Speculation: Is This The Begining of A Perfect Storm For The Leafs?

[Drew75]

Glass half full verses half empty when defining "best position".

Major holes in the lineup, with NO significant pieces to re-sign pointing to lack of assets above the missing pieces/holes already existing

Is that really "best position", as opposed to teams in the opposite position without holes and players deserving of investing financial resources on as far as team competitiveness and future goes? Perhaps you meant "bleak position" ahead.

I think Nonis is in a very unenviable position personally, as this current roster is heading for a reset button in making, with limited current talent, a roster missing major pieces and 1/2 the roster coming off the books next year with limited internal pieces to fill those gaping holes. Combine that with MLSE expectations for playoffs sooner than later based on their decision of promoting Nonis to right the ship in short order. So Nonis has no honeymoon period either to allow for much wiggle room before success is expected.

Toss more fuel on the fire and Nonis has to sell prized UFA players to join the Leafs a struggling team in midst of a rebuild without a playoff day to its name in a decade, coming out of a major fire sale as you suggest to boot. If UFA signing is the solution the new CBA which just neutered Leafs spending ability even more by lowering the cap and most importantly limiting contract lengths and $$ spent, allowing more teams to pursue UFA players on equal financial terms making the laws of supply and demand increased odds against of success of landing one. With money being equal to UFAs and Cup competitiveness no where in sight in Toronto to lure free agents its going to be a real tough sell for Nonis.

I agree Nonis finds himself heading into the eye of the hurricane as the perfect storm is forming right before his own eyes, but unlike you I don't see him looking forward to it.

Your post actually made me laugh a bit - you are the biggest proponent of "play the kids", "make room for the kids", etc, etc ... and now you are pointing out the flaws of what you've been selling.

I'm not actually talking about tanking, nor long term losing ... I'm talking about marginal improvement, about not going for a guy like Lou who will put you in the playoffs when your team isn't ready for it. Moving Lombardi and Connelly for 2nd / 3rd round picks is not going to drastically impact the Leafs in a negative way. We have a couple of kids ready to replace a guy like MacAurther or Steckle. It's status quo - showing some natural improvement based on player development.

Do we have holes? Sure - no one is saying otherwise. Having guys like Kessel, Gardiner, Reilly, Kulemin (who will rebound), Kadri, Van Reims, Frattin, and Gunnarson does give us a foundation. Add a 10th overall and 20th overall pick from next June, along with 2 or 3 2nd rounders, and the foundation gets stronger. Add a solid prospect or two stolen by helping other teams get under the cap, and we may enter July in a position of promise - a young, exciting team on the rise.

Toronto is still Toronto - the "Vatican of Hockey" as an interesting man once stated. A young team on the rise in the bigest hockey market in the world, along with some financial might just be enough to grab a top free agent or two in the summer.

What I was pointing to is that are not just one, but many factors that appear to be primed in order to launch the Leafs to that next level - IF they play cards right. Will they? Who knows? (besides, of course, the many "self proclaimed" experts on these boards who are convinced nothing will EVER go the Leafs way, regardless who is running the ship). I don't know ... but I do see that the opportunity is there.

 

[DaveT83*]

Burke "Balls"

Nonis "Brains"


Ownership appears to finally understand that bandaid fixes have/will not get this franchise anywhere - and nothing sells better than a winner - nothing would look better on Bell/Rogers resume than to bring a Stanley Cup to the city of Toronto ... talk about the ultimate PR campaign.

They've also already expressed a lot of interest in the potential Star Power that will be available in the Top5 this upcoming draft.

For the first time in nearly decade I feel like this team is headed in the right direction.

1. Shed ALL Dead Weight (Connolly/Lombardi) - Run with Kids
2. Sell at the Deadline
3. Draft High in 2013
4. Trade Kessel for Power Forward + Blue Chip Prospect (preferably in Net)

 

[Cor]

Burke "Balls"

Nonis "Brains"


Ownership appears to finally understand that bandaid fixes have/will not get this franchise anywhere - and nothing sells better than a winner - nothing would look better on Bell/Rogers resume than to bring a Stanley Cup to the city of Toronto ... talk about the ultimate PR campaign.

They've also already expressed a lot of interest in the potential Star Power that will be available in the Top5 this upcoming draft.

For the first time in nearly decade I feel like this team is headed in the right direction.

1. Shed ALL Dead Weight (Connolly/Lombardi) - Run with Kids
2. Sell at the Deadline
3. Draft High in 2013
4. Trade Kessel for Power Forward + Blue Chip Prospect (preferably in Net)

1. Hopefully Lombo and Connolly will be eating a lot of popcorn this year, if we can trade 1, even better
2. Agreed, Mac, Liles, even Lupul if we get a good deal
3. Hopefully, Drouin, Monahan would both look nice, Mackinnon is the goal.
4. Disagree on this. We shouldn't deal Kessel unless he tells management he has no interest in staying. JVR can turn into a good power forward, Lupul is sorta one already.

 

[Giuseppe Sallo]

^^ Rather have Drouin over Monahan, but leafs have no excuses if they suck this season. Get one of those players. Build from top talent.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Burke was the perfect storm and it has passed.

He nullified the Leaf(financial advantage) and had stupid self imposed trade deadlines.The only time he ever used money was to waste it.Wilson extension,Grabo $5.5 million,overpaying for Kessel,signing Komisarek,Connolly,Armstrong etc. and of course paying $7 million for Franson.But not once ever did he put Leaf nation first and use our financial clout to his advantage.His holiday freeze got him a 5th place finish.

Quite frankly, it is time to use that money and lure in star players.If Kessel doesn't want to resign now,launch him and bury one of the worst trades in NHL history.Burke should have seen this coming.He was too reactive and put no forethought into his moves,neither could he assess talent properly.The storm has now passed and the sun is beginning to shine through...

We have earned it,that was one brutal reign.

 

[613Leafer]

If we get a top forward prospect from this draft, especially if it's a centre. I think we can essentially consider the "rebuild" complete and legitimately start trying to build with an actual hope of it leading towards a contender some day.

We need to add a #1 C, it's a huge hole. If it gets patched in the draft, then essentially our D looks set longterm, our top 6 forwards look set longterm, and we'd essentially at that point just be looking for a goalie and upgrades throughout the roster.

We have 6 UFA forwards. I think it's a great time to unload most of them before the deadline, let a few of the kids play (Kadri/Frattin specifically), draft high, and try and add in free agency. Plus all the mid to late round draft picks will certainly add to this draft for us, and could pay off 3-5 years from now.

 

[egd27]

I understand what you're saying but i don't see any team giving us a high quality player as well as a dump just to save a few mil .

Guess it depends on how much they want out of the bad contract. Doubt it's gonna net an established star, but it may be a way to pick up one or two promising younger players.

 

[Epictetus]

Guess it depends on how much they want out of the bad contract. Doubt it's gonna net an established star, but it may be a way to pick up one or two promising younger players.

The Leafs have never done this before, so I don't understand why it is now being thought of as a logical solution to acquiring talent. It's possible, sure, but including it under the heading of 'optimism' without a ratified CBA is asking for dissappointment.

Moreover, the Leafs do not put as much emphasis on picks and prospects, as this is all you will be getting, or else it would be a viable option. Rightfully so, they do not need more fringe 2nd-3rd line prospects or late round picks (Nonis and Burke both have a history of pissing these away). What they do need is high-end talent, something no team is going to give away for "cap relief".

If we get a top forward prospect from this draft, especially if it's a centre. I think we can essentially consider the "rebuild" complete and legitimately start trying to build with an actual hope of it leading towards a contender some day.

We need to add a #1 C, it's a huge hole. If it gets patched in the draft, then essentially our D looks set longterm, our top 6 forwards look set longterm, and we'd essentially at that point just be looking for a goalie and upgrades throughout the roster.

We have 6 UFA forwards. I think it's a great time to unload most of them before the deadline, let a few of the kids play (Kadri/Frattin specifically), draft high, and try and add in free agency. Plus all the mid to late round draft picks will certainly add to this draft for us, and could pay off 3-5 years from now.

This post is a walking contradiction.

Your premise is that the Leafs need a center and this is their missing piece towards being a 'contender', however, you mention: the need to continue drafting high, 6 UFA forwards (what team only lacking a center has that turnover rate), the apparent need for goaltending and other upgrades (I am assuming this is easy to come by), and expectation of still adding players with a 3-5 year expectation for impact.

For the first time in nearly decade I feel like this team is headed in the right direction.

1. Shed ALL Dead Weight (Connolly/Lombardi) - Run with Kids
2. Sell at the Deadline
3. Draft High in 2013
4. Trade Kessel for Power Forward + Blue Chip Prospect (preferably in Net)

For me, there has been no indication that the Leafs will fill the most important positions: #1 center, #1 d-man, and #1 goaltender, will high-end talent. It's still a huge work in progress.

Also, your concept of 'right direction' is based on premises that we do not know yet. For example:

3) Assumption that the Leafs draft high. I can easily conceive of them just missing the playoffs and landing a pick outside of the top 10.

4) Assumption that the Leafs trade Kessel. I can easily conceive of him walking as a free-agent, or an improper allocation of this new 'cap space' towards Kessel, while failing to then upgrade around him because they keep on the likes of Liles and Grabovski.

I don't think it's as easy to assume the Leafs will do the right thing here -- they haven't been doing that for awhile.

Add a 10th overall and 20th overall pick from next June, along with 2 or 3 2nd rounders, and the foundation gets stronger. Add a solid prospect or two stolen by helping other teams get under the cap, and we may enter July in a position of promise - a young, exciting team on the rise.

Where are you getting these picks, particularly those exact placements?

Where are you getting the notion that the Leafs will take on bad contracts and get solid prospects in return?

This is all hypothetical based on a false assumption that the Leafs use their financial advantage.

Toronto is still Toronto - the "Vatican of Hockey" as an interesting man once stated. A young team on the rise in the bigest hockey market in the world, along with some financial might just be enough to grab a top free agent or two in the summer.

This is irrelevant when you are a losing hockey club and carry the stigma of being a losing hockey club.

What I was pointing to is that are not just one, but many factors that appear to be primed in order to launch the Leafs to that next level - IF they play cards right. Will they? Who knows? (besides, of course, the many "self proclaimed" experts on these boards who are convinced nothing will EVER go the Leafs way, regardless who is running the ship). I don't know ... but I do see that the opportunity is there.

Providing false optimism with a weak foundation built on assumptions is not any better than these "self-proclaimed experts" that you are calling out.

I get the notion of trying to change the status-quo around here, but until any of your hypotheticals come into fruition it is not worth taking seriously.

Rangers trade Redden and a 2nd for a 6th?

How would this help the Leafs?

I doubt MLSE wants to spend their money buying out and paying off other teams mistakes.

How does that make the Leafs better?

Those amnesty buyouts are get out of jail free cards and if not used by some teams there is no loss to incurred other than they go away.

I agree; people are overrating the value of these amnesty buyouts. All they will do is make the likes of the Scott Gomez's of the hockey world free-agents. Players with cap circumventing contracts still have value, at the present. So a team (a smart team) would just trade the player, not buy-out them out. If you want a concrete example, take Luongo. Teams would rather die trying to trade these kinds of players than buy them out.

Not every team has the money to actually use those buy outs.

And not every team has to use those buy outs.

Mind you I am assuming that teams will be able to buy out players acquired via trade.

This is a big assumption and the key point. It wasn't allowed in the past CBA, so why are people assuming and building posts and threads around the possibility of such a provision? In other words, what changes now?

The Leafs can trade for the Rick Dipetrio's of the hockey world all they want and get "top prospects" with him, but unless they can buy out Dipetrio, the realm of possibility goes to zero.

Burke's notion of "trading cap space" also does not do the work here.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Lost in the past few days in the madness,

Leafs are now being coached by a Canadian and the GM is Canadian again.

Recall last year, of the American conspiracy of the Leafs.

Burke and Wilson, 2 Americans running the Leafs.

 

[Drew75]

By the way for all those convinced - "the Leafs will trade their picks", or "They never use their financial might" ...

Nonis is known for keeping his picks, taking a more patient approach. He also during his opening press conference stated 2 interesting things - a) "we need to upgrade at centre", and b) "Teams don't trade big talented centres, the only way you get one is through the draft" .... that is the first time I've heard a Leaf GM say that!

Second ... Nonis is more amenable to signing big contracts than Burke is .,..

Here's hoping.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

By the way for all those convinced - "the Leafs will trade their picks", or "They never use their financial might" ...

Nonis is known for keeping his picks, taking a more patient approach. He also during his opening press conference stated 2 interesting things - a) "we need to upgrade at centre", and b) "Teams don't trade big talented centres, the only way you get one is through the draft" .... that is the first time I've heard a Leaf GM say that!

Second ... Nonis is more amenable to signing big contracts than Burke is .,..

Here's hoping.

8 year new CBA deals, like I said Not only Getzlaf is on the UFA list of C's. This is not a Brad Richards year for UFA's.

Weiss and Zajac are 2 very good top 6 C's that could be top 6 C's on a Cup contender easily. Both bring many intangibles to a team.

Here's hoping we nab 2 of the 3 this offseason.

 

[BlueBaron]

He nullified the Leaf(financial advantage) and had stupid self imposed trade deadlines.The only time he ever used money was to waste it.Wilson extension,Grabo $5.5 million,overpaying for Kessel,signing Komisarek,Connolly,Armstrong etc. and of course paying $7 million for Franson.But not once ever did he put Leaf nation first and use our financial clout to his advantage.His holiday freeze got him a 5th place finish.

Quite frankly, it is time to use that money and lure in star players.If Kessel doesn't want to resign now,launch him and bury one of the worst trades in NHL history.Burke should have seen this coming.He was too reactive and put no forethought into his moves,neither could he assess talent properly.The storm has now passed and the sun is beginning to shine through...

We have earned it,that was one brutal reign.

You mean like getting Kolzig and Lombardi to aquire other assets ? yeah he never did that....

 

[iArts]

Honestly, the only way this can be a perfect storm is if Perry/Getzlaf become available in the summer, and we somehow luck out and get one of them.

 

[BlueBaron]

8 year new CBA deals, like I said Not only Getzlaf is on the UFA list of C's. This is not a Brad Richards year for UFA's.

Weiss and Zajac are 2 very good top 6 C's that could be top 6 C's on a Cup contender easily. Both bring many intangibles to a team.

Here's hoping we nab 2 of the 3 this offseason.

Is Weiss from Ontario ?

 

[Leaf Rocket]

Is Weiss from Ontario ?

yes he is, he's from toronto

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Is Weiss from Ontario ?

Not looking it up, I think he is from Toronto. Real good player, hidden in Florida, so is Zajac. I am not joking, any team that has Getzlaf and a Zajac/Weiss top 6 C and Luongo in net, is well on their way to respectability.

That's quite a core to add to Phanuef and Rielly.

Alex A did it this offseason for the Jays, how about Nonis with capspace if he can add Luongo. All 4 are team leaders also.

 

[leafsfuture]

Burke "Balls"

Nonis "Brains"


Ownership appears to finally understand that bandaid fixes have/will not get this franchise anywhere - and nothing sells better than a winner - nothing would look better on Bell/Rogers resume than to bring a Stanley Cup to the city of Toronto ... talk about the ultimate PR campaign.

They've also already expressed a lot of interest in the potential Star Power that will be available in the Top5 this upcoming draft.

For the first time in nearly decade I feel like this team is headed in the right direction.

1. Shed ALL Dead Weight (Connolly/Lombardi) - Run with Kids
2. Sell at the Deadline
3. Draft High in 2013
4. Trade Kessel for Power Forward + Blue Chip Prospect (preferably in Net)

I hate Tim Connolly, but how is he dead weight? For all we know he could come out and play outstanding on the top line, he has the ability to do so.

What do we have to sell at the deadline? If Lupul can even play at a 60 pt pro-rated pace, we need to keep him, and if we trade Bozak than down the middle we potentially get killed down the middle

And for trading Kessel, lets look at "blue chip" GK prospects: Vasilevski, Subban, Lehner, Gibson, then maybe guys like Visentin, Lundstrom (the Swedish WJC goalie), Markstrom. We aren't trading with Boston, Ottawa. Anaheim doesnt need Kessel so rule out Gibson.

That leaves Andrei Vasilevski, who is 18, far from a guarantee to be a star in the NHL, and that isnt even including the Russian factor. Oh yeah, Yzerman isnt giving him up easy either.

Easy for someone to say "trade Kessel for blue chip prospect + PWF" but was every fan fails to understand is that there are rarely ever teams with both our needs whoa are willint to deal

 

[Bedards Dad]

i believe Burke wanted Luongo to much to make the playoffs and was willing to trade some prospects/picks for him. MLSE has seen that show before with Kessel being a laughing stock of the NHL and doesn't want to go down that road again so thats why he got canned. i hope this means were going to get a good draft pick here and stay the course instead of doing something as stupid as trading kadri gardiner and rielly for luongo.

You sir need some punctuation, this post could mean 2 completely different things.


I however disagree and thing Burke was unwilling to pay, in combination with his demeanor (which i had no issue with)

 

[Sokil]

Somebody (maybe Nonis)is going to come in and look like a hero with the foundation Burke has laid.

What foundation? We don't even have a core

With the buyouts / UFAs coming up over the next year, we're literally starting from scratch

 

[Bedards Dad]

What foundation? We don't even have a core

With the buyouts / UFAs coming up over the next year, we're literally starting from scratch

See everyone, this is what it is like to be blind.

 

[Cor]

What foundation? We don't even have a core

With the buyouts / UFAs coming up over the next year, we're literally starting from scratch

Kessel, Phaneuf, Rielly, Gardiner, Lupul, JVR, Grabo, Kadri, Frattin....

Yup, we have no foundation what so ever

 

[Sokil]

Kessel, Phaneuf, Rielly, Gardiner, Lupul, JVR, Grabo, Kadri, Frattin....

Yup, we have no foundation what so ever

I said Kessel...

JVR and Grabo are 2nd line centers, Kadri is a bust, Frattin is a bust/4th line fodder, Gardiner is 2nd pairing material. Phaneuf is a bum.

No. Core. Just a few support players.

 

[Sokil]

See everyone, this is what it is like to be blind.

Blindness is liking our pathetic roster and "beleafing" in some sort of respectable performance. Way to overrate one of the League's worst teams, gosh.

 

[Badger Mayhew*]

I said Kessel...

JVR and Grabo are 2nd line centers, Kadri is a bust, Frattin is a bust/4th line fodder, Gardiner is 2nd pairing material. Phaneuf is a bum.

No. Core. Just a few support players.

So much stupidity in this post

 

[Cor]

I said Kessel...

JVR and Grabo are 2nd line centers, Kadri is a bust, Frattin is a bust/4th line fodder, Gardiner is 2nd pairing material. Phaneuf is a bum.

No. Core. Just a few support players.

JVR isn't a center, and 2nd line players can be apart of your foundation... Kadri is 21, and is about PPG in the AHL, so no not a bust. Your Frattin comment makes you look stupid, Phaneuf is not a "bum" he is a top pairing d-man on almost every team, and Gardiner has all-star potential.

Checkmate