Post-Game Talk: Jets 2 - Canes 1

[Inanna]

I'd love that

First, people would understand how hard it is to ref hockey. These are the best refs in the world and they miss tons of calls

Do they really miss them or do they decide not to call them?

Statistical evidence shows that referees will usually call a penalty against the team which did not receive the previous penalty. It's also proven statistically that the amount of time left in the game and score strongly influences whether a penalty will be called or ignored. It's not that the refs don't see the penalties, it's that their bias prevents them from calling it.

The evidence was compiled for a master's thesis several years ago. Refs are proven to be biased.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Also I think the Schmidt bashing has gone a bit too far and we probably need to cool on that a bit. He is clearly better than Stanley and it is not clear Chisolm is better than him either, lets give him a few more games to see. It is quite possible that everyone other than Heinola might be a downgrade on Schmidt. I get people are not fans of his salary but the Jets are paying him anyways and cap savings from waiving him are minimal, if that's the case then may as well use the better defender eve if he is overpaid for his role.

… I don’t know about that. As far as Chisholm is concerned, he needs some reps in the show. Samberg was bad until Stanley went down and 54 had a chance to find his niche; Stanley has plateaued as a seventh defenseman; Heinola was given a push but has yet to take advantage of it. Chisholm deserves some honest looks, for the team’s benefit.

As far as Schmidt is concerned, he’s a glue guy who’s a positive influence on the young guys… but he is definitely on the wrong side of his career. He was never physically strong to begin with, but now he’s consistently pushed around and he doesn’t have the speed to compensate. In fact, his main asset of the smart, accurate pass and offensive acumen is also gone.

 

[Jet]

@None since my RDR playthrough has been on hiatus for a few months, I'm thinking about doing some GTA playthroughs over the next year to get warmed up for GTA 6. III, Vice City, San Andreas, IV and V.

As well, I think Brossoit must be excited for GTA 6 too as he put together a Hellebuyckian performance last night. My guess is he figured he was close to being waived and then released, and without a contract he could be hard-pressed to afford the new game in a couple of years. There. Now this post is on topic.

I was definitely thinking of doing the same thing after seeing the gta6 trailer. Plus csII is kind of frustrating to play right now

 

[10Ducky10]

Stanley has plateaued as a seventh defenseman; Heinola was given a push but has yet to take advantage of it. Chisholm deserves some honest looks, for the team’s benefit.

As far as Schmidt is concerned, he’s a glue guy who’s a positive influence on the young guys… but he is definitely on the wrong side of his career. He was never physically strong to begin with, but now he’s consistently pushed around and he doesn’t have the speed to compensate. In fact, his main asset of the smart, accurate pass and offensive acumen is also gone.

That plateau is somewhere in Death Valley.

 

[surixon]

Seems like Bones has been happy with Chisholm's play. Wouldn't be surprised if he's back in on Thursday.

 

[LowLefty]

Seems like Bones has been haply with Chisholm's play. Wouldn't be surprised if he's back in on Thursday.

He did OK considering the Canes are not an easy team to defend.
The plot thickens for that last spot . . .

 

[Buffdog]

Do they really miss them or do they decide not to call them?

Statistical evidence shows that referees will usually call a penalty against the team which did not receive the previous penalty. It's also proven statistically that the amount of time left in the game and score strongly influences whether a penalty will be called or ignored. It's not that the refs don't see the penalties, it's that their bias prevents them from calling it.

The evidence was compiled for a master's thesis several years ago. Refs are proven to be biased.

Of course refs are biased. So are you. So are all humans

For anyone who hasn't reffed a hockey game, I suggest you try it sometime. As someone who has officiated from novice hockey up to beer league, I can tell.you that there isn't one game where I thought "wow, that was easy"

The reality is that hockey refs are taught "game management" at the upper levels of certification. As the instructior of my level 3 clinic explained it... "reffing a hockey game is like holding a bird. Do it too tightly and you kill it. Do it too loosely, and it gets away from you"

What he meant by this is that ypu CAN'T call every single thing that fits the definition of an infraction. It would mean a constant parade to the penalty box for both teams. Instead, you need a threshold... for example... if it causes a loss of possession of the puck, it's an automatic call. If someone's stuck gets in a player's hands, it's automatic, etc

From there, the most important thing is consistency (something that you may be alluding to). Nothing drives coaches and players crazier than when something that is a call in the first period isn't one in the third. That said, I think lots of refs (for better or worse) put away their whistles late in a game because they don't want a calldo determine the outcome of a game. They justify non-calls at that juncture by having it go both ways. As in "yeah, that was a slash in the first but I'm not calling it now... but I'm not gonna call it on the other team either so it's all good". In fact, my junior hockey coach referred to the last 2 minutes in games we were up as "tackle time" because anything short of assault wasn't getting called. And even that wasn't sometimes lol

So sure, some nerd did a thesis on hockey officiating. Great. They probably don't understand the feel and flow of the game, as well as unwritten rules and codes that both players and refs use to navigate them. Most casual fans don't either, so the frustration is understandable

 

[snowkiddin]

I was definitely thinking of doing the same thing after seeing the gta6 trailer. Plus csII is kind of frustrating to play right now

Good to hear, Jet. Now if Helle and Brossoit both go down we have you for goalie depth to provide Hellebuyckian efforts. That’s what we like to see.

 

[Inanna]

So sure, some nerd did a thesis on hockey officiating. Great. They probably don't understand the feel and flow of the game, as well as unwritten rules and codes that both players and refs use to navigate them. Most casual fans don't either, so the frustration is understandable

Your post was interesting. Thanks for sharing your perspective.

Out of curiosity, I chased down the memory and found the paper. Two nerds, actually. And they didn't look at any feel or flow or rules and codes. They simply processed a mountain of stats. If anyone cares, here's the abstract:



Reversal of fortune: a statistical analysis of penalty calls in the National Hockey League

Jason Abrevaya & Robert McCulloch

January 2014

Abstract: This paper analyzes a unique data set consisting of all penalty calls in the National Hockey League between the 1995–6 and 2001–2 seasons. The primary finding is the prevalence of “reverse calls”: if previous penalties have been on one team, then the next penalty is more likely to be on the other. This pattern is consistent with a simple behavioral rationale based on the fundamental difficulty of refereeing a National Hockey League game. Statistical modeling reveals that the identity of the next team to be penalized also depends on a variety of other factors, including the score, the time in the game, the time since last penalty, which team is at home, and whether one or two referees are calling the game. There is also evidence of differences among referees in their tendency to reverse calls.

 

[Buffdog]

Your post was interesting. Thanks for sharing your perspective.

Out of curiosity, I chased down the memory and found the paper. Two nerds, actually. And they didn't look at any feel or flow or rules and codes. They simply processed a mountain of stats. If anyone cares, here's the abstract:



Reversal of fortune: a statistical analysis of penalty calls in the National Hockey League

Jason Abrevaya & Robert McCulloch

January 2014

Abstract: This paper analyzes a unique data set consisting of all penalty calls in the National Hockey League between the 1995–6 and 2001–2 seasons. The primary finding is the prevalence of “reverse calls”: if previous penalties have been on one team, then the next penalty is more likely to be on the other. This pattern is consistent with a simple behavioral rationale based on the fundamental difficulty of refereeing a National Hockey League game. Statistical modeling reveals that the identity of the next team to be penalized also depends on a variety of other factors, including the score, the time in the game, the time since last penalty, which team is at home, and whether one or two referees are calling the game. There is also evidence of differences among referees in their tendency to reverse calls.

Wow, thanks for posting that. They did a good job of explaining how the feel, flow and unwritten codes and rules play themselves out. Interstingly, they also discuss some of the points I made in my non-nerdy post about the difficulties of officiating

 

[Snowboy]

It was 100% a penalty. Demelo poked his stick into his feet and he stepped on it. That's textbook.

The penalty i refer to happened with about 7:58 left in the game was cross checking by stanley, not tripping, and was a slight tap to the ribs where the cane fell down like he was shot and staid down to draw the penalty, happens all the time on front of the net. looked very weak to me.

 

[Jet]

The penalty i refer to happened with about 7:58 left in the game was cross checking by stanley, not tripping, and was a slight tap to the ribs where the cane fell down like he was shot and staid down to draw the penalty, happens all the time on front of the net. looked very weak to me.

Ah, I apologize

 

[Snowboy]

Ah, I apologize

so do I...... that penalty occurred in the second period, not toward the end of the game when the jets were up 2 to 0.

 

[Stumbledore]

Ah, I apologize

Apologizing? In here? Wow! Mirabitur numquam desinet!

 

[Snowboy]

Apologizing? In here? Wow! Mirabitur numquam desinet!

We do not exhibit Trump like behaviour

 

[Inanna]

We do not exhibit Trump like behaviour

Thank God!

 

[SimpleSimon]

I'd love that

First, people would understand how hard it is to ref hockey. These are the best refs in the world and they miss tons of calls

Second, fanbases would see that once the games are broken down objectively, refs miss roughly the same number of calls on both teams. For example, take the poster in here that said that the trip on wasn't a penalty on us. Now, imagine the exact same play buy against us... he'd be hollering for a call

Our biases make it hard. There's a reason both fanbases can (and usually do) say "the reffing was against us tonight" after a game

I got into it with a parent from the other team the other day when I was watching my daughter. The ref did a bad job and lost control of the game... but missed calls on both teams. He, of course, only bitched about the calls that didn't go their way. So I told him to shut the f*** up... went over pretty well lol

Teams that are having a bad game and can’t keep up to their opponents tend to hook and hold a lot more.