Player Discussion Jack Eichel - Switching from #15 to #9

Status
Not open for further replies.

Dingo44

We already won the trade
Sponsor
Jul 21, 2015
10,465
12,055
Greensboro, NC
ESPN has Eichel with Matthews below just Crosby and McDavid in fantasy and projects Jack to be the #1 player in 2021-22. I mean, that's kind of ludicrous, but also nice to hear.

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/hockey/...sy-hockey-top-250-dynasty-league-rankings-nhl

While Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews won't finish every season for the next five years atop the fantasy rankings or the ESPN Player Rater (that's just not the reality of how superstardom works), you'd be hard-pressed to find someone to argue a different player to select for a long-term keeper league. Although, just for the record, I have Jack Eichel as No. 1 in 2021-22.
 

Gabrielor

"Win with us or watch us win." - Rasmus Dahlin
Jun 28, 2011
13,602
14,145
Buffalo, NY
That article is pretty much why I'm not worried right now.

Based on all the comments from both sides, it's fair to extrapolate that both want 8 years, and the money is likely the difference. Jack probably thinks he can earn more if he waits, and he's probably right.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
56,281
35,499
Rochester, NY

Beyond that, there’s also the matter of comparable contracts. Right now, most would consider something in the range of the Draisaitl contract, an eight-year, $68-million deal that carries an $8.5 million cap hit, to be a close comparable for what Eichel is worth. That’s especially true when it appears it’s being used as a comparable for David Pastrnak, who is likewise looking to land an extension before the season begins. If Pastrnak signs for similar money, it establishes the $8 million-plus range as the going rate for a young player of that point-per-game calibre. But what then if Eichel surpasses both Draisaitl and Pastrnak in terms of production?

Should Eichel manage to do so, he could entirely change the equation for himself. No longer would he be considered to be on the same plane as Draisaitl and Pastrnak, but instead a step above. And with that, he could command an even greater salary. No one is about to suggest the Sabres are going to throw McDavid money — $12.5 million per season — at Eichel, but it’s not far-fetched to believe Eichel could drive his value up beyond $9 million with another career-best, top-producer season. He’s only going to get better as he grows as a player and a full season with a better team around him stands to increase his production to the point he’s commanding an even greater salary.

That’s not to say there isn’t a counterpoint to all of this in which Eichel takes a step back and hits a slump in his third NHL season after avoiding one in his sophomore campaign. That could happen, too. And in this scenario, with Eichel prepared to bet on himself if that’s what it comes down to, anything that allows for a better value contract would be the gamble the Sabres would have to be willing to take. At this point, though, it would seem ill-advised, because Eichel seems ready to enter the league’s upper echelon at any moment, and not locking him up now could mean he’s set for even bigger money come the conclusion — or even the middle — of the coming campaign.

That sums it up pretty well in that his performance to date puts him in the class of Draisaitl and Pastrnak and he could bump himself up with a big year in 2017-18.

If I had a guess, Botterill is offering 8 years in the $8 to 9M per range and Eichel is going to bet on himself and play out the season in hopes of earning a $10M+ per deal after this season.
 

ZZamboni

Puttin' on the Foil
Sep 25, 2010
15,399
1,449
Buffalo, NY
He would have surpassed 31 goals last year if he would have played a full season.

Easy over.

I look at it this way ...

Since when do the majority of players play a full 82 game season? I think that's a minority.

Most players are injured or "sit out" 5-8 games a season. Some, much more.

I think Jack will be no different... I think he'll play around 75 full games. And 4 he'll play partial games (injury occurs in those 4). And 3 he'll be out of the lineup with injury.

That said ... 31 seems about right. Maybe up to 34. With roughly 38-45 assists.
 

pigpen65

Registered User
Jul 25, 2011
3,949
935
Last year he was paced for 32.3 goals, so this prediction is either assuming he gets injured again or that he regresses. I definitey don't see any reason why he would regress and won't assume he's going to miss any games so I say 40.
 

Zip15

Registered User
Jun 3, 2009
28,121
5,401
Bodymore
The projections usually rely on many simulations. Within those simulations are seasons in which Eichel plays less than a full season. I remember a few years ago, Hockey Prospectus didn't have any Sabres projected to play more than 77 games.

I think he scores in that 30-35 range.
 

cramdizzl

cram it
Jan 5, 2012
2,452
248
Western NY
I'd say he's closer to a 40/40 player than a 30/50 player. Strikes me as someone who really understands when to shoot and when to pass, and should lean towards shoot-first with his lethal shot.
 

OkimLom

Registered User
May 3, 2010
15,292
6,765
I'd say he's closer to a 40/40 player than a 30/50 player. Strikes me as someone who really understands when to shoot and when to pass, and should lean towards shoot-first with his lethal shot.

Disagree. I think he passes too much, sometimes as a fault. He has one of, if not the best shots on the team. He's one of the few guys on the team that can beat a goalie ANYWHERE on the ice. But watching him play, he's consistently looking for the perfect pass, which he is capable of completing.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
56,281
35,499
Rochester, NY
https://sports.yahoo.com/jack-eichel-gets-promoting-nhl-players-192650923.html

Jack Eichel gets it about promoting NHL players

From Alex Prewitt of Sports Illustrated, here’s Eichel:

“Hockey’s such a team game. Everyone’s so conservative that you don’t see players or people becoming he type of icons that you see in basketball or football or even baseball, where people’s personalities are shown more and they’re able to market themselves and their personality away from the sport they play. I think our game’s so conservative – and rightfully so – that everyone’s so worried about what the next guy’s going to think instead of being themselves and letting their personalities show.â€
Now, the “team game†aspect of the NHL does restrict some star power. It’s not baseball or the NBA, where individual efforts are obvious and celebrated. But the rest of Eichel’s take is valid, which he expanded on:

“I think it’s on the players, but the problem with it is that everyone is so conservative. Hockey players, we’re conservative people. We’re worries about what the next guy is going to think and obviously you don’t want to do anything to make yourself look bad in the locker room, to your coaches, to your general manager. With that being said, I think guys take the high road and hide themselves a little bit better. There are some guys who are doing it. I think P.K. Subban does a good job of self-marketing himself. People know him, they see his pesonality more than just the type of guy he is on the ice.â€
 

Sansbacon

Registered User
Sep 26, 2006
4,047
1,724
Westchester, NY
I look at it this way ...

Since when do the majority of players play a full 82 game season? I think that's a minority.

Most players are injured or "sit out" 5-8 games a season. Some, much more.


I think Jack will be no different... I think he'll play around 75 full games. And 4 he'll play partial games (injury occurs in those 4). And 3 he'll be out of the lineup with injury.

That said ... 31 seems about right. Maybe up to 34. With roughly 38-45 assists.
Okay but do you think analysts factor in "potential" injuries when making these predictions?

"I think Jack is going to miss 6 games due to a bad haircut. He'll likely sustain a back injury from carry his line, so I'll assume that's another 4 or 5 games. With these magic 8 ball predictions, I'll go ahead and say he pots 31 goals this season."

No, they base these predictions off the assumption that the player will lace them up for all 82 games.

31 goals in 82 games.

I'm taking the over *assuming* he plays a full, or at least as close to a full season as possible.

Edit-
The projections usually rely on many simulations. Within those simulations are seasons in which Eichel plays less than a full season. I remember a few years ago, Hockey Prospectus didn't have any Sabres projected to play more than 77 games.

I think he scores in that 30-35 range.
If true then I retract some of my statement, but then what is the point in making these predictions? There are so many variables that could change the final outcome that it makes me wonder why you'd even bother trying to make a prediction about a player's stat line for the year.

Much easier to assume *if healthy* when looking at these numbers, imo.
 
Last edited:

Jame

Registered User
Sep 4, 2002
52,673
9,037
Florida
Low thirties sounds right. Could be under, but not by much.

The projections usually rely on many simulations. Within those simulations are seasons in which Eichel plays less than a full season. I remember a few years ago, Hockey Prospectus didn't have any Sabres projected to play more than 77 games.

I think he scores in that 30-35 range.

I'd be disappointed in that range. I mean, if the rest of his game showed significant improvement I'd be ok with it... but honestly, Jack should score 40+. If all he does is keep the Bylsma goal scoring pace... I'll be disappointed. He's supposed to improve significantly in year 3, and unshackled from Bylsma at ES... 30-35 is marginal improvement.

Everyone wants to "pay him", and then projects numbers that do not equate with that pay at all...
 

cramdizzl

cram it
Jan 5, 2012
2,452
248
Western NY
Disagree. I think he passes too much, sometimes as a fault. He has one of, if not the best shots on the team. He's one of the few guys on the team that can beat a goalie ANYWHERE on the ice. But watching him play, he's consistently looking for the perfect pass, which he is capable of completing.

He led the league in shots per game and beat goalies from all over the place. How much more should he shoot? He can't choose correctly 100% of the time
 

Aladyyn

they praying for the death of a rockstar
Apr 6, 2015
18,127
7,277
Czech Republic
It's not that he should shoot *more*, just needs better shot selection. But that will come with time.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

  • Finland vs Norway
    Finland vs Norway
    Event closes
    • Updated:
  • Slovakia vs USA
    Slovakia vs USA
    Wagers: 2
    Staked: $150.00
    Event closes
    • Updated:
  • Lecce vs Udinese
    Lecce vs Udinese
    Wagers: 1
    Staked: $50.00
    Event closes
    • Updated:
  • Czechia vs Switzerland
    Czechia vs Switzerland
    Wagers: 2
    Staked: $675.00
    Event closes
    • Updated:
  • Sweden vs Germany
    Sweden vs Germany
    Event closes
    • Updated:

Ad

Ad