For next year, assume Stastny is not resigned.
Connor/Scheifele/Wheels - $12.8 mill
Ehlers/Little/Laine - $12.2 mill
Perreault/Roslovic/Armia - $7 mill
Copp/Lowry/Tanev - $5 mill
PB#1, PB#2 - $1.5 mill
Or about $38.5 mill for forwards.
Morrissey/Trouba - $11.0 mill
Morrow/Buff - $8.5 mill
Kulikov/Myers - $9.8 mill
Chiarot/Poolman - $2.3 mill
Or about $31.6 mill for defensemen.
Hellebuyck- $5.5 mill
Mason - $4.1 mill
Or about $9.6 mill for goalies.
That totals $79.7 million.
With performance bonuses for Laine, Connor, and maybe Roslovic there needs to be a some movement this summer. Myers? Mason? Perreault?
Vesalainen might be the best replacement option for Perreault, from a role and salary perspective.
Small issues with a lot of what's posted here & every little bit helps if the goal is to test to see if the space exists to keep the roster intact & sign Stastny. I've already said I believe there is.
Right off the bat the math is bad. You're off $150,000 on the combined salaries of 81-55-26.
No problem actually as you short yourself on 27-25-29 by $250,000. That's $100,000 & the furthest ahead you'll be as this goes on.
85-52-40. Armia's most comparable is Lowry at $1.15 million AAV. The sum of 85+52 leaves a difference of $2 million in salary. Chevy has set a standard of signing the foot soldiers to bridge deals. I expect Armia to get 2 years a $1.4 million per season. $600,000 saved.
9-17-13. Copp is already under contract for $1 million. If I'm overly generous Tanev gets the same. That puts Lowry at $3 million AAV. Over the coarse of his next contract, that may be his max year & his lowest $1.75. An AAV on a 4 year deal could be in the neighbourhood of $2.25 million. That's another $750,000 in savings. I agree Lowry will get a good contract, but it'll be arranged to keep the AAV low.
You've got a 24 man roster listed. Let's go with a 23 man roster of 2 defencemen & 1 forward. Let's also assume either one of Dano, Petan. The maximum on either would be $900,000. That's another $600,000.
We've barely begun & that's $1.85 million in total, before getting to the real discussion.
I'd suggest the teams long term success hinges on 2 successful signings, Trouba & Morrissey. There's no more dilly dallying with the Trouba contract. He needs to be locked up. Sign him to a comparable contact, get him on 6 years and be done with it. Hampus Lindholm's $5.2 million is relevant. Jets get Trouba in his prime and Jacob gets to hit free agency at 30. Win win. Morrissey signs a bridge & we shave another off $3.5 million off your quote.
Then there's Connor Hellebuyck. He seems like the real deal, but $5.5AAV? If that contract is designed to fluctuate that's a hell of an average number. I'd suggest totally unrealistic. There isn't a goalie in the league under 28 that makes more than $4.5 million. Bucky currently looking to be the best in his age class. Gibson($2.3), Mrazek ($4.0), Murray ($3.75), & Vasilevskiy ($3.5) are his comparables. Promote him to the head of his class at $4.25 million & we're still saving in the neighbourhood of $1.25 million.
I have no issues with the rest of the salaries listed for defensive pairings. You're original post is not far off from my own reasonings, but the point here has been very small changes when signing the 9 RFA's who played significant roles this season (& a 10th counting Petan) amount to a tidy sum of cap space. With all this happening at once, Chevy certainly has a plan in place.
Anyways a total in the realm of $6.6 million was shaved off, certainly enough to sign Stastny. Will all this come to fruition? Perhaps not, but...
With 10 RFA's to sign, all of which will be waiver eligible, and an existing roster of 14 players already under contract, there's at least one deal occurring this summer. If Roslovic is making this team that displaces another player.
That's two deals with who knows what else in the mix. Two RFA's off a Stanley Cup winner & half of Mason's contract in return for picks this year? Who knows? The point is it's possible even more cap space can be created. Chevy has the chips to make this happen.
What I do know is we are the furthest thing from "cap hell" at some have said. We are not even in "cap trouble." Chevy has this entire process well thought out.
Looking forward to further playoff success & confident in strong seasons for years to come!