make an all in move that won't be popular with those that love following the prospects. At least IMO McGroarty is the only one you keep off the table.

Him and Salomonsson for me are the untouchables.

I'm good with giving anyone else up in the right deal. But the piece needs to have term for me. I'm not ok with a pure rental unless they are depth pieces like Namestnikov that cost much less.

 

[Dale53130]

Why? The 2nd and 3rd lines are getting between 13-16 mins a night. The players on those lines are much better and that is not a heavy workload. I am good those lines playing much more than the 4th. Once Gabe is healthy the 4th line is better off exploiting matchups rather than diluting the talent through all lines in the name of running balanced lines.

It'll never happen anyway, though I certainly like the idea. Our forward depth is making up for our good enough/not great defense. Seattle last year (and I wouldn't write them off so quickly this year), and Vegas since they joined the league, shows me that you can do a lot with 4 lines; instead of top-heavy offensive teams.

If we weren't adding Vilardi back, then I wouldn't change anything about what we're doing now.

I'm also not a fan of bunching up the most talented players on the same line, especially when they're point producers. Three's a crowd.

Iafallo and Namestnikov have both been tremendous help to their lines, because they're there to offset (or make up) whatever it is that the other two point producers aren't doing. They're the finish that makes it work.

I believe that Perfetti is shifted over to the wing, because it's a hard fit with both he and Ehlers playing on the same side of the rink; too much overlap and a contrast of styles (IMO). It IS working though, but I'm sold that it's because Namestnikov's on that line. He was already working well enough in conjunction with Perfetti, now I think he's working almost as well with Ehlers. To be clear, I'm not making the argument that Namestnikov is the best player on the line, just that he seems to be the right guy for whatever they're trying to get out of playing Ehlers and Perfetti together. He's a less is more kind of a guy, as is Iafallo.

But, Vilardi is coming back, and I would imagine that he'd slide into that 2nd line center role. And he might be great in that role centering Perfetti and Ehlers. I'm skeptical though. Between Vilardi and Namestnikov, Vilardi's going to want his own offense more (numbers). Also, while I understand that Vilardi is a good defensive player, is he as good as Namestnikov, specifically as a defensive center? Do Vilardi and Ehlers' games mesh?

I liked what I saw of Vilardi in the preseason and the first few games this year, in conjunction with Scheifele and KC, but, Iafallo grabbed that spot, and he's been healthy thus far. I'd hate to promote Vilardi to that spot, and then he goes down again; I'm going off of a trend here.

I have no doubt that Perfetti would sustain (even improve upon) his current production, playing with Vilardi, and in @10Ducky10 scenario, playing with Barron; who I wouldn't be in love with promoting because he hasn't been consistent, but he shows promise. You could also slide Perfetti back to being a center in this scenario; which I like because at the end of the day he's a highly skilled playmaker. Maybe we can also see if Barron can finish with regularity.

I'm not touching the 3rd line (10Ducky10 had it as the 4th but it's still the 3rd). Lowry and Apples are close, I think Niederreiter loves playing with them which is why he wants to re-sign here. Dropping Iafallo from 1st to 3rd, and Apples to the 4th line, is fine on paper, but Iafallo and Niederreiter on the same line is redundant. They're of similar archetypes, though Niederreiter has a wider range of what he brings to the table. I think Iafallo is above-average to good defensively, while I think Niederreiter is good to great defensively (note: I'm throwing around the word "elite" which is reserved for lockdown/ace defenders that are in the running for the Selke).

So, we have the 4th line, with Ehlers, Namestnikov, and Gustafsson. Ehlers gets to play exactly the way he wants, and I think this line should be getting almost the same amount as the 2nd, and 3rd lines; and the 1st line gets their minutes pulled down a bit.

If we didn't have an abundance of two-way players coupled with enough offensive talent, then I would fade letting a 4th line get so much daylight. But if we're serious about making a deep run in the playoffs, and don't want to be predictable, I'm very happy to be rolling out 4 lines that are balanced. It'll be harder for the other team to gameplan for.

 

[KingBogo]

Him and Salomonsson for me are the untouchables.

I'm good with giving anyone else up in the right deal. But the piece needs to have term for me. I'm not ok with a pure rental unless they are depth pieces like Namestnikov that cost much less.

Its hard to say with a RHD, to get someone who can make an impact beyond a rental starts getting expensive. Either in acquisition costs for someone younger or taking on a guy with a lot of contract into his mid 30's. I've looked at Parayko a couple times. Same age as Scheifele and Helly, and with 6 more years after this. If the Blues fall back maybe he waives his NTC. You likely get a re-motivated top pairing RHD for another 3 years or so, but then a fading contract.

 

[Thechozen1]

good win, pretty back and forth game, helle rounding into form and vilardi almost back!

As long as they don’t immediately replace Iafallo or mess with the 2nd line’s chemistry.

Logically I’d hope they bump Appleon down and have Vilardi with Lowry and Nino.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I've got a couple bottles of a 25 year Bowmore single malt sitting in the cabinet. Not allowed to touch it but the day will come.

Wow, that must have set you back.

 

[Thechozen1]

finishing first in western conference is now a realistic goal

Except Dallas is probably going to get an additional 15 loser points to propel them to tops in the West. DAMN that team gets a lot of OTL points. They had 14 last season

 

[KingBogo]

Except Dallas is probably going to get an additional 15 loser points to propel them to tops in the West. DAMN that team gets a lot of OTL points. They had 14 last season

They are a good team that plays hard all the way through. On the flip side they improve their OT record and pull away.

 

[Thechozen1]

They are a good team that plays hard all the way through. On the flip side they improve their OT record and pull away.

Exactly why I don’t think the Jets surpass them.

 

[surixon]

Its hard to say with a RHD, to get someone who can make an impact beyond a rental starts getting expensive. Either in acquisition costs for someone younger or taking on a guy with a lot of contract into his mid 30's. I've looked at Parayko a couple times. Same age as Scheifele and Helly, and with 6 more years after this. If the Blues fall back maybe he waives his NTC. You likely get a re-motivated top pairing RHD for another 3 years or so, but then a fading contract.

I don't know about him, he's been poor for a few years. I'd rather try for Poluck if the Islanders fall out of contention. A little younger.

 

[KingBogo]

Exactly why I don’t think the Jets surpass them.

I just want us to be in the top 3. Dallas and Colorado are good teams but we will be competitive. I really don’t want to cross over again and face LV early.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't know about him, he's been poor for a few years. I'd rather try for Poluck if the Islanders fall out of contention. A little younger.

I’m thinking who is more likely to be available. I don’t see NYI baling on the now and moving prime players. If anything I see them being aggressive and moving future’s trying to be competitive now.

 

[surixon]

I’m thinking who is more likely to be available. I don’t see NYI baling on the now and moving prime players. If anything I see them being aggressive and moving future’s trying to be competitive now.

Yeah I doubt they move him either. He's just an example of the caliber and age range I'd be looking at. I'll have to look at the non playoff teams and see who might be available.

 

[KingBogo]

Yeah I doubt they move him either. He's just an example of the caliber and age range I'd be looking at. I'll have to look at the non playoff teams and see who might be available.

If you find any likely targets I’d love to hear your thoughts on them.

 

[surixon]

If you find any likely targets I’d love to hear your thoughts on them.

If the Devils continue to falter then maybe Marino. He's a good suppression RD with a good contract and secondary offense. This is his last year before his trade protection kicks in and they have a top 5 pick in Nemic who will likely be ready for that role next year. Not sure if we have what they'd want as they already have a glut of skilled forwards.

Weager would ve great as well if Calgary continues to fall and elects a full rebuild. He has a NTC though.

Maybe Chychrin on Ottawa if they fall out. He doesn't have much term left though which is why he might be available.

 

[KingBogo]

If the Devils continue to falter then maybe Marino. He's a good suppression RD with a good contract and secondary offense. This is his last year before his trade protection kicks in and they have a top 5 pick in Nemic who will likely be ready for that role next year. Not sure if we have what they'd want as they already have a glut of skilled forwards.

Weager would ve great as well if Calgary continues to fall and elects a full rebuild. He has a NTC though.

Maybe Chychrin on Ottawa if they fall out. He doesn't have much term left though which is why he might be available.

The Devils seem unlikely as they are very young and talented and have no need to panic. Weegar is interesting. I wouldn’t think he would be opposed to Winnipeg. I know he has family in the area as I know a cousin of his quite well.

 

[surixon]

The Devils seem unlikely as they are very young and talented and have no need to panic. Weegar is interesting. I wouldn’t think he would be opposed to Winnipeg. I know he has family in the area as I know a cousin of his quite well.

Yeah, I think Calgary and Ottawa are teams to watch. Both have good dmen that could help us if they enter sell mode. Calgary also seems to be having a locker room crisis where a good number of players want out. I guess we will have to see what happens there. A good many of the other non playoff teams just have a lot of junk on the backend.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

Entertaining game. Some excellent saves by Hellebuyck; he looked really good. Also very nice to see that Appleton was okay. I preferred the 4th line this game than the last one.

Great way to start off a roadtrip.

Hope he plays like Hellybrickwall more often!
I wonder if he starts vs the Panthers.
I think he should start vs Nsv since it is interdivisional.

WHERE NEVER LOSING AGAIN

Ya just jinxed it haha

 

[johnnyonthspot]

Lafallo makes sense to me on the 3rd -
He's the guy they picked to fill in on the first so you'd assume he is a step up from Apples
He also has the size and grit the 3rd line likes - so there is no loss by moving him in on the RW.
He's also a smart player that can adapt his game and potentially bring a more balanced offensive vibe to that line (along with his D).
I see Apples being the guy that moves down to the 4th assuming Vilardi slots back in on the 1st and the 2nd is left as is (which is what I would do).

But I agree - lots of options and a nice problem to have / solve.

I think he should stay on L1.
His pick retrieval skills are incredible and he goes to areas Scheif and Connor do not buy I assume, having seen much less of Vilardi that he does likewise with more offensive ability?
Iafallo is a smarter version but slower of Tanev.

 

[Snowboy]

I was reading about this a few weeks ago and the point was made that no, the refs aren't out to get your team, it's just a subconscious bias. They tend to call more penalties against the team that's leading. Some bright spark somewhere did an analysis from box scores and it showed that something like 72% of all penalties are called against the team that was leading at the time. NOTE: I don't recall the exact percent but it was around that number.

For example, last night Samberg got sticked in the face right in front of the ref and there was no call. We were leading 2-0 then. Less than a minute later, we got called for a crosscheck that they could never find on the replay. So we all figure that the ref is out to screw the Jets. Nope, they say that refs just naturally don't see fouls against the team thats leading, but see stuff done against the team thats trailing.

B.S......Refs have been manipulating games ever since i started watching the NHL about a half century ago. They also have admitted it. It's actually worse these days.......and in my estimation the league with their endorsement of gambling, have put themselves in a very precarious situation that they may regret someday.