Player Discussion Jack Eichel - Switching from #15 to #9

[haseoke39]

Nailed what? Nitpicking over a couple million? The scale for franchise players is already $4m wide with an $8m floor. Arguing about $10m being too much because they'd be "paying for different player" is a waste of breath. There's no list of qualifications or expectations that declares a players value- he's worth what the market has determined for his situation. McDavid set the high end, Johansen set the floor, and Eichel benefits from the rising tide.

Well, if Johansen were getting $12M, which is nicely in the "who cares" range for you, I'm sure the rest of us would be saying "that's a bad deal."

 

[sabrebuild]

I know some are freaked out about not just signing a blank check, but that extra few million is enormously important. How do you think Pitt would look if Crosby was getting 12 a year.

You don't think Chicago wishes they had their two locked up at 9 each instead of 10.5

He is not going anywhere. Be smart, not desperate.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

He's a $10M hockey player, pay him what he's worth, you don't dick around with your franchise player.

 

[joshjull]

Eichel's production probabilistically goes down, is that better?

What I really said: His PP points overall are not going up substantially more than you would expect from just playing more games, and his PPP/gm may even go down. I'm not saying he's getting 23 PPP or less guaranteed.

I took issue with one part of your previous post and wasn't addressing the totality of it. Where you were trying to argue that Eichel's PP production peaked based on our PP conversion rate being #1 in the NHL. An individual player's production rate is impacted by a variety of things. Some of them being: health, effectiveness of PP unit, how the player is used on the PP, how often the team goes on the PP, etc.

Brent Burns as a Shark

11-12 --> 16 PPpts (Sharks 1st in NHL on PP conversion)
12-13 --> 3pts (9th/lockout shortened season)
13-14 --> 11pts (19th)
14-15 --> 24pts (6th)
15-16 --> 30pts (3rd)
16-17 --> 25pts (25th)

There isn't a direct correlation between and individual players PP production and his team's PP conversion rate. And thats all I was saying.

I'm saying that if posters are projecting him getting to, say, 90 points, the vast majority of the difference is coming from ES.

Where does his even strength points per game rank in the league?

I wasn't talking about or addressing this in my initial post. But I will say if you're going to talk about his ES points per game you need to contextualize it with our team scoring 5on5 (28th in league). Eichel had the best ES points per game on a team that sucked at ES.

 

[brian_griffin]

I took issue with one part of your previous post and wasn't addressing the totality of it. Where you were trying to argue that Eichel's PP production peaked based on our PP conversion rate being #1 in the NHL. An individual player's production rate is impacted by a variety of things. Some of them being: health, effectiveness of PP unit, how the player is used on the PP, how often the team goes on the PP, etc.

Brent Burns as a Shark

11-12 --> 16 PPpts (Sharks 1st in NHL on PP conversion)
12-13 --> 3pts (9th/lockout shortened season)
13-14 --> 11pts (19th)
14-15 --> 24pts (6th)
15-16 --> 30pts (3rd)
16-17 --> 25pts (25th)

There isn't a direct correlation between and individual players PP production and his team's PP conversion rate.






I wasn't talking about or addressing this in my initial post. But I will say its a bit disingenuous to talk about his ES points per game and not mention how bad we were as a team scoring 5on5 (28th in league). Eichel had the best ES points per game on a team that sucked at ES.

Agreed. you can't look at it solely as NHL rank (as Haseoke questioned). Look at the ES pts, or ES ppg, as % of team share. And Reinhart should grade highly as well, IIRC. As the Sabres overall GF and goal differential improves this season,
(and, the PP% of goals should decrease, even if they maintain a relatively high PP ranking overall), I'd expect both the ES pts and ES % of Pts to increase.

(I still don't think that's worth $10M AAV for 8 years as a 20yo buying 2 years UFA, but that's not what you were responding to.)

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[joshjull]

I know, so why ignore it when I'm clearly agreeing with your own argument to say we should look forward? Everybody gets paid based on what they're expected to do going forward. My $6M figure is just the result you'd get if you got what you're accusing me of: nonsense analysis where one only pays Eichel based on a career year of 57 points.

My point is, if I were doing THAT kind of nonsense analysis, as you're saying I am, I'dd be getting a much lower figure than what I'd even like to see here.

But yeah, $8M already ****ing factors in that he's going to improve. $9M factors in that he can ask for more than he's worth because he's got the franchise over the barrel. $10M is just paying for a different player.

If you're continuing to ignore the new reality created by the Draisaitl and McDavid's deals. Then yes you're making nonsense analysis.

It doesn't matter what you feel is the right amount, it doesn't matter if you think those two Oilers are overpaid. None of that changes the new reality on the ground. Knowing what they got and yet still arguing Eichel should get 8mil per, that 9mil per is generous and that 10mil per is a travesty is you in a theoretical bubble detached from reality.

I'm not of the "give him whatever" crowd. But I am of the "this is where the market went" crowd and adjusted my contract expectations accordingly. I've said 8x10 but could live with 11mil. I'd like to see it happen now but get it may not. My stance is more about accepting we will pay a crazy amount to keep him than wanting to actually shell out that big of a cap hit.

 

[cramdizzl]

Well, if Johansen were getting $12M, which is nicely in the "who cares" range for you, I'm sure the rest of us would be saying "that's a bad deal."

The scale right now for franchise players is $8m - $12.5m, and Eichel fits in the middle of that scale. Trying to get him on the low end because he hasn't proven enough is never going to happen. He's looking at guys making $8-10m+ and knows he can outperform them. Would you rather them dicker over his price and have this run into next offseason? Unless you think his price goes down, I don't see a reason to wait. Of course it would be better to get him for less, but where do you draw the line?

$2M savings on a 2018-19 $75M cap with ~half or ~$37M tied up with 7 skaters, with Eichel and Reinhart due, and expecting </= $6M total in goal. Yes, I'd prefer to save the $2M per.

Me too, but I just can't see $8m happening. Can we say $9m is fair given the other contracts recently signed? Would you let that $1m difference break negotiations if Eichel won't move off $10m, and risk his price going up because of his production and/or newly signed contracts?

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[AustonsNostrils]

 

[joshjull]

I know some are freaked out about not just signing a blank check, but that extra few million is enormously important. How do you think Pitt would look if Crosby was getting 12 a year.

You don't think Chicago wishes they had their two locked up at 9 each instead of 10.5

He is not going anywhere. Be smart, not desperate.

I'm not following the logic here.

1) Crosby has nothing to do with this since his deal was the previous CBA.

2) Why do you think waiting is going to save us cap space? You can argue the team and some on here might feel more comfortable with him getting the big money if he has a strong season. But I don't see his contract demands shrinking over the course of the season.

 

[joshjull]

Agreed. you can't look at it solely as NHL rank (as Haseoke questioned). Look at the ES pts, or ES ppg, as % of team share. And Reinhart should grade highly as well, IIRC. As the Sabres overall GF and goal differential improves this season,
(and, the PP% of goals should decrease, even if they maintain a relatively high PP ranking overall), I'd expect both the ES pts and ES % of Pts to increase.

(I still don't think that's worth $10M AAV for 8 years as a 20yo buying 2 years UFA, but that's not what you were responding to.)

Whether its worth it is relative. If you're comparing 8x10 relative to Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, etc. Then the answer is hell no. Is it worth it relative to the new Draisaitl and MCDavid deals? I would say yes.

 

[haseoke39]

Whether its worth it is relative. If you're comparing 8x10 relative to Crosby, Malkin, Toews, Kane, etc. Then the answer is hell no. Is it worth it relative to the new Draisaitl and MCDavid deals? I would say yes.

You really should analyze things based on %age of cap. Otherwise, the market is always, like, 2 deals wide because that's as many comparable players signed that very year. Two deals from one GM isn't a "market," it's a guy.

A lot of players that have proven more than Eichel have signed for ~10-11% of the cap. That's where he fits in. Between 7.7 and 8.5, by the looks of it.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Great, another season of John Wawrow playing insider.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[OkimLom]

This tweet can be taken the wrong way by certain fans. This is how ****storms start for fans, especially on social media.

 

[joshjull]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

This tweet can be taken the wrong way by certain fans. This is how ****storms start for fans, especially on social media.

It shouldn't be if they listen to what Eichel said directly to the media this morning.

 

[sabrebuild]

I'm not following the logic here.

1) Crosby has nothing to do with this since his deal was the previous CBA.

2) Why do you think waiting is going to save us cap space? You can argue the team and some on here might feel more comfortable with him getting the big money if he has a strong season. But I don't see his contract demands shrinking over the course of the season.

I'll go slow.

1. I was not referring to Crosby as a market indicator for Eichel's deal. I was referring to several top players and the problem with overpaying them. Even franchise players can be overpaid and crush your cap.

2. I'm not indicating a wait for a better deal plan. I don't know enough to know how close they are. But if his ask is more than 9-9.5, why not wait? If he puts up a mcdavid season, great, the cap hurts, but he made a giant leap.

But that is the only circumstance that hurts. He puts up a season like last year he only gets around 10. If he does worse so goes his demands.

If we are past a point where he would take a 8 year deal for 8 something, we are past the point of early signing savings. Why pay the same price now that you can pay later.

 

[pigpen65]

Can't imagine what the problem could be, at least from the sabres side. Hopefully the holdup is over money and not term.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

Can't imagine what the problem could be, at least from the sabres side. Hopefully the holdup is over money and not term.

Has to be money with GM JB on the record saying they want to sign him to the maximum term.

 

[Chainshot]

Great, another season of John Wawrow playing insider.

What particular issue do you have with him?

 

[OkimLom]

It shouldn't be if they listen to what Eichel said directly to the media this morning.

Oh, I know, but you're assuming that people look at more than one or two sources. I knew by listening to his(Eichel's) interview and reading other credible sources what was meant.

But in today's media, where everyone retweets everyone else, this might send a confusing message people re-tweet this.

 

[Sabreality]

Can't imagine what the problem could be, at least from the sabres side. Hopefully the holdup is over money and not term.

I see it as Eichel betting on himself, no problem with that. Why take $9m-10 when he could get 10.5-11.5 next summer after he drops 90+