^Exhibit A as to why counting stats can be misleading
Yeah a 3rd round pick for a guy who averages 16 goals per 82 games is an "overpayment"
Since 2011 McGinn has averaged 20 goals per 82 games. Definite 4th line scrub
I'm glad McGinn and Weber went to contenders. I'd love McGinn back for a decent price, but I really doubt he's going to sign a bargain contract.
Go win a cup, and get paid McGinn!
I'm not even close to being a McGinn fanboy but some of the remarks about him are just patently false. Is he a great top 6 forward? No. Would I give him $4+ mil a season? No. Would I give him $3 or 3.5 mil to play in my top 9? Damn straight. He's a quality third liner who will chip in 15 goals a season and throw the body around. He is well worth $3 or $3.5 mil even over 4-5 years.
Which is why Foligno needs to be extended. Perfect fit.DB doesn't use the 3rd line for secondary scoring, its used for defensive shutdown and possession. McGinn played in the top 6 and would have done so in the future. 3.5M/5y for a fundamentally flawed top-6er is not acceptable.
Except when the player is one of the ones you like to pimp out, then the stats you throw out should he taken as the Gospel of Jame
So let's talk about this scrub McGinn.
Every year aside from his rookie season he has finished with a positive TA/GA ratio. His +3 ratio this season is 5th on the team.
His possession #s aren't too bad for such a bad player.
His corsi is 7th among forwards almost identical to elite defensive forward Johan Larsson.
He was also 4th on the team in hits.
He was one of only two forwards the Sabres have/had that could score some goals and throw their body around.
And for being such a bottom 6 player, his career gpg and his gpg from 2011-present is actually within .03 of Ryan O'Reilly in both time periods
And the best part of McGinns production was that he did all that getting 14 minutes a game. Yes he was top 5 in goals and top 4 in hits and he did it receiving the 9th most minutes among forwards. The only regulars who get/got less atoi per game were Moulson, Legwand, Deslauriers and Foligno. So the narrative that McGinns numbers were inflated due to receiving tons of PP and ES time with RoR/Eichel is patently false.
He was closer to Moulson and Gionta in PP time then he was to RoR. He actually was 5th in PPTOI/G among forwards (6th if you count Ennis). In fact, his ice time this season was the lowest he got per game since 11-12. And he also was tied for the team lead in GWG.
Oh and he also had the 5th lowest OZS% among forwards. Yes, Jamie McGinn with his 14 minutes a game, one of the lowest offensive zone start times and the 5th highest pp ice time among forwards was clearly put in the easiest situation to succeed. Easily replaceable and will not be missed whatsoever. We can easily call up ANY forward from Rochester and get probably better production from them then we ever got from McGinn.
So yes, McGinns production for less then $3 million cap hit and lower end 3rd line minutes was pretty damn productive.
Not many players are outperforming that production at the same (or a lesser) cost.
To think that his production is going to be easily replaced by a Justin Bailey or by a Johan Larsson receiving increased ice time and responsibilities is laughable.
I am not angry he was dealt for a pick. He had to be moved or else it was a waste of our most valuable trade commodity for the season. But to see how many people acting like we got a huge steal or that Anaheim got ripped off is ridiculous.
And yes I know these stats are meaningless because it's about a player you don't like but if it was defending a Larsson or one of your other favorites it would be lauded.
What is funny though is speaking about your favorites, Sam Reinhart is one of them (as he should be for every Sabre fan. He is our third most valuable forward) but if it was up to you, we wouldn't even have Reinhart. I seem to remember you advocating hard about trading #2 at the draft for Sean Couturier. And also Tyler Myers for Jordan Staal. I wonder where the Sabres would be with Sean Couturier over Sam Reinhart and Jordan Staal over Evander Kane/Zach Bogosian. hmmm, we would obviously be better off going down your route
No way in hell would I trade Ennis AND Grigorenko for RoR.
Yeah and Vanek is worth much more then RoR. RoR cant hold Vaneks jock.We get it you rather would point to your Corsi numbers then goals. Your the guy who would pick a 20 goal scorer over a 30 goal scorer because the 20 goal scorer scored more goals against "better" competition
I prefer goals , points, hits. Corsi numbers don't mean ****.Last time I checked teams won games by putting the puck in the net not by who has the better QoC. go post your hockey sabremetrics like it means anything. You like to point out that I mention scoring numbers yet you are the one who always brings up the sabremetrics like those mean more then stats the NHL actually bothers to keep .
Ennis>Couturier
Well, sort of. Coherent arguments should be taken seriously. Doesn't mean everyone has to agree. That's the fun of it. But silly counting stats arguments, are generally... not taken seriously.
oh god, i feel a barage of nhl.com research coming...
No one should give 2 poops about turnover stats for McGinn... (you can't turn the puck over when it's never on your stick (because besides going to the net, you have no idea where to be).
This is where knowing even a little bit about hockey would come in handy
Wow... he has almost the same Corsi as our checking line center while playing 75% of his ES Ice time with either Oreilly or Eichel.
how many of those hits took him out of position and led to a quality corsi event against? Would you even notice when that happened?
He's one of the lowest IQ players on the team...
Again, highlighting you little you get it.... McGinn is NOT a bottom 6 player. He's a ****** top 6 player. He can't play in the bottom 6 because he's too much of a drag on his linemates. He's only useful for one thing. And that requires skilled players around him.
17 ES points. 7 while on the ROR line, 7 while on the Eichel line. See, again, you're generic stat references loses context. 9th most minutes among forwards? Why should we care about an average TOI number? He spent some games getting 8 minutes of 4th line time. The reality, is that he spent the majority of his time getting the best possible minutes for offense, on the top 2 lines. There is no narrative that McGinn's numbers were inflated due to receiving tons of minutes. There IS a CORRECT narrative that he produced his numbers with our 2 best players.
He was tied for the team lead in GWG!!!! You're just throwing darts at this point.
straw man
Yes, his goals to dollar ratio was fabulous. Too bad he's bad at hockey.
Yea, we should've re-signed Drew Stafford
straw man
straw man
I would never do a run down of NHL.com stats and think it makes me look like i know what i am talking about.
The last time you embarrassed yourself trying to make a coherent argument... you came back to this rewritten history argument. I'll reference the previous response:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=105279321&postcount=939
(it's awesome because part of that conversation was you advocating Franson on a 4-5 year deal for 4.5-5.0 per.... because... points)
But if you'd like another trip down your own memory lane:
(...punches and counterpunches...)
But if you'd like another trip down your own memory lane:
I picture Jame awakening some mornings, utterly exhausted from the day job and chasing his two toddlers, shuffling to the bathroom, and taped to the mirror is a tattered copy of the Lord's prayer, and this post above. 30 seconds later, after reading each, he now has the will to press on and fight another day.Originally Posted by La Cosa Nostra View Post
Yeah and Vanek is worth much more then RoR. RoR cant hold Vaneks jock.We get it you rather would point to your Corsi numbers then goals. Your the guy who would pick a 20 goal scorer over a 30 goal scorer because the 20 goal scorer scored more goals against "better" competition
I prefer goals , points, hits. Corsi numbers don't mean ****.Last time I checked teams won games by putting the puck in the net not by who has the better QoC. go post your hockey sabremetrics like it means anything. You like to point out that I mention scoring numbers yet you are the one who always brings up the sabremetrics like those mean more then stats the NHL actually bothers to keep .
Ennis>Couturier
Quote:
I picture Jame awakening some mornings, utterly exhausted from the day job and chasing his two toddlers, shuffling to the bathroom, and taped to the mirror is a tattered copy of the Lord's prayer, and this post above. 30 seconds later, after reading each, he now has the will to press on and fight another day.
Well, one can see from my post count that I am really just a lurker. I just wanted to give my take away from all this. Don't get into an argument with Jame.
Well, sort of. Coherent arguments should be taken seriously. Doesn't mean everyone has to agree. That's the fun of it. But silly counting stats arguments, are generally... not taken seriously.
oh god, i feel a barage of nhl.com research coming...
No one should give 2 poops about turnover stats for McGinn... (you can't turn the puck over when it's never on your stick (because besides going to the net, you have no idea where to be).
This is where knowing even a little bit about hockey would come in handy
Wow... he has almost the same Corsi as our checking line center while playing 75% of his ES Ice time with either Oreilly or Eichel.
how many of those hits took him out of position and led to a quality corsi event against? Would you even notice when that happened?
He's one of the lowest IQ players on the team...
Again, highlighting you little you get it.... McGinn is NOT a bottom 6 player. He's a ****** top 6 player. He can't play in the bottom 6 because he's too much of a drag on his linemates. He's only useful for one thing. And that requires skilled players around him.
17 ES points. 7 while on the ROR line, 7 while on the Eichel line. See, again, you're generic stat references loses context. 9th most minutes among forwards? Why should we care about an average TOI number? He spent some games getting 8 minutes of 4th line time. The reality, is that he spent the majority of his time getting the best possible minutes for offense, on the top 2 lines. There is no narrative that McGinn's numbers were inflated due to receiving tons of minutes. There IS a CORRECT narrative that he produced his numbers with our 2 best players.
He was tied for the team lead in GWG!!!! You're just throwing darts at this point.
straw man
Yes, his goals to dollar ratio was fabulous. Too bad he's bad at hockey.
Yea, we should've re-signed Drew Stafford
straw man
straw man
I would never do a run down of NHL.com stats and think it makes me look like i know what i am talking about.
The last time you embarrassed yourself trying to make a coherent argument... you came back to this rewritten history argument. I'll reference the previous response:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=105279321&postcount=939
(it's awesome because part of that conversation was you advocating Franson on a 4-5 year deal for 4.5-5.0 per.... because... points)
But if you'd like another trip down your own memory lane:
Well, one can see from my post count that I am really just a lurker. I just wanted to give my take away from all this. Don't get into an argument with Jame.
Quote:
I picture Jame awakening some mornings, utterly exhausted from the day job and chasing his two toddlers, shuffling to the bathroom, and taped to the mirror is a tattered copy of the Lord's prayer, and this post above. 30 seconds later, after reading each, he now has the will to press on and fight another day.
I'm dying right now
And that post by Jame.. Oy vey
Admit it: The Jame vs. La Cosa Nostra / Layne Staley / Freddie Bisco debates are the only reason you lurk. The rest of our musings are pablum.
I love this exchange the most because it won't change la cosa nostra 1 iota. Not one.
Love the family!
Yea the very vocal minority (you know the three or four posters) here are great. Some may be oddly delusional, but they are all extremely entertaining. It's why HF is a great forum. Even the negative nancy trolls that post in this Sabres forum (you know the two or three) are far and few between, less represented than most places which is impressive.
La cost nostra bringing up an old poor opinion (a dangerous game) was a funny thing to do since he has to have the most unreasonable minority opinions out of anyone here. We all have them though.
I was originally in favor of resigning McGinn earlier in the season, But I have soured on him since once it was clear the guy can't play defense, and can only play in the top 6 to be effective. What team trying to build a winner wants to sign McGinn to a long term deal to be in their top 6. And if he isn't playing in your top 6, then his one main asset isn't being utilized, and his negatives are going to be in full display. He is a tweener. Not good enough of a scorer or generating offense on his own to be in the top 6 (plus too one-dimensional), but not strong enough in other areas of his games to be an ideal bottom 6 forward. He is gonna get paid, let's not be the ones to do it.
Yea the very vocal minority (you know the three or four posters) here are great. Some may be oddly delusional, but they are all extremely entertaining. It's why HF is a great forum. Even the negative nancy trolls that post in this Sabres forum (you know the two or three) are far and few between, less represented than most places which is impressive.
La cost nostra bringing up an old poor opinion (a dangerous game) was a funny thing to do since he has to have the most unreasonable minority opinions out of anyone here. We all have them though.
I was originally in favor of resigning McGinn earlier in the season, But I have soured on him since once it was clear the guy can't play defense, and can only play in the top 6 to be effective. What team trying to build a winner wants to sign McGinn to a long term deal to be in their top 6. And if he isn't playing in your top 6, then his one main asset isn't being utilized, and his negatives are going to be in full display. He is a tweener. Not good enough of a scorer or generating offense on his own to be in the top 6 (plus too one-dimensional), but not strong enough in other areas of his games to be an ideal bottom 6 forward. He is gonna get paid, let's not be the ones to do it.
I'd pay McGinn 3x3
Jame wouldn't even give me 24 hours of "best ****post"