Jacob Trouba

[Hank Chinaski]

Looking at a few of the other threads, there seems to be this perception that our defense corps has regressed from last season. This might be a fair characterization on paper, as the Jets have lost Ron Hainsey (no matter what you think of him, he's at the very least a decent bottom-pairing guy) and have gained Adam Pardy (who is typically described as an ok #7 guy, nothing more).

My question is this - what about Jacob Trouba? Should we completely dismiss his chances of bolstering the top 4? Or does he have a fighting chance of replacing Ron Hainsey's minutes?

I decided to do a little study. For the sample, I took all defensemen drafted since 2006 that made their NHL debut in the second season after being drafted, just like Jacob Trouba will. I then used their TOI/60 ranking (courtesy of behindthenet.ca) on their respective teams in that season to get a rough estimation of their usage. Note that players who made their debut in these circumstances and were subsequently sent back to junior (eg. Alex Pietrangelo) were also omitted, as this won't be Trouba's fate.

"FIRST PAIRING" USAGE
2008 (#12) - Tyler Myers - 82 GP - #1 TOI/60
2011 (#10) - Jonas Brodin - 77* GP - #2 TOI/60

"SECOND PAIRING" USAGE
2006 (#1) - Erik Johnson - 69 GP - #4 TOI/60
2007 (#5) - Karl Alzner - 30 GP - #3 TOI/60
2009 (#14) - Dmitri Kulikov - 72 GP - #3 TOI/60

"THIRD PAIRING" USAGE
2008 (#20) - Michael Del Zotto - 80 GP - #5 TOI/60
2008 (#15) - Erik Karlsson - 60 GP - #5 TOI/60
2009 (#16) - Nick Leddy - 46 GP - #6 TOI/60
2010 (#3) - Erik Gudbrandson - 72 GP - #6 TOI/60
2011 (#9) - Dougie Hamilton - 72* GP - #5 TOI/60

"SHIELDED THIRD PAIRING" USAGE
2007 (#27) - John Carlson - 22 GP - #8 TOI/60
2009 (#6) - Oliver Ekman-Larsson - 48 GP - #8 TOI/60

PRIMARILY IN AHL
2011 (#14) - Jamie Oleksiak
2011 (#16) - Nathan Beaulieu

*GP is pro-rated for an 82 game schedule

I realize this is a pretty small sample size, and doesn't really make a convincing case one way or the other. I just wanted to do the research myself, and see what we could realistically expect from Trouba based on past precedent.

So what do you think? Any chance Trouba could surprise us and be a first-pairing stud like Myers and Brodin were?

Click to read more...

 

[allan5oh]

He only needs to be a #4, he will be fine this year. The bigger question is do we go with clitsome or trouba on the second pairing.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

I think I'm one of the few who sees him as a regular next season. If anyone could surprise for a "first pairing" first year in the NHL this year out of any team, I'm sure it'd be him.

I'm going to say he surprises through pre-season and the first few games of the season and is at least 3rd pairing, maybe taking over a Redmond/Postma spot. I like Redmond and Postma, but Trouba is a whole other beast if he can get it going quickly at this level.

 

[CorgisPer60]

I'm sure that Clitsome can hold his own as a #4 until Trouba kicks him to the bottom pair. I don't think it will take that long for him to do so, either.

 

[Mungman]

Based on the small sample size I've seen of him at the WJC and WC, and the fact he's attending the US selection camp (I didn't see him in college play, but from my understanding he was used very differently there from what he'll see in the NHL) I think he could be an impact player (second pairing) at some point during this season.

He was shaky the first couple games at the WC's this spring, but quickly made the adjustments he needed from college and small ice to the large ice and better caliber players and didn't look out of place by the middle of the round robin. IMO he's going to be one of those special players that can see the ice and adapt his game on the fly.

 

[EpicGingy]

So if he moves into the top-4, which player moves to the left side?

 

[KingBogo]

I think Trouba will be a special player, and special players that are physically mature for their age can make a quick jump. If he can play a solid third pairing that would be a great fit for him as a 19 year old. If he jumps to the 2nd pairing does Bogo than move to the left side?

 

[wpgsilver]

I was on the Trouba bandwagon BEFORE we drafted him.
I think he'll force his way into the top 4 by game 20. I like Hainsey BUT I think Bogo's progression, Clitsomes maturation and Troubas play will lead to an improved Dcorp.
Book mark this post 50-50 shot I look like a fool in 6 months.

 

[Jeti]

There's no way he cracks the top-pairing without injuries to Buff, Enstrom and/or Bogo. Even for the second pairing, unless someone's playing their off-side, he'd need to beat out one of Buff or Bogo, neither of which is remotely likely. Get your expectations in check: the Jets top-2 RHD are very established.

If he plays as a solid bottom-pairing guy, maybe with some occasional special teams play, that's a tremendous rookie season for a defenseman his age with the players that are in front of him in the depth chart.

Frankly, I'd love to see him play with Stuart all year. Stuart may have trouble moving the puck (an understatement) but Bogo sure seemed to feed off his mean streak and that's an aspect of Trouba's game they should nurture.

 

[Sweech]

So if he moves into the top-4, which player moves to the left side?

Bogosian, as he's done it before. Although only for brief moments, but he never looked bad doing so.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Bogosian, as he's done it before. Although only for brief moments, but he never looked bad doing so.

There was a quote from Bogo on AIH when they had the conference call after the contract signed. Bogo said that he would play either side if they need him to. I took that as a question about a possible pairing with Trouba.

 

[KingBogo]

There's no way he cracks the top-pairing without injuries to Buff, Enstrom and/or Bogo. Even for the second pairing, unless someone's playing their off-side, he'd need to beat out one of Buff or Bogo, neither of which is remotely likely. Get your expectations in check: the Jets top-2 RHD are very established.

If he plays as a solid bottom-pairing guy, maybe with some occasional special teams play, that's a tremendous rookie season for a defenseman his age with the players that are in front of him in the depth chart.

Frankly, I'd love to see him play with Stuart all year. Stuart may have trouble moving the puck (an understatement) but Bogo sure seemed to feed off his mean streak and that's an aspect of Trouba's game they should nurture.

I agree. If Trouba becomes the everyday 3rd pairing guy that continues to progress during the season this is all we can ask for a 19 year old kid behind Buff, Toby & Bogo.

 

[Hawker14]

I wouldn't mind seeing him getting 25+ minutes per game, and getting experience playing in all situations, in St. John's.

Guess I'm a "Why hurry ?" type.

 

[CorgisPer60]

I wouldn't mind seeing him getting 25+ minutes per game, and getting experience playing in all situations, in St. John's.

Guess I'm a "Why hurry ?" type.

If he's ready and able to make a positive impact and outplays the 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 D positions, why not with the big club?

 

[Hawker14]

If he's ready and able to make a positive impact and outplays the 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 D positions, why not with the big club?

If he earns a regular spot getting top four minutes, and is progressing as a player, by all means he should be with the Jets.

But if he's just on the 3rd pairing getting 10-15 minutes/night, seeing limited to no PP/PK time, and not playing in crucial situations, I'd rather see him in the A.

His development should be the most important issue imo, thinking long-term for the Jets.

 

[viper0220]

If he's ready and able to make a positive impact and outplays the 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 D positions, why not with the big club?

This. If he can outplay our 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 d, then he should be with the big club.

 

[garret9]

With Buff on the roster, Trouba should be getting PK if he's playing 3rd pair, so he would be getting some non ES TOI.

Doubt he'd get PP time over Byfuglien, Enstrom and Bogosian...but the 4th spot will be the interesting one...

 

[viper0220]

If he earns a regular spot getting top four minutes, and is progressing as a player, by all means he should be with the Jets.

But if he's just on the 3rd pairing getting 10-15 minutes/night, seeing limited to no PP/PK time, and not playing in crucial situations, I'd rather see him in the A.

His development should be the most important issue imo, thinking long-term for the Jets.

I think the Jets management will make the right decision, whatever that correct decision is.

 

[viper0220]

With Buff on the roster, Trouba should be getting PK if he's playing 3rd pair, so he would be getting some non ES TOI.

Doubt he'd get PP time over Byfuglien, Enstrom and Bogosian...but the 4th spot will be the interesting one...

Hopefully they don't use Jokinen as the 4th.

 

[KingBogo]

If he earns a regular spot getting top four minutes, and is progressing as a player, by all means he should be with the Jets.

But if he's just on the 3rd pairing getting 10-15 minutes/night, seeing limited to no PP/PK time, and not playing in crucial situations, I'd rather see him in the A.

His development should be the most important issue imo, thinking long-term for the Jets.

I don't know what the right answer is playing 10-15 mins in the NHL or 20-25 mins in the A, and it probably varies for each player. But if a player can hold his own in the NHL I believe that's where he should be. Trouba seems like a player who excels under pressure. I love to see him go to battle with the big boys and become part of the core sooner than later.

 

[Edgar Halliwax]

Trouba will be a big part of the team this year and will score between 10-15 goals. Laugh if you want too - but bookmark this thread at the same time.

 

[Hammer Slammer]

Trouba will be a big part of the team this year and will score between 10-15 goals. Laugh if you want too - but bookmark this thread at the same time.

He has a bomb of a shot already. If he doesn't score, it's generally nice and low so there's a rebound. Seems to get a lot of assists that way and that's awesome. When I would check the Michigan highlights when he had points, his assists were generally off rebounds. It's beautiful.

I agree with you!

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Trouba will be a big part of the team this year and will score between 10-15 goals. Laugh if you want too - but bookmark this thread at the same time.

I'm not laughing.

I have to admit, I'm having a really hard time keeping my expectations in check with Trouba. Part of the reason I made this thread was that most of the expectations for Trouba next season seemed...I don't know, a bit bearish?

I'm going do you one better on that prediction, jcc. I predict Trouba will be nominated for the Calder, narrowly edged out of winning it by a forward (probably MacKinnon). Bookmark it.

 

[Stej]

I agree with the thought that Trouba could make significant contributions this year.

 

[truck]

Anything is possible.

No clue where he will slot in.